Crash Odds Down Slightly – Tax Robotics?

On  the Peoplenomics side of the house, we will be taking on a very complicated subject in the ChartPack tomorrow:   How much of our contradictory signals in the economy right now can be traced back to corporate tax reform?

And while THAT debate (and modeling) continue, there’s the matter of the coming jobs collapse thanks to robotics.  One of our astute readers caught the headline “Introduce robot tax, or face massive economic disruption warn lawyers” and was kind enough to pass it along.

The problem with robotics (*and factory automation of any sort) is that it displaces workers.  Remember, when HUMANS work, they generate income taxes, payments into Labor and Industries, they buy (at legal gunpoint) insurance…and the list goes on.  Right down to buying a car and gas, oil, tires etc. to commute.  Robotics?  Nope.  Screws everyone.

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To be sure, there is likely some level of power tool use that could be logically argued against.

Take the construction worker putting a deck on a house;  Should they pay a tax on the power screw-gun, for example?  No, obviously not.

BUT, if half the UAW rank and file in Detroit are displaced by robots on the production line, shouldn’t there be some quid pro quo from the Factory Owners who just removed several thousand primary jobs – not to mention going out to tertiary jobs  (day care workers, quickie-mart people selling coffee and doughnuts in the morning) perhaps 10’s of thousands?

These jobs – the ones being replaced by ROBOTICS are not apparent now – because we are in the OVERLAP BOOM.  This is where the factories still have workers – but only until the machines get dialed in.  Right now, though, workers plus robot builders.  But then what?

They’re toast in the longer-term.

But:  How to tax?

The Internet as a prototype:

This “tax robotics” question actually has one of its roots in how things are taxed on the Internet.

Don’t know if you noticed, but a group of republicans are trying to shove a “net sales tax” through.  And, honestly, it’s not a bad idea.

It’s a terrible idea.

The problem is one we’re familiar with because we actually do pay sales tax on our Internet information product ( for those sales in the state of Texas.

Should our subscribers in Switzerland pay sales tax?  Or, those who live in a state without a sales tax – like Oregon?

Would it bother us to pay sales tax on all states?

Depends how it is structured.

If we were to pay sales taxes based on our tax home (Texas), no big deal.  Press button (*6-3/4%) and write the check.  Increase subscription cost from $40 to $45 to cover it all.  Ebd of story.

Here’s where the (stupid) GOP gets it wrong:  Should I, as an internet-based “product” producer, have to pay “sales tax” to New York?

The (dimwits) will argue yes, if the product is consumed in New York, but remember, Peoplenomics is a news/information product.  Enter the Freedom of Speech issue.

For now, New York lays it out this way in this tax advisory  (Tax Bulletin ST-620 (TB-ST-620)):

“If you sell publications that qualify as newspapers or periodicals for sales tax purposes, you don’t need to charge sales tax because they’re exempt. “

So, let’s see how the dimwits roll with this one:  It’s arguable we shouldn’t even pay sales tax in Texas, but we do, because we don’t begrudge the government its slice.

The problem is when I start up my next company – let’s call it Chester Industrie – and we begin to sell online some incredibly neat products.  If the dimwits get their way, I would end up having to do sales tax filings in 50-states under their plan.

Better:  Sales taxes should be based on the point of manufacture, or if in reselling (Amazon et all) then based on the point of shipping.  Amazon has warehousing in Texas already and charges sales tax here.

One company, one location?  Taxes to one state – not 50.

Would this tend to drive business to lower (sales tax) cost states?  Duh.

Why, hell YES!  And you’d begin to see some long-overdue restructuring of America – the decentralization that has led to lemming and demagogue politics.  The free-lunchers.  Only way to teach ’em a thing, or three, is to cut ’em off at their pocketbooks.

I’ve been through this on the local sales tax side.  Eventually, cities like, Seattle, start to drive out new business with their exorbitant local option sales taxes..,.

And if you really want to see some of the worst taxes in the country, look at the metropolitan utility districts of Texas. Gawd-awful.

Anyway, since I may get Chester Industrie going, it’s laughable to see the dimwits trying to deal their own broke states into another tax and spend scheme.

When government wants to “expand it’s partnership role” with tax grabs like this – instead of taxing the human job-killing machines upstream…it shows you how little these people – many of whom have never worked a day in their sorry lives in the Real World – know about the country they are pretending to govern.  Around the corner and up your tax, types.

(Hmmm…anyone I haven’t offended yet?)

Where was we….ah…over here:

Housing Starts

Just out from Census this morning:

If you prefer verbose?  (*Boy, did YOU come to the right place, or what?)

Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,298,000. This is 5.7 percent (±0.7 percent) below the revised January rate of 1,377,000, but is 6.5 percent (±2.4 percent) above the February 2017 rate of 1,219,000. Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 872,000; this is 0.6 percent (±0.9 percent)* below the revised January figure of 877,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 385,000 in February.

Housing Starts Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,236,000. This is 7.0 percent (±16.7 percent)* below the revised January estimate of 1,329,000 and is 4.0 percent (±12.2 percent)* below the February 2017 rate of 1,288,000. Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 902,000; this is 2.9 percent (±10.8 percent)* above the revised January figure of 877,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 317,000.

Housing Completions Privately-owned housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,319,000. This is 7.8 percent (±14.8 percent)* above the revised January estimate of 1,224,000 and is 13.6 percent (±16.0 percent)* above the February 2017 rate of 1,161,000. Single-family housing completions in February were at a rate of 895,000; this is 3.0 percent (±10.6 percent)* above the revised January rate of 869,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 418,000. “

I’d look for things to remain somewhat even-keeled until we see if the market will allow the Fed to raise any more this year.

They’re between a rock and a hard spot next week for the FOMC because it’s great to have a bubbly stock market and repatriation of Apple dough from the Tax Reform sounds good – and sure, let’s clean off the balance sheet at all…

But, how long in all this money flood back to the US before some foreign bank bites the big one and sets off the Global Panic?  We shall see.


While waiting for the industrial production and utilization report things were slightly red.

I look for the market to be somewhat down – toward the close.

Meantime, we see the old Dow record 26,616 and change is STILL 350-points from a new high by our 55-day mark.

As of this morning, though, the odds of another year of upside are about even.  The risk the Crash repeats right here, right now is 52.5% using my incredibly convoluted way of thinking.

What could drive it?


You should keep tabs on the story about how the US is now, for the first time, blaming the Russians for attacks on the US power grid.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see some REAL Russian hacker prowess demonstrated in response.  A kind of “No, if we had, it would feel like this…” from Putski et al.  Telling you, having worked with Ukrainian contract programmers, you’d be hard-pressed to find better in Seattle, for example.

They aren’t “good” – they’re awesome and not to be trifled with.

Sometimes, I think the whole pseudo-battle over Ukraine was less about the warm water port than about software HR…Eastern Europe (Poland east) is hot with grand programmers.

Oh, sure, and Chinese spoofing the ruskies, too.  Plausible de-what-ability?

More at Feds: Russian Hackers Are Attacking U.S. Power Plants.

I checked with our source warhammer – a former oak leafy type  – who’s active in this area:

No surprise here.  It’s been a poorly kept secret that much of America’s critical internet-based infrastructure has been compromised since the get-go.

I was involved in a meeting back in 2000 in which the National Security Agency expressed concern that systems once analog, which had network tech overlaid upon them (e.g. power and water distribution systems), had exploitable flaws which were totally unknown.  The rub was how to identify those security flaws.  Essentially, the answer is to pay hackers to find them.

Russia, China, the Norks and Israel all seem to have done precisely this.  In effect, the Internet boom of the 90s was a modern equivalent of a Trojan Horse.  We’ve since fully embraced an initially non-secure technology, trying to overlay security on top when it should have been baked-in in the first place.  But adding security made networking difficult, less marketable.  So we fully accepted pumping out innovation with exploitable flaws.  Sadly, history shows there is a  price to be paid for such narrow-mindedness.

I fully believe Putin could turn elements of American infrastructure dark with the proverbial flip of a switch.  That is quite dramatic, so instead, the mere threat of doing so provides negotiating power.

This is the anvil hanging over technology’s head.  It is not as secure as we hope and are often led to believe.”

And when comes to “bit-measuring” contests between Trump and Putin, let’s just say those could be a stormy sessions.

Speaking of Which

See the George Nader story in the Sacto Bee.  They headline “Mueller witness is convicted pedophile with shadowy past.”

Reward POOR Performance?

Deutsche Bank boosts bonuses to 2.3 billion euros despite bigger 2017 loss.

Gotta send them my resume – I can piss money away like crazy and I don’t even need a co-CEO to help.

Awrightthen – Moron Monday!

One Week to Market Crash?

I will make it really, really simple for you in case you haven’t paid attention:  I’ve been mentioning the possibility of a stock market crash on (or around) March 22 for about a month, now.

It’s not all that had to figure.

It was 55- calendar days from the market highs in early September 1929 until the brown stuff that smells bad hit the rotator back when.  We may be set to replay that pattern – in spades.

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If you are skeptical, let me line up some of the data for you.  Take it nice & easy, though, because when you see it, you might become afraid.  Very, very afraid.  Cocktail napkin and some colored pencils, please?

In economic research, based on historical change work of people like Marchetti and Odlyzko, I’ve come to the simple but dangerously non-Keynesian view that periodic booms and busts are the result of progress.

When an old technology is bubbling along – and and a new technology comes along – there is the period of time when things overlap.  A great boom ensues.  We’re there now, but it will end.

This isn’t the first time.  It happened before in 1929 when mechanization of agriculture and mass media caused high demand for workers in the midst of the Roaring Twenties.  When the process unwound, Herbert Hoover was stuck “holding the bag” and what we called the Great Depression followed.

The ONLY issue in my research is whether our present-day “echo” of the stock market collapse of 1929 is presently replaying the “left shoulder” area of the following chart.  If we’re on the left shoulder, there’s a case for one more year of Roaring Twenties analog for Trump plays Hoover.  OR, we’re at the cusp of the “right shoulder” collapse now, in which case, it will become apparent in a month, or so.  Perhaps starting next Thursday.

Here’s one of the most telling charts from the Peoplenomics side of the house – updated with the closing data from Wednesday trading:

Of course there’s a third outcome possible; that we are not going to gracefully replay either case but will do some kluge of past events.  Which would be fine.  Keeps the game interesting.

Meantime, however, we need to talk about “investor confidence.”

Trump’s Poor Kudlow Pick

Markets are still pondering the departure of Gary Cohn from the White House on the economics side.  His replacement is Larry Kudlow – and frankly, it’s perhaps the worst hire Trump has made so far.  Looking at Kudlow’s resume from Wikipedia?

“Kudlow graduated from University of Rochester in Rochester, New York with a degree in history in 1969.[4] Known as “Kuddles” to friends, he was a star on the tennis team and a member of the left-wing Students for a Democratic Society at Rochester.

In 1971, Kudlow attended Princeton University‘s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, where he studied politics and economics. He left before completing his master’s degree.”

So a Clinton protégé and a lefty in school?  Other than media presence, I’m not seeing a ham sandwich here.

Gad zooks! You can’t be a freakin’ moderate/left dilatant and “get it.”  For openers, go read Andrew Odlyzko’s ENTIRE financial bubble page here – and all the papers.  Then, maybe, you’ll WTFU and see it.  Ure is not alone – at least entirely.

Now let’s talk consumption.  Nothing happens until people buy things.

The Federal Reserve’s latest on Consumer Debt (G.19 data) rolled this way:

“In January, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4-1/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5-1/2 percent. “

(Revolving debt is credit cards.  Nonrevolving is basically mobile homes and school loans.)

But that was only the bleeding edge of the bad news:  Retail Sales out Wednesday flat-out sucked wind:

And then, if this wasn’t big enough disaster waiting to happen (a consequence of under-spending on R&D resulting in no new “gotta-have-it” products), we have the “darling of the Digital Tulip Sellers” (Bitcoin) in mid-collapse:

IF one were to take Bitcoin as a coincident indicator of consumer sentiment, it may be time to find a high window or bridge to push this economy out (or off)  of.

A couple of Fed Reports:  NY Fed Empire State survey and the Philly Fed Business Outlook.  NY Fed report was upbeat:

“Business activity grew robustly in New York State, according to firms responding to the March 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed nine points to 22.5. The new orders index rose to 16.8 and the shipments index advanced to 27.0—readings that pointed to strong growth in orders and shipments. Unfilled orders increased, delivery times lengthened, and inventories edged higher.”

And as for the Philly Fed?

“The diffusion index for current general activity remained positive but declined, from 25.8 in February to 22.3 this month (see Chart 1). Nearly 37 percent of the manufacturers reported increases in overall activity this month, while 14 percent reported decreases. The indexes for current new orders and shipments recorded notable improvements this month. The current new orders index increased 11 points, with 52 percent of the firms reporting an increase in new orders. The shipments index increased 17 points. The indexes for unfilled orders and delivery times were positive and increased 6 points and 10 points, respectively. Inventories were higher this month: The current inventories index increased from -0.9 to 16.5.”

Also just out:   Import and Export prices:

“U.S. import prices increased 0.4 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today,
after rising 0.8 percent in January. In February, higher nonfuel prices more than offset declining prices for
imported fuel. Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.2 percent in February following a 0.8-percent advance the
previous month.


All Imports: The price index for U.S. imports rose 0.4 percent in February, the seventh consecutive
monthly increase, after advancing 0.8 percent in January. The last time the index declined on a monthly basis was a 0.2-percent drop in July 2017. Import prices advanced 3.5 percent for the 12-month period ended in February, matching the 12-month rise in November. Those were the largest annual increases since the index rose 3.6 percent for the 12-month period ended April 2017.

On the Export side:

“All Exports: U.S. export prices increased 0.2 percent in February after rising 0.8 percent in January. The last time the index declined on a monthly basis was a 0.1-percent decrease in June 2017. In February, higher prices for both nonagricultural and agricultural exports contributed to the increase in overall export prices. The price index for U.S. exports increased 3.3 percent over the past 12 months.  “

So, let me see:  Import prices up twice as much as the export prices?  Terrible – and not a recipe for “making great” as we read it.

Market’s aren’t impressed either – with almost no change in futures pricing.

Cigars and brandy on the Poop Deck today and tomorrow as we await the High Jump finals next week.

In the meantime, though, keep a close eye on interest rates, especially the 10-year.  Because the Bonds will drive.

Right now, they are in the 2.817% range.  But while there have been rumors that the Fed will raise rates four times this year, the collapse in consumer spending (with no new goodies on the must-have list) will cause the four-hike nonsense to, well, take a hike.

When that happens, bonds will begin to gain in price and drop in rates.  And suddenly, the stock market will be wildly over-priced.

The only question is what day next week will all of this come to pass?

My best present guess is still Thursday.  No, that’s not a doctoral project math outcome.  It’s just being able to count to 55.

Maybe no one in Washington can manage even that.

Sheesh.  What’s the point?

Department of Useful

Toys ‘R’ Us goes out of business, 30,000 jobs at stake.

Health Officials Issue Measles Warning After 2 Cases Identified in Travelers to the U.S.

CoreLogic Reports Homeowner Equity Increased by $908 Billion in 2017.  It only matters if you sold, though.

Citigroup CEO earns 369 times average employee.

Another Nor’Easter next week?  Look for the Climate Charlatans –  now arguing both sides of warming.

Department of Useless

Not sure what this means: North Carolina veteran inaccurately declared dead.  Name wasn’t Lazarus, by chance, was it?

Cat owner spends $19G on surgery for 17-year-old pet.

And A Missing Nobel Prize Winner Has Been Found Wandering a Rural Road in a Daze.  Alien abduction’s our guess..  No?

Moron ‘the ‘morrow, then.  TTFN.

Did Prices REALLY Go Up?

Before we get into this morning’s Consumer Price Report from the Labor Department, a reality check is suggested because of what I’ve long-held is one of the Big Lies in economics.

I refer to what John Maynard Keynes talked about:  He sold the marginally-sane idea that there is a prevailing level of prices.  It is this, argued the Keynesians, that determine what goods and services cost.  They’re wrong, of course, but we’ll get to that.

Sadly for the U.S. ever since, we have missed the whole source of booms and busts – because it’s a difficult thing to understand.  Impossible in the thinking styles of the 1920’s but becoming rapidly intuitively apparent today. Recently, on the Peoplenomics side of the house, I explained how booms and busts are natural cycles that arise from company (and technology) growth and replacement.

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What was going on in the 1920’s was one style of agriculture, for example – the draft animal type – was being replaced with the mechanized variety.

We can quickly see how farmers continued to produce crops (even though prices were falling) and it’s something that cursed Herbert Clark Hoover before he ascended to the presidency.  Most people don’t appreciate that Hoover was deeply involved in trying to right the instability that resulted from the farm/mechanization overlap.

” Hoover was a leader in the Efficiency Movement, which held that every institution public and private was riddled with unsuspected inefficiencies. They all could be improved by experts who could identify the problems and solve them. He also believed in the importance of volunteerism and of the role of individuals in society and the economy.

The problem Hoover was trying to solve (inefficiency) was not the right problem.   The REAL cause of first the Roaring Twenties and the ensuing Hard Times of the Great Depression were really generated by too much innovation, too quickly.

If there’s an itsy-bitsy splash of hope that our next Depression could be smaller, it’s because barriers to innovation and new enterprise as lower with computers and programming.  It doesn’t take huge capital to form a company these days – a solid computer with a couple of code monkeys are do it all.  And then there’s Go Fund Me…

Still, the Depression was overlap at the macro level. It’s easy enough to express in set theory.  You have one circle (the farmers) and another – overlapping – circle which is the New Industry called farm automation.

At first, there was little overlap – no intersection of sets.  But companies saw opportunity and so equipment makers (like Allis-Chalmers, for example) expanded like mad.

Allis-Chalmers was a U.S. manufacturer of machinery for various industries. Its business lines included agricultural equipment, construction equipment, power generation and power transmission equipment, and machinery for use in industrial settings such as factories, flour mills, sawmills, textile mills, steel mills, refineries, mines, and ore mills. The first Allis-Chalmers Company was formed in 1901 as an amalgamation of the Edward P. Allis Company (steam engines and mill equipment), Fraser & Chalmers (mining and ore milling equipment), the Gates Iron Works (rock and cement milling equipment), and the industrial business line of the Dickson Manufacturing Company (engines and compressors). It was reorganized in 1912 as the Allis-Chalmers Manufacturing Company. During the next 70 years its industrial machinery filled countless mills, mines, and factories around the world, and its brand gained fame among consumers mostly from its farm equipment business’s orange tractors and silver combine harvesters. In the 1980s and 1990s a series of divestitures transformed the firm and eventually dissolved it. Its successors today are Allis-Chalmers Energy and AGCO.

As Allis Chalmers, Ford, and the new internal combustion engine-driven industries grew, so did the overlap area (the intersection grew).  Job shortages attracted rural people to the big cities.

Back to “set theory” – which was relatively unheard of in the 1930’s when John Maynard Keynes was spewing his notions on economics.  Computers, databases, and advances in technology have significantly changed our ways of thinking at very fundamental levels.

Thank you databases like dBase III.

Today, it should be obvious to anyone with modest computer database skills, that the intersection  (* again, what the overlap of sets is called, or vesica piscis if you’re a math-type) changed over time.

As set overlaps grow, you see a boom.  Work for all farm hands and work for all the factory builders, and what about those distinct Allis Chalmers tractors?  More manufacturing and sales than you can shake a stick at. You see, THE BUBBLE happens due to overlap.

The mistake that Keynes made was not thinking of the Depression  as a SET THEORY problem.  Instead, linear-thinking ruled the day, Keynes had held (wrongly I argue) to the idea that there’s a prevailing prices thingy.

What’s really going on is competing supplies and demands with gobs of moving parts that don’t simplify as easily as economists would like.  Kind of like heat island – another ugly, complicated, problem best simplified and then marginalized, but I digress…

So convincing was Keynes argument that it took hold with the banker crowd – equally in-the-dark about how economic overlaps works.

So today, visiting the International Monetary Fund website here, you can read of the godlike status afforded Keynes for giving clueless bankers some fresh ideas:

“During the Great Depression of the 1930s, existing economic theory was unable either to explain the causes of the severe worldwide economic collapse or to provide an adequate public policy solution to jump-start production and employment.

British economist John Maynard Keynes spearheaded a revolution in economic thinking that overturned the then-prevailing idea that free markets would automatically provide full employment—that is, that everyone who wanted a job would have one as long as workers were flexible in their wage demands (see box). The main plank of Keynes’s theory, which has come to bear his name, is the assertion that aggregate demand—measured as the sum of spending by households, businesses, and the government—is the most important driving force in an economy. Keynes further asserted that free markets have no self-balancing mechanisms that lead to full employment. Keynesian economists justify government intervention through public policies that aim to achieve full employment and price stability.”

Of course, there was another, more simple explanation: and that’s where the monetarists come along.

They point out that the fundamental policy error made in the Great Depression was in trying to hold prices at their old (and no longer supportable) high levels.

This caused all sorts of economic displacements, job sharing, and job cuts.  Arguably, had prices been allowed to go where they would in a bust (down) the Depression could have been shorter (still painful, though) and we’d have come through faster.

It’s an article of faith among monetarists (which I confess to being) that intervention makes things worse.

This may seem like a YUGE yawner to you, but I’m warming up to the point.

As you read today’s data on PRICE INFLATION, try to remember the monetarist’s view:

Prices don’t go UP.  The purchasing power of “money” goes DOWN.

Oh, and how far is down?

Looking at the Federal Reserve’s most recent H.6 Money Stocks report, M2 (not seasonally adjusted because “seasonal adjustments” are nonsensical in year-on-year comparisons since the “seasons” are identical, but that’s a statistics discussion for another morning) is up 4.2% and if you follow the fine work of John Williams over at, you’ll see that implied M3 – a revealing statistic that wrong-way Greenspan buried to keep knowledge of bankster schemes hidden from the public – is presently running about 5%.

So keep those numbers in mind:  M2 says your money has been watered down 4.2% and Williams’ M3 reconstruction says try 5%.

Detailed foreplay, but THAT is what you really need to know in order to understand the Consumer Price report which was just released:


The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.5 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The indexes for shelter, apparel, and motor vehicle insurance all rose and contributed to the 1-month seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The food index was unchanged in February, as a decline in the index for food at home offset an increase in the food away from home index. The energy index increased slightly, with its component indexes mixed.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in February following a 0.3-percent increase in January. Along with shelter, apparel, and motor vehicle insurance, the indexes for household furnishings and operations, education, personal care, and airline fares also increased in February. In contrast, the indexes for communication, new vehicles, medical care, and used cars and trucks declined over the month.

The all items index rose 2.2 percent for the 12 months ending February, a slightly larger increase than the 2.1-percent rise for the 12 months ending January. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.8 percent over the past year, while the energy index increased 7.7 percent and the food index advanced 1.4 percent.”

It’s a sad joke that government policy wonks believe in so-called core inflation.  That’s inflation with food and energy backed out.  Try living life without either and you’ll see what I mean.

Markets were about flat after the announcement.  With quadruple options this week, the next few days ought to be interesting.

The Crooked Media

So the House Intel Committee says No Collusion, democrats hold their breath and turn blue.

But what’s terrible instructive is how the networks are burying the story like it didn’t happen.

And those that mention it seem more obsessed with TRUMP USING ALL CAPS IN HIS TWEET.

Meantime, Mueller’s gone fishing again.

Racial Bombings?

The PC media ain’t saying it yet, but all the victims in Austin area bombings have been minorities.  See All 3 Austin Package Bombs That Killed 2, Injured 3 Are Connected, Police Say for details.

US Dept.. of Useful

CoreLogic Reports Early-Stage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in December But Serious Delinquency and Foreclosure Inventory Rates Declined Year Over …

Now, for Useless

European court backs Spaniards who burned royal photo.

Coco Chanel’s Fascination With Fashion Started Early in Life.

French government announces security plan for Mayotte island.  (Damn, there goes my plan for revolution there!)

OK, tomorrow we look at health numbers and life span projections on the Peoplenomics side.  And more fun and excitement here Thursday.

Slots or Markets? Hmmm…

This is a hell of a week for stocks.  We have option quadruple expiration Friday, and with the Dow very near the same levels as last month, we don’t expect too much out of the ordinary until the following Monday.

Despite being up 50 points in the early futures trade, remember the market STILL needs to put on 1,281 points in order to post a new record high – and it needs this level by a week from Thursday.  Otherwise, we are at that problematic 55-day zone I’ve told you about.

Friday, I should have changed my name to Ben Dover, though.  That’s because my levered short position didn’t roll like it could have…and that cost me more than our gambling outing this weekend.  Speaking of outings…

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President Trump will be in California inspecting new Wall prototypes this week.  That will be interesting because it’s the kind of trip where a “left field” event might occur.

The L.A. Times this morning sums it up this way “Trump loves winning, but in his presidency and business, California has gotten in his way.

In our view, however, the only thing in California’s way is?  California.

Not hard to figure, though,  given the California bullet train costs soar to $77 billion, opening delayed.  Typical California project management.

Do they not teach zeroes and minus signs in schools out there?  Used to, I know, when we were there.

Who is Programming the damn Kids?

The short answer is likely left wing teachers.

I say fire ’em.  We send children to school to learn – not to become political pawns.  Walk outs and days off? For the kinda of money we pay in taxes for schools?  Exsqueeze me? WTF?

The long answer begins with the story in the Chicago Sun-TimesStudent walkout over guns poses balancing act for schools.”  Only if they have idiots in charge.

These are kids and they (frankly) aren’t bright enough to manipulate the national media this way without grown-up subversive help.  And I can tell you from the peace and quiet of the outback that it’s the left-wingers who are selling the kids a “day off” (it’s as good as a free lunch promise).

This is organized efforts to disarm America in play, as we see it.

Speaking of Commie Overthrows

You have been watching, we trust, the China One Man for Life Rule that president Xi is undertaking?>Already the apologist articles are appearing.  Like Time’s‘More Opposition in Mao’s Time.’ Why China’s Xi Jinping May Have to Rule for Life.”

Well, let’s see:  If you lock up or isolate all opposition, why then, sure, you can pull it off.  Even Mao knew the dangers and in his reforms of 1982 set in place obstacles to this kind of takeover.

Which leaves us with the echo of Hitler – which eventually led to the invasion of Poland in 1939 which set things on the road to World War II.  Only in our future rhymes with past view, this means China will “lebens raum” Taiwan (and whatever else they want) in less than 10 years and that will be the eve of World War III.

In this iteration of Stupid Humans Repeating, we are likely to see China as the new Germany while Russia will reprise the role of Italy.  Not that Putin hasn’t made the trains run on time but also Russia Says It Successfully Tested a Hypersonic Missile. But U.S. Officials Aren’t Worried.  Something about “time to market” perhaps?

The better news is we STILL get a Depression.

The best news is that with Friday’s market action, the case warms for a blow off to the upside for markets that could last another year…but we shall see how the next week goes.

Warhammer‘s take is more moderate in comparison:

“Whether he is called President, Chairman or Emperor, Chinese leader Xi Jinping was gifted with some serious job security late last week.

Link to source.

What national plans and goals require a lifelong leader?  I encourage people to think about that for more than a minute.  The move to make Xi president for life is a clear indicator of national intent.

One naturally wonders if Comrade Supreme Putin will maneuver to eliminate the Russian prohibition of holding office for more than two consecutive terms, doing away with the inconvenience of having to vacate the position for one term until he can once again be elected later on to two more. consecutive terms.

Putin is not an oligarch, since as an ex-KGB officer, he lacks the wealth required to earn that title.  Putin is not an autocrat – yet.   Until the Russian rule mandating no more than two consecutive terms is eliminated, he is an elected leader.  We may learn more about Putin’s intentions as 2024 approaches.

My primary interest is in the sudden resurrection of autocratic rule in the 21st Century.  The trend is troubling, as epic decisions impacting countless human lives rests in the hands of a very select few, or just one.  History proves this trend does no produce good results.

Power is seductive and, as history proves, the root cause of tyranny is generally followed by misery on an epic scale.  Science fiction writer David Brin once said that power doesn’t corrupt, it attracts the corruptible.  All eyes should be on Xi and Putin and their future moves as rulers.

Benito Putin and Adolph Jinping, yah mean?

Woes of Warren

The NY Post is having fun reminding people that once-attractive  political hopeful Elizabeth Warren is refusing to take a DNA test to confirm or deny her native American claims.

Cue the music for this one... (another one bites the dust).

More Serious Native Matters

Fairbanks is shrinking.  We’ve always like the Fairbanks Daily Miner and their story of what’s going on in the sometimes-frozen North is worth study.

But there is something else, too.

We happy to have (distant) relatives who lived in southeast Alaska in a smaller rural area.  They felt “pressured” into leaving because Alaska native peoples are re-asserting primacy in some areas.

Given the relatives are not native Alaskans, I get that.  But keep an eye on first people’s up North.  They’re looking at the folks from “outside” a little differently now, we hear.

And given America’s track record in dealing with first peoples?  Can’t say as we blame ’em a bit.

The lower 48’s vision of “progress” seems to inevitably involves line, higher taxes, resource depletion, grandiose schemes and crooks in office.

Spineless Network?

Pressure grows for ‘The View’ star Joy Behar to apologize over anti-Christian comments, but ABC is silent.”

And speaking of TV, did you see where The Church of Scientology Is Launching its Own Television Network?

What Goes Up…

Comes down badly – and the wryrony is that it’s in the N’s today:  New York and Nepal:

Helicopter crashes in New York City’s East River; all 5 passengers dead, pilot only survivor.

Nepal police say at least 38 dead in plane crash.

And since there’s an old airline saying thatr “Crashes happen in three’s”, the story “Iran recovers black box from Turkish plane crash killing 11″ must mean the next month should be extremely safe for flying…

And with the “Dallas-bound flight makes emergency landing in Albuquerque” out of the way….

Defining National Purpose

We’ve bemoaned non-stop the lack of a HUGE national goal for America – something on the order of “going to the Moon” and such.

But now, check this out: “Dubai Decrees Itself the A.I. City-State of the Future.”

Uh…this leaves the U.S. to claim it’s future as the largest, most divided, brain-washed country in the world as a goal maybe?

Oops!  Already there, lol…

Weather, NOT Climate Dept:

Third Nor’Easter this month brings snow, wind and travel problems.”

And while Ure pondering that, did you read about the new book that details what we’ve long suggested: About Al Gore’s quest to “...become world’s first ‘carbon billionaire’ – ‘Lavishly’ profited off climate lobbying ?”

Repeat after me, kiddies:  Everything is a Business Model.

Almost worth buying the book to see how B.O.’s funding (as an Ill-state senator) of the original carbon exchange figures into this… too many books to read, not enough time.

Point is:  Climate talk is not about ACTION – it’s about power and bilking the stupid.

Now, if you don’t believe it, write a check to make it rain, then write a check and make it sunny.  Get back to me on how that works out.  During our lifetimes, if you please?

As Social Blows Up

We spied this on our point that social media is bad for you: A combination of personality traits might make you more addicted to social networks.

Looking Ahead

Consumer Prices are on the menu for Tuesday’s breakfast.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fair bit of upside.

Already, Triple A says gas prices are approaching something of a tipping point for drivers this spring.

Producer Prices and Retail Sales for Peoplenomics readers Wednesday morning.

Thursday, Philly Fed and NY Fed numbers come out plus import and export prices.

Friday – quadruple witching plus industrial production and housing starts.

In my view, right now we’re in a pretty good spot:  We have lots of overlap in the economy.  Old businesses are still there and new ones are coming on line.

Where we run into the ditch is when the old jobs peter out and the new jobs – made more efficient with technology – do the same work but with fewer people.

Did you see the modern spin of phone booths is coming around?

Now, if we could just outlaw phones in public places so we don’t have to suffer through loud conversations….why that would clean up the environment nicely, wouldn’t it?

Moron the ‘morrow…

Friday Reality Check: Bitcoin Leading Market Drop?

I have been watching with rapt fascination (like in a horror flick) as the data comes in on Bitcoin Trading which we’ve been tracking using our trend-channels and Elliott wave counts.  Up until now, it had looked like the worst might be over, but this morning when we looked at how the coiners were doing, our $4,000 target for Bitcoins has come back into view:

The circle is around the $4,000 mark because that’s where BITCs could go, though this is not financial advice.  I already offered that on cryptos and it boils down to “Don’t play in the street unless you want to get run over…”  Some people never learn, though.

(Continues Below)


NK Deal Means Market’s Must Drop

The White House has announced that president Trump will be meeting with North Korea’s leader in the near future to talk “a deal.”

Time’s take on this is reasonable: Is Kim Jong Un Gaming Donald Trump? Why Talks May Come to Nothing

Fact is, this is potentially terrible news for democrats.  They will have to pull every string now to stop any progress toward peace.  You see, while they talk being the “peace party” remember who brought you the Viet Nam war, just to name one.  And remember which party ended it.  Just saying, that’s the data in the history books.

Big money in war and the markets don’t take kindly to peace when  there’s no breakthrough new tech in the pipeline.

Time to release another batch of back-engineered alien technology, anyone?  LOL….

Jobs Report

This is definitely being overshadowed by the coup d’ Trump – getting North Korea rolling on talks to denuke the area.  But let’s do the jobs data and then look at what the enemies of the state are up to:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 313,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Employment rose in construction, retail trade, professional and business services, manufacturing, financial activities, and mining.

Household Survey Data

In February, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the fifth consecutive month, and the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 6.7 million.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Blacks declined to 6.9 percent in February, while the jobless rates for adult men (3.7 percent), adult women (3.8 percent), teenagers (14.4 percent), Whites (3.7 percent), Asians (2.9
percent), and Hispanics (4.9 percent) showed little change. (See tables.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 1.4 million in February and accounted for 20.7 percent of the unemployed.
Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed was down by 369,000.”

Key to the growing sense of “good times?”  The labor participation rate was up 3/10ths to 63 percent from 62.7% previously.  Not in labor force dropped 653-thousand – another big plus.

And the CES Birth/Death Model only accounted for 125,000 thousand jobs “estimated into existence.”  Considering 785,000 more people were working, the CES fraction is a believable number.

Dow futures are +160 on the Dow at clicktime.

If you don’t like our rendering of this story, check out U.S. nonfarm payrolls post largest gain in one-and-a-half years years as an alternative.

Democrat’s Coup Failing

Every since the hard-anodized former secretary of pay-for-play’s tenure – and the Obamanistas rigging of the presidential election (screwing Bernie, etc) we’ve been more than slightly down on the lefties in the democrat mob.

Let’s see who we have:

Dennis Schumer who is blocking most of the Trump nominees for office.  Had the republicans pulled this on  Obama, they would have been run out of town on a rail – labeled racists.  But when THEY do it…  To us, bullshit of both parties stinks, but the dems own this one.

To specifics:  The democrat’s chief hypocrite, Schumer, are blocking the Trump appointment of an openly gay ambassador!

Sooner, or later, people are going to wake up to the dems being opportunists who use people.

Liberal-friendly media (CBS) are pumping up the latest Stormy Daniels story.  But, like we pointed out yesterday, if she cashed the check, wouldn’t she be the one in breach?  Oh, and at what point does extortion begin?

The party of crooks is trying to put on a show of reform – belatedly.  Buzzfeed out today with “Democrats Are Considering Dropping Superdelegates Altogether — The measure would go a step beyond the Clinton-Sanders Unity Commission proposals to change the superdelegate system. An “absurd and undemocratic idea,” one DNC member said in a memo to party leaders.”

Like most of what democrats “stand for”  don’t look for meaningful reform.  They are the “can’t fix it – keep it broken so we can campaign on the same old-bullshit party.”  Which they have done a super effective job of…

Meantime, we’re becoming more incensed by the day with this Mueller “probe” – Why aren’t leakers in the FBI and the Just Us Department going to jail for leaking “secrets?”  Could it be because they are being fed stories to drive the narrative?

Mueller’s turned out to be a real wolf in republican’s clothing.

Desperation is in the same part of the dictionary with “democrat” and it’s going to get worse, not better, for them.  Why?  Because wallets don’t lie and “U.S. Household Net Worth Pushes Further Into Record Territory” explains the Wall St. Journal.

Our bottom line is simple:  Democrats are lying scum…but then so’s the other party.  The truth – and righteous path – is usually somewhere in-between.  That’s where Trump is.

The Swamp consists of the crooked dance school of old-line republican’s who can’t think past their pay-offs…I mean “contributions” and democrats who use anyone, of any race, of any country – even going so far as to import illegal aliens for that agenda to buttress their declining hold on power.

Just like “climate change” is made-science for a political agenda (climates been changing since the Ice Age ended, right?) the reason is to add taxes – and therefore power and leverage to the crooks who don’t live to ideals and ideas…and who haven’t fixed a major problem in America yet.  Instead, they are merely facilliated the monetization of problems.  And I don’t care if you measure prisons, racism, poverty…it’s more about monetization.

Absent real goals, real vision, real leadership, it’s understandable.

But let’s not kid ourselves about “what is.”

Collapse of Social Media

We’ve been predicting this for a long time, now:  The coming collapse of social media.

As you remember, I told you years back that social was a crooiked business model.

You see, major corporations and forums decided to use the “convenience” of Facebook and others.  But, as soon as they went IPO, then in came the greedsters to mess with the business model.

In the end (which we’re now approaching quickly) Fabebook (et al) are trying to hold people’s attention hostage but despite their efforts we now read how “Chances are you’re spending 24% less time on Facebook.

Did I, or did I not tell you this was a digital hoola-hope?  Reincarnation of CB radio for phones?  Well, now the data is starting to trickle in.

Millennials are starting to hate social media, too.” declares the New York Post.

Obama as the Weinstein Replacement?

Hmmm where’s that idea come from?  Oh yes… Barack and Michelle Obama Are Reportedly in Talks to Produce Shows For Netflix.

We’ve always known Hollywood leans left…story clinches it, huh?

Peoplenomics will be posted Sunday when we get back from our investment outing at the Winstar.  See ya’ll Monday…

Job Cuts Tame; Market Spike Up?

This is one of those slow-motion roll-outs that happens every month:  The latest job numbers come in three ways:  ADP has a job creation report.  Out yesterday and up.  Meantime, Challenger job cuts is just out and reads like this:

“The nation’s employers announced plans to cut 35,369 jobs in February, down 20 percent from the 44,653 cuts announced in January, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. Last month’s total is 4.3 percent lower than the 36,957 announced job cuts in February 2017. So far this year, employers have announced 80,022 cuts, 3.5 percent lower than through February last year. This is the lowest number of announced job cuts between January and February since 1995, when 69,907 cuts were announced.

And tomorrow about this time, we will be inspecting the detail-level of the job report from the Labor Department.

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All of which will be interesting, but it’s only in the longer-term data that we see whole sectors of the economy dying.

In Peoplenomics Wednesday, I went over some of the data supporting the idea that traditional “information industry” sectors are dead and dying.

No doubt, you have already seen the death of locally-originated radio programming – save the occasional widely syndicated morning show and of course the Hannity and Rush programs. Local broadcasting is mainly a joke.

But, it goes deeper than this:  Ratio and Television is dying a slow death because of technology.  Local ad sales have become a smaller piece of the electronic pie – Facebook is light, nimble, and focused compared to the waste that goes with high-priced local television ads.

Which, itself, is under attack from streaming services.

Just because we’re out in the Outback doesn’t mean isolation: We still check the New York Times (for their bashing, as much as anything) and television hasn’t shown a commercial since we went “all streaming” 8-years ago.

A series, like The Blacklist, comes in usually at about $34 bucks.  Each episode runs about 44-minutes.

So far (we’re in season 5) there have been 13-episodes.

Here’s the unique selling proposition of streaming content:  If you (and a spousal unit or friends) were to watch the show on the originating network, you would be bombarded with 16-minutes per episode of useless ads.  You don’t need to be told “Tell your doctor” anymore, do you?

208-minutes of ad impressions per season – which (rounding off) is 3-1/2 HOURS of having an electronic salesman and brainwasher in your living room.  What’s it worth to get ’em out?

So Amazon has a simple proposition:  It works out to $2.61 per episode to watch  commercial-free and in 25% less time.  What’s your time worth?

We don’t watch too many series this way.  BlacklistLuciferScandal, Suits (when it was, pre-Prince) and occasional fresh movies.  But for fill-in entertainment both the Prime flicks & series, plus a Netflix account and that Free-To-Air foreign television coming down off Galaxy at 99-West…it’s not like we lack material to choose from!

Toss in news commentary (Suspicious Observers on  YT is amusing, and who can get enough TedTalks and TedX) and pretty quickly, your “electronic information dance card” is full.

Information has gone the way of everything else – commoditization.

Recently, on the Peoplenomics side of the house, we presented the idea that we’re in a massive tech-driven period of industrial overlap.  The “old industries” are dying.  Ask our former TV engineer colleagues about forced retirements and at the same time, replacement jobs don’t have an economic basis.

Don’t register with the crooks of higher ed, though.

That’s why we still have journalism schools cranking out papered grads with no more than a student loan bill to look forward to.  We’re not being honest with ourselves about the future.  Software is taking over the writing and rewriting game.

Today, I’m conducting patent research on a marvelous new accessory for mobile devices that I’ve come up with.  Much as I would like to tell you about it, can’t do that until the provisional patent ap is pending.  But, from the ground up it’s a “quick hit” idea.  In and out.  That’s today’s world.

But that process underscores how we are navigating through these big, fundamental changes.  Once you have the internet and you’re on fiber…how do you fix the ultimate speed-bump – human I/O speed?

There is, indeed a level of crookedness to the whole shebang.  Stock buy-backs seem to be coming back into vogue since there’s little else left worth buying.  And there’s a practical limit to how many new “features” can be shoved into phones, too.

Want an app to make scrambled eggs and bacon?  All doable with our combination GPS/Microwave oven that connects via Bluetooth, lol.

If it sounds like Ure’s truly has lost his freaking mind, that’s not the case.  Something a little bigger has, though:

The world.

Something Fishy About Mueller

A meeting in the Seychelles (up and coming tax-advantaged place) between an influential Russian wealth fund manager on and Erik Prince, founder of Blackwater Security may prove to be one of the dumbest, most outrageous examples of prosecutorial over-reach ever.

Remember:  Mueller is charged with finding alleged collusion between Trump’s election campaign and the Russia, not a single useful charge has been found more than a year in.

The story now is POST ELECTIOIN – writ large in the Washington Post this today –  as it reveals itself to have nothing to do with the election and was likely NORMAL back-channel set-up for office.  The kind of footwork other administrations have done to hit the ground running.  You don’t think Slick Willy (Clinton) had some back channels going?  I’m betting Bush did, and Obama likely did, too.

It’s called “hit the ground running.”

Seems to us Mueller’s angling for another useless process crime and at this stage of the fishing trip, looks like the fish dangling on the line is Erik Prince.

As a reporter, though, two useful facts:

First, the WaPo story is time-lined:  well-after the election – so Mueller seems to us out of bounds on that score:

In January 2017, Erik Prince, the founder of the private security company Blackwater, met with a Russian official close to Russian President Vladimir Putin and later described the meeting to congressional investigators as a chance encounter that was not a planned discussion of U.S.-Russia relations.

Secondly, since whoever was in the intelligence agencies when Trump took over were hand-picked Obamanistas,  I wouldn’t trust a single damn one of them to give me (had I just been elected president) a straight, non-political answer to ANYTHING.

No doubt, Mueller will go Hatch Acting – saying Prince this and that…yada, yada.

But given the clown posse (apparently guilty of CRIMES like unmasking – still not prosecuted by the derelict Mueller, along with Clinton’s [alleged’] violations involving emails, pay-for-play, Uranium 1, and so on… it’s not surprising that the witch-hunt/fishing trip promises to continue several centuries into the future.

The “Scopes Climate Trial”

Speaking of time-wasters and BS, here’s another one:  Global Warming is going to court.  It promises to be the climate rhyme off the infamous Scopes Monkey Trial.  Wiki it:

“The Scopes Trial, formally known as The State of Tennessee v. John Thomas Scopes and commonly referred to as the Scopes Monkey Trial, was an American legal case in July 1925 in which a substitute high school teacher, John T. Scopes, was accused of violating Tennessee‘s Butler Act, which had made it unlawful to teach human evolution in any state-funded school.[1] The trial was deliberately staged in order to attract publicity to the small town of Dayton, Tennessee, where it was held. Scopes was unsure whether he had ever actually taught evolution, but he purposely incriminated himself so that the case could have a defendant.

Details?  In San Francisco, a case involving “climate science” is headed to a hearing and the write up on it here sounds interesting.

Except, of course, that the judge in the case is one William Alsup.

Let me demonstrate my amazing prescience when comes to courts and legal affairs:

I hereby predict Judge Alsup will find for the climate change promoters.

I’m a genius, right?


You mean I just remember Alsup was appointed by Bill Clinton and here’s the guy that took a probably-illegal DACA case and issued a stay against the Trump administration when they decided to rescind it?  Yup, same dude.

Between you and me, when a federal judge in California begins legislating from the bench on DACA TO the President, no question in our minds how he’ll rule on something with as much hype as “climate change.”

Wait and see me proven right (again).

I do not deny long term global warming is real.

The real rate of change – and bilking the public, however, is a different matter.

A few thousand years ago, there was an Ice Age and sea level was 300-feet lower.  No one’s arguing that.

What IS ARGUABLE is whether the combination of jiggered data, heat islanding, Gore pontificating, and Obama getting the dough to launch the carbon exchange is provable science.

That’s the boundary in this case and when (not if) Alsup rules it will polish the false mantel of legitimacy on crooked science which I hold would be different had equal dollars had been spent looking impartially at both sides…no just one….in the whole debate.

You write checks to one side of an issue and guess what the results are!  Gee, who’d have thought.

But hey!  Look at the bright side!  This will give demagogues…no, make that democrats…more buttressing of their efforts to mobilize mass thought control.  It’s all part of the Take-Down of America.

The Mob will agree that NuSpeak is the only Truth and here come the social enforcers.  Net controls on free speech will be real in five years here…as if the recent shenanigans of FB and Google…well, don’t get me started.

(Why isn’t Mueller looking into weighted search results for Hillary which we covered at the time?  Ooops…don’t ask, don’t tell, eh?)

Are you following this, Citizen?

California Succession Nonsense

We are – at least in theory – one nation when comes to federal laws and such.

Now we have noted democrat governor Jerry Brown saying Trump is basically going to war with California over illegal immigration and sanctuary cities.

Brown’s degree being in law, I would havce thought he’d understand the relationship of state to federal law.  Maybe he skipped that class on federal supremacy.  Who knows.

Markets will pop 50 at the open.

Moron the ‘morrow.

Bitcoin: Breaking Out to the Upside?

Sure looks that way to us as we tend to make investments based on the concept of “price channels.” When I take a snip from the website and toss my trend-channel view at things, it looks like the way is opening for a rally to north of $35,000 – but this is not investment advice!

What we can see in this chart is a way to count a rather odd 3, 4, and 5 that may have already completed.  If this is the case, this older count could already be obsolete.  The new counts might go like this:

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Here’s the other count – the one that argues it’s time to move higher with cryptos…

If this is the case, we expect the mainstream will begin to run bitcoin breaking trend stories (heading back up) in a week to three.  But, we shall see.

Turnaround Tuesday?

There’s one possibility – now that a .382 Fibonacci bounce for this “wave 2” was blown-through Monday:  That is that the market will hold for a close today not much higher than the .50 retracement level which I reckon to be around 25,009 on the Dow.

If we keep going up, I’ll hit my mandatory “seven-percent solution” and blow out of my short side trade.

What makes this a difficult market to process are the idiotic machinations of the Swamp Fight.   Let’s run  through some of them, starting with the “What the hell is (long-ago campaign aid) Sam Nunberg doing?” story.

Not that Nunberg matters, alone.  The anti-Trump left is also reveling in allegations from an eastern European (alleged) hooker who claims to have 16-hours of dirt on the Trump administration.

So, to line up the data as I study it:

  • Very liberal (easily “guilted”) socialist-leaners tend to be at the tops of very big investment firms.  Name “Soros” ring a bell? [related: Soros rejects claims by Slovak PM he interferes in Slovakia.]
  • Now we see globally that the US dollar is down.  But, this is paradoxical to global investors.  You see, a share of U.S. stock has something akin to “intrinsic value” such that when the dollar goes down in value the apparent price of stocks goes up.  This is for the simple reason that  it takes more paper (that’s worth less) to buy the same intrinsic value.
  • But the world is not sure how all this will play out.  Trump’s administration (which continuing to spend widely) is trying to restore some domestic production after the 40-year bend-over of globalists who robbed America of key industries like steel and autos.  Which is why (for the inattentive) Japan is #3 in global (nominal) GDP, for example while China is #2.  Where do our lifestyle major purchases come from (other than real estate)?
  • If you don’t look at The Statistical Times, you really ought to.  They not only report “nominal 2017 GDP” but they also correct for our favorite adjustment Purchasing Power Parity.  On this basis, they figure China is #1 in PPP GDP, we have already dropped to #2, while India is #3 and Japan #4.
  • Mexico economy minister says NAFTA must remain a trilateral accord.
  • Still, the world isn’t sure how the American Swamp Wars will work out, which explains, I think to a large degree, global uncertainty in markets.

That’s the high-level global view.  Now, let’s zoom-in on how crazy life is here in the asylum country, so to speak.

  • In over a year, the democrats have ONLY been able to indict for process crimes that predated Trump OR the Russians who will never face trial in America.
  • As if the Mueller fishing trip isn’t farcical enough, we now see him trying to subpoena every Trump campaign communication from eight people.
  • Meantime, we note, relative to the Sam Nunberg story that the (liberal) press is having such fun with, that the Trump-Nunberg relationship has been mercurial at best. From Wikipedia:

“In July 2016, Trump sued Nunberg for $10 million, accusing Nunberg of violating a confidentiality agreement by leaking information to the New York Post.[7] In a legal response, Nunberg said that Trump might have illegally funneled corporate money into the campaign.[8] Trump and Nunberg settled their legal dispute in August 2016.”

Not sure how that figures.

  • While CNN and others are positively giddy-sounding about the “hooker tapes” – real or imagined – we are concerned that at their core it’ll be prove impossible to base any prosecution on since 1) the reputed conversations were between non-US individuals and 2) it’s all third-party and therefore heresay as I understand law.
  • Meantime, though, we’re winding out from The Hill today that the “Australian diplomat whose tip prompted FBI’s Russia-probe has tie to Clintons.”  
  • It’s also important – when pondering the lack of a second special prosecutor (something that should have happened instantly) why stronger action hasn’t be taking by Justice.  But then we job security and promotion potential:  Think Succession to the Presidency which runs like this:

Vice President Mike Pence.
Speaker of the House Paul Ryan.
Senate President Pro Tempore Orrin Hatch.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.
Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin.
Secretary of Defense James Mattis.
Attorney General Jeff Sessions

With this, we see a way a president Pence and a vice-president Ryan and…oh, let’s not go there.

The NY Times headlines today exemplify the northeast bashing of Trump, though:

While I hold some respect for Krugman, I’d also have to point out that he wasn’t yelling and screaming so much when American jobs were being shipped overseas during the last 30-years.  It’s easy for people in modern times to read things like Krugman’s piece and ignore that the entire establishment economist block must share some responsibility for the USA now being #2 in the world basis PPP GDP.

It’s an inconvenient thing to mention, but we seem to be led (outside of the White House) by a nation of hacks and suck-ups…while somehow deluding ourselves that’s a winning approach.

Management Science suggests no, it’s not.

The problem since the Carter administration is Washington has had no effective leadership – just a cast of wannabe’s and power-driven all following in one-another’s footsteps.  That’s a nice way to say “circle jerk” but there you have it.

Since the market has gone up on the latest Nunberg and hooker claims, it will be interesting to see if Trump pulls out something that will really drop the markets:  Like the framework for a Middle East peace agreement.

Economics 101:  Peace is bad.  Very bad.  Especially for democrats.

The good news (for war mongers) is their pals – the Palestinians – are all set to reject whatever Trump tables.

The bad news for the war-lovers is North Korea Offers to Stop Nuclear and Missile Tests If the U.S. Sits Down for Talks.

Gosh, peace is bad…who’d have thought?

And so, as the sun rises over the asylum (country) hope builds for a continuation of global warfare, ensuring order in the Universe, will be maintained.  Stock’s hitting the 50% retracement today underscores the hype.

Which is why this might be a Turnaround Tuesday.

Or not.

Looking Ahead

Factory orders will be in at 10 this morning.  Tomorrow we begin the roll into Friday’s federal unemployment data.  We get a “nose” for that when reading The BTS Sales Index, a Predictive Monthly Metric for Business Leaders, Increases by Nearly 5% in March Update.

Here’s an interesting problem for the Trump administration:  Could the economy get so strong that we’d need to open up immigration a bit further just to contain wage-inflation pressures?   >  Check the job ads in Seattle, for example. <  Get back to me with analysis.

International trade and productivity costs tomorrow, as well.

For now, we watch and wait….while my shorts hurt.