Crap Metrics of 2022

Event Arrows have been loosed that will shape the balance of 2022 and form our entry into 2023.  We need to look closely at some of these. The Fourth of July has always been a good time to kick back, assess the year to date, and see where the “arrow of events” is pointing for the balance of the year. The bad news?  Not too much is going as hoped. 2022 has turned into an historical turd, if you’ll forgive my directness.

Still, all work and no play is no good, either.  With goodies on the men u like BBQ, maybe playing in water (if you can find it), and enjoying some well-deserved time off – that’s what makes for a good holiday.

This morning’s report will therefore be “not quite PowerPoint bullets.  But we won’t mince words, either.

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Reality of BTC Collapse – Debatable Tulips

A former colleague of mine suggested – shortly after BTC came out – that I accept BTC as payment for our Peoplenomics.com insider newsletter.  At the time, BTCs were rolling along at a dime, or so.

“No thanks.  The whole idea of a zero utility, purely made-up, and digitally dependent currency – which will run like a Ponzi scheme is not the way I live.”

My colleague, reports have it, followed his own advice.  But another rumor I heard was that he may have bailed out – somewhere below $2,000 each.  Smart dude – got while the getting was good.

We, on the other hand, never made a couple of million on BTC – and since we don’t believe in made-up money – especially in competition with the prevailing government’s idea of money – we are still here in the Outback of East Texas.

But we sleep well.  It’s not right, ethical, or honest to rip off people who’ve never studied financial collapse.  Which is what we’re likely to be on the leading edge of right now.

With an hour till our regular publishing time, BTC was trading at the lower end of the 19,000’s. $19,140-ish.

Our outlook is that BTC will continue to track the onset of the serious recession (Q1 was down, and if Q2 data reveals GDP down, then we’re in recession right now).

With the Ukraine, Lithuania, and whole Eastern Front of NATO on the verge of going nuke, we’re expecting the market to wake up and smell the coffee shortly.  At which time – pushed along by famine and screaming energy prices – both of which Slow Joe owns lock, stock, and barrel, the issue of systemic collapse will come along.

Could be a really ugly long weekend.  (As a bear side player, I look for a rally of some sort today – maybe even into the close – as fresh pundits are wheeled out by the American financial empire to tout how good it all is when the data passing argues the point.

Just as America lost its moral high ground to communist brainwashing camps – masquerading as schools.  And just as American lost ground by failing to probe the president’s son’s laptop – and just as…well, let’s stop there – it’s too long a list to repeat.

Let’s just say the prepper’s fear of “the shit hitting the fan” is close enough you can hear the fan motor and feel the wind a bit if you’re paying attention.

Hype Street

We think the Motly Fool may have earned it’s second name by running Missed Out on Bitcoin? 1 Top Cryptocurrency to Buy Now | The Motley Fool.  But they are not alone.

Addiction and Beliefs are equally hard to break. With effort, though, you can find stories supporting our ominous outlook.

Yet, as much as BTC and its tag-alongs are little more than air sandwiches, the fact is there’s been an actual “fake economy” created.  We can’t even begin to count the number of “belief suspending” financial engineers who have thrown-in with the Devil’s coin.  The Crypto market has its own off-planet reality press corps, too.  At least we think so after reading Bitcoin, Ether Futures Rack up Nearly $200M in Liquidations on Short Squeeze (coindesk.com).

For those still quibbling over our sanity, the data has now swung in our direction.  Take for example New York denies permit renewal for bitcoin mining company Greenidge Generation, calling it threat to state’s climate goals – CBS News.

Have people forgotten what we wrote more than a year ago?

“You cannot on the one hand fight climate change and on the other support Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency miners.  They are ethical opposites.”  REAL green people like us live on a tree farm and have 30-odd solar panels.  FAKE Greenies talk ridiculous climate shit (Obama killed coal, Biden Killed energy independence) while supporting the crypto con.

Oh, and I have yet to hear from anyone who will explain to me (and my consigliere) what happens to crypto when – in additional to brownouts and risks of hard web down – the miners will be to operate the much-vaunted public ledger?

Don’t look now, but our back of the envelope calculations are that cryptos are virtually sinking below mining costs.  In other words, anyone going into mining now is like the last Johnny-come-lately who will buy the last mining computer ever sold.

The mainstream press – which has the personal lubricant concession with government guidance – didn’t make a big enough deal about it this week, but reader Kevin spied this and sent it along.

The beginning of the end is probably this: Pentagon finds concerning vulnerabilities on blockchain | TechRepublic.

Outdated software, vulnerabilities.

It’s 1637 all over again – which was when Holland’s Tulipmania was winding down.

Tulip mania was a period during the Dutch Golden Age when contract prices for some bulbs of the recently introduced and fashionable tulip reached extraordinarily high levels. The major acceleration started in 1634 and then dramatically collapsed in February 1637.”

We’re thinking right after the Fourth would be a nice rhyme.

Our advice this week is simple:  Drop by to read our columns next week, but bring Kleenex for the tears of Bulls and Band-Aids for the greedy.  We could have blood running in the streets.

Speaking of BRIS

(Blood Running in Streets)

Russia didn’t really default on its debt repayment.  It had the money delivered but from there Sanctions screwed things up:  Kremlin: Default in Russia? Not our problem (pravda.ru).

Meantime, the EU flag raising (and then NATO membership) is still on the agenda as Ukraine’s accession to EU: Zelensky, Stefanchuk and Shmyhal sign joint statement (ukrinform.net).

Idiots At the Helm

Am I the only one who sees the US prosecution of foreign wars lately as a backdoor excuse to flood the US with people not from here, who don’t share our values?  Thought crosses my mind as U.S. expands eligibility for Afghans and others seeking entry on humanitarian grounds – CBS News.

What part of “limited effectiveness” (if any) don’t they grok?  Deadline passes and 1 in 10 Army National Guard soldiers still unvaccinated for Covid. Will they be expelled? (nbcnews.com).  Why, the pressure to vax kids is so strong, we hear vaccinating fetuses will be explored next.  All about money, you say?  If action is taken against the Guard forces, we will have to read it as just another Biden-Obama take-down of the military.

No, they can just read:  Supreme Court’s EPA decision is a step backward in fighting climate change, experts warn – CBS.  See, China is still building coal plants, and where is environment in the Constitution?  Obama the coal killer and Slow Joe the sanctionizer might be stopped, yet.

But, in the meantime:  Triple A says national gas price today is running $4.842.  But the well-informed whisper number is $8-bucks by Christmas.

Weekend Ho!

Neighbors over Sunday for a libation and solar panel talk.

Food and beverage operations will begin momentarily.

Rain showers due in tonight.  Dandy timing because of the danger of Fourth of July fireworks-spawned fires.

Chart and aftermath of this week’s trading on Peoplenomics tomorrow.

Not sure which project for ShopTalk Sunday… and yes, I will try to get up and write something Monday, too.

And like Elaine says “Look out for the other guy” – weekend like this the odds of an oncoming driver being lit are extremely high.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net