Energy prices. Thease are the most likely outcomes – a year-end run and new highs in 2027 OR the grim case. As should be clear: Extension of the lower red (rising) trend line is an obvious potential bounce point. OR as early as tomorrow depending on how the rest of global banking falls in. Either … Read More
Today’s Peoplenomics is one of those reports that refuses to stay inside the usual market-news box. We begin with Fed Shock Day, the Middle East energy squeeze, two fresh economic releases, and a nearly three-dozen-page ChartPack asking whether markets are setting up for a blow-off move — or something considerably less pleasant. Then we move … Read More
I have been experiencing extremely insightful and useful dreams this week. Not for their entertainment value, but because they answer a lot of long-held ponders. Like “What is Life all about?” While I work on distilling this down into a (small book-length) Peoplenomics report for tomorrow, there’s some real gold already starting to pan out. … Read More
A great deal of grist to review this morning, but we will keep it short, since Mondays will fade as Ure slides into more time off this fall. Here’s a preliminary work plan: Orientation Market preview BlinkLabNews Fed Box At the Ranch: Back to school Handwriting and aging note The Morning Sight Dow futures – … Read More
I will be keeping most of the latest details on our Over-the-Horizon software work over on the Peoplenomics side of the house. There is some very sincere research underway now, and I think we may be getting close to a useful way of separating actual forecasting from the very human tendency to recognize the future … Read More
Monday will be next, though tomorrow’s “ChopShop Monday” will be interesting for those interested in tossing darts at where the future will land… News Junkie Fix What changed overnight is a widening of the same pressure system we have been tracking: energy, war, inflation and rates are becoming less separable. Diesel being up nearly 80 … Read More
This morning on Peoplenomics, we’re looking beyond next week’s Fed meeting and asking a much bigger question: What should you buy today that the world may have trouble making cheaply ten years from now? Productive land, gold and silver, machinery, repair parts and durable goods all make the list — but not simply because their … Read More
Despite me telling you “CPI Doesn’t Matter” – because it’s a transient number, and rates are going higher, we still acknowledge there is a lot of investor focus on the numbers which have just been released – so let’s get that off the table before we make all the rest uncomfortably real. First is the headline: The Consumer … Read More
Dominoes fall down, right? The more useful question this morning is whether enough of them can fall up. May I have the latest rate decision from the European Central Bank, please? The Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. The conflict in the Middle East continues to … Read More
(As a stand-alone column because of length…) Here: let me open up my brain a bit so you can have another (frightening) look. Yes, I think about everything. It just takes time to get to it – and there’s a reason: Life is complicated. But this morning’s “block of missing science” comes courtesy of frequent Comment … Read More
This is normally the kind of thinking we squirrel away on the Peoplenomics.com site. But the issue here is bigger than a paywall… There is a fascinating AI story in The Wall Street Journal this week that deserves more than the usual round of “AI is going to kill us all” versus “AI will save … Read More
Peoplenomics readers get a little more than the usual economic deep dive today. We begin with the latest ChartPack as markets head toward next week’s Fed decision with energy, inflation, currencies and interest rates suddenly tied together in ways that could make this meeting considerably more interesting than advertised. Then there’s a complete new book: … Read More
Well, here we are: Summer is over and it’s time for the adventures of Fall to commence. Here’s our “hot list” to ponder: When the diesel spike hits. Price hikes are weaving through the economy already. As the Hormuz problem slithers through, markets will snake, too. This morning the future’s call is down on overnight … Read More