Breaking: NFIB Optimism Just out: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.5 points in February to 98.8 but remained slightly above the 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index decreased three points from January to 88. The Employment Index ticked up nearly a point in February to 103.5, 3.5 points above its historical average … Read More

AI’s assessment of today’s column should be a hint: “This is good Ure copy with too much freight on one flatbed.”  But it’s the flatbed we have, so we’ll blow by the weigh stations. Although we had some signs in the market Friday that the downside was maybe about to level out, we also cautioned that … Read More

“Mmm.. too much ground to cover, Kimosabe!  This reads like three columns in one hide-out: ranch/shop projects, solar tax gotcha, and anti-aging protocol update.” “No worries, Tonto. We write… Besides, we’re just horsin around, right Silver?” At age 77.  You would think I would have enough sense to lighten the hell up and just chill. Nope.  … Read More

A lot is breaking at once now — markets, war risk, politics, and the simple matter of staying alive long enough to profit from being right. This weekend I step back and use one of my favorite lenses: the world as a casino, with two broad classes of bettors forming around the Middle East. One … Read More

Updated: 840 AM Central 10-minutes into trading, the market is emphasizing the importance of asking the right question, again. With the Dow down more than 800, compare the chart here with the one earlier this morning. Noitce how the 200 DMA looms nearby? Now on with the Regular Column… People unable to learn — or … Read More

8:50 AM Update If you have been following the (few but pesistent) online predictors and seers who have been mentioning a major spring EQ in the nation’s midsection (New Madrid replay, anyone?), this caught our eye. 4.9 magnitude in upper Lousiana: M 4.9 – 10 km W of Edgefield, Louisiana Can you spell p-r-e-q-u-e-l? 8:15 … Read More

ADP’s jobs number hit this morning, but the bigger tell isn’t the headline — it’s what breaks next. With Friday’s federal report likely tangled up by the partial shutdown, we’re left reading the “second-order” signals: where the economy is softening, where it’s holding, and what markets are assuming will be true a month from now. … Read More

Simply too busy. As you know, I’ve been deep into the new book, Co-telligence, which explores structured human–AI partnerships. My earlier book, Mind Amplifiers, was a stepping stone into this territory. Today I’m finishing up something that can’t wait: the Provisional Patent Application that bubbled out of it. It will be outlined tomorrow on Peoplenomics. … Read More

We wrote on the Peoplenomics side Saturday about the “Warm-Up War” and this week we are moving into the War Ripples chapter. On the Tracking Board Near as we can figure, the “warm-up” was the part when Iran’s leader was killed. Which led to the additional Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon.  Refer to Israel … Read More

Old age is coming for us all, just as sure as pigs come for slop.  But up here on Level 77 (which is a personal odometer reading), we strive to out-think the pigs and keep moving on with life.  So, listen up. I promise this won’t be “all sermon” but if you missed church today, this … Read More

War rarely begins with trumpets. More often, it starts with something small — a sanction, a strike, a “limited” operation with a tidy name. In the Cold War, superpowers perfected the art of brushfire and proxy conflicts: calibrated moves designed to test defenses, send signals, and preserve plausible deniability before anyone reached for the nuclear … Read More

Part of my 2026 Goal Package is to write less, stimulate more, and get my Morse back to 40 words a minute.  Today in the digital dojo, flips, forecasts, Friday and fun for Skimmer Nation. Markets: Long Views First Pop over and see The Economic Fractalist’s discussion of where we are in long-term cycles. Then look at … Read More