Waiting for the Bag – who will hold it? , Waiting. It’s what life becomes at certain nodes of hypercomplexity. As a natural-born action figure, days like this make me nuts—and I’m perfectly willing to share. But you come here for brilliant insight, and sorry to report, we’re fresh out. We seem to be sitting … Read More

AAR – After Action Report Today our “flag and pennant” concerns peaked.  Have a look. We won’t offer anyone advice.  Just education and news.  Having said that: Pennants and flags are short-term continuation patterns that appear after a sharp price move, usually called the “flagpole.” A flag forms when price then drifts sideways or slightly … Read More

Skip down to the News Compressor if going out to the working face of the **Reality Mine** isn’t your thing. But there is something going on in the data. We just can’t tell what it is—yet. Months ago, I turned off the outside tracking software and advertising on UrbanSurvival. Since then, I have been using … Read More

Next week’s Fed meeting probably won’t change rates. That doesn’t mean the words around the decision won’t move trillions. Today’s Peoplenomics looks at why the Fed may be reading the AI buildout exactly backward—mistaking construction spending for proof that the promised profits will ever arrive. The ChartPack adds a second warning: tech has lost relative … Read More

This, boys and girls, lads and lassies, is what you call a “Dregs of Summer” column.  Market news is thin, polarization among the people is high, and the summer is approaching Hell’s HVAC settings. What’s a “Face Rally?” Monday.  That’s the template. Monday’s close was 51,839.26, down 307.16; 52,411.90 was the intraday high.  The face-plant-close, … Read More

Take the day off.  In fact, take the rest of the week off. Because we already (sort of) know what to expect. Within a somewhat bounded range the future has been predictable lately.  In a “bring your own NoDoz” way. WW 3 – Another Weekend Some weeks back we said it appeared that World War 3 … Read More

In the first mowing tale – and I have seen this first-hand – the workman comes out, starts the lawnmower and then carefully mows the yard.  Forth and back, but stopping and reversing course frequently in order to ensure he hasn’t missed a spot. The basic mowing takes him  two hours. As the tale unfolds, … Read More

Saturday’s Peoplenomics starts with the market’s slide into what I called “dangerous levels” Friday—and then asks the larger question: If another Depression is forming, what will make this one different from 1929? The answer may involve a nasty combination of managed prices, leveraged infrastructure, food and water stress, and an AI buildout whose revenue requirements … Read More

Hard data first today, though market futures were already in the pits — options expiration, border politics, housing arithmetic, and another Fed data drop all lined up in the same morning traffic jam. Retail sales and housing numbers gave us the first hint that the consumer is not wading in deeper now. Is the Viagra … Read More

DDT: Data Dense Thursday. Retail Sales Softer than many expected: “Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $768.6 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and up 6.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from … Read More

Today’s Peoplenomics goes well beyond the charts. We are looking at two possible engines behind the long economic cycle—and they may be different faces of the same problem. One says human beings and institutions are reaching a cognitive saturation point: information, complexity and machine-generated options are arriving faster than the Slow Layer can absorb, verify … Read More

The market took a little knock down Monday (“sell the rumor”) so now – at last – the answer to the question which has been (poignantly) hanging in the wind since last week. How Bad is it?  Well, you may not believe this one… “The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.4 percent … Read More