Tiny Bouncer? Weighing Out Trade, Creeping Madness

After the not wholly unexpected market decline Monday, there’s not really much to say about what happens next.  Early futures revealed a slip and slide downward was possible, although, with Gold up $8 bucks early, and the dollar down proportionately, we wouldn’t be surprised if this wasn’t a small half-day (or better) rally.  Futures were back to breaking even and into the green with 90-minutes to the open.

Thing is, if you take Eliott wave and trend channel theory even half-seriously, you’ll suspect that the move down of about 73 points on the S&P 500 Monday was likely only a small wave 1 of a large 1 of (3) down.

The Gospel of Market sniping tells us to anticipate a wave 2 up at some point.  And from that a wave 3 down.

But it really goes much, much deeper than that.  The waves in play now MIGHT be our long-awaited beginning of a Larger Wave 1 of a Still Bigger Wave III down.

Let’s go with that for a second.

Wave Counts Reveal Future?

Oftentimes, yes, they do.

Waves can all be reduced to spreadsheets based on average percentages of declines.  Pick a starting wave, look precisely at the range of outcomes, and suddenly a statistical prospect is revealed.  Like those certain conditions at the craps table, if you play.

Let’s take such a (hypothetical) spreadsheet and plug in (as our first (a) part of Wave (1) of III down being the Monday decline.  How far down could this initial move go?  To finish the smaller 1 of III.

Somewhere in the coming week, or two, therefore, we MIGHT trad down into the Wave V Possibilities above.

The Problem Is???

This is only the (a) down wave.  Understanding waves “nest” (one within another, in recursive macro-like structures), we can then take the Wave V outlook from above and estimate that for a Wave III (1) target.  Like this:

With this approach, we can look ahead a way and offer that the Wave (1) down of III Down around 3,538 (green box, right).

THEN to get to the “How bad could Wave III down really be?” we plug our Wave V at this level and assume this is how the larger (1) down of III could end.

Again, we take the Wave V and move it over into the first leg down and what happens?

Taken as a whole, then, we MIGHT not be surprised if, before all is said and done, that the Large Wave III could turn into something really fierce.  S&P 2,600?

EXCEPT, this isn’t how you assemble the Wave view, but we’ll show you subscribers a more realistic outlook on the Peoplenomics side tomorrow.

This?  Well, an example of how even a single trading day – like the Monday blow-down – can offer a huge collection of insights into our financial future.  This is also a process which can be applied to human behaviors and lots of other aspects of life.  The obvious limiting factor is the reliability of what would be – in DSP theory – your analog to digital converter.

No A/D conversion needed with financial data.  Political waffle making, interpersonal behaviors?  Experience builds and A/D convert (analog) into each of us over time.  When something is off kilter?  You “get a sense of things” which can be really good, or really, really bad.

Topic tomorrow on PN is “Faith as an Asset” – and it’s a key “rippler-into-future” that is under attack right now.

Trade Modeling

Trade figures are always complicated to sort out.  Some of the Reasons why?

  • To begin, when the Dollar is strong, it takes fewer dollars to buy overseas goods.  Looks like prices dropped.
  • But when prices rise it takes more dollars.
  • When prices fall it takes less.
  • And the whole frigging chinchilla doesn’t have anything to do with how much shit America’s really buying because all we get are the “dollarized versions” of data.  Easier than counting widgets.

With these asterisks in place, you’re now ready to read this morning’s dollarized and distorted gobbledygook trade report:

“DECEMBER 6, 2022 — The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in October, up $4.0 billion from $74.1 billion in September, revised.”

Oh, it gets worse:

October exports were $256.6 billion, $1.9 billion less than September exports. October imports were $334.8 billion, $2.2 billion more than September imports.
The October increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $6.1 billion to $99.6 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $2.1 billion to $21.4 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $136.9 billion, or 19.9 percent, from the same period in 2021. Exports increased $415.3 billion or 19.8 percent. Imports increased $552.2 billion or 19.8 percent

Too early to assess the market direction, but our money is on a rally developing today, making this a minor league “Turnaround Tuesday”.  Which Ure will sit out in the “day trading penalty box” because we would never plop down $25 grand and trust the House is good for it and trade our way into financial heaven.  Thanks, trailer in the woods is fine.  How much is enough, really?

Last week’s data from the Association of American Railroads, by the way, says a great deal about widget counts:

“For the first 47 weeks of 2022, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 10,892,805 carloads, up 0.2 percent from the same point last year; and 12,298,102 intermodal units, down 4.8 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 47 weeks of 2022 was 23,190,907 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 2.5 percent compared to last year.”

Which blows a hole through common bullshit “growth” assertions…

Global Mental Collapse

Outside of Markets, Trade, and the missing $65 trillion dollars (‘Huge, Missing and Growing:’ $65 Trillion in Dollar Debt Sparks Concern (yahoo.) we find a few stories this morning suggesting mental illness is communicable via the Internet.

Stories catching our eye included Disney closes iconic 33-year-old theme park ride that it now calls racist – TheBlaze.  Splash Mountain?  Seriously?

But wait, there’s more!  The madness of the ‘15-minute city’  which deals with Oxford, England’s plan to punish people for moving around too much.  File under “Green turns Mean.”  Watch Jim Kunstler for reaction.

Crazies Need to Silence Musk

Pretty obvious to us that Elon Musk is a more ballsy American patriot than most locally born people, what with his outing of the FedGov censorship program ahead of the 2020 election that likely aced Trump out of a second term.  Consequently? Musk Admits ‘Quite Significant’ Risk of Assassination (theepochtimes.com)

But there are other means for The Powers to handle such inconvenient truths (as this Hunter debacle).  For example, Musk’s Neuralink faces federal probe, employee backlash over animal tests. Cue the PTB paid agitators?

Slop Jar Headlines

Joe goes West to promo a foreign-owned chip plant.  Nice.  TSMC Plans $40 Billion U.S. Investment As President Biden Visits Arizona Chip Factory | The Olympian.  Ties us more into Taiwan.

White House stonewalling is still the plan for what one could label the Biden “crime family problem.”  Jean-Pierre calls ‘Twitter files’ revelations about censorship of Hunter Biden laptop story a ‘distraction that is full of old news’ – TheBlaze

Democrat election jiggering is expected to continue.  Why the DNC Can’t Kill the New Hampshire Primary | Time.  Meanwhile, we figure dems will win the Georgia run-off today by hook or by crook…

Consumer victory – kind of:  Hertz agrees to pay $168 million to settle charges it falsely accused customers of car theft (consumeraffairs.com).  Question now is how to get their criminal records cleaned up in computer systems?

Another interesting “crypto night” passes: Former Barclays plc boss Bob Diamond and stablecoin issuer Circle ditch US$9bn reverse merger.  And, did you see where there’s an AI BTC price forecast? Machine learning algorithm sets Bitcoin price for December 31, 2022 (finbold.com).  Color us skeptical and familiar with the limitations of computing.  Still, dueling AIs could be fun, huh?

Passings: Emmy Winner Kirstie Alley Of ‘Cheers’ Fame Dies After Battle With Cancer.

ATR: Attacks on Free Speech

With all the revelations about Twitter being under the FBI’s thumb prior to the 2020 election (sham), we think it’s very instructive to notice how the liberal congress is working its way towards “news control” of social media.

A good read-in is found in Facebook threatens to ban news in the US over journalism bill – The Verge.

Back in the earliest times of the Internet, I took a look at information platforms, what’s now half a century of news chasing, my membership in professional organizations (like the National Society of Newspaper Columnists) and a solid grounding in press rights and copyright before launching UrbanSurvival.

The decision then – now a quarter of a century back – was that we could not engage in content rip-offs.  When we author comment on a news item, it is usually with a link from a source’s own RSS feed or from search engine work.

The problem, for those of us who do actual writing for a living, is that content rip-off is a common thing these days.  Doubtless some outfits just cut code to trace back RSS sources, then copy and paste content into their own feeds and pretend that’s “news.”  No, that’s theft.

Thing is when people cut and paste major (and entire) portions of stories – beyond a simple RSS level, or the levels used to generate search engine results, then social media platforms really do cross a line of monetizing the content of others.

Point here is to keep an eye on how this evolves.  Setting up your own (off social) news sources is a really good idea.  If you don’t know of a good one, remember we keep a news sources page over here UrbanSurvival Business News Links Center which we can add to, or expand. Recommendations are welcome.

Thing is that most people don’t have much training in what’s “fair comment” and what’s “stealing of work.”  Which is why so many links appear in our reports.  We want you to go to sources and inspect what they’re reporting in depth.

For now, we don’t see any problem with posting RSS (or search style) links.  But keep an eye out for tech companies that are in the wholesale rip-off business.  Wholesale copying of copyrighted works should be a no-no.  But, search and RSS titles with links is another thing, entirely.

Keep an eye on the Meta whining.  And avoid websites that post whole sections of copy of key stories.  Those sites may be looking for a free ride, and enterprising news organizations should be protected.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

Feds Pre-Bunked Hunter L/T, Meandering Markets

WHAT???!!!

No mention of the Hunter Biden revelations about Social Media and the FBI  on the front page of the big DC paper this morning?

But you already knew that, right?  Huge story in the tech-competent thinking class, though.  Language matters:  Stonewall Idiom Definition (grammarist.com)  With good reason…

Miranda Devine of the New York Post is out with a shocker we already knew about.  Still, worth a read, though:  FBI warned Twitter of Hunter Biden ‘hack’ before censoring The Post.

Yes, if you read Ms. Devine’s lovely exposé book “Laptop from Hell” we think you’ll enjoy watching the detail pieces all fall into place.  It’s a really interesting read of Pop’s world; in a pass the crack and skip the condoms kind of way.

We have no doubt nothing will happen of any consequence, though.  That’s because the political will of the American people has been subverted from the highest levels via social media.

Remember: this is only the Twitter part of social.  We’d propose that a person would have to be an imbecile to think this kind of police state tactic wasn’t applied to others in the discredited social realms.

Who else is (was) dirty going into 2020?

Our longstanding aversion to social media participation continues looking like a sound business judgement.

Left defenders, like the NY Times which hasn’t been, in our view, exactly even-handed in their Hunter revelations, is left twirling in the wind trying to paper over the latest Elon Musk Twitter spin stories. Elon Musk and Matt Taibbi Set Off Debate Over Release of Twitter Files. When the lies fail, diss the messengers, is it?

Attacking the messenger is a long-term play.  The left-wing Gestapo is very clear what will happen to Musk if he got out of line.  Three weeks back we nabbed this on Poynter: PolitiFact: Is Elon Musk under federal investigation? Here’s what we know.  The aware will appreciate MediaBiasFactCheck rates Poynter are among least biased, so good chance reports of the administration pulling (puppet) strings to take Musk off the table are credible.

Beyond Our Borders

There are further reasons to believe the Hunter debacle is just getting started.

Remember how Musk got sideways with the Ukraine War choir?  Questioning why there weren’t talks?  And even as recently as last week, the Buyed ‘Em administration was setting preconditions on any Ukraine talks with Russia like “Give back everything in the Crimea and walk back” which drew an immediate “Are you shitting us?” from Moscow.

Another “national security” problem is what’s going on in Brazil, where it’s widely held that the Bolsonaro election was torpedoed with Bidenista help. Did Twitter influence Brazil’s elections? Elon Musk says so | South America (republicworld.com)

But, turns out, Musk may have another shell left in his double (if not triple) barrel data shotgun.

Details matter as you read Elon Musk Says He’s Seen ‘Concerning’ Tweets About Brazil Election | Tech News.

Against this background, we would not be surprised if the PowersThatBe decided to take out a “hit” on Musk.  The Bidenistas need theHunter stuff to go away.  Not let Bolsonaro  Fix-Out or the Ukraine Manipulation get out.  Apparently, Musk senses it, too.  The headline Elon Musk baffles Twitter with out-of-nowhere warning that he’s ‘not suicidal’ – Daily Star doesn’t baffle smart people at all.

Smart people respectfully file this story as a followup/tickler note the “The Tree of Liberty Must be Watered with the Blood of Patriots” file.

Revelations keep dropping, though: Former FBI Lawyer Who Approved FISA Warrant To Spy On Trump (also) Helped Censor Hunter Biden Laptop Story | The Daily Caller.

Has the southern border been left open long enough for South American style politics to take root in the once great America?

History Replays: Rhymes & Times

When we look at the longer span of history, we come up with one of those “word matching” puzzles as the best mental exercise faced with revelations ongoing.  Connect historical concepts in the left column with present day rhymes in the right column.

Just as the German people were whipped into a Messianic trance with the speeches by a young Adolph Hitler, railing against the crooked Weimar, so too messianic personalities have been railing a lot lately.  Especially a former president who wants his job back.  Trump Demands America Rip Up the Constitution, Make Him President from Rolling Stone.

Trump does have a case, now that Elon Musk is doing data dumps proving democrat controlled social media manipulation.  But you’re not supposed to “remember Jack” about Twitter, right?

Notice the “usual suspects” on the Left are doing what they love most: turning hate Trump into an ongoing threat to America.  The media, being too largely liberal has been quick to band wagon. Take, for instance: CBS’s Brennan Grills GOP Rep. Turner: Is Calling For The Suspension Of The Constitution Disqualifying For Trump 2024 Candidacy? Nope.  First you need a law

What concerns us about Trump’s demands on Truth social is that there is no likely path to throw out a tainted election (2020 was tainted, right?) and get to a new election any faster than the Calendar will get us to the 2024 debacle, anyway.  We don’t tolerate puffery any better than buffoonery.

What Trump should do – to save the Nation and his own prospects in ’24 – is to champion cleanup of voting in every state in the union.  All votes going back to paper with no computers, audit trails restored, and all counting done by midnight on Election Day.  Have mail in voting cut-off with final Post Office deliveries when the polls close.  If people can manage their calendar, should they even vote?

Instead, we believe that anything connected to the internet can be hacked and likely has been.  Take Bitcoin and the crypto mess, for example, please.

I mean, this is all great theater, and it feeds corporate leftwing media and such, but it smells worse than feedlot bullshit at every turn.  Makes it tough for us three remaining rational people to keep up squared-away thinking, know what I’m saying?

Impact on Markets, PP

The Second Depression began November 8, 2021.  Which is when our Aggregate Index hit an all-time high, and so did Bitcoin, a bit over $68,000.  the political nightmare hasn’t come together yet:  two political parties are still vying for power rather than who’s going to be left holding the steamy bag of shit when the new day dawns.  Pelosi was smart to take a hike while her getting was good.  Don’t let the door…

The onset of Depression II has been slow enough that you might not notice, but the reason Elaine and I invest in farm tools more than tech, and bullets more than bytes, is the early realization that overall stocks are down about 25 percent while digital assets are mostly down more than 70 percent.

Among the most crooked and criminal there will come a point when blowing up the system to cover-up their crimes will become useful.  Which is when you want to be prepped and outside the 100-mile blast radius from major (target) cities.  Going too fast for you?

If your plan to buy a better life isn’t based on these economic realities, like Wars follow Depressions, some quiet time with history books to ponder shared Future may be in order.

Speaking of futures, here’s where we were earlier this morning from where D2 began:

I won’t belabor the “Discussion Point” – that was Subscriber’s Only content on our Peoplenomics website.

What we will do is remind you this is what a guillotine looks like in the “ready to fall” moment.  Because Third Waves is where most of the violence to the downside happens (with a small asterisk about how in Commodities, Fifth Waves can be much worse than a horrific Third).

Which makes the worst of the worst the Third of the Third of the Third.  Which we expected by now, but we’re PP (patient and pragmatic).

Good News: No Bank Runs

At least, not for another year, maybe.

Instead, we are using digital proxies to work through some of that energy.  Bitcoin clawed back to $17,400 overnight.  Makes it down ONLY 75 percent since D2 began.

Long ago, I parted ways with a former colleague who told me I should make the price of my Peoplenomics newsletter subscriptions 10 Bitcoins.  I declined, explaining that Bitcoin was a con and I wanted nothing to do with them.  I later heard he’d eventually came to his senses – a good thing.  All is forgiven. Life goes on.

Now, years later, what do we see?  Blackrock CEO on FTX Collapse: Most Crypto Companies Aren’t Going to Be Around – Featured Bitcoin News.  Our position from the get-go.

Cryptocurrencies are a New World Religion.  Once some people “touch the money of God” they just can’t stop looking for converts.  Oh, look: Tim Draper predicts bitcoin will reach $250,000 despite FTX collapse (cnbc.com).  He’d previously predicted we’d be there this month.  But, as with all religions, getting the time and place right’s a bitch.

Life’s bottom line is to get to the long-term outlook on Future as early as possible and then plan accordingly.  Remember what I said about 100-mile blast radiuses and firestorm planning?

Not Just Crypto Blowing Up

My consigliere called in with a hot tip about financial cancer metastasizing.  “Did you see how a Reverse Mortgage Company has gone belly-up?” Starwood-Backed Reverse Mortgage Originator Files for Bankruptcy (wsj.com) with more details at [Updated] RMF files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, lays off 500 workers – Reverse Mortgage Daily.

For now, this is part of another financial problem on the rise: Reverse mortgage volume, HMBS issuance fell further in November.

Neither he (tax attorney/CPA) nor I have gone through the typical paperwork involved in a reverse mortgage to figure out who’s going to get screwed.  One way the paper might work is like in any other default, if the reverse mortgage seller (in effect a home buyer) defaults, does the property revert to the seller if the payments stop?  How many payments can the reverse mortgage company miss before there’s a breach?  That kind of thing.

Bottom line is? How long will reverse mortgage payments keep coming IF the mortgage costs more than the (declining) seller’s net due to rising rates?  And what happens when the Fed goes a 1/2 percent or more hike next week?

This is a godawful economics problem for a lot of seniors that we haven’t seen in the AARP newspaper yet, so far as we’ve noticed, but we’ll keep an eye out.

Chorus of Sand in the Vaseline?

Newsposal

Throw in the headlines and let’s turn it on!

This could be a Terrorism Test Run, so listen up:  Moore County: FBI joins investigation into North Carolina power outage caused by ‘intentional’ attacks on substations | CNN

Yes, it was a bioweapon.  How many times do you have to learn this?  Wuhan Whistleblower: Former EcoHealth VP Says Covid “Man Made”, Escaped From Lab | ZeroHedge

Expect more “Electile Dysfunction” on major news channels Wednesday morning: Herschel Walker’s Chances of Beating Warnock, 24 Hours Before Runoff (newsweek.com)

NATO is in trouble and could “hit the skids” sooner than later.  Watch two angles to this:  Macron’s new security architecture opens Pandora’s Box in NATO politics – EURACTIV.com and Should Sweden Forget About Joining NATO? | American Enterprise Institute.

No surprise, really: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq set to open lower as jobs reports indicates more Fed hikes.

ATR: Looking Ahead

We’re all going to the future in a second, so why not?

Peoplenomics this week will cover a fascinating conversation I had with a doctor friend.  “Faith as an Asset” is my main writing project after breakfast.

Zeus the Cat continues to improve.  Although still skinny, the basic “barn cat protocol” administered with hand feeding and pools of rainwater have helped to the point he’s back to sleeping on the furniture again.  Enough energy to leap up is a good thing.

The Barn Cat protocol ((this is NOT medical advice, I’m a quack!)) is based on my observation that worms or kidneys are the biggest cat threat in the Outback.  Getting a full teaspoon of dewormer into him over a day and some Vet’s Best Cat Urinary Tract Support Chewables, seems to have worked.  We assume you’ve done the distemper shots?

Elaine loves the new e-massage station we cobbled up.  Especially the foot massage machine.  Dandy!  ShopTalk Sunday details a couple of weeks back.

Shop work:  Got the front fence fixed where the garbage truck had misjudged the turn-around.  Plans to expand the garden are well underway now.  Got my guest room sheetrock ceiling patches underway, as well.  Good to break multiple projects work up into one-hour blocks.  Keeps things interesting and nonlinear.

George’s Office Upgrades are arriving this week:  Going over to a quantum OLED display for easier-on-the-eyes writing, a new Zotac video card so I can dial in the 40 Hz refresh rate for reasons you can imply from reading this. Which makes super-sense if you have an AopE4 gene. And a walking treadmill to keep the pounds off and the old man in motion shows up, too.  Still pondering the office arrangement, though.  It gets complicated.

Jeez, could this morning’s column get any longer?

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net