Well, that was unpleasant. For months, our experimental Over-the-Horizon (OTH) software has been pointing toward late October and early November as a convergence zone where financial, political, military, and technological pressures might begin reinforcing one another. Thursday’s 1,833-point Dow decline arrived inside the October 27–November 13 danger window identified in our frozen October 24 forecast. … Read More

Not as serious – or data-dense – as a Peoplenomics report (where we’d show off three dozen charts that matter in here).  But this is a “George-think Lite.” Before we get into the economics, which is our bread and butter around here, we’re going to “clear the decks” with a quick “roll in the news” and … Read More

After the Close: When the Market Gets Serious Well, this was sure a nasty one, eh? Down more than 1,800 points on the Dow, with percentage losses elsewhere looking equally grim. Not exactly the sort of Thursday that makes you want to whistle your way out to the mailbox. But this is precisely when we … Read More

No, and we can’t hear the fat lady singing yet. However, while there is still a risk of an upside blowoff into the New Year, the odds are starting to shift now. Especially with today getting down to where things were before the election bear-running by the bulls. We will keep an eye on it … Read More

The futures were showing a little bit of forward motion in the early futures today.  The U.S. Election was not the end of the world. And, as we pointed out in Peoplenomics yesterday, markets (and people) do OK when the president and congress are of different beliefs. Free spenders in congress won’t be able to get … Read More

What would a visiting alien civilization make of Wall Street’s election relief rally? That’s the question behind this week’s 43-page Peoplenomics ChartPack, The Orbital Outlook. We climb aboard a latter-day USS Enterprise, put the scanners on high, and examine Earth’s financial markets without the usual political baggage. From orbit, the election may have changed who’s … Read More

Three Times Tuesday may sound like cranky-old-man math. But it’s really a reference to three clock points today that could drive the future. Or at least give the markets an excuse to have another nervous breakdown. Clock Point One: Oil. Oil prices are one of those market indicators that can make a perfectly good rally … Read More

Buy the rumor, sell the elections? It’s going to be a hard morning on the bears who crawled under the bed Friday fearing the end of the world.  We’re sure the dust bunnies appreciated the visit, though. News Compressor: ON Please refer to your Program for the layout of today.  Nothing-then-something is the planning schema … Read More

In keeping with now being retired (or retarded, your call) life is slowly moving over into the “more time for survival, research” column.  From now, UrbanSurvival will have pertinent news summaries with the occasional research, economic, or “whatever moves me” commentary. The key change around here is personal time allocation. I can get a briefing … Read More

Monday could be one of the more revealing market sessions of the year. The bulls will be selling normalcy, hoping for a rally back toward the broken 85-day moving average. The bears will be watching for something uglier: the possibility that the AI investment boom has begun transitioning from unlimited promises to expensive financial reality. … Read More

Here is the problem in a nutshell: In 1929 (whose Crashiversary hit this week) it took about 55 Calendar days and 37 Tradintg days for the onset of the Depression to show up. The immediate problem ahead?  The next two weeks are like to “turn to shit before your eyes.”  Not saying they will.  For now, … Read More

That is the question today. Asia was relatively “chill” overnight, save the KOSPI which is almost down to 5,900. But this gets me to first things: My consigliere called Wednesday to remind me to put a book by on my reading list. Wang Huning’s Book: “America against America” (1991) – on Amazon here. Here’s the … Read More