America’s “Lazy Investor” Problem, April Looms

There’s little in economic news today.  And certainly, in the “news flow” only a few things project forward as interesting and worthy of your attention.

Which leaves time to be entertained by the Court System and high-profile cases.  Like Business Insider’s coverage in Everything You Need to Know About Musk’s ‘Funding-Secured’ Trial.

Reading through the case, an interesting thought occurred:  Is this case an example of a whole country becoming “Lazy Investors?”

The high-level view is that a group of investors has sued Elon Musk for claiming  “Funding-Secured” for the sale of Tesla.  When the deal didn’t happen, the investors got angry and “lawyered up.”  It goes to Court, and we all watch.

However, as a compulsive gambler myself – who has learned Day Trading can be done anywhere, has lower Covid risks, and no floor shows compared with Las Vegas – it seems to me the folks in court may be “lazy.” Poor losers.

To us they’re very much like Crypto investors.  Everyone wants something for nothing these days.  Because we living in a world where “the money” – not the utility or the core values matter.  No sir: it’s all about “the dough” and in the spirit of both Woke and the “Full Employment for Lawyers Act” here come the lawsuits.

It’s a gross oversimplification in my head today:  But “piling on to a hot stock” is not “investing.”  See, there is an “art” to actual investing that goes way beyond the “pile on” to this week’s hot stock on the story of a takeover to come.

Tesla overvalued?  Is Tesla a good car?  Yes, but while it works in urban areas, a Tesla can’t drive east to west across Texas.  There’d have to be a long charging stop along the way, see?  In an ICE or Hybrid, it’s almost a non-stop trip with one or two 5-minute fill-ups and kidney unwinders.

I’m pointing out (and this is very anti-woke, pro-science of me) that America’s fascination (*if not predilection) is the quest for Silver Bullets, sure things, free money for all, and no due diligence required. Dream the f**k on.

Work still matters.

Truth About “Investing”

There is risk Elon Musk, very likely excited as a proud pappa of his first major auto company may have very likely overstated financial commitments when he said “funding secured” on one day only to see it evaporate, shortly thereafter.

Shit happens in business.  It’s the way it works.

People who “piled on” buying Tesla stock were l0oking for free money.  Sorry, sport.  Game doesn’t work that way.  As we remind everyone through various website disclaimers, we do not offer advice – only a unique perspective and some odd approaches to research.  What our readers actually DO with our advice is 100% up to them.

Musk is in a somewhat similar situation, except that he’s a more successful showman that me.  As such, he touts what he sincerely believes his product benefits are and – at any moment – where the company is going.  But, investing in his company should not be seen as a guarantee of profit.  Ever look at their numbers critically?

It’s taken me more than 50-years of market speculation to be able to see things clearly. You don’t just wake up one more a winner.  Takes a ton of work.

My latest trade, 500 shares of a Bear side ETF was entered at 12:07 PM EST Monday.  The position was ahead a few dollars at the close Monday.  It will likely be up a few more bucks at the open today – maybe even enough to pay for a good dinner out.

BUT THERE’S NO GUARANTEES.  I can still lose my ass.  My exit is likely to be suboptimal.  Investing, understand, is largely mathematics with far less importance of transient “NEWS” than people think.

The same Greed is rolling over in Crypto Land, though.  People are all hot for the “free money.”  Scanning stories like this – First Ethereum Mainnet Shadow Fork Goes Live Before Shanghai (beincrypto.com) – are all over the place.  But is it a good investment?

Depends where you look and if you can take in an alternative view and make good judgments:  Gemini Continues Layoff Train (cryptodaily.co.uk).  At the same time, though, BTC was still trading a shade under $23,000 at clicktime. Go figure.

Our Crypto view has been remarkably steady: It’s a GAMBLE. Swindle, sure and Ponzi scheme, too. There’s zero book value. Make up a 27-digit number, write it to a .txt file.  Think anyone will give you $23-large for it?

Investors (like Warren Buffett and his partner Charlie Munger) know better.  As the Motley Fool reported last year: “On more than one occasion, he’s made his voice heard on how he believes the cryptocurrency is worthless and holds no intrinsic value. But his 2.3% stake in Nubank gives him indirect exposure to the asset.”  Book value means something to Buffett, see?

A Business History Lesson

It’s unlikely you can name a single winning miner from California’s 1848 Gold Rush.  We do know one company that made a fortune in the Gold Rush, though:  Levi Strauss.  They made the denim clothing the miners needed starting in 1853. As we learned in grad school, Strauss was “mining the miners” – and it rhymes with Buffett and Munger’s NuBank position.  Following?

Look, I don’t mean to bore you with how real economics works, but there is speculation (gambling) which is what I enjoy.  Then there is “pile on with the herd” with greed in your heart. Which, as I figure it, has driven Tesla, Bitcoin, and many other “hot” “speculative opportunities.” But they’re not “investments.” As such, if you want to believe a pot smoking CEO, you get what you get.

That’s what’s on trial in America now:  Money for nothing and your chicks for free.

Woke, entitled, free-luncher’s abound and it won’t end gently. Musk is in dire straits.  I won’t predict Musk will lose.  But there’s a mob (woke whiners) with greed in their eyes, looking for an oak tree and holding ropes.

The Woke Mob has turned on Musk.  The mob is piling on to an anti-Musk agenda at the periphery – it’s what mobs do.

But it’s also not an isolated event.  Digital lynch mobs are forming all over the world: European official warns Musk era of ‘Wild West’ for free speech is over: ‘There will be sanctions’ | CLG News (legitgov.org). Sanctions attacking Free Speech?  Will the dweebs of Davos Weffers ban questioning bugs to banish beef?

Call the Federal Trade Commision:  I want my $5-million “Truth in Advertising reparations settlement.”  Land of the FREE my butt.  Defend and protect, ditto.  This was sold at virtually all of the edumacating centers. Funded by the government and doesn’t that make them subject to Product Liability suits?

Further to April

Future is bifurcating.  Mentioned in the Monday column that some remote viewer types are looking out to April (first week to 2nd half) when something Big will happen, by their processes.

Several readers point to the story out that the Earth’s Core has stopped rotating.  In fact, it may be starting to turn the other wayEarth’s inner core may have started spinning other way: Study (phys.org)

This would fit with some of the vision described in the Monday piece.  But more to the point, does this perhaps drive OTHER cycles?

I didn’t put a link up to Joe Brandt’s dream about California sliding into the Pacific, but here’s a starting point: In 1937 Joe Brandt saw an Earthquake sink Los Angeles, much of California and Japan. An event anywhere in the March-June window would “fit” with this vision.

Keep an eye on G.A. Stewart’s site for any updates to the Rare Birds phrase.  Because on sites like Astronomy Calendar of Celestial Events 2023 – (seasky.org) we find on April 22-23 the Lyrids meteor shower is due.  20, or more, meteors per hour.  Statistics are that eventually a large one will be in the mix. How big?  No telling.  Smallish, we hope.

Watching the future resolve one path, or another? That’s our fascination:  How a date or time-range is voted by group expectations of humanity acting as the collective Quantum Observer will resolve among these choices is a Great Work worthy of study.

Ripping Down the Wires

Another page for the California gun law report card: California shootings: At least 19 people dead after three mass gun attacks in just two days (inews.co.uk).  It’s why we call the state Gruesome.

Demonicrats playbook?  FBI counterintelligence official Charles McGonigal charged with secret work for Russian oligarch Olig Deripaska | Fortune

Which, in turn, trash cans any faith in the FBI to act in an even-handed manner.  Legal, political strategy in letting FBI search Joe Biden’s home (floridapolitics.com). Is Joestapo a word, yet?

Fahrenheit 451 Department: Turkish prez  Erdogan Warns Sweden on NATO After Koran Burning (thedefensepost.com).  Which ripples into Finland’s top diplomat suggests that the country may have to join NATO without Sweden | Fox News.

The Mainstream hasn’t told you, but flash goggles at the ready and watch those fallout shelter ads in New York; World War III is here.  War preparations in Moscow: Russia will declare a “New Patriotic War” against NATO – “The victory will be ours, as in 1812 and 1945” – WarNews247

All the more reason we’re working on what kind of earth sheltered home the late Mike Oehler might have built for the occasion were he still around. Great guy, visionary books.

On which cheerful note, we will be back in a flash, or on Thursday.  A decision regrettably above our pay grade.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

After a Manic Bounce? Monday

Stock markets will be interesting this week on a number of levels.

On one, we may get some insight into how “News and Wars” drive markets.  As Germany goes for MONEY over PEACE as Minister: Germany won’t block Poland giving Ukraine tanks reports the Associated Press.

The Russians, of course, seeing this coming, have been bracing at home: Preparations for conflict with NATO: Anti-aircraft systems in every corner of Moscow-Kremlin fortified, V.Putin’s residence, government buildings, reports the Greek site War 24/7.

War is – like a deadly cancer – metastasizing in lower Europe.  As Ukraine up-armors, the Turks are trying to get some Cold War era British missile frigates to bulk up its naval forces in the short-term.  All while the U.S. is selling arms to both sides of the (energy-based) war pending between Greece and Turkey.  F-35s for Greece and F-16s for Turkey.

The war business is, pardon this: booming.

Walls Work

With demonicrats losing a bit of sway in the District of Corruption, we see evidence continuing to build about the effectiveness of WALLS to define and secure a Nation.

Previous examples we’ve pointed to include the Great Wall of China (one reason China has a 2,500-year history), the also famous Berlin Wall which until 1989 divided Germany since WW II.  And sensible Israeli’s have walled off Palestine; whose behavior has been so bad that neither Egypt nor Israel want the land and people.

All historical context for the story over here: Greece Expanding Border Wall, Calls for EU Help on Migration.  Which is a tale totally full of wall irony.  Especially poignant upon a review of the story on Filmmaker this morning that ““We Had To Shoot the African Scenes in Greece” | Anthony Chen, Drift.”

Irony never gets rusty.

Musical Chairs, Biden Style

Slow Joe Biden’s Chief of Staff is out. Jeff Zients to be named Biden’s next chief of staff, replacing Ron Klain.  I’m reminded of a song, now.. Thomas Dolby,  wasn’t it? She Blinded Me With Science.  We expect to be “Blinded by Zients” now…

Biden apologists are making the best of it Biden’s Cabinet is sticking around, bucking the turnover trend of his predecessors. We are told more changes at the Cabinet are coming as Joe’s Ship of Fools sets sail for the polls in 2024.

If there’s a world left.

I Didn’t Mention?

OK, there’s just one problem not covered so far.

As you might expect (since Ure’s been a reporter for north of half a century) I know a few people who know a few things.

As SOME of the people I (might) know have been real, by-God serious (as in working for Uncle) people of the Men Who Stare at Goats” variety yuou hear things.

What I’m hearing now is sometime between, oh, first week of April to about the 20th of April – somewhere in there – we are in for some massive “entertainment.”

Not sure what this means but picture a world that is gold on the inside and then expands out to white on the surface such that there is “no safe place.”

The term “divine intervention” is used.  Some see different colors (white to purple).  Thing is, while (sorry) we can’t be more specific other than to offer the proximate date range, something big…as in REALLY big…is 74-days ahead popping in remote seeing circles.

To paraphrase one (since we talked of other things) “We don’t need to worry about money, now.  It simply doesn’t matter….”

We have a number of very sensitive readers  so watch the Comments section for feedback and maybe Andy can inquire of The DUDE on our behalf.  HE is seen driving this.  (DUDE, not Andy, just so we’re clear…)

For Now, Money Matters

Eventually, we have to get to the subject of our headline:  For now, Money Matters, although perhaps to a lessening degree, depending on what the looking glass crowd sees and what you Believe in, if you follow.

Dow futures were down 26 earlier while the S&P was down 7.  Giving us a view ahead of:

So, the next pause should be down in the area of the white “3” in the lower right.  IF our intuition about such things works out.

But the commercial hype is in ahead of the open, so no telling – yet.

For Whom the Axe Swings

There was a hint of times ahead as the National Association of Business Economics issues its outlook Sunday:  January 2023 Business Conditions Survey Summary reporting that the “NABE Survey Panel Suggests Probability of 2023 Recession Remains Elevated; Continued Wage Growth and Weaker Sales to Put Pressure on Profit Margins.”

Right in line comes the latest HR grenade in tech as Spotify Seen Cutting Staff as Soon as This Week as Tech Layoffs Mount – Bloomberg.

Seeing a trend?

Tomorrow morning, we get Purchasing Managers and the Richmond Fed’s lookahead after the open.  Wednesday (spine-tingling stuff here) Business Uncertainty mid-morning (and Korea’s GDP if you care in the afternoon).

Thursday is Data Dump Day this week:  Durable Goods, GDP, new UI Filings, International Trade and perhaps the cherry on top will be retail inventories and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.  Friday has Personal Income and Expenses scheduled, but these are always framed as “too little of the first and too much of the second…”

Silly Parties

With the demonicrats tearing down the Constitution and with repugnantcans putting up (at best) a half-assed defense, we look at the future of American Politics as needing a new Marketing Schtick.

We think it’s made a guest appearance as Fox reported VP Harris required people to sign ‘attestation of vaccination’ paper to attend her Florida speech: reports.

Clear?  Democrats are moving in the direction of being the Broke, Borderless, and Vaccinated Party.  Obviously, no ticky, no laundry at Kam’s hoe-down (a dandy, double-entendre, don’tcha think?).  This could go one of two ways for the repugnant’s: They could become the Real Border, Data, and Science Party, OR they could keep up the infighting and continue back-stabbing one-another to death.

The Repugnant’s incompetence continues to be a national embarrassment as Santos’s financial woes pile up, threatening his political career   | The Hill.  Which we view as another rerun of political expediency triumphing over morality, honesty and sanity.  You go, Pugs.

Digital Scrap Heap

10-dead from a Chinese New Year’s Party in Monterey Park this weekend.  Sad, but we’re not clear on a few things.  BERNAMA – Flags in US shall be flown at half-mast following Monterey Park shooting – Biden.  Have we just failed to notice national flag lowering’s for previous mass shooting victims?  Meantime, California lefties are selling the idea it “could have been worse except for our gun laws...”  Yeah, sure, you betcha.  “Don’t wake the woke to the fact Criminals and Crazies don’t follow Laws,” writes the man whose office is 160-feet from his shooting table on his 100-meter range and a Gunfighter’s Inc. Kenai holster…

Lights Out!  No, not an odd reference to my friend Delilah Rene from back in my broadcasting days.  Nope.  Talking about Pakistan suffers big power outage after second grid failure in three months | Reuters.  Things keep edging toward the shitter, over there:  There’s the possibility of a very hot religious war.  See last week’s post on Reddit: First pakistan map proposed by muslim league’s Rahmat Ali to divide India for Muslims : MapPorn.

Cryptomeria is still making the rounds.  As seen in Binance SWIFT partner to ban USD transfers below USD 100k – ThePaypers and as XRP price gathers steam for 45% upswing as Brad Garlinhouse prepares for landslide victory against the SEC (fxstreet.com).  Us?  Still no crypto (and no vax, either).  Feeling more Amish every day – not a bad thing, that.  With BTC knocking on $23,000 we wonder again why the CROOKED/WOKE movement hasn’t turned on this energy squandering, climate wrecking Ponzi scheme.  But again, don’t wake the woke.

ATR: ShopTalk Follow-Up

My friend, Dr. J, is sending me the plans for the 50 Cal. Ammo Can (tall) bug-out VHF ham station based on the Radioddity DB25 which will be cool.

I’d passed along the contributed Ammo Can kit from William of the Radio Ranch.  Dr. J’s very key point:  It’s not in an EMP proof can…

While we were talking, it occurred to me that an equivalent could be made for a low power HF radio, too.  So I’m working on that in background.  I’ve already got an HF Signals uBitX 6.0 and looks like it could be shoehorned in. (Measurements pending)

The idea would be to package the radio, mini tuner, a 4:1 QRP balun, and an 80-10 OCFD out of thin but strong wire.  Mini coax for feeding it (30 feet do?), mic, power cable, and Morse code key would round it out.

This leaves only the power problem in either case (the VHF or the HF radio can):  How much battery could go in a third can?  You’d want as much lithium ion as possible, charge controller and power leads.  Three ammo cans and a solar panel, or two, and seems like that would be pretty good coms.

For some great presentations on NVIS HF, search Youtube.

Toss in one of those cheap $100-class laptops that pop up on Best Buy deals now and then, ported over in advance to Linux, and loaded with FLDigi which then gives you voice, Morse, and all the main digital modes.  FLDigi is supported on Linux, Mac, BSD, and Windows.

(Tired of Ham Radio talk yet?)

Being into Retro Radio Restorations, I’m excited as hell about the scheduled delivery this week of an old BK Dyna Jet 606 tube checker I snagged last week on eBay.  Have an old Heathkit TC-2 and a Precision Apparatus Company (PACO) unit but the BK is simple to calibrate and handles a few transmitter finals, like 6146’s, for example.

OK, on that note off to work on what is quickly turning into an ebook on Future Forecasting with a HUGE amount of material contributed by G.A. Stewart of the Age of Desolation website. On Peoplenomics.com Wednesday.

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net