After the not wholly unexpected market decline Monday, there’s not really much to say about what happens next. Early futures revealed a slip and slide downward was possible, although, with Gold up $8 bucks early, and the dollar down proportionately, we wouldn’t be surprised if this wasn’t a small half-day (or better) rally. Futures were back to breaking even and into the green with 90-minutes to the open.
Thing is, if you take Eliott wave and trend channel theory even half-seriously, you’ll suspect that the move down of about 73 points on the S&P 500 Monday was likely only a small wave 1 of a large 1 of (3) down.
The Gospel of Market sniping tells us to anticipate a wave 2 up at some point. And from that a wave 3 down.
But it really goes much, much deeper than that. The waves in play now MIGHT be our long-awaited beginning of a Larger Wave 1 of a Still Bigger Wave III down.
Let’s go with that for a second.
Wave Counts Reveal Future?
Oftentimes, yes, they do.
Waves can all be reduced to spreadsheets based on average percentages of declines. Pick a starting wave, look precisely at the range of outcomes, and suddenly a statistical prospect is revealed. Like those certain conditions at the craps table, if you play.
Let’s take such a (hypothetical) spreadsheet and plug in (as our first (a) part of Wave (1) of III down being the Monday decline. How far down could this initial move go? To finish the smaller 1 of III.
Somewhere in the coming week, or two, therefore, we MIGHT trad down into the Wave V Possibilities above.
The Problem Is???
This is only the (a) down wave. Understanding waves “nest” (one within another, in recursive macro-like structures), we can then take the Wave V outlook from above and estimate that for a Wave III (1) target. Like this:
With this approach, we can look ahead a way and offer that the Wave (1) down of III Down around 3,538 (green box, right).
THEN to get to the “How bad could Wave III down really be?” we plug our Wave V at this level and assume this is how the larger (1) down of III could end.
Again, we take the Wave V and move it over into the first leg down and what happens?
Taken as a whole, then, we MIGHT not be surprised if, before all is said and done, that the Large Wave III could turn into something really fierce. S&P 2,600?
EXCEPT, this isn’t how you assemble the Wave view, but we’ll show you subscribers a more realistic outlook on the Peoplenomics side tomorrow.
This? Well, an example of how even a single trading day – like the Monday blow-down – can offer a huge collection of insights into our financial future. This is also a process which can be applied to human behaviors and lots of other aspects of life. The obvious limiting factor is the reliability of what would be – in DSP theory – your analog to digital converter.
No A/D conversion needed with financial data. Political waffle making, interpersonal behaviors? Experience builds and A/D convert (analog) into each of us over time. When something is off kilter? You “get a sense of things” which can be really good, or really, really bad.
Topic tomorrow on PN is “Faith as an Asset” – and it’s a key “rippler-into-future” that is under attack right now.
Trade figures are always complicated to sort out. Some of the Reasons why?
- To begin, when the Dollar is strong, it takes fewer dollars to buy overseas goods. Looks like prices dropped.
- But when prices rise it takes more dollars.
- When prices fall it takes less.
- And the whole frigging chinchilla doesn’t have anything to do with how much shit America’s really buying because all we get are the “dollarized versions” of data. Easier than counting widgets.
With these asterisks in place, you’re now ready to read this morning’s dollarized and distorted gobbledygook trade report:
“DECEMBER 6, 2022 — The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in October, up $4.0 billion from $74.1 billion in September, revised.”
Oh, it gets worse:
October exports were $256.6 billion, $1.9 billion less than September exports. October imports were $334.8 billion, $2.2 billion more than September imports.
The October increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $6.1 billion to $99.6 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $2.1 billion to $21.4 billion.
Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $136.9 billion, or 19.9 percent, from the same period in 2021. Exports increased $415.3 billion or 19.8 percent. Imports increased $552.2 billion or 19.8 percent
Too early to assess the market direction, but our money is on a rally developing today, making this a minor league “Turnaround Tuesday”. Which Ure will sit out in the “day trading penalty box” because we would never plop down $25 grand and trust the House is good for it and trade our way into financial heaven. Thanks, trailer in the woods is fine. How much is enough, really?
Last week’s data from the Association of American Railroads, by the way, says a great deal about widget counts:
“For the first 47 weeks of 2022, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 10,892,805 carloads, up 0.2 percent from the same point last year; and 12,298,102 intermodal units, down 4.8 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 47 weeks of 2022 was 23,190,907 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 2.5 percent compared to last year.”
Which blows a hole through common bullshit “growth” assertions…
Global Mental Collapse
Outside of Markets, Trade, and the missing $65 trillion dollars (‘Huge, Missing and Growing:’ $65 Trillion in Dollar Debt Sparks Concern (yahoo.) we find a few stories this morning suggesting mental illness is communicable via the Internet.
Stories catching our eye included Disney closes iconic 33-year-old theme park ride that it now calls racist – TheBlaze. Splash Mountain? Seriously?
But wait, there’s more! The madness of the ‘15-minute city’ which deals with Oxford, England’s plan to punish people for moving around too much. File under “Green turns Mean.” Watch Jim Kunstler for reaction.
Crazies Need to Silence Musk
Pretty obvious to us that Elon Musk is a more ballsy American patriot than most locally born people, what with his outing of the FedGov censorship program ahead of the 2020 election that likely aced Trump out of a second term. Consequently? Musk Admits ‘Quite Significant’ Risk of Assassination (theepochtimes.com)
But there are other means for The Powers to handle such inconvenient truths (as this Hunter debacle). For example, Musk’s Neuralink faces federal probe, employee backlash over animal tests. Cue the PTB paid agitators?
Slop Jar Headlines
Joe goes West to promo a foreign-owned chip plant. Nice. TSMC Plans $40 Billion U.S. Investment As President Biden Visits Arizona Chip Factory | The Olympian. Ties us more into Taiwan.
White House stonewalling is still the plan for what one could label the Biden “crime family problem.” Jean-Pierre calls ‘Twitter files’ revelations about censorship of Hunter Biden laptop story a ‘distraction that is full of old news’ – TheBlaze
Democrat election jiggering is expected to continue. Why the DNC Can’t Kill the New Hampshire Primary | Time. Meanwhile, we figure dems will win the Georgia run-off today by hook or by crook…
Consumer victory – kind of: Hertz agrees to pay $168 million to settle charges it falsely accused customers of car theft (consumeraffairs.com). Question now is how to get their criminal records cleaned up in computer systems?
Another interesting “crypto night” passes: Former Barclays plc boss Bob Diamond and stablecoin issuer Circle ditch US$9bn reverse merger. And, did you see where there’s an AI BTC price forecast? Machine learning algorithm sets Bitcoin price for December 31, 2022 (finbold.com). Color us skeptical and familiar with the limitations of computing. Still, dueling AIs could be fun, huh?
Passings: Emmy Winner Kirstie Alley Of ‘Cheers’ Fame Dies After Battle With Cancer.
ATR: Attacks on Free Speech
With all the revelations about Twitter being under the FBI’s thumb prior to the 2020 election (sham), we think it’s very instructive to notice how the liberal congress is working its way towards “news control” of social media.
A good read-in is found in Facebook threatens to ban news in the US over journalism bill – The Verge.
Back in the earliest times of the Internet, I took a look at information platforms, what’s now half a century of news chasing, my membership in professional organizations (like the National Society of Newspaper Columnists) and a solid grounding in press rights and copyright before launching UrbanSurvival.
The decision then – now a quarter of a century back – was that we could not engage in content rip-offs. When we author comment on a news item, it is usually with a link from a source’s own RSS feed or from search engine work.
The problem, for those of us who do actual writing for a living, is that content rip-off is a common thing these days. Doubtless some outfits just cut code to trace back RSS sources, then copy and paste content into their own feeds and pretend that’s “news.” No, that’s theft.
Thing is when people cut and paste major (and entire) portions of stories – beyond a simple RSS level, or the levels used to generate search engine results, then social media platforms really do cross a line of monetizing the content of others.
Point here is to keep an eye on how this evolves. Setting up your own (off social) news sources is a really good idea. If you don’t know of a good one, remember we keep a news sources page over here UrbanSurvival Business News Links Center which we can add to, or expand. Recommendations are welcome.
Thing is that most people don’t have much training in what’s “fair comment” and what’s “stealing of work.” Which is why so many links appear in our reports. We want you to go to sources and inspect what they’re reporting in depth.
For now, we don’t see any problem with posting RSS (or search style) links. But keep an eye out for tech companies that are in the wholesale rip-off business. Wholesale copying of copyrighted works should be a no-no. But, search and RSS titles with links is another thing, entirely.
Keep an eye on the Meta whining. And avoid websites that post whole sections of copy of key stories. Those sites may be looking for a free ride, and enterprising news organizations should be protected.
Write when you get rich,