Disaster at the docks is our urgent concern because “me-too financial media” doesn’t have Clue #1 about economics. While the government offers lots of “Offishul figgers” we like to run parallel private indicators. So this morning, a quick glance over in that direction as we spool up toward holiday madness. With less than a week … Read more
I suppose we should begin this morning’s roll by unveiling the new Consumer Price report just out from Labor: “The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last … Read more
Election Day-After Limbo is a dandy time for this topic; voters have spoken and will change follow? (No) The general topic around here this week has been “How many people” are really needed in a company? There are several ways to approach the problem: Big picture, sampling of various companies by sector, and even building up … Read more
When there is a “known” event of major magnitude on the way, markets often hint in advance what to expect. This is most often done with price changes. Markets running up ahead of an event are called “Buy the rumor” and the decline following is often labeled the “Sell the news” aspect. With (at best) … Read more
If the first Industrial Revolution was water and steam power, while the second has been electricity and network-pushed, what will NEXT look like? It’s not a silly question, at all. And since the World may fall apart based on global economic consequences of War, Sanctions, Asset-Stripped Money, and little side issues like a die-off and … Read more
When there is talk of nukes flashing off, the one critical vulnerability you will already need to have hedged is electricity. People don’t generally consider how utterly reliant the world is on electricity. Even more so in the past five-years, or so, as the iniquitous “wall warts” have become the USB charging ports on damn … Read more
Wherein we look at a nearly 800-point increase in the Dow and wonder “WTF?” There was no driving news, the Fed will still meet and raise rates. The Davos crowd is still pressing for its Global Reset to scam World Government into being. AND we still see gasoline prices rising this week. While “down here … Read more
Won’t mince today: The longer-term view of long wave economics offers the uncomfortable idea that not only will the Biden (denied so far) recession get worse, but the odds of full-on Depression are skyrocketing, as well. As this happens, my consigliere’s Warm-Up Wars will multiply such that we can only see World War III when the outcome … Read more
A number of our readers did very well in the market action yesterday. Our own (little) account was up a shade over 3-percent, which was nice, too. But it reminded me there’s an underlying theme to how we trade that most people don’t have the patience to work out. “One of these days, I need … Read more
Oh-oh! Into Prospect Theory (PT), Cumulative Prospect Theory (*CPT) and whether investment choices are driven by quantum bounding or, conversely, give rise to it? A little early to “go heavy and deep” but over the past couple of weeks a strangelet of quantumness has been nagging at me. Specifically, how free choice may indeed be … Read more
BUT first: NY Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Data just out: “Business activity declined modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell eight points to -9.1. New orders, unfilled orders, and shipments were all little changed from last month. Delivery … Read more
Delightful email from back-up consigliere out in Century City overnight. Sizing up the Thursday market action “Just vacuuming up the sucker money. Dow erases 500 point loss, surges into huge gain in rollercoaster day..” With a link to Wall Street rollercoaster: Dow erases 500 point loss, surges into huge gain. Running out the Bears to run, anyone? … Read more
Hard not to be in a festive mood: This is the Good Side of Inflation reports! This is the day we told you was coming – the day when not only do Consumer Prices come out (yuck, right?) but also the day the new – higher – Social Security Payments lock-in. As we told you … Read more