WW III: Slow Boil & Data Dump Thursday

Our (soon to be Mars-like) “simmer on” planet continues its escalation toward unthinkable devastation.  But seems no one cares.  Instead, a higher open for stocks and “normalcy” is ruling the House of Cards.

We will get into Markets in a sec. But first, remembering “Must be Present to Win” is an immutable law, we’ll begin with…

The War Game

As we explained yesterday (on Peoplenomics), the only obstacle to Global War is the waiting game between Israel (which is likely to use nuclear “bunker busters”) and Russia (likely to use tactical nukes) on NATO/Ukraine.  Neither wants the blame for First Use.  Since history will judge this “The War Crime that lit-off World War III.”

For now, the “low simmers” of Global War include the U.S.-Mexico front, the China-Taiwan front, the North vs. South Korea front, the Turkey-Cyprus front, the Serbia-Kosovo front, the Ukraine-Russia front, the Israel-Iran front, and (escaping notice of many) the India-Pakistan front. Global conflagration could ignite from any of these.

Another escalation looming is a direct flare-up between Russia and Turkey, which is a NATO member.  This means Russia further engaged NATO directly this week as Russia Carries Out Missile Strikes Against Turkish Ships In Kherson – Charter’97 .

Some offer the potential for “slow escalation” from the standpoint of American investors, while others are quick. As an example of the slow ignition, we just learned this week how India, Pakistan came ‘too close’ to nuclear conflagration in 2019: Pompeo (thekashmirwalla.com).

The prospect of the 10-minute flashover arises as Russia has routed hypersonic missile carrying hardware into the Atlantic.  Vladimir Putin stages provocative war games with ‘hypersonic missile launch’ – Mirror Online.

Curiously, American neocons have known they are playing “risky business” as they began running the New York nuclear “public service announcements” in the middle of last year.  If you haven’t seen them yet, they are on Youtube here.  We would have thought NOT pressing WW III would have been a dandy “public service.”  Not my wheelhouse, not my shipwreck.

That’s Cynical George’s battle space overview.

Simmer is Heating Up

The problem Biden administration planners are facing is akin to the juggling of “hot potatoes.”

This weekend, for example, the U.S. and Israel will be holding drills (but will it remain just practice) to simulate an attack on Iranian nuclear enrichment and weapon assembly areas. As The Drive reports: Biggest U.S.-Israel War Games Ever Are Underway.  We can’t think of a slicker move than for the “exercise” to “go live” when expectations are low.

But such braggadocio is worrisome for home war gamers because everyone knows (or should, at some level) that a country that doesn’t have a Budget deal, can hardly afford to piss away resources when there are at least nine conflict fronts to address.

The hottest of these is, of course, Ukraine.  Which – having receive promises of improved technology tanks from the (slow) Biden administration, is now demanding advanced aircraft, as well: Ukraine will now push for F-16 fighter jets, government adviser says | The Hill,

The problem (and it’s part of the deceptive neocon playbook) is that as soon as enough advanced war materiel is in hand, Ukraine will begin striking behind the current front.  Oh, yeah, this means the neocons are still trying to goad Russia into first use.  Ukraine Predicts Attacks on Major Russian Cities (thedailybeast.com).

From here, it’s only a matter of time. Flash, boom, bang. Sis, boom, bah.

Rolling Through the Data

I wish all these reports didn’t drop at 8:30 AM Eastern – because it gives me only a few minutes to post.  But let’s run through them:

Durable Goods Orders

Our problem child in the data is Durable Goods weren’t just good – they were so strong that they give the Fed room to raise a half or more next week.

Gross Domestic Product

This report was fairly close to expectations:

International Trade

This was also much higher than expected:

Part of this could be blamed on the falling Dollar, though, since it takes more (of weaker bucks) to buy the same goods.

Inventories Data

Inventories is seen “in bounds” mainly.

New Unemployment Claims

This shows falling new filers and again, is supportive of a Fed rate hike, as we figure:

We went short going into the close Wednesday – purely a gamble –  but it was a difficult coin toss.  See, if the numbers themselves are good, then the Fed next week may raise rates 1/2 a percent (my money’s on this pick).  If the numbers are bad in the market’s view, then the hype will turn into “With so much bad, the Fed will only raise a quarter…”  Which will send the markets up ahead of the Fed, which will then raise a half point anyway and the market could see a hard-down next week.  Wars, pandemics, and D.C. idiots with no budget, aside.

The News Compactor

News of the Seattle Communists:  Rather than expose illegal city cooperation (and support) with the Capital Hill Uprising, did you see where Seattle officials deliberately ‘purged’ thousands of CHOP-related text messages, despite ‘legal obligation’ to retain them: Federal judge? Awe, but you know ultra-woke looney lefties only apply laws to others, not themselves, right?

Social Courts the Orange Man: Meta to reinstate the Accounts of Donald Trump on Facebook and Instagram.  But now that we know how far the lefties have their [you know what’s] up their [you know what’s] will Trump fall for the bait?

Social Security Hostage-Taking:  We’ve penciled in personal planning for two months of no Social Security income based on the pricks in both parties acting like spoiled little bitches: ‘Where Are Your Cards?’ Democrats Ask GOP as Debt Ceiling Divisions Harden. (What?  You mean it’s not an act?) GTFU – look it up.

Crypto is STILL dirty money department:  Dutch central bank fines Coinbase over €3.3 million for ignoring AML, terror financing rules | NL Times. BTC today is trying to claw back to the $23,000 level today.

Roger’s Good Eyes

Long-time reader (and thus sufferer) Roger out in Tucson is (best I can remember) in his 80’s.  But still sharp as ever and always looking to the future.  So, when he sent me a link to 4 Private Longevity Research Companies (Updated 2023) (investingnews.com), I got to wondering to what degree this might have the potential to become a new hotbed for hot money?

Pardon the link to Bombshell Report: Spike Proteins Invade All Major Organs, Induce Hyperaccelerated Cellular Aging Prompting Shorter Lifespan, but is there a reason this kind of investing could be very important, sooner than later?  We wonder…

ATR: Trees and More

Paul’s Bunyon Department:  After a couple of bids, we have the 100-foot high trees between the house and shop coming down today.  Crew will work it with their bucket truck and it’s a non-trial project since there’s a big propane tank, two buildings, and a power pole with live wiring to work-around.  Might snap a few pix for ShopTalk this weekend.

Houston Bureau Well!  Thanks for the prayers on behalf of our Houston Bureau chief.  She had a successful surgery Monday, although a planned return home Tuesday was delayed by plain crappy weather in the area:

“I’m sure by now you’re aware of the god-awful storm that hit Houston yesterday. The damage was centered citywide, south Houston, Pasadena, Friendswood, Baytown, etc., then headed east towards LA, MS, AL & even parts of AR. That’s the main reason I wasn’t discharged yesterday afternoon…”

Speaking of the TXWX:  There is a chance of snow in the East Texas Outback showing up (depending on forecaster) for a week out from now.  Made a dump run Wednesday and picked up 15-gallons on diesel for the greenhouse diesel heater which continues puttering along.  Details on the install were in one of our ShopTalk Sunday pieces a while back.

Prepping:  You might want to read our prepping piece from last October on these small diesel “parking heaters.”  If the grid goes down, it’s one option to think about for the heating of a home.  Another is to take a cast iron box wood stove, or a medium-large rocket stove, and literally bury it in concrete and make a thermal mass machine, too.  You can find a lot of ideas on sites like this one A Rocket Mass Heater in a Swedish Outdoor Kitchen.

Small Chainsaws:  Since we will be up to our ears in branches from the trees, I’ve recently picked up a small Mini Chainsaw Cordless 4 Inch with Safety Lock, Rechargeable  Lithium. It was like $45 on Amazon.  Don’t know if it will be a “lifetime tool” (like a gas-fired Stihl chainsaw) but with less than a month to age 74, not as much point to buying “lifetime tools” out at this end of the spectrum.

Ham Radio Notes:  My friend (of a mere 70-years) the Major picked up a new Icom 7300 from HRO this week. With the mail-in rebate it came to just a shade under 1-kilobuck which ain’t bad.  I’d have already been on the air – having owned it 48-hours.  But he’s always been one of those “Read the Manual” kind of guys.  I still don’t have the W5GI Mystery Antenna up, so it’s not like I’m a scheduling genius, either.  A like to his Mike and Key Club NVIS presentation is expected for Sunday’s hands-on column.

Off to set up for tree slaughtering…gotta take down Elaine’s clothesline before we “branch” into real work.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

After a Manic Bounce? Monday

Stock markets will be interesting this week on a number of levels.

On one, we may get some insight into how “News and Wars” drive markets.  As Germany goes for MONEY over PEACE as Minister: Germany won’t block Poland giving Ukraine tanks reports the Associated Press.

The Russians, of course, seeing this coming, have been bracing at home: Preparations for conflict with NATO: Anti-aircraft systems in every corner of Moscow-Kremlin fortified, V.Putin’s residence, government buildings, reports the Greek site War 24/7.

War is – like a deadly cancer – metastasizing in lower Europe.  As Ukraine up-armors, the Turks are trying to get some Cold War era British missile frigates to bulk up its naval forces in the short-term.  All while the U.S. is selling arms to both sides of the (energy-based) war pending between Greece and Turkey.  F-35s for Greece and F-16s for Turkey.

The war business is, pardon this: booming.

Walls Work

With demonicrats losing a bit of sway in the District of Corruption, we see evidence continuing to build about the effectiveness of WALLS to define and secure a Nation.

Previous examples we’ve pointed to include the Great Wall of China (one reason China has a 2,500-year history), the also famous Berlin Wall which until 1989 divided Germany since WW II.  And sensible Israeli’s have walled off Palestine; whose behavior has been so bad that neither Egypt nor Israel want the land and people.

All historical context for the story over here: Greece Expanding Border Wall, Calls for EU Help on Migration.  Which is a tale totally full of wall irony.  Especially poignant upon a review of the story on Filmmaker this morning that ““We Had To Shoot the African Scenes in Greece” | Anthony Chen, Drift.”

Irony never gets rusty.

Musical Chairs, Biden Style

Slow Joe Biden’s Chief of Staff is out. Jeff Zients to be named Biden’s next chief of staff, replacing Ron Klain.  I’m reminded of a song, now.. Thomas Dolby,  wasn’t it? She Blinded Me With Science.  We expect to be “Blinded by Zients” now…

Biden apologists are making the best of it Biden’s Cabinet is sticking around, bucking the turnover trend of his predecessors. We are told more changes at the Cabinet are coming as Joe’s Ship of Fools sets sail for the polls in 2024.

If there’s a world left.

I Didn’t Mention?

OK, there’s just one problem not covered so far.

As you might expect (since Ure’s been a reporter for north of half a century) I know a few people who know a few things.

As SOME of the people I (might) know have been real, by-God serious (as in working for Uncle) people of the Men Who Stare at Goats” variety yuou hear things.

What I’m hearing now is sometime between, oh, first week of April to about the 20th of April – somewhere in there – we are in for some massive “entertainment.”

Not sure what this means but picture a world that is gold on the inside and then expands out to white on the surface such that there is “no safe place.”

The term “divine intervention” is used.  Some see different colors (white to purple).  Thing is, while (sorry) we can’t be more specific other than to offer the proximate date range, something big…as in REALLY big…is 74-days ahead popping in remote seeing circles.

To paraphrase one (since we talked of other things) “We don’t need to worry about money, now.  It simply doesn’t matter….”

We have a number of very sensitive readers  so watch the Comments section for feedback and maybe Andy can inquire of The DUDE on our behalf.  HE is seen driving this.  (DUDE, not Andy, just so we’re clear…)

For Now, Money Matters

Eventually, we have to get to the subject of our headline:  For now, Money Matters, although perhaps to a lessening degree, depending on what the looking glass crowd sees and what you Believe in, if you follow.

Dow futures were down 26 earlier while the S&P was down 7.  Giving us a view ahead of:

So, the next pause should be down in the area of the white “3” in the lower right.  IF our intuition about such things works out.

But the commercial hype is in ahead of the open, so no telling – yet.

For Whom the Axe Swings

There was a hint of times ahead as the National Association of Business Economics issues its outlook Sunday:  January 2023 Business Conditions Survey Summary reporting that the “NABE Survey Panel Suggests Probability of 2023 Recession Remains Elevated; Continued Wage Growth and Weaker Sales to Put Pressure on Profit Margins.”

Right in line comes the latest HR grenade in tech as Spotify Seen Cutting Staff as Soon as This Week as Tech Layoffs Mount – Bloomberg.

Seeing a trend?

Tomorrow morning, we get Purchasing Managers and the Richmond Fed’s lookahead after the open.  Wednesday (spine-tingling stuff here) Business Uncertainty mid-morning (and Korea’s GDP if you care in the afternoon).

Thursday is Data Dump Day this week:  Durable Goods, GDP, new UI Filings, International Trade and perhaps the cherry on top will be retail inventories and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.  Friday has Personal Income and Expenses scheduled, but these are always framed as “too little of the first and too much of the second…”

Silly Parties

With the demonicrats tearing down the Constitution and with repugnantcans putting up (at best) a half-assed defense, we look at the future of American Politics as needing a new Marketing Schtick.

We think it’s made a guest appearance as Fox reported VP Harris required people to sign ‘attestation of vaccination’ paper to attend her Florida speech: reports.

Clear?  Democrats are moving in the direction of being the Broke, Borderless, and Vaccinated Party.  Obviously, no ticky, no laundry at Kam’s hoe-down (a dandy, double-entendre, don’tcha think?).  This could go one of two ways for the repugnant’s: They could become the Real Border, Data, and Science Party, OR they could keep up the infighting and continue back-stabbing one-another to death.

The Repugnant’s incompetence continues to be a national embarrassment as Santos’s financial woes pile up, threatening his political career   | The Hill.  Which we view as another rerun of political expediency triumphing over morality, honesty and sanity.  You go, Pugs.

Digital Scrap Heap

10-dead from a Chinese New Year’s Party in Monterey Park this weekend.  Sad, but we’re not clear on a few things.  BERNAMA – Flags in US shall be flown at half-mast following Monterey Park shooting – Biden.  Have we just failed to notice national flag lowering’s for previous mass shooting victims?  Meantime, California lefties are selling the idea it “could have been worse except for our gun laws...”  Yeah, sure, you betcha.  “Don’t wake the woke to the fact Criminals and Crazies don’t follow Laws,” writes the man whose office is 160-feet from his shooting table on his 100-meter range and a Gunfighter’s Inc. Kenai holster…

Lights Out!  No, not an odd reference to my friend Delilah Rene from back in my broadcasting days.  Nope.  Talking about Pakistan suffers big power outage after second grid failure in three months | Reuters.  Things keep edging toward the shitter, over there:  There’s the possibility of a very hot religious war.  See last week’s post on Reddit: First pakistan map proposed by muslim league’s Rahmat Ali to divide India for Muslims : MapPorn.

Cryptomeria is still making the rounds.  As seen in Binance SWIFT partner to ban USD transfers below USD 100k – ThePaypers and as XRP price gathers steam for 45% upswing as Brad Garlinhouse prepares for landslide victory against the SEC (fxstreet.com).  Us?  Still no crypto (and no vax, either).  Feeling more Amish every day – not a bad thing, that.  With BTC knocking on $23,000 we wonder again why the CROOKED/WOKE movement hasn’t turned on this energy squandering, climate wrecking Ponzi scheme.  But again, don’t wake the woke.

ATR: ShopTalk Follow-Up

My friend, Dr. J, is sending me the plans for the 50 Cal. Ammo Can (tall) bug-out VHF ham station based on the Radioddity DB25 which will be cool.

I’d passed along the contributed Ammo Can kit from William of the Radio Ranch.  Dr. J’s very key point:  It’s not in an EMP proof can…

While we were talking, it occurred to me that an equivalent could be made for a low power HF radio, too.  So I’m working on that in background.  I’ve already got an HF Signals uBitX 6.0 and looks like it could be shoehorned in. (Measurements pending)

The idea would be to package the radio, mini tuner, a 4:1 QRP balun, and an 80-10 OCFD out of thin but strong wire.  Mini coax for feeding it (30 feet do?), mic, power cable, and Morse code key would round it out.

This leaves only the power problem in either case (the VHF or the HF radio can):  How much battery could go in a third can?  You’d want as much lithium ion as possible, charge controller and power leads.  Three ammo cans and a solar panel, or two, and seems like that would be pretty good coms.

For some great presentations on NVIS HF, search Youtube.

Toss in one of those cheap $100-class laptops that pop up on Best Buy deals now and then, ported over in advance to Linux, and loaded with FLDigi which then gives you voice, Morse, and all the main digital modes.  FLDigi is supported on Linux, Mac, BSD, and Windows.

(Tired of Ham Radio talk yet?)

Being into Retro Radio Restorations, I’m excited as hell about the scheduled delivery this week of an old BK Dyna Jet 606 tube checker I snagged last week on eBay.  Have an old Heathkit TC-2 and a Precision Apparatus Company (PACO) unit but the BK is simple to calibrate and handles a few transmitter finals, like 6146’s, for example.

OK, on that note off to work on what is quickly turning into an ebook on Future Forecasting with a HUGE amount of material contributed by G.A. Stewart of the Age of Desolation website. On Peoplenomics.com Wednesday.

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net