Monday could be one of the more revealing market sessions of the year. The bulls will be selling normalcy, hoping for a rally back toward the broken 85-day moving average. The bears will be watching for something uglier: the possibility that the AI investment boom has begun transitioning from unlimited promises to expensive financial reality. … Read More

Here is the problem in a nutshell: In 1929 (whose Crashiversary hit this week) it took about 55 Calendar days and 37 Tradintg days for the onset of the Depression to show up. The immediate problem ahead?  The next two weeks are like to “turn to shit before your eyes.”  Not saying they will.  For now, … Read More

That is the question today. Asia was relatively “chill” overnight, save the KOSPI which is almost down to 5,900. But this gets me to first things: My consigliere called Wednesday to remind me to put a book by on my reading list. Wang Huning’s Book: “America against America” (1991) – on Amazon here. Here’s the … Read More

Because of retirement – and having quit the clicks and ads game long ago – we are moving our server plan to something cheaper.  UrbanSurvival comes out of my pocket – and the only revenue source for all our work continues to be Peoplenomics.com subscriptions. Details here, if interested. As a result of this movement, … Read More

Lingo matters: “The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, … Read More

The market may have one more uphill run left in it. In today’s Peoplenomics ChartPack, our Aggregate Index is back above its 85-day moving average—the “line in the sand”—while the Magic Ovals and state-variance studies leave room for additional upside. The fast bulls are still ahead of the slow bulls. That keeps a rally in … Read More

You’ve heard the stories at the bar.  “You want the Good news, or the Bad about inflation?” asks a player. “Uh…Ure call….” “OK, here’s the Housing data – you work it out!” Year-Over-Year The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 2.1% annual gain in … Read More

Thumb Twiddlers, gather round.  We have one presser, one half-hour to Housing Data. and a day after lunch for the Fed. Presser firster: I would paste in all kinds of numbers back in the old days, but I’m retired (sort of) and don’t do word salad before noon, thanks. Now? Lower head, applying nose to … Read More

We kick off Fed Week with the CFNAI – Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator – just out: adjust the rearview accordingly. “The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.07 in September from –0.08 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from August, and two … Read More

Big week ahead:  One week of cleaning before my pal of almost 75-years – the Major – shows up. Getting the shop presentable and lining up the ham radio antenna work plus the usuals this week (like a lube, oil, and filter at the cardiologist’s place for both of us this week…) well, you know … Read More

Peoplenomics Saturday: The Market’s Missing Third Leg Markets are heading into what could be a consequential week, with housing data, the Federal Reserve, GDP, and employment costs all lining up for inspection. Meanwhile, our Aggregate Index has slipped below its 85-day moving average, technology stocks are losing coherence, and the question isn’t merely whether stocks … Read More

Three Financial Waves Are Beginning to Interact – as if the “slipistration” of the market isn’t evidence isn’t clear enough yet. The morning’s most important observation is not any single headline. It is the interaction between three systems. If you’re on the Home Edition, here’s the layout: Wave One: Energy inflation. Gulf instability raises the cost … Read More