News

I know about accident chains having flown a hundred thousand miles, plus or minus a pee stop, in our own plane. Part of the F.A.A. WINGS program includes the study and understanding of “accident chains” and how to break them.  Prevents falling “out of the sky.” What’s not widely appreciated though is the accident chain’s evil … Read More

It may not seem like a useful column headline, but there’re a ton of Post-Its all over the digital desktop. Important stuff – the kind that fits into modeling the future in a manner facilitating the making of money. So in addition to the ChartPack and the normal assortment of headlines, some of the more … Read More

Jobs:  The Hype, the Data and here’s the sausage. I had to put on my “eye muffs” this morning to filter out the BS about how “Economy expected to add one million jobs in April.” Well, bubba, here’s what really happened: “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little … Read More

Although the markets are continuing to present “normalcy bias” numbers, the emerging – and long-expected – reality around here is that Nassim Taleb’s book “Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (Incerto)” was less than half-right. It’s a position I took a good number of years ago.  Mentioned on the Peoplenomics side.  But, mostly I shut-up when … Read More

We spend an exceptional amount of time focusing on the Future around here. With good reason.  Because the art of making money (or, at least losing as little as possible) is predicated on getting “some notion or aspect of Future” right.  And then making meaningful bets on it. Are there some “unconventional” things looming in … Read More

We have gone from a low-interest Monday to a “Things get interesting Tuesday” with events over the past 24.  Let’s begin the morning roll with: Trade Wreck People – mainly being sheep – are “conditioned” to thinking charts that go UP are telling us good news.  But when comes to the Trade deficit, no, they … Read More

Monday’s news flow sucks.  But that doesn’t mean we just sit around with our morning “cuppa” and idly pass the time. Instead, I pass the time arguing with myself over how much of my economic viewpoint I should keep for Peoplenomics readers and how much could be safely “teased” in public. Here’s the Answer A single … Read More

Yessir: ShopTalk Sunday.  As we await the opening of the “crooked casino”  now part-owned by the Federal Reserve (as presumably you as a taxbleeder), we go to our Person Caves to Create. “Directions Are Wrong” Added a few more items to the stores this week. Which meant assembling another 48 X 14 x 80 inch … Read More

While we don’t expect global war this weekend, there’s plenty of reason to be concerned with the balance of the year.  We ponder the global rise of “strongman socialism” and where we might be by year’s end. A deep look at our Aggregate Index charts, as well.  Since charts often do hold predictive content – … Read More

Early market futures were pointing to a down opening.  But is that really so bad? Employment Cost Index Just out: Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2021, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs … Read More

The Second Depression started, near as we can figure, in March of 2020.  That’s when the markets tanked and the Fed became the biggest inflator of paper assets – ever. In fact, the tip-off that the U.S. Economy is still on a ventilator may be clearly seen by anyone with half a brain.  Though even … Read More

Even with inflation coming, if you have even grocery money, you can hedge. We tackle some absurdities are we review some of the obvious untruths and lies about Money.  These are programmed into us from a very young age. The good news is that with a minimum of effort, you can do your own “de-programming” … Read More

Just out from Case-Shiller/S&P/CoreLogic: “YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 12.0% annual gain in February, up from 11.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 11.7%, up from 10.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted … Read More