Betting on Future Weekend: A Wager Window Wander

May 12, 2023 by George Ure

As gamblers and adventurers, most of us go through Life with a storyline and plot holding our course for us. While the id and ego fill-in with a heroic personality. Sometimes it makes sense, sometimes not.

Lately, I’ve been thinking a lot about the relationship between Humans and Physics. The latter is where pseudo-randomness occurs while the former is trying to “understand it all.” Which gives rise to Religions, Superstitions, Cults, and Charlatans. Plus, or minus, a soft world government orchestrating God-knows-what besides taxes, movement restriction, and pedophilia.

The Gambler’s Dilemma

Decades ago, in the midst of a world-class divorce which cost me a million – I stumbled into a simple coping mechanism. I’d pretend that every day when I woke up, I was being escorted onto the scariest ever E Ticket Ride at Disney. Something that would make Space Mountain look tame.

Because Life is a lot like that. We’re “on for the ride” – have no idea where we get off, and to some degree (50 percent?) the outcome is only partially under our control.

I’ve begun to wonder of late whether exerting control greater than 50 percent constitutes a “winning Life” when the LRE (*life review experience, commonly reported by near-death experiencers) in The End, shows up. We all get to find out. Judge for yourself.

Which has what to do with economics, markets, and squeezing a good life out of Turd Planet?

Here, too, we’re stumbling into walls a lot. But metaphors and allegories are useful as hell. Everything to Parables to Masonic plays and Plato in the cave with Glaucon.

The role of such psychological supports is they are onboard directional indicators. They serve like the “continuation algos” in GPS. That will – for a short time, anyway, keep us “on course” when “signal” has been lost. Values matter hugely.

Signal Recovery

Humans lose their way every night. When you go to sleep, you can’t prove that the waking world you woke up in the next day is the same that you dozed off from the night before. Yet, on waking, we go through ritual and discovery to help reassure ourselves that – identical to GPS – we are still in the same (general) location, and we can keep-on keeping on into the New Day ahead.

Which is where this morning’s metaphor springs from. As long as the specific Bets placed in previous waking days look about the same, we will go through another well-bounded day being “role fillers” and “cued Actors” in the Cosmic drama of Universe.

The very limited role of UrbanSurvival in all this is to point out specific features on today’s E Ticket Ride and raise questions or point out important details and scenes that may be missed in the careening ride through Life.

Good with that?

Surveying The Park

For our Amusement: We can make useful plans by simply taking a look at the Reality Park we’re sharing. In this one:

Our Economy is still in the economic ICU because of corruption and Covid; we hope you see the differential gradients.
Worse is that Covid began The Great Quitting. Where people by the millions have renounced commuting in favor of work from home and in the process have destroyed commercial real estate.
Serial arrests and trials of all manner (arising from both crooked “Parties”) tell us our choicing of Leadership sucks.
And markets inform us that most of our financial decisions are based on financial absurdity.

This last is laughable to the extreme. Imagine, if you can, a time traveler going back to 1946 – right after World War II and proclaiming “In the Future we will invest in money itself.” Get the straight jacket. Investments can (or, at least shouldn’t be) piled on top of one another to compound gains. Why, that’d be a Ponzi scheme. Yet here we are in present – swimming in ’em.

Just delightful, ain’t it?

Now, into the Casino

The “machines” with the highest payoffs this weekend include the following:

Taiwan: Weather in that part of the world is good for invasion this month. And look at the news flow related to it: The Trouble With Taiwan – CounterPunch.org is worth a read. The Hill has been wondering Is war in Taiwan inevitable? It depends on whom you ask… And here come the partisans, driven forward by government agendas and God knows what else: Former NBA star Howard stirs Chinese anger by calling Taiwan a country | Reuters. The Payoff Table on this one is high. Win and we may contain our successor Global Empire Builder for a while longer. Lose and we collapse supply chains, set up massive shortages but long-term return to our resilient roots. How you “score the jackpot” here depends on your Age.
Ukraine: The payoff table on this one is high, too. If the West wins, the European Union – a kind of globalist good-old-boy club – will have an opportunity to wrangle more countries into its ranks. This increases revenue which, in turn, makes the EU look like something other than the yesterday’s news and global power that it really is. Russia looks at the war as existentialist in nature, so Vlad Putin has set up a line of trip wires and red lines not to cross or he will go nuclear. Tensions are high as Ukraine promotes Remembering first fallen US volunteer fighter buried in Ukraine (kyivindependent.com) which tells Russia (and argues for world opinion) that any U.S. forces in-theater are volunteers, not “officially warring.” Putin, though, says launching of depleted uranium into his country will unbind his restraint on use of fissile materials coming West. While the wheels of this machine spin into the weekend, the Arms Shipments are speeding up. With predictable blow-back: Russia Threatens to Destroy U.K. for Giving Ukraine Storm Shadow Missiles (newsweek.com). Fact is, a lot of arms are going “elsewhere” (which should scare hell out of Israel because violent Middle Eastern groups are on the “getting” end. However, Ukraine’s selling the “We’re doing our best” in Ukraine’s Dogged Effort to Get Weapons to the Battlefield, Not the Black Market. All guns and money, though: US ambassador accuses South Africa of providing Russia weapons, ammo (navytimes.com). And the wheels go round-and-round, into the weekend. Meantime, though, the drums beat for “War!” Russia denies reports of Ukraine breakthrough ahead of counteroffensive. Countdown to tactical is still on and even more so since we’ve had radiation sensors in for a month now to see which reactor birthed fire when its unleashed.
Commercial Real Estate is Dead. Co-victims of Covid will be the banks, insurance companies, and other long-term players who will be stiffed as insolvency must – eventually – come to light. But the wheels haven’t stopped yet, so train-spotting is the day game on this one: Where the Highest Levels of CRE Distress Are Right Now | GlobeSt. Along with another “spotter report” in Which cities have the emptiest office buildings? It’s not New York or San Francisco… Our Houston Bureau reports (spoiler alert) that places like Houston and Dallas are hardest hit. But that’s as much to do with the Buy’ed ’em foxtrot-uniform energy polices striking the heartland. The Wall Street Journal is leading the chorus whistling in the graveyard on this: Stop Equating the Latest Bank Failures to the 2008 Crisis. Strangely, my consigliere actually agrees. “The REAL comparison will be to the early late 80’s into 1990s banking debacle. Which wiped out most of the banks in Texas, and virtually ALL the S&Ls. People just don’t read their economic history on the late S&L Collapse.” No doubt, he will be correct. That’s why he gets a monumental retainer.
Corruption Goes Partisan: Speaking of which, my consigliere will NOT be volunteering his expertise pro bono to the Santos case. “Yes I’m admitted to the Federal Bar but not a case I’d touch.” That’s the wheel-spinner where Rep. George Santos Skewered As ‘A Disgrace’ In Democratic Challenger Ad. “He’s a poster child for the rest on the Hill, panned our advisor. We trust the GOP ad with Hunter Biden on the rotisserie will be along momentarily. Huddled around this machine we see the World Liar Finals playing out, too: Ex-CIA Director John Brennan testifies before House weaponization panel (nypost.com). Inspecting the machine’s cartoonlike face, we notice it looks like a crowd of Pinocchio’s.

We could go on all day with this line of contexting. Point is, living life is always a gamble – usually a good one. But, this weekend, we have a lot that can go wrong ahead of Monday. If there’s a lesson from gambling, it all comes down to “Don’t.”

OK, So You Don’t Listen…

Some balance of trade minutia was just dropped. Don’t mean a hill of beans. The wheels will keep spinning:

“Prices for U.S. imports increased 0.4 percent in April following a 0.8-percent decline in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Higher fuel prices drove the advance in April. The price index for U.S. exports rose 0.2 percent in April, after declining 0.6 percent the previous month.

Imports

U.S. import prices advanced 0.4 percent in April, the first monthly increase since December 2022. Despite the April rise, the price index for U.S. imports declined over the past year, falling 4.8 percent on a 12-month basis for the second consecutive month. Those were the largest over-the-year drops since the index decreased 6.3 percent in May 2020.

Exports

U.S. export prices increased 0.2 percent in April, after declining 0.6 percent the previous month. Higher prices for nonagricultural exports and agricultural exports in April each contributed to the overall advance. The price index for U.S. exports fell 5.9 percent from April 2022 to April 2023, the largest over-the-year drop since a 6.7-percent decline in May 2020.

Could you have worked for a Big Six accounting firm? Imported prices are going up at an annualized 4.9 percent rate. While export revenues were going up at a rate of 2.42 percent. Want to tell us how that works out over time, Einstein?

Meanwhile, the BTC level was down into the $26,350 area when we looked. We’ll spend today in Science Lab watching to see if Lower BTC drives > Lower tangibles like the PGM group which in turn should drive > markets into the shitter by the close. A good time will be had by all.

Delusionally: BTC Bulls Need Progress on the US Debt Ceiling to Deliver $28,500 (fxempire.com). But wait, says someone in our crowd of “wandering gamblers.” “Isn’t Bitcoin supposed to be INDEPENDENT of Federal monetary screw-ups?” Well, yes and no. You need to understand how intermarket arbitrage works and that’s not on the tour this morning.

Still, we can hint at $23,000 (or lower) by the close Monday. But that, too, would be another wager. And our wagers are purely for entertainment.

Cutting Room Floor

Some things are outside (but just a bit) of our Gambler’s World in Crisis framework. Not too far out, though:

Democrats (*and other communists) are holding Social Security hostage, exactly as predicted here. As if our opinion of Chucky Schemer couldn’t go lower, we noticed Sen. Chuck Schumer warns of “social security shutdown” if U.S. defaults on debt. Makes us upchuck.

Our “Earthquake Tireds” data and comment quest was right. In addition to the 7.6 in Tonga (right in the predictive window) we may have just seen a foreshock as 5.5 magnitude earthquake in Northern California knocks out CHP 911 dispatch (eastbaytimes.com). Surely, you ain’t surprised? (“And don’t call me Shirley…”)

The Second Mexican-American War resumes today, With Joe Biden Officiating as Title 42 restrictions end and the Invasion resumes. What is Title 42? US Covid-19 asylum policy explained. We have already lost this border war – one reason we told friends long ago “You don’t want to buy property within 500 miles of the border, no matter what.”

Are we the only ones who remember 26-time Epstein traveler Bill Clinton screwed the country and border back in his term? The President’s News Conference With President Ernesto Zedillo of Mexico. Where NAFTA and Border 21 were advertised in advance? Where the Mexican prez (at the time) said:

“We have spoken about our border, and we agreed to work to make it clean and safe and to make it an opportunity for productive activities and well-being. This is the intention of the Frontera Veinte-Uno program or the Border 21 program between our nations.”

Democrats, in intervening years, have pretty well shoved Border 21 down the memory hole. But websites like https://border21.com echo the warning of “botched borders over time” to all who will listen/read. Which is damn few children since the Greatest Generation has mostly checked out as these half-assed pansies of Wokeness and Correctitude showed up dancing the Marxist jig. Turning once Fortress America into the United States of Victims. (“Now, where’s my money?”)

Naw – maybe that’s enough “hard reality” for one week. Except to say anyone stupid enough to confuse “equity” scamming with “Equality” shouldn’t be a citizen.

More on the Peoplenomics side tomorrow. Enjoy the casino and have a few free drinks. Dulls the pain of our failing Reality.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

PPI – UI Filings – Meandering to Down Markets

May 11, 2023 by George Ure

The Mexico Invasion begins anew today. We’ll get to that down the page so as not to get topic-banned in search… ahem…

Let’s instead start the day with P.P.I. – Producer Price Index – numbers. Because while we are still shocked at the stupidity of [controlled] media running up someone’s book in the market Wednesday, PPI is a look up the supply chain a ways to see what’s coming next. Wait no longer!

“The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices fell 0.4 percent in March and were unchanged in February. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended in April.

In April, 80 percent of the rise in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.3-percent increase in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods advanced 0.2 percent.:

Unlike the runaway hype around CPI, this moderation is likely a useful indicator. Rally ho? Well, let’s talk gearing of globalism, for a sec.

From here, it’s not a stretch to notice that BTC was down into the $27,000s again. And since BTC is a proxy for a mashup of Chinese economic controls and inflation fears, with a hefty dose of hacker ransoms, we know what could logically follow.

See, when BTC goes down, the purchasing power of the Dollar has gone up. Which then ripples into Forex where the stronger dollar whack gold and silver upon yon pee-pees. Noticing this, inflation waning, commodities get cheaper and profits of American companies look more promising.

Still, momentum is a powerful thing. We would not be surprised to see the rally make another run up for the first half-hour if at all. Then another down, which should last several trading hours. Ending in the Big Set Up into the weekend.

We continue to be shocked at the implied “no recession” mantra in the MainStream. For example, this morning’s report Inflation data points to Fed pause on rate hikes. We need to all sit back and remember introductory statistics. The PPI today is good, but?

No, there was no IMPROVEMENT or POINTING in the CPI report. (Jesus, please dispense some of the Almighty’s numerical acuity on these people, please.)

The Fed says “We look mostly at CPI less food and energy.” No change on that line as we pointed out (with similar vitriol, disgust, and disbelief in what passes for “colleges” have turned out as “journalists”).

Now, it ain’t all bubbly and caviar. Unemployment filings are up noticeably this week:

After the data, markets turned down.

Parrots-not-reporters.com is another one of those million-dollar ideas we had. You could AI the shit out of it and leave it unattended to print cash. But at 74 and 80, we’re too busy packing in memories to leave the planet with. Before exiting to the all-expenses paid, tax-free, dead zone in a decade or two. So, here’s what up: if you want to become fabulously wealthy as a net mogul, have at it. You’ll never run out of juicy shit to write about.

Marketizations

25-years ago, we pioneered a kind of equal-dollar Aggregate of multiple financial markets. (Because Wall Street lies, but that’s a longer discussion…)

While updated twice weekly on our premium content site (Peoplenomics.com), we’re also mindful that people in general will find the view interesting, and if nothing else, entertaining.

We were wondering aloud on the subscriber side Wednesday as to whether this would be a Wave 4 going into a final higher 5 over summer. Before the Big Yellow Scale 1 down results in the inevitable Wave 3 down amidst war this fall.

Attention in 3Chuck land: FTSE 100 and EU markets open higher ahead of BoE rate decision. Raise rates and like it, gd-it.

OK – What’s the market telling us?

Hard to know with any precision – yet.

When China peacefully skydives into Taiwan, and the U.S. does nothing but minor blustering but Nuclear War Averted by Joe (reelect Joe! God, I can hear it already.). All lines out this way as a “Wag the Dog” meets Cuban Missile Crisis. We’ve even got the requisite Kennedy surname walk-on, which I’m sure our Winnipeg news analyst will find delightful grist in forthcoming analytics in the Comments section.

We are not the only ones eyeing the chessboard and getting Harmon-sized headaches (If you didn’t get the Queen’s Gambit ref, never play chess!). The 1945 article here is excellent: World War III: Could America Stop China from Invading Taiwan? – 19FortyFive

Reader Asks, BTW: What did FUTT mean? Since the second word in FMTT is “me” in this alt.spell it means “us.” Because of stories like the preceding we figure that a bad finale is, more or less, inevitable.

Cue the Devil

While we wait for the global Chihuly displays to be placed, we’ve been eyeing the possible showdown in the works between Vlad Bad and the Wandering Wagner leadership. Which could go badly. Egos, right? Wagner Leader Brazenly Calls Out Putin Amid New International Pressure |(usnews.com).

With shades at the ready, review Wagner boss Prigozhin: Ukrainian offensive has started around Bakhmut flanks | Reuters and air it out on Comments. Wagner wins and then shares power? No way of knowing how it will progress.

The Mexico Invasion – II

Our traitors, corporatists, and ego shills in Washington are letting Mexico win the Second Mexican American War that president Eisenhower let begin by failing to secure the border when we could.

While Negligent Joe has failed too (admittedly, we’re not surprised), bunches of towns and counties along the (what used to be a…) border have already declared States of Emergency. What impact could ending Title 42 have on border cities?

Both Elaine and I love Mexico and Mexicans. What we don’t like is “breaking and entering and paying for it by passing out guns and drugs on America’s streets.” While the extreme Left Marxists in America scream “IF you oppose open borders, you’re a racist!” bullshit.

Use the door (border crossings) please.

Fact is, Pappy is right again: “If you want to be a successful country in 20-309 years, fight a war with the U.S.” Which worked dandy for Germany and Japan. Southeast Asia is coming on, too. Look where your electronics are made lately. So yeah, waterfront, and requiring a workforce of 50-billion new leftwing voters to teach SSL and ESL – yeah, we’ve screw up another global heritage region by failing to contain ourselves. Idiocy marches on.

Snorts and Shorts

We’re sure that whatever Global Warming might appear, its au natural. But Hot Air? All over the place. Today’s Hot Air Reads (HARs):

A highly edumacated retired (but not really) olive drabber I know told me a while back that what we’re all (sentient, earthlings) going through is likely the result of complexity. I reassured him the right modeling platform would be viral infections not complexity.

Networks created Thought Virus – a human first?

As we see in the news flows every morning, people egotistically assess themselves as “complex.” Naw, not hardly. Ask Andy. Point is we’ve never seen a global self-deluded civilization before. Well, except for the previous network parms handed down through legends of the tower of Babal.

We can solve climate change by simply turning off the Internet. At that, all environment-wrecking crypto mining stop, along with 95 percent of commerce shortly after. Followed by mass shooting looting…yessir. Climate change solved, energy conserved, and the Georgia Guidestones fulfilled. Whew! Where were we?

Of course, we don’t really need catastrophism anymore. Since we have Joe Biden: Biden unveils sweeping EPA rules to force power plants to slash nearly all emissions. Techno dunce, anyone?

Or, Gavin Gruesome. Because he’s “done played” California Blacks by letting a reparations narrative take root and then going stupid in mid-thought. Gavin Newsom’s reparations dodge proves Democrats see them only as a political stunt (nypost.com) Shit fire and save matches: We were waiting to see his “Racist Free Lunch Machine” debut.” (This may be the only place left on Earth where the difference between Equal and Equity (and pandering) is clear. Stick around and you might learn mental acuity which our readers are exceptionally proficient in.

ATR: Catting around CNC Build

Cooler day here in East Texas, Wednesday. Son G2 was busy with projects and with Elaine reorganizing the kitchen for the third time in 120-days, I went to work on building the CNC machine and taking pictures of the build for ShopTalk Sunday this weekend.

Just as I’m really getting into it (frame alignment matters), here comes this terrible yeowling. Yup, the feral cats had decided to play “hard to get” around the tractor. That’s more than “done it” for us. We’re likely to set a live trap for Sam and give him a ride to Dr. Snippet’s place.

The ultra-low carb, high protein diet is going great. I’ll report back on my recipe idea for a clone of those Egg Bites at Starbucks. Planning to make a bunch in the steam oven this morning. G2’s keto firehouse soup tonight.

More showers and cooler than usual temps continue here in the underbelly of the Midwest. Highs are still running 4-5 degrees lower than normal. And what a year for the lawn. Makes me want to dig out the sticks.