The Ugly Patterns First
Highest Level Pattern first:
I began work on the Aggregate Index in 2001 when it became apparent (in the wake of the 9/11 event) that terrorism “seemed to appear” just in time to swing the public’s attention away from $5 to $8-trillion in losses in the Internet Bubble from March 2000 to market lows in 2003.
Another “public pivot” was seen when the runaway market 2006-2008 – which blew-up on excesses in the “no-doc” loans and the enabling sales of collateralized mortgage obligations provided a government excuse for a massive bailout of a handful of “Too Big To Fail – TBTF” companies.
Although less specific in its “blame focus,” the events in this period, the “war card” was being played in background. Saddam Hussein was executed in 2006 and in 2008 the U.S. Iraqi forces worked out plans. Away from deep journos was the intervention in Somalia and Operation Ocean Shield.
The aftermath of the Housing Bubble collapse, however, was a widely dispersed event. My friend Howard Hill’s book “Finance Monsters: How Massive Unregulated Betting by a Small Group of Financiers Propelled the Mortgage Market Collapse Into a Global Financial Crisis” is the single-best textbook you’ll find on events of the period.
Fast-forward to this morning: The long-term bond rate has just cratered to 1.25% on the 10-year Treasury note. (The U.S. 30-year is a bond, the 10-year is the note, and the bills are very short-term instruments. If someone writes “10-year Treasury bill, they are unlikely to be a reliable economics reporter. Just saying…words matter!)
What we (think we may know) is that Economics (the controllers and ultra-rich) never want to be blamed-directly for financial collapse. A key lesson of the French Revolution was “Always have a Scapegoat handy.”
Spot the Goat!
Problem is? We are not-yet seeing a big enough “goat.”
- Although we have Haiti in upheaval: President Moïse assassinated at home (apnews.com), he was never a lynchpin of the World Order, at least in the sense Archduke Ferdinand was in the lead-in to WW I.
- We have concerns that a new variant of the CV-19 outbreak could “appear” (I didn’t say planted, did I?). While stories like Coronavirus: New ‘Lambda’ variant causes concern for WHO – (jpost.com) might lead to additional lockdowns…
- …the bitter Truth is people these days are lazy. How lazy? Well, enough such that Job openings stayed at record high of 9.2 million in May reports TheHill.
In the face of this, the Fed is now finding itself stuck in Ure’s Discontinuity which I have written about for years. Essentially, in a zero inflation economy, bonds go to zero while stocks go to infinity. Oscillations about a theoretical resonance increase until we have mornings like the one ahead, which is likely not to be the last.
As we scan the headlines, the “kicker-over” event isn’t here yet. Though we do pray every night for Joe Biden’s health. No telling what a “President Harris” would do to the world economy in general and the U.S. specifically.
Except perhaps set the stage (be an excuse for insurrectionists of all stripe) to stage a second Civil War. Absent slavery as an issue, a Marxist kind of “political correctness BS” revolution against “The Rich” might be able to congeal the worst of the French Revolution and the U.S. Civil War.
Which – oh, by the way – WOULD be a large-enough context-shifter to get the Ultra Rich Behind Wall Street off-stage without a visit to lampstands or guillotines. Spool-up the Gulfstream’s.
Second Level Pattern:
This is the one Peoplenomics chronicles: The self-similarity between major catastrophic events over long time scales.
The answer is really a little different, since “Zeroes are Free!” as everyone from Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and other Marxist Modern Monetary Theory promoters embrace.
Which now includes the U.S. Fed which has gone as close to hyperinflation as they dare by allowing for massive government over-spending with nothing but vague promises and raiding of the public’s “Trust Funds” for things like highways and Social Security.
According to the U.S. Treasury Public Debt to the Penny website:
We’d have to bet (given Spendthrift Joe) on at least $31-trillion of National Debt by year’s end. Dem leaning media report the right column. Accountants and scientists read the total on the right.
Where the Pump Dumps
Imagine that the 1929 Federal Reserve had flooded the market in November of 1929 with uncounted billions. The result, in my work, looks like this. Where the top trace is this week’s actual (through the pre-open yesterday) and the bottom trace is the 1929 actual.
The lines in between show various “made up money” rates of inflation.
Regardless (and we might quibble a few points either way, the 2021 Actual (market price) less (Fed) inflation, overlaying the lower track should scare the hell out of you.
Watch Commodities for Clues!
We can already see at Financial Futures (finviz.com) that the interventions in the U.S. has begun. Many commodities have taken a break – like lumber is down a bit, and so forth. Curiously, however, Gold and Silver were running opposite.
Global markets have been a train wreck: the Hang Seng was down 2.89% while most of Europe is down anywhere from 1.8% to 2.3% (Germany, France at clicktime).
Major collapses of Financial Markets are geared affairs. One tumbler in the lock, then a pause, until the next tumbler falls.
That’s why the BIG event Blame-Shift is likely not here – YET.
Something like a massive attack on the Internet. I mean something that takes down everything: Banking, telephones, money transfers. Neatly gets the Controllers out of Bank Run risk, though: With no comms, there’s no money in banks.
Oh yeah – no way to check out at the store, either. Like the Commercial says “What’s in YOUR wallet?” There’s always a media hint when you look, right?
Meantime, in a HUGE victory for analytics, I did tell you to expect something because of the previously identified data bubble for July 7 and 8, right?
As I explained to Peoplenomics subscribers in Wednesday morning’s report:
“I would blow out of a modest short position held into today’s (WED>) action except for the divergence seen in the Global views.
Take this one, for example: See how the US is “floating” over the rest of the world?
My thinking was that when divergences between the U.S. and RoW occur, strong market action may follow.
Daily Data Dose
Unemployment claims were up a bit on a REAL (not seasonally adjusted/agendized) basis:
Keep an Eye On
Signs of “soft martial law” as we read: White House defends door-to-door vaccination push amid backlash.
And we cannot emphasize enough the threat to National Security posed by Social Media. Why, here comes the Digital Lynching Mob now! Facebook Wants to Know If Your Friends Are Extremists | Tech.co. Pre-war Germany experienced Kristallnacht. Now we have the modern replay as KristallClick.
My reference to Digital Kristallnacht is far from accidental. You see, persecution of Jews in today’s world is a good “thermometer” for the Controllers and Dividers to watch as they gauge how hard to push anti-White agendas. White-shaming and the historical revisionism of CRT, Speaking of which, did you notice Ms 2024? Nikki Haley slams critical race theory, says America should not be ‘divided by different shades of color’?
Let’s look at the thermometer, though. shall we? Black Jewish inclusion officer is forced to resign over statement condemning anti-Semitism | Daily Mail Online. And coddling those lovable rocket-launching tunnel-diggers comes into play as Book Group Apologizes to Palestinians for Condemning Anti-Semitism | Opinion (msn.com).
And who, other than Marxist opportunists, could fail to cash in on a different victim group? College kids: Thomas Elias: Rash of anti-semitism now alleged to infect Stanford | Columnists | lompocrecord.com.
Yep – just leave it to the Kamunist and Slow Joe to keep the border open while America slumbers on. Too lazy to work, corralled if you digitally bitch on social media, the degree of Digital Depravity continues to be ignored in the co-opted Mainstream.
Is the tide about to turn? Here’s a real reporter doing real reporting: AP reporter stuns Biden State Department spokesperson during press briefing | Fox News. Another turn sign? Voters fail Harris on border, 62% see ‘a crisis’ | Washington Examiner.
The Rise and Fall of QAnon: QAnon Supporters Think JFK Jr Is Alive. (Don’t know whether to file this under Dutchy or Blunt…hmmm….
But this is equally RICH: GOP engaged in ‘concerted attempt to destabilize the democratic process’, says Hillary Clinton. Dutchy it is, then…
Like a baseball game…with concrete? I couldn’t help noticing (Elaine had the TV on in the house Wednesday) and there was (ISYN) play by play of body recovery efforts in Florida. Am I the only one who’s getting tired of such macabre editor choices? Yeah, quiet news flow, but really? (10 More Bodies Have Been Discovered At The Site Of The Florida Condo Collapse).
Hey! How About an Alien Invasion?
Hasn’t this been hinted at for half a century as the “ultimate” attention-shifter? Government report? Check! TV series pumping fear? Check! How about fresh sightings? UFO or swarm of bugs? Object recorded over South Carolina ignites tabloid coverage. Check!
Sure you don’t just want a “hard grid down” or Internet Collapse? See my 2012 book Broken Web.
Whew. Time to put on the Scrooge McDuck Suit for the open and blow out before the printing presses spool up.
Watching streamers closely for the rumored opening of an Adult Depends stand outside Wall Street….
Write when you get rich,