While the fireworks pop and grills fire up this Independence Day weekend, markets are showing some interesting gearing under the hood. Our latest look at M2 growth versus the Aggregate Index points to roughly 4-to-1 leveraging of new money into gains over the past year—21.9% higher on the index side. That kind of disconnect has … Read More

And, since I do have to keep up on everything – it should now become clear why the “News Compressor” and the silicons are still reading 50+ intel sites per day and issuing forth summary changes for us. In other words “Retired or not, the News Compressor and related tasking will still appear” and maybe with … Read More

Job, jobs, jobs – and my own semi-retirement.  Yep, the business stuff first and my Exit Plans in the Around the Ranch section. The two biggies today are the Federal jobs numbers which look like so: Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+57,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2 percent) changed little in June, the U.S. Bureau … Read More

The holiday-shortened week isn’t just about fireworks and family gatherings. Beneath the surface, markets are entering one of those rare periods where history, liquidity, and human psychology may all be lining up in uncomfortable ways. This week I take a hard look at an intriguing correspondence between today’s market structure and the weeks leading into … Read More

Your home may still be the best investment you’ll ever make – except maybe a marriage license if it comes with a warranty… Year-Over-Year The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions,reported a 0.8% annual gain in April, up from a 0.7% rise in the previous month. … Read More

We begin with the “two-part Tuesday” explainer:  The Case-Shiller, S&P (and whoever) Housing report will be out at 8 AM. I guess we could call it “Two-and-a-half-part” Tuesday because around 10 AM the markets will have a Maalox Moment when both the Labor JOLTS report and consumer confidence show up – surely adding a half-point … Read More

Seriously?  I mean WTF, over?  So we are what – running WW III on weekends only??? This is plain crazy! Ceasefire again on the brink as U.S. strikes Iran, Tehran fires missiles at Bahrain, Kuwait. I don’t know whether the whole world needs a lithium carbonate enema, or what (that’s the manic depressive drug that … Read More

Yeah – me and AI to shave time – right? What changed overnight is the RSS/feed comparison confirms the prior lead but changes the weighting: Iran-Hormuz stays at the top, Ukraine’s refinery campaign remains second, and the tropical item is downgraded because official NHC pages show no Atlantic tropical cyclones at the latest checked update. … Read More

There are two kinds of shops: the shop you own, and the shop you can actually use. Come to think of it, there may be three: the shop you own, the shop you can actually use, and the shop you would have if the PowerBall people ever made a clerical error in your favor. Point … Read More

Today’s Peoplenomics ChartPack is up. This one connects the dots between geopolitics, nuclear-risk headlines, Hormuz shipping stress, Bitcoin under pressure, gold catching a bid, and the Aggregate Index setup now warning that the broader market may already be rolling over. Public side: the world looks noisy. Subscriber side: the charts are starting to rhyme. We … Read More

The first major impact of the day is Ukraine slapping Russia with a 660 drone strike overnight as that battlespace hardens.  Now here’s where it gets interesting.  Notice the picture in the AP story as Ukrainian drones pound Russia in one of the heaviest assaults | AP News and you will see the damage footage … Read More

Four notable earthquakes rolled overnight. In descending order: 7.5  28 km SE of Yumare, Venezuela 7.2  23 km SE of Yumare, Venezuela 6.9  30 km ENE of Kuji, Japan 5.6  11 km N of Redwood Valley, CA Venezuela is the serious human-disaster story. USGS put the pair at M7.2 followed less than a minute later … Read More