Lobbying the Fed, Job Week, and a Woo-Woo

I have so much “energy flow” going on, it’s ridiculous.  I mean, seriously nuts.  Up since 3 AM on a hyper roll:

  • Peoplenomics tomorrow is the first 3-thousand-word block of a book on Life Management.  Sure, everyone knows time-management, but what about all that shit shoe-horned into available time?  (Already, 5,000 words into it…)
  • ShopTalk Sunday column this weekend shows the build G2 and I did of an HF Radio manpack from start to finish.  Worked great – talked (voice, SSB) to Arlington, Virginia on 20-meters with 4 watts while walking around.  Longish but way fun!
  • And gobs and oodles of “things in Life” getting squared away – and  at the end of this morning’s column, a strange case of Woo-Woo,

For now, let’s go “Lobby the Fed” shall we?

Hey Fed!  

What were you thinking?  Use the ‘Rona as an excuse for an economic blowdown?  Then have a war in Ukraine to kick up the Death Industries?  Make up money while the value of the dollar is rising based on unsustainable (and maybe not even repayable) rates of interest?  WTF?

Lookie here, dudes:

What I think will happen today? 

We may see a sell-off early, but by this afternoon the market’s half-assed attempt to “lobby the Fed” might collapse.  Then with a rally tomorrow, we have penciled in a rally (which could be leading us to a buy-the-rally and then sell-the-news when the Fed raises tomorrow afternoon.  However, the market has an opposite count still possible (collapse into the Fed then an accommodative talk from the chair and a rally on hype following).

My sense is that the lower right corner circle above is just coming down to the Wave 3 expectation zone. Which is right around the (Aggregate Index) 30,000 area.  Or, if you forgot, I told you on April 25th where this looked to be going – just under 30,000.  For the trend to drop that far, we needed time:

Now that we have run the clock to keep the slope of the curves where we expect them, the wishy-washy can last a bit longer, but my gut (NOT TRADING ADVICE!) says we’re headed down 3-5% from here sooner than later.

After that?

A Relief Rally while the Fed pauses to watch the disaster of their own making (you’d stop at your own train wreck to watch, right?).  That will goose things skyward maybe around May options, perhaps?  We’ll see.  Maybe fireworks for the Bulls in June.  Patience and read the damn tape.

Money Not So Funny

More laps toward collapse popping up – only a month or three off our pace:  50% of market is in a bubble, Dan Suzuki warns as Fed gets ready to meet.  Oh, duh.

And more obviousness, if you haven’t had Ure fill yet: Paul Tudor Jones says he can’t think of a worse financial environment for stocks or bonds right now .

35-min to the Open, stock futures turned positive.  Still, could be an exit rally for the Big Players.  We’ll see by 11 AM Eastern, I guess.  Ure has a toe in shorts going into today.  But I’m and idiot and if you think that’s advice, you’re a fool to boot.

Big (but small) Items

Juris Leakus Supreme Court has voted to overturn abortion rights, draft opinion show.  The self-congratulatory liberal press will swing in this, but Ure sees a HUGE legal issue: Who leaked this and isn’t leaking that a felony?  Liberals of JustUs so don’t hold your breath waiting.

Oh-oh… Hurt media walk backward time:  Oliver Darcy on Twitter: “—@DRUDGE himself contacted @TaylorLorenz to ask for a correction after she said in tweets that a Drudge editor had harassed her.”  Potato Chip and the Drooler must have a “walk-back school on the web somewhere…

Did you pay attention to Ure’s Solar Panel Investment we stood up back in 2008?  Get Ready for Another Energy Price Spike: High Electric Bills.

OPSEC for Idiots file:  U.S. drone carrying guns intercepted after flying into southwestern Ontario.  “When guns are outlawed, only outlaws will have guns” sound familiar, buddy?

Covid Testing Farce, I:  “OK, if you REALLY get Covid,” Covid ICS-400 son G2 showed me “You will see the wide second test line – like mine here, for months if not years.”  Which has us wondering how it is Kamala Harris tests negative for Covid and will return to White House on Tuesday.  So, her line went just where, where exactly?

No dad, that happens.  You’re being paranoid..”

Uh….

Farcical Demoncrats who don’t think we’re paying attention II:  COVID Alert NY: Cases Rise in City as Omicron Subvariants Spread.  Maybe the NE Liberal paranoid power-grabbers should snag fresh tests from the ‘Mala, huh?

ATR:  Woo-Woo is Driving

Elaine just past her 79th birthday.

We went in to the Texas DMV office several days ahead of time.  “Nope!  She needs to have a Birth Certificate on file due to XYZ REAL I.D. law…” we were told.

This wasn’t enough to phase me:  I anticipate life as best I can.  I whipped out Elaine’s passport.  “This should settle it.  Passport is a REAL ID acceptable form of identification.”

The (pleasant) clerk examined it.  “No sir, this passport is expured.”

We weren’t going anywhere, but this clerk was not running a border checkpoint, either,  so WTF?

“You will have to bring her original (emphasized) birth certificate in.”

Which was an issue since I had looked for it and nowhere to be found.

Ended up having to order a new original (Oregon) and even that turned into a train wreck:  Got an email from Vital Statistics out (in brain-damaged liberal land) “Before we can release her birth certificate to you, you must prove you are entitled to it.  Please provide a copy of your Marriage License.

OK.  Another bout of flying PDFs.

Finally, my buddy Justin the UPS driver got the overnight here late Friday, but I managed to book a Monday revisit with TX DPS.

The clerk was a delight.  Took a couple of pictures to get a great “look” Elaine was happy with.

On the other hand: a process that demands (*after tracking Elaine’s driving record for more than a half century plus in Arizona, Washington, Florida, California, and Texas) to prove she is a citizen despite an expired passport, DD-214 and student pilot license, is so seriously flawed it’s a JOKE.

Hell, the FAA STILL doesn’t put pilot photos on aircraft licenses – and I hold two such cards; one for the fixed-wing and one as a commercial remote vehicle (drone) pilot.

What kinda bullshit Stalinesque Kool-Aid are they serving in Washington?  No REAL ID for pilots, but for 79 YO former bunnies?

Stress abounded, but finally, Monday around 2:00 PM, it was finally done.

OK:  The woo-woo.

Elaine turned-in before me last night, but she left WOAI (Michael berry show) streaming on Alexa.

….so yeah, I’m 88 Michael, and DPS is demanding I bring in my birth certificate.  They’re doing this now with everyone in Texas who renews and is 79 or older…”

Could have pushed me over with a feather.

But the question demanding an answer is served:

What the hell reason is there for having people turn in birth certificates for the first time in their lives at Age 79 and above?

In a Google search, an 86-year old “White supremacist” is cited.  But I’ve got $20 bucks on he was suffering hard-onset dementia more than “supremacist” bullshit.

So WT actual F?

Seriously strange shit is afoot, brothers and sisters.  Really strange shit, my fellow tax chattel.

Write when you get rich (or click comments to offer answers)

George@Ure.net

Testimony of Product Tester 1078

Sometimes, it’s hard to write directly about “what the data says.”  Because, many times, people will not accept ‘raw data.’ Our socialization programs us to think a certain way.  It’s hard to “bug out” of the dominant social paradigm.

Occasionally, though, bugouts happen – not due to any special onboard biasing. It can arise because not everyone is “equally awake” on this trip called life. Regardless of parenting and society pressure to conform.

That’s why people – like fish – school up, you see.  They auto-seek “fish” like themselves.  It’s a good thing – and bad.  Good because it makes for a degree of cohesion in politics and religion, for example.  Bad because schooling up – by its very nature – is not “new idea-friendly.”

Interestingly, after my ER visit last week, a strong vivid dream experience giving a much larger than expected perspective on Life and Death (and in turn, investing) wandered through my existence.  Yes, something of a woo-woo event.

While I’ll tell it in the form of fiction, it nevertheless is worth considering going forward. Since we all die, think of it as another useful “compiler run” of what the waking-state data around us points toward.

The “harder data first” though:  Our ChartPack today is profoundly interesting.  So is that fartstorm of “who has gas” stories in Europe.  A few headlines and economic data that’s sure to light up some neurons.

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