Market Drop: Welcome to March 17, 1930

I warned you (before the Friday Open last week) that we would be seeing a “crash window” open this week.  And (try not to look surprised here) the Dow futures earlier were down more than 500 points.  And losses in Europe were in the 2 1/2 percent range. ...

2 Depression Friday: Opening of “Crash Window”?

Two Depressions to track:  One is a Tropical Depression that will be headed up into Texas next week.  And we worry about what looms for 2021 in personal finance.  We’ll begin with this latter (depressing topic) first. Crash Window? Somewhere in...

Money on Rails: Options Beat-Down, Busting the 50?

Well, well, well…  We’re about ready to make a sizeable bet on the S&P 500 busting or – under – the 3,000 level before the election.  Because as of this morning’s future’s pricing, looks to me like we MAY be about to start...

Balloon Economy – Rally to Where?

When I got up this morning, stock futures were up another 200 on the Dow and the balance of the market was looking bouncy as well.  Things have calmed down a bit.  But the big deal is the Fed statement tomorrow. The problem – which we’ve repeated many...

Fed Week: Sports Implodes, Fires Lumber On

The headline captures most of it – in terms of “all the news you need to know” this week.  Unless we get a real -legit – left field event.  So – as I have been threatening for days months YEARS – I really will be doing shorter...

Assessing Your CPI Exposure

Most people don’t have any idea what their CPI exposure is. In other words, how much more do you need to make (per hour, monthly, or annually) to actually keep even with the price of things going up? Given that we have been running somewhere around the 2% Cost...

Markets: Of Train Wrecks and Trackage

To set the mood for today’s look at what’s ahead for the economy, we recommend a 2-minute warm-up exercise consisting of your choice of: Train Wreck compilation 1 Train Wreck compilation 2 Track Wreck compilation 3 Train Wreck compilation 4 Or, if you have...

WIGO: Depression Onset

WIGO?  What Is Going On.  And this morning the answer is “Oh, nothing much – just Joe Biden’s Depression getting organized. No – not a political assessment – just what our charts over on the Peoplenomics side of the house are hinting at. ...

An All-Purpose Labor Day Letter

Market are closed, but we never stop working around here.  Menu this morning is a few grisly headlines, shop action, a contributed cardboard miracle begins, and a proud papa note.  Oh, plus a side of weather change and “crank the mower” time. Ready?...

Pre-Depression Job Snap

Students of economic depressions may be pretty clear on where America “went wrong.”  Well, at least they should be clear in about five-years or so…the point of today’s outlook: The American economic system?  Strong as ever.  But its fatal...

Trump’s Razor – Biden’s Chainsaw

Covered my first “real” election in Seattle back in 1970. Wes Uhlman was elected mayor that year.  Stayed up – did the “victory party rounds’ jammed an old Sony TC-110 cassette recorder mic in everyone’s face.  Winners said the same...

Does the Fed Hate Marxists?

Every so often my consigliere will call with a pertinent observation.  When the phone range Monday, boy, was I in for a treat… “Do you think the Fed likes socialists or Marxists?” “Uh…well…hadn’t been the #1 thing on my...

MovieTone Monday – Pillow Quest

You may not be old enough to remember the MovieTone News.  It showed in theaters from the mid 1920s until into the 1960’s.  I remember seeing ’em at the old theater on the north end of Bean Hill in Seattle.  As kids, we’d go there Saturday afternoons...