Fed Meets, Retail, Ex-Im, and Moon Phases

Whew!  That’s-a some laundry list. But no worries:  Part of my new “less time writing” regimen (leaving more time for doing, at least in theory) demands we skip over the longish discussions and get right to the heart of the matter. Fed Meeting As often happens, credit for some keen insights goes to my consigliere for remarks … Read More

Misdirection Friday (Stocks, Biden, Economy)

No, last night’s Pandemic speech by Joe Biden is not a State of the Union speech.  As this little snip from the U.S. House website here says: “The formal basis for the State of the Union Address is from the U.S. Constitution: The President “shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the … Read More

Powell’s Foot, Revisionist Data

Ah, wonderful wash-out on Thursday, no? I can almost imagine the conversation now (remember, this is fiction, right?): Some WH Idiot:  “What we need is to have the masks stay on longer, Dr. Powell.  So if you could think of something that would lows down the demasking so the whole CV-19 thing doesn’t look so much … Read More

Markets on the High Board: Replay 1929 – or 1998?

Those of us judging Long Wave Economics are ready with the flip-number boards as the market heads toward what we’d reckon – at first blush – to be at least a retest of the Thursday lows. After that, it’s anyone’s guess, although we sure like the look of a modest rally for at least a … Read More

Markets Set to Falter? Modern Bag-Holders

As our Peoplenomics readers have known for a good while, there has been a small – but larger-than-zero – chance the stock market would end its meteoric rise (on Made-UP-Money) around the President’s weekend. So far, that has evidenced itself by a slow-motion, rolling-top in our Aggregate Index work. While this doesn’t mean “The End” is … Read More

ShopTalk: A UFO “Conspiracy” Becomes Real…

Woo-Woo or Ultra-Science?  That’s the Question. It has been popular in American politics of late to diss all manner of disagreeable and still “information-controlled” alleged facts as “Conspiracies.” To this, the Denying Party then proclaims that ALL Conspiracies are Wrong. This morning, we show otherwise. UFO MATERIAL:  Recovered and Tested Although nothing new to our Peoplenomics readers, … Read More

Market Divergences – Expectations Dim

Right out of the chute today,  a nod to the National Federation of Independent Business.  Which issued a not-so-happy outlook today:  “The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions falls 55 points in 4 months.” Additional Details: “WASHINGTON, D.C. (Feb. 9, 2021) – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined in January to 95.0, down 0.9 from … Read More

Market Pics Bucs, Ure Call Chiefs, Higher than ’29 Now

There is only one way the market can collapse next week:  That is if the K.C. Chiefs score a huge upset on Super Bowl Sunday. The hell of it is?  We think that’s a pretty good possibility.  But follow along the ‘business logic’ of it all and we shall see come Sunday night… Higher than … Read More

Train Wreck Thursday

Jobs, Markets, or scammy Medicare insurance providers?  Where do you want to start? Jobs it Is Just out is the latest job cuts report from Challenger. Before we roll with it, though, some simple math.  One can take the new jobs created report from ADP and then subtract the following number (this morning’s Challenger report) … Read More

Quiet on the Data Front: Snow, Bash, Trash, and Rollbacks

Wow.  Didn’t think I could ultra compress Life into such an all-encompassing headline, but as the old saying goes:  If you want something done, give it to a busy man.  At least for a few weeks, that’d be me… Spring garden chores beckon, along with replacing a roof panel that blew off the greenhouse in … Read More

Data Drives Week, Another Tesla?

We keep trying to “keep it short” but there are so many “moving pieces” in the world today that it could be difficult. Picking up where we left off with Peoplenomics Saturday, we face the specter of what we’ve penciled in as “World War Everywhere.” The big contexts are: How the U.S. will cope with Covid.  … Read More

Optimism, The Greater 1929 Rhyme, Fools Leading Idiots

Seldom have times been easier for an honest writer.  There are so many “hot topics” around that it boggles the mind.  So, still in recovery mode from our snow event, we will keep it short in order to (more importantly) “keep it warm.” Small Business Optimism Collapses National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) publishes an … Read More

“Hidden Depression” in Amerizuela

### print: money.doc | more I’ve been up half the night (since 2AM) trying to figure out why the market is soaring to such crazy heights.  I mean think about it: The CV-19 rollout is not going as fast as expected. There was a 123,000 job drop in the ADP report for Dec. 77-thousand jobs cuts … Read More