Three Times Tuesday may sound like cranky-old-man math. But it’s really a reference to three clock points today that could drive the future. Or at least give the markets an excuse to have another nervous breakdown. Clock Point One: Oil. Oil prices are one of those market indicators that can make a perfectly good rally … Read More

Buy the rumor, sell the elections? It’s going to be a hard morning on the bears who crawled under the bed Friday fearing the end of the world.  We’re sure the dust bunnies appreciated the visit, though. News Compressor: ON Please refer to your Program for the layout of today.  Nothing-then-something is the planning schema … Read More

In keeping with now being retired (or retarded, your call) life is slowly moving over into the “more time for survival, research” column.  From now, UrbanSurvival will have pertinent news summaries with the occasional research, economic, or “whatever moves me” commentary. The key change around here is personal time allocation. I can get a briefing … Read More

Monday could be one of the more revealing market sessions of the year. The bulls will be selling normalcy, hoping for a rally back toward the broken 85-day moving average. The bears will be watching for something uglier: the possibility that the AI investment boom has begun transitioning from unlimited promises to expensive financial reality. … Read More

Here is the problem in a nutshell: In 1929 (whose Crashiversary hit this week) it took about 55 Calendar days and 37 Tradintg days for the onset of the Depression to show up. The immediate problem ahead?  The next two weeks are like to “turn to shit before your eyes.”  Not saying they will.  For now, … Read More

That is the question today. Asia was relatively “chill” overnight, save the KOSPI which is almost down to 5,900. But this gets me to first things: My consigliere called Wednesday to remind me to put a book by on my reading list. Wang Huning’s Book: “America against America” (1991) – on Amazon here. Here’s the … Read More

Because of retirement – and having quit the clicks and ads game long ago – we are moving our server plan to something cheaper.  UrbanSurvival comes out of my pocket – and the only revenue source for all our work continues to be Peoplenomics.com subscriptions. Details here, if interested. As a result of this movement, … Read More

Lingo matters: “The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, … Read More

The market may have one more uphill run left in it. In today’s Peoplenomics ChartPack, our Aggregate Index is back above its 85-day moving average—the “line in the sand”—while the Magic Ovals and state-variance studies leave room for additional upside. The fast bulls are still ahead of the slow bulls. That keeps a rally in … Read More

You’ve heard the stories at the bar.  “You want the Good news, or the Bad about inflation?” asks a player. “Uh…Ure call….” “OK, here’s the Housing data – you work it out!” Year-Over-Year The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 2.1% annual gain in … Read More

Thumb Twiddlers, gather round.  We have one presser, one half-hour to Housing Data. and a day after lunch for the Fed. Presser firster: I would paste in all kinds of numbers back in the old days, but I’m retired (sort of) and don’t do word salad before noon, thanks. Now? Lower head, applying nose to … Read More

We kick off Fed Week with the CFNAI – Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator – just out: adjust the rearview accordingly. “The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.07 in September from –0.08 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from August, and two … Read More