Today’s Peoplenomics goes well beyond the charts. We are looking at two possible engines behind the long economic cycle—and they may be different faces of the same problem. One says human beings and institutions are reaching a cognitive saturation point: information, complexity and machine-generated options are arriving faster than the Slow Layer can absorb, verify … Read More

The market took a little knock down Monday (“sell the rumor”) so now – at last – the answer to the question which has been (poignantly) hanging in the wind since last week. How Bad is it?  Well, you may not believe this one… “The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.4 percent … Read More

Lindsey Graham’s passing has stirred up a hornets’ nest of speculation about his death and his Ukraine trip:  Was Lindsey Graham poisoned? Why Iran and Russia are at the centre of conspiracy theories. The Senate vacancy creates a short-duration policy choke point — 88%. Graham’s replacement may come quickly, but until then each absence or … Read More

Doggonit, if this isn’t an interesting column this week. Because it was one of those weeks when “the magic happens” between the ears.  Weeks we learn something deep – and meaningful – about how Life works. Start with Two Broken Tractors Yeah, the Fourth of July weekend didn’t turn out quite right.  Plan was that … Read More

The market may have one more summer rally left in it—but the clock is running. This week’s 41-page Peoplenomics ChartPack lays out the case for a possible final push into the mid August to Labor Day period, while Tuesday’s CPI, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s testimony, bank earnings, and an increasingly unstable war backdrop could pull … Read More

We need to begin with an article reader Hank out on the Big Island cited overnight. Over on Zero Hedge: Strongest El Nino In 75 Years Sets Off Food Supply-Chain Alarm Bells. This is not new to our thinking around here as you know.  Dust Bowls come and go. But from the economics and investment … Read More

We are – right now – in what I call “IHOP Markets.”  Because prices keep waffling. Our best guess (and that’s all market lookaheads are., in all reality), it looks to us like there is clear sailing ahead until Labor Day.  Sure, there is a Fed FOMC in a couple of weeks,. But sure as the … Read More

This morning the “pseudo-normal” period ended. U.S. Central Command confirmed strikes on over 80 Iranian targets — including air defenses, command networks, coastal radar, and IRGC vessels — in response to attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated with strikes toward U.S.-linked facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. The U.S. also revoked … Read More

First, we want to extend sincere wishes for the well-being of readers in the Lake Chelan, Washington area where the Chelan Hills fire (see map here) has really blown up. Wildfires are just one of the modern convergences that come with industrialization.  It’s early in the fire season – which runs to October (and later, … Read More

With a (relatively) even news flow today, we might as well have a look at some serious Fourth of July woo-woo. Long-time readers know that I have a marvelously vivid visual dream world – which occasionally reveals some predictive content.  Other times, it’s just jaw-dropping cool.  And this is something anyone can do – with … Read More

With the hottest part of the summer just weeks off now, it was time to “serious up” on the lower-tech approach to cooling the lean-to greenhouse. If you go back into ancient history, son G2 and I cobbled up the idea a few years back and it has been a lot of fun. Not that … Read More

While the fireworks pop and grills fire up this Independence Day weekend, markets are showing some interesting gearing under the hood. Our latest look at M2 growth versus the Aggregate Index points to roughly 4-to-1 leveraging of new money into gains over the past year—21.9% higher on the index side. That kind of disconnect has … Read More