Our (soon to be Mars-like) “simmer on” planet continues its escalation toward unthinkable devastation. But seems no one cares. Instead, a higher open for stocks and “normalcy” is ruling the House of Cards.
We will get into Markets in a sec. But first, remembering “Must be Present to Win” is an immutable law, we’ll begin with…
The War Game
As we explained yesterday (on Peoplenomics), the only obstacle to Global War is the waiting game between Israel (which is likely to use nuclear “bunker busters”) and Russia (likely to use tactical nukes) on NATO/Ukraine. Neither wants the blame for First Use. Since history will judge this “The War Crime that lit-off World War III.”
For now, the “low simmers” of Global War include the U.S.-Mexico front, the China-Taiwan front, the North vs. South Korea front, the Turkey-Cyprus front, the Serbia-Kosovo front, the Ukraine-Russia front, the Israel-Iran front, and (escaping notice of many) the India-Pakistan front. Global conflagration could ignite from any of these.
Another escalation looming is a direct flare-up between Russia and Turkey, which is a NATO member. This means Russia further engaged NATO directly this week as Russia Carries Out Missile Strikes Against Turkish Ships In Kherson – Charter’97 .
Some offer the potential for “slow escalation” from the standpoint of American investors, while others are quick. As an example of the slow ignition, we just learned this week how India, Pakistan came ‘too close’ to nuclear conflagration in 2019: Pompeo (thekashmirwalla.com).
The prospect of the 10-minute flashover arises as Russia has routed hypersonic missile carrying hardware into the Atlantic. Vladimir Putin stages provocative war games with ‘hypersonic missile launch’ – Mirror Online.
Curiously, American neocons have known they are playing “risky business” as they began running the New York nuclear “public service announcements” in the middle of last year. If you haven’t seen them yet, they are on Youtube here. We would have thought NOT pressing WW III would have been a dandy “public service.” Not my wheelhouse, not my shipwreck.
That’s Cynical George’s battle space overview.
Simmer is Heating Up
The problem Biden administration planners are facing is akin to the juggling of “hot potatoes.”
This weekend, for example, the U.S. and Israel will be holding drills (but will it remain just practice) to simulate an attack on Iranian nuclear enrichment and weapon assembly areas. As The Drive reports: Biggest U.S.-Israel War Games Ever Are Underway. We can’t think of a slicker move than for the “exercise” to “go live” when expectations are low.
But such braggadocio is worrisome for home war gamers because everyone knows (or should, at some level) that a country that doesn’t have a Budget deal, can hardly afford to piss away resources when there are at least nine conflict fronts to address.
The hottest of these is, of course, Ukraine. Which – having receive promises of improved technology tanks from the (slow) Biden administration, is now demanding advanced aircraft, as well: Ukraine will now push for F-16 fighter jets, government adviser says | The Hill,
The problem (and it’s part of the deceptive neocon playbook) is that as soon as enough advanced war materiel is in hand, Ukraine will begin striking behind the current front. Oh, yeah, this means the neocons are still trying to goad Russia into first use. Ukraine Predicts Attacks on Major Russian Cities (thedailybeast.com).
From here, it’s only a matter of time. Flash, boom, bang. Sis, boom, bah.
Rolling Through the Data
I wish all these reports didn’t drop at 8:30 AM Eastern – because it gives me only a few minutes to post. But let’s run through them:
Durable Goods Orders
Our problem child in the data is Durable Goods weren’t just good – they were so strong that they give the Fed room to raise a half or more next week.
Gross Domestic Product
This report was fairly close to expectations:
This was also much higher than expected:
Part of this could be blamed on the falling Dollar, though, since it takes more (of weaker bucks) to buy the same goods.
Inventories is seen “in bounds” mainly.
New Unemployment Claims
This shows falling new filers and again, is supportive of a Fed rate hike, as we figure:
We went short going into the close Wednesday – purely a gamble – but it was a difficult coin toss. See, if the numbers themselves are good, then the Fed next week may raise rates 1/2 a percent (my money’s on this pick). If the numbers are bad in the market’s view, then the hype will turn into “With so much bad, the Fed will only raise a quarter…” Which will send the markets up ahead of the Fed, which will then raise a half point anyway and the market could see a hard-down next week. Wars, pandemics, and D.C. idiots with no budget, aside.
The News Compactor
News of the Seattle Communists: Rather than expose illegal city cooperation (and support) with the Capital Hill Uprising, did you see where Seattle officials deliberately ‘purged’ thousands of CHOP-related text messages, despite ‘legal obligation’ to retain them: Federal judge? Awe, but you know ultra-woke looney lefties only apply laws to others, not themselves, right?
Social Courts the Orange Man: Meta to reinstate the Accounts of Donald Trump on Facebook and Instagram. But now that we know how far the lefties have their [you know what’s] up their [you know what’s] will Trump fall for the bait?
Social Security Hostage-Taking: We’ve penciled in personal planning for two months of no Social Security income based on the pricks in both parties acting like spoiled little bitches: ‘Where Are Your Cards?’ Democrats Ask GOP as Debt Ceiling Divisions Harden. (What? You mean it’s not an act?) GTFU – look it up.
Crypto is STILL dirty money department: Dutch central bank fines Coinbase over €3.3 million for ignoring AML, terror financing rules | NL Times. BTC today is trying to claw back to the $23,000 level today.
Roger’s Good Eyes
Long-time reader (and thus sufferer) Roger out in Tucson is (best I can remember) in his 80’s. But still sharp as ever and always looking to the future. So, when he sent me a link to 4 Private Longevity Research Companies (Updated 2023) (investingnews.com), I got to wondering to what degree this might have the potential to become a new hotbed for hot money?
Pardon the link to Bombshell Report: Spike Proteins Invade All Major Organs, Induce Hyperaccelerated Cellular Aging Prompting Shorter Lifespan, but is there a reason this kind of investing could be very important, sooner than later? We wonder…
ATR: Trees and More
Paul’s Bunyon Department: After a couple of bids, we have the 100-foot high trees between the house and shop coming down today. Crew will work it with their bucket truck and it’s a non-trial project since there’s a big propane tank, two buildings, and a power pole with live wiring to work-around. Might snap a few pix for ShopTalk this weekend.
Houston Bureau Well! Thanks for the prayers on behalf of our Houston Bureau chief. She had a successful surgery Monday, although a planned return home Tuesday was delayed by plain crappy weather in the area:
“I’m sure by now you’re aware of the god-awful storm that hit Houston yesterday. The damage was centered citywide, south Houston, Pasadena, Friendswood, Baytown, etc., then headed east towards LA, MS, AL & even parts of AR. That’s the main reason I wasn’t discharged yesterday afternoon…”
Speaking of the TXWX: There is a chance of snow in the East Texas Outback showing up (depending on forecaster) for a week out from now. Made a dump run Wednesday and picked up 15-gallons on diesel for the greenhouse diesel heater which continues puttering along. Details on the install were in one of our ShopTalk Sunday pieces a while back.
Prepping: You might want to read our prepping piece from last October on these small diesel “parking heaters.” If the grid goes down, it’s one option to think about for the heating of a home. Another is to take a cast iron box wood stove, or a medium-large rocket stove, and literally bury it in concrete and make a thermal mass machine, too. You can find a lot of ideas on sites like this one A Rocket Mass Heater in a Swedish Outdoor Kitchen.
Small Chainsaws: Since we will be up to our ears in branches from the trees, I’ve recently picked up a small Mini Chainsaw Cordless 4 Inch with Safety Lock, Rechargeable Lithium. It was like $45 on Amazon. Don’t know if it will be a “lifetime tool” (like a gas-fired Stihl chainsaw) but with less than a month to age 74, not as much point to buying “lifetime tools” out at this end of the spectrum.
Ham Radio Notes: My friend (of a mere 70-years) the Major picked up a new Icom 7300 from HRO this week. With the mail-in rebate it came to just a shade under 1-kilobuck which ain’t bad. I’d have already been on the air – having owned it 48-hours. But he’s always been one of those “Read the Manual” kind of guys. I still don’t have the W5GI Mystery Antenna up, so it’s not like I’m a scheduling genius, either. A like to his Mike and Key Club NVIS presentation is expected for Sunday’s hands-on column.
Off to set up for tree slaughtering…gotta take down Elaine’s clothesline before we “branch” into real work.
Write when you get rich,