Lingo matters: “The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, … Read More

The market may have one more uphill run left in it. In today’s Peoplenomics ChartPack, our Aggregate Index is back above its 85-day moving average—the “line in the sand”—while the Magic Ovals and state-variance studies leave room for additional upside. The fast bulls are still ahead of the slow bulls. That keeps a rally in … Read More

You’ve heard the stories at the bar.  “You want the Good news, or the Bad about inflation?” asks a player. “Uh…Ure call….” “OK, here’s the Housing data – you work it out!” Year-Over-Year The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 2.1% annual gain in … Read More

Thumb Twiddlers, gather round.  We have one presser, one half-hour to Housing Data. and a day after lunch for the Fed. Presser firster: I would paste in all kinds of numbers back in the old days, but I’m retired (sort of) and don’t do word salad before noon, thanks. Now? Lower head, applying nose to … Read More

We kick off Fed Week with the CFNAI – Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator – just out: adjust the rearview accordingly. “The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.07 in September from –0.08 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from August, and two … Read More

Big week ahead:  One week of cleaning before my pal of almost 75-years – the Major – shows up. Getting the shop presentable and lining up the ham radio antenna work plus the usuals this week (like a lube, oil, and filter at the cardiologist’s place for both of us this week…) well, you know … Read More

Peoplenomics Saturday: The Market’s Missing Third Leg Markets are heading into what could be a consequential week, with housing data, the Federal Reserve, GDP, and employment costs all lining up for inspection. Meanwhile, our Aggregate Index has slipped below its 85-day moving average, technology stocks are losing coherence, and the question isn’t merely whether stocks … Read More

Three Financial Waves Are Beginning to Interact – as if the “slipistration” of the market isn’t evidence isn’t clear enough yet. The morning’s most important observation is not any single headline. It is the interaction between three systems. If you’re on the Home Edition, here’s the layout: Wave One: Energy inflation. Gulf instability raises the cost … Read More

Last week, my consigliere called to (again) remind me of the dangers of circular finance. See, he used to have a national client that made the bulk of its growth -for years running – with competitors selling facilities among themselves.  And the problem? Accounting is generally about relationships between two companies. When things extend out, past … Read More

George Ure has written multiple books exploring artificial intelligence, including Mind Amplifiers, Co-Intelligence, Test-Fitting Apes, Theomachines, The Judgment Engine, and AI: Thinking on the Gallows. So, when he ventures into new AI territory, there’s a substantial body of earlier thinking behind it. Today’s Peoplenomics research goes considerably further than proposing a thinner, less computationally expensive … Read More

We are definitely drifting back toward the short-and-to-the-point public columns. The reason is simple: Deep dives on Peoplenomics are eating the research and writing time that used to go into this side of the operation. Which means we need to get to the point faster. And this morning, the point is that markets, housing, energy, … Read More

While we wait for the D.C. KENO runners to show up, a look at our Aggregate Average of the markets (yellow numbers) compared with the 85 DMA reveals the market – half-an-hour in – was over the 85 DMA This is only an early preview, but it shows how closely the market is working both … Read More