War rarely begins with trumpets. More often, it starts with something small — a sanction, a strike, a “limited” operation with a tidy name. In the Cold War, superpowers perfected the art of brushfire and proxy conflicts: calibrated moves designed to test defenses, send signals, and preserve plausible deniability before anyone reached for the nuclear … Read More

Part of my 2026 Goal Package is to write less, stimulate more, and get my Morse back to 40 words a minute.  Today in the digital dojo, flips, forecasts, Friday and fun for Skimmer Nation. Markets: Long Views First Pop over and see The Economic Fractalist’s discussion of where we are in long-term cycles. Then look at … Read More

“We gonna have us a MIT session, he-ah…”   (Hopefully, you can still sub-vocalize while reading. Because there’s a certain loss in Hunter S. Thompson-like material when speed-reading.  Loses some flavoring that only an overacted lingo-lango regionalisms can provide…) Yes kids, time for the Old Man to huff the whiteboard marker and explain: Market Informatics is science … Read More

A few ideas on “How Forecast Reliability Decays — and How to Use It to Your Advantage.” In the world of investing, we all want to know: how far into the future can we trust our forecasts? Whether it’s market movements, volatility, or macroeconomic predictions, the ability to foresee what’s coming is a valuable tool … Read More

Just out – today’s financial Biggie: Case Shiiller Housing. Data through December 2025 reveals the following: Year-Over-Year The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions,reported a 1.3% annual gain in December, in line with the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.9%, down … Read More

This is a two-parter today.  Here, I spill my guts about markets and (living in the) woods life.  Then, across the top of the hour, the Case-Shiller Housing data rolls, so y’all come back, here? First, congrats to The Economic Fractalist for calling the break well.  I think he’s posting on Thursdays, so be sure to … Read More

Truth be told?  I must have been the guy in the back alley behind a diner in the thirties who ran the floating craps game. This week sets up like the classic “could go either way.”  As I showed you Friday, we’d get to the resolution of a bounce in our state-variance extremes modeling – and … Read More

I guess we should finish off the fine-points of the deck build first. You need lights at night to see where you are walking.  Liability, lawyers, that kind of thing.  The deck stairs (if anyone is stupid enough to come on rural Texas ranch land – at night – with a risk of surveillance cams) … Read More

Friday we saw exactly what we anticipated — a “split decision” in the markets. One model suggests we may have a bit more upside compression ahead, possibly even one final squeeze before a larger turn. Another clock is ticking toward a potential unwind. The key right now isn’t prediction — it’s instrumentation. When markets compress, … Read More

“Showdown at the ol’ Market Corral today, pahdna.”  (Plus another day of Multi-Domain Sweep of Universe.) I am really looking forward to this afternoon’s close in markets.  Because we will get some incredibly useful insights into state-variance extremes versus fractal market analysis.  As you know, The Economic Fractalist has been calling for a hard violent turn … Read More

For non Peoplenomics readers – and gentle civilians who don’t indulge in market cosplay – I will keep this fairly simple. In our ChartPack Wednesday, I made a very useful remark.  The kind that burns like an ember in the brain overnight and results in leaping out of bed at 3 AM with the “brain on fire” … Read More

Maybe, But Education Might Not Be the Answer Anymore In this week’s Peoplenomics we delve into two pressing questions: State-Variance Extremes: The Key to Market Moves Our custom State-Variance Extremes model has been helping us stay ahead of the market’s movements, with a notable 11% gain in the first two months this year. We take … Read More