Markets Set to Falter? Modern Bag-Holders

As our Peoplenomics readers have known for a good while, there has been a small – but larger-than-zero – chance the stock market would end its meteoric rise (on Made-UP-Money) around the President’s weekend.

So far, that has evidenced itself by a slow-motion, rolling-top in our Aggregate Index work.

While this doesn’t mean “The End” is here – since market’s don’t crash from highs – it does have us looking at the nominal 37-trading/55-calendar day figures from past tops (like 1929, for instance) and have us wondering what the Bernanke/Yellen “dynamic duo” of Modern Monetary Theory will pull out of the hat next?

Breathe Deeply

There are several things driving the [final] topping process.  Some of the factors we are serving today include:

  • Monthly Housing data from Case/Shiller (S&P, et al) will be dished up tomorrow morning.  While housing has been hot, any relaxation from slope of trend now could be problematic.
  • The Covid-19 death toll is passing the half-million victims rate.  498,901 dead in the U.S. as of this morning.  Something we were forecasting last October when we projected 400,000 deaths by February.  And there we go….By the way, if you were glasses, you’re 3-times less likely to get Covid.  (Why, toss in young and Type-O and this isn’t such a big deal.  Except Fauci d’ Ouchi says masks for another year, anyway.  See the NY Times column “The Jobs the Pandemic May Devastate,” too.  Very much on point.
  • The real damage to the economy is what really hasn’t been discounted by the Markets, yet.  Sure, Bitcoin is still holding over $55,000 at press time.  And, as Linda in our Houston Bureau notes, Elon is making hay of Tesla’s now Billion in Crypto profits.  Still, as we learned in costly schooling in commodities trading, you can have paper profits all day long.  What matters is “what you send home” when the smoke clears.  Plenty of smoke in made-up-money, for sure.
  • Even deeper, though:  There are still about 10-million fewer people working now compared with a year ago.  And while it sounds good for J. Powell to call for a war-like footing on job creation (he speaks Wednesday, so plan on a “courtesy rally”?), the fact is America is overload with useless shit.  Who would have ever believed that we would have so much excess consumption that we would have to rent boxes (e.g. storage units) to store it all in?

The Market today, therefore, has a number of reasons to head south for a bit.  There’s getting to be a “lack of Greater Fools with money or assets” to rip-off.  And once the lack of “fleecee’s” becomes evident, those holding “illusions of assets” will become the Modern Bag Holders.

Mixed Bag in CFNAI

Chicago Fed’s Monthly National Activity Index (which is an index of indices – 85 of them, in fact) had a little something for everyone today:

On the Upside:  “Led by improvements in personal consumption-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.66 in January from +0.41 in December. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in January, but three categories decreased from December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.47 in January from +0.60 in December.

But, on the Downside:  “The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved down to +0.34 in January from +0.49 in December. Fifty-three of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in January, while 32 made negative contributions. Forty-nine indicators improved from December to January, while 36 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 13 made negative contributions.

We love the term “negative contributions.”   We’re hitting the sauce early today, trying to figure out how if “49-indicators improved,”  “13 made negative contributions…”  Say WTF?  (Yes, we want no bananas?)

Can you imagine a stick-up artist jumping out of an alley, waving a Glock, and saying “Make a negative contribution to your net worth!”  Sugar-coating for idiots.

What Would be Graceful?

Aggregate Market Theory (something we cobbled up in the wake of the financial industry lie-over about the collapse of the Tech Wreck in 2000-2003) suggests that Elliott Waves still work.  It’s just that they behave more like commodity Elliott, rather than stock Elliott.

The difference?  In commodities, the 5th wave is usually largest, while the stock Elliott fifth waves need only be larger than the 1 wave.  Still, no hard and fast rules since exceptions abound and the Fed have been arbing the markets up in very non-public ways.  In fact, if you or I were to manipulate on such scales, it might be “price-fixing.”  Government, hiding behind “It’s good for the People” gives itself a pass.  Which is all part-and-parcel of why the U.S. dollar has about 3% of its purchasing power left.  The rest being hollowed out with debt since 1913.

Anything Else Matter?

Like millions of Texans, we continue in boiled water mode and waiting to see how grocery resupplies work out.

We will be doing a resupply this week, since the really warm weather (almost 70F Sunday) has cleared roads which means back-filling will make a lot of people overtime.

The food wrinkle to all this has refocused attention on indoor farming, though.  Which in turn has morphed into “can we make farms from office buildings?” and other such questions.

For some though, the pain of the storm will be permanent.  As the CBS report “Family of boy who died during Texas winter storm sues ERCOT and Entergy for $100 million” emphasizes.  Long-term lack of power resulting in hypothermia seems to be where this is headed.

Life Marches On

Irrational markets?  Irrational weather?  Gee, what else drops into that bit-bucket?  We go sampling:

Intel operatives are still employed:  “Swede Charged With Spying for Russia.”

Tech talk ab out future in Fortunes article wondering if we’ll see a “A national strategy for 5G?”  I mean besides throwing money at things…  (Say, when will we get StarLink out here?  High bandwidth LEO microcubes are welcome any time around here…pleeze?)

Pumping the racial divide?  “‘Absolutely defeated’: Black nurses struggle with mental health support while battling Covid-19” reports CNN.  We’re wondering if White nurses are exempt from such issues?

And a word from Ned Ludd here.  The story Porsche CEO warns ‘very serious’ global chip shortage could affect operations for months has me harkening back to a day when Bosche, wasn’t it?  Owned the world of mechanical fuel injection.  No chips?  No problem!  A bit more work – and my 911-E was equipped with six Zenith TIN 40’s.  But see how old tech employed specialists?  There’s worthwhile job creation, for you.  Bring down the price of Porsche repairs and I might buy another one some day.

Around the Ranch:  Spousal Rehab Diet

While Elaine is having a tough time getting back up and around, in part because of a 50% weight-bearing limit due to that hairline crack top of her femur, we have discovered a new benefit from all this medical stuff:

Ure has now lost 11-pounds from date of surgery to this morning’s bounce on the “scales of justice.”

The reason, near as I can figure it, is three-fold, or more:

  • I am on my feet almost constantly these days.  Writing a column, or grabbing a nap, is about it for butt time.  Where we used to split up the chores around here, it’s all fallen on me.  Not complaining, though:  I’m back into rolling bath towels, running the dishwasher, and even hauled out the vacuum cleaner a few times…  So, part of the weight loss is “Increased Activity.”
  • Then there’s the food angle.  Cooking for two, I have become more conscious of leftovers.  I’m trying to limit those.  And so the second aspect of the Spousal Recovery Diet (SRD) is “Portion Control.”
  • Related, though different, is “TBTE” – which of course means Too Busy To Eat.  Some of the foods I like (freshly made corned beef hash, for example) doesn’t fit with Elaine’s taste.  Her idea of a good breakfast is egg, bacon, cheese on a croissant with fruit and juice.  I do an extra slice or two of bacon (for me) but it might end up in a can of clam chowder…while cleaning the kitchen, running laundry and whatever

Honestly, no complaints at all.  This is one of the best dieting regimens possible.  If you’re too busy to eat, the fact of losing weight doesn’t have time to prey on the mind.  Rather, you simply don’t think about food.  It all pales compared to the importance of the Agenda. Which includes medication times, exercise times, being on hand while walking, and so forth.

Weather has turned from Ice Age to Eden this weekend.  Although it’s cool this morning (37F) the outlook for today is mid 50’s and every bit of the snow is gone, save a few tiny patches in the shade.

With roads open, our mail (and garbage) service will resume.  Should be instructive on what that brings.

Sleeves rolled-up, coffee onboarded, it’s time to rock the kitchen…and get a fresh ice bag for Elaine…  Coffee is a Texas-two-fer now:  Boiling the water and juicing it up, a bit…

After maybe a quick day trade:  Short last week, and with the Dow futures down 200 and the S&P down 34, the question comes back to “Take the money and leave?  Or play spin the bottle and think in terms of Turnaround Tuesday?”

We shall see…

Write when you get rich,

32 thoughts on “Markets Set to Falter? Modern Bag-Holders”

  1. nah you will all just burn your USD . i have never seen a more sick ,dangerous , setup ever . good luck with all the storytelling .

    • For years I’ve seen this couple on TV proselytizing religion — now I see them two pandering to CBD.

      Too bad that everything seems to be a business proposition, including politics. Not against CBD.

  2. and the new warren buffet .. elon edison . 1600 years to pay for one share on his US GOVERNMENT startup company . now thats a real smart dude . turning that into more with sheetcoin . and he says hes an alien

  3. Had to laugh a bit yesterday. Two days after the deepest, most prolonged deep freeze in my life around here we were running around town with the car’s A/C on. Hopefully it’ll be a while before we use it in the house.

  4. Stimulus week. Hell, yea!

    Texas power companies are being sued by loved ones, “put profits over the welfare of people”. Electric service is going to get expensive in Texas.

    “The family of an 11-year-old boy from Texas who froze to death after the family’s mobile home lost power during cold weather are suing the electricity companies involved to the tune of $100 million.

    Cristian Pavon Pineda, 11, was found dead in his bed next to his younger brother Tuesday as temperatures plummeted into single digits and the family were unable to keep warm.

    The lawsuit places the blame squarely at the region’s utility companies, Power grid operator ERCOT and electricity provider Entergy, holding them responsible for the tragedy. “

    • “Electric service is going to get expensive in Texas.”

      Not just texas.. but Everywhere.. just consider.. that hundred year storm.. the cascade of failure.. they live in an area where that just don’t happen.. so to save a few bucks.. they didn’t leave any space for the wires to do the normal expansion and contraction..
      Water gas.. same thing in the land of no frost.. the miles and miles of broken pipes because to save a buck they didn’t put them below frost level…
      citrus crops.. I haven’t read anything yet on how much was lost.. I had an order for a case of fruit from texas that should be coming in two months.. now.. will they be able to deliver.. big question..
      The USA having seen just what can happen.. now is probably a little focused on the infrastructure that the country has been neglecting.. my guess is that is someplace around ten trillion by now.. and china the place of manufacturing replacement parts is ten plus years behind on products..
      IN my mind this is only the beginning..
      that doesn’t even cover the one third of the households that are on the eviction list starting for march 15th… It is all going to get real interesting..

  5. We eat when it’s TIME.

    We eat at breakfastTIME, lunchTIME, and dinnerTIME,
    and NOT necessarily when we’re actually hungry.

    Be honest now: don’t you often eat just because it’s TIME, and not because you’re actually hungry? (Or because someone has asked, “Are you going to lunch?’ — Well, I wasn’t; but now I am, now that you mention it…)

    When one is very busy, and forgets to eat — and it happens to me frequently — I find I lose a bit of personal mass on the old double-beam doctor-office scale in the bathroom the next morning.

    So. Conclusion : Eat ONLY when you’re actually, really, physically hungry for a week, and report results.

    (Note: This is often socially awkward. I have no solution for this.)

    • That would solve so many problems in our society all around — but few will be listening and/or following this very simple and effective advice.

    • Living alone, I have no reason or desire to actually work to make food to eat, so I’m not tempted to eat according to the clock. When I’m around more people, I get stuck eating when not really hungry. I try to do the minimum necessary for sociability. Activities like “dating” are almost always focused around the act of eating stuff, though hopefully that progresses to something more enjoyable.

      The social environment has mostly been built around eating and drinking stuff. Other bodily functions are consigned to either the bedroom or the bathroom.

  6. “As the CBS report “Family of boy who died during Texas winter storm sues 100 million” emphasizes ….”

    The emphasizing should rather focus on them suing “YOU & MYSELF” because ERCOT and Entergy will just raise their prices, IMHO. ;-((

  7. Every time you think of food drink a glass of water then think of something other than food for five minutes and the urge for food goes away

    • After two months of diverticulitis and mostly liquid diet, I can attest that this works. Also motivating is the certain knowledge that solid food will become extremely painful when it hits the infected spots. Thankfully that is all surgically gone now. I have always been inclined to eat when I’m hungry, not a ‘social eater’ or just because it’s TIME. More so now after a colon resection. Smaller portions, when I feel ’empty’. And I love the ‘less heavy’ weight now.

  8. knock knock
    whos there?
    yield/curve control
    yield control who?
    knock knock
    whos there?
    100 yr tbond.

    Chief – U know what yield control can mean to equity markets.

    Corp Tax – going UP!

    *Capital Gains Tax – Going UP, up,up..

    -Sell em if yuse got em(gains) – while rates are still reasonable – or not.

    – I’m sure El Pretendente Zhoa Bia-deng -along with toothy mcbigtits,piglosi,shifty & co. will find some worthy Foreign Power (willing to kick back AID in form of political/pac $$) to give all that new tax revenue stream to..
    -Ukies, Israhell, Anyone willing to SLAUGHTER Palestinians,Syrians, Kurds and Yemenis – opps I see it Oxy Moron or is it just Satanists(El -ites) doing what they do best?

    Don’t look Dr. Copper – he is screaming – aint nobody listening..

    BTC – Buy the Dip ! the power will be back on shortly…

  9. Article on (and Biden’s DOE/EPA would not allow Texas electrical generation above 60% to comply with Green Energy Stds
    Think any bureaucrats will be held accountable?
    What was that circle jerk of agencies you wrote about G ?
    Maybe it’s not good to be a somewhat Red state in a Joe Bribem admin.

  10. Hmmm.. not until March 15 is my opinion….. that would coincide with my Premonitions on something bad happening.. it is also when the USA is scheduled to have mass evictions of about a third of those in homes and apartments that are on the eviction list…
    Hmm.. 1400.00 isn’t going to cut that.. all it will do is get people to spend a little bit and those like myself that had to dip into tax payments to pay taxes…

    • I expect that at least some lip service will be given to those about to be evicted. Perhaps some massive complex program designed to deprive them of some assets or choices in exchange for a continued reprieve from the sheriff.

      Meanwhile, where’s that 2K a month? I suppose that now we have the demented one allegedly running the show, it’s no longer necessary.

  11. if you ain’t sprouting, you ain’t surviving. easiest thing to grow indoors are sprouts. you don’t even need light. they will grow in a dark closet. throw the seeds in a quart mason jar, rinse with water and drain. you can even use a piece of women’s nylon held over the top with a rubber band as a strainer or punch holes in the lid smaller than the seeds you’re sprouting. do that twice a day and in less than a week the jar will be overflowing with sprouts. it really is miraculous. there is a wide variety of sprouting seeds available, including spicy, like radish sprouts.

    ‘we got married in a fever hotter than a radish sprout.’

  12. i have never ever seen a more rigged , bad , so horrible piece of sheet as this thing called the world economy . the facists really deserve some bad sheet . every day is more stupid and worse

  13. Let me tell you a story about growing stuff in converted residential buildings.
    But first let me remind you there are many server farms that draw as much electricity as an Aluminum Smelting operation.
    As you know I spent several years a few back in Southern Colorado on an engineering contract. This started one year after CO legalized pot. As for quality of life every hobo, bum, panhandler, you name it was sleeping in front of the grocery stores. The retail all closed their operations from 2200 to 0700 because they could not stand the theft. All of the farmland growing peppers, tomatoes, etc was being converted to pot.
    But about growing indoors:
    People relocating to the area could not find housing because when a house, even large expensive homes in elite areas, came on the market, a “Real Estate Investor” showed up with a literal bag of cash and outbid everyone for the home.
    It didn’t take long for the police to show up at the home, and find it with a (usually) “undocumented Immigrant living in part of the kitchen and one bathroom and the house stuffed to the gills with plants and grow lights. They would empty the house except for the five weakest, scrawniest plants (which were allowed by the grow permit) and leave the immigrant with a citation for the excess. How did the police find out about the latest grow house?
    The Power Company would notify them that the house was drawing so much current that it was affecting the reliability of the electric service to the rest of the neighborhood.
    The Watermelons plans are for us to all move to urban areas, where “we have less impact on the environment” (and are easier to manage) then cut our energy dense sources for wind and solar, then have us grow sprouts in converted urban warehouses with grow lights that draw more power than server farms.
    Call me skeptical.
    I think I will help build the fence around the urban areas so the extremists (like me) can be kept out (The barb wire on top will slant in). I will also be outside with the food, the highway in, the water source, and power lines.

    • I once bought a house and they put a new electric meter on it. I’d used almost zero power because I’d not moved in, but the meter reader read the pointers wrong and it came out to near the maximum number on the dials. Of course I complained to the electric company and they checked and fixed the bill, but there’s more. A month later there was a heavy military style helicopter circling around and flying just above the power lines. No doubt they were looking for evidence of something illegal growing, though I can’t even grow beans reliably and don’t have any interest in pot! Eventually the chopper went away after waking the dead, but it gives an idea of how usage data gets shared.

  14. and the psyops and economic guru analysis is staggering . the media and theAI is so dumb and sick . we left evil out years ago

  15. Well shit. I got the call and I will back to grabbing gears thursday. Full union scale. Long term job. Running the other black gold. Asphalt. I used to pave for Cemex (one of the largest company’s in the world, even in Russia and China) for 3 seasons. Running on grinders all day for 12 hours and sleep in my car for 4 hours and then run all night laying black top. Back then the scale was only $33.90 and hour, time and a half after 8 and double time after 12. Saturday time and a half all day and double time after 6pm and double time all day Sunday. We worked 7 days when the season starts in a month. Make haste when the sunshining. Work 70-90 hours a week for 4-5 months straight. Really Good money.

    I used to work 12 on, sleep in the car for 4 hours and then work 12 -16 more then sleep in the car for 4 more house and do another 12-14. Then go home shower, eat, spank the wife, sleep for 8 hours and go back and do it all again. Back them id clear $75,000 take home 4 months. Now the scale is $45.90 an hour. Take the whole family to Maui for Christmas. Lol

    Whoo hoo! I love making money! Money is my friend. Im a money magnet! Hell yeah!!! Ha ha ha. Be good to get work after taking 13 months off. :)

    Probably won’t be around much. But that doesn’t mean im running off marrying any strippers any time soon.

    I think the SHG will moving over and in with me Probably 3 months from now.
    Got a really good place where im only paying $600 a month for a giant room all utilities included. Ride that for 3-4 months milk that cash cow and build a super good stash.

    Try to get rolling on writing a little more and get a new report up. Writing is just hobby for me… I aint dumb. I aint turning down that black gold. Hell yeah. Got head to town for a new camo hat.

    See ya all around. Im about to be busier than bustle on prom night.

    P.s. I had big Proud papa moment the other day at my 14 year olds daughters first volley ball game at the Y. She my youngest and favorite. All the kids know that.

    You know those moments George, when you say. Damn! Thats my kid! I made that one.

    The volleyball game was between 12-15 year old girls. Funny how they all hit their growth spurts different. My daughter looked like a Qtip with a pony tail out there. Little string bean.

    Now, you may have not noticed this about me, this may come as a suprize. but Im actually super competitive in life especially in playing sports and so is her Momma. So she got a double dose of that gene.

    She gets up to the center infront of the net. And on the other team this Amazon girl oh about 6 foot 1 gets up to serve. She is a big and mean looking girl. As she is walking up to her spot to serve and is slapping the ball up and down off the ground grunting. Reminiscent of them fellas in the movie 300 beating their spears on their shields. Hell, even as grown ass man, i was intimidated.

    The whole place is silent. Boom! Boom! As the ball bounced off the floor. Boom! Boom! Its gonna be a massacre. Everyone is Looking at Amazon girl.

    Then Out of the silence my daughter the Q-tip with a pony tail, in first ever volleyball game, screams accross the court at the top of her lungs, with that fierce look of determination on her face.

    “You couldn’t serve a wet pair of panties to a pride parade Bitch! Bring it!”

    The whole place erupts in laughter. I damn near fell out of my seat.
    Her mother jumped up and sceamed her first, middle and last name. That is a call to attention all mothers do. My daughter looked down at the floor. Because she knows better to mess with Momma. My ex wife looks over at me. I spit my coffee on the ground and was laughing so hard as im falling out of my chair, I had tears streaming out of my eyes. She says, don’t encourage her! She gets her mouth from you!

    I said yes mam and im gasping fot breath. Because I know better than to mess with momma too.

    The big girl waffles the serve and bounced it off the net on her side. And everyone on my daughters team gave my daughter a high five.

    Very proud papa moment. One I will never forget.

    Off go to pee in a cup.

    Have a great day dudes and dudets.

    “I got something to say. Its better to burn out than fade away.”

    Cue: ~ Rock of Ages ~
    Def Leppard.

    Clique 116!

  16. Uggh.
    The charts look horrible, like it is going to fall off a cliff, but DXY started collapsing Thursday & SPX is trading like it is in a fourth wave with all this chop, not coming down from a top.

    3950 was a major level and it ran out of room when it got up there, but I’m not liking what I see. My guess is the 3843 area for a 4th wave bottom, then one more up to go, ~4050 before we hit the top trendline again ~March 5 or 9th.

    Even in this downturn and a perfectly timed options buy at the top, they aren’t making a killing with all the chop. This ain’t how we’re supposed to top. I’d like one more run to do this right, or continuing to trade it this way will be a nightmare.

    Timing wise, it is bear season, and last year it started out as a sloppy mess too, so tough call. We are a year away from the start of the 2020 collapse now.

      • No.
        I exited most of my SPY 370 3/22 hedges near $6 from the mid 3’s and only holding what’s covered on house money. This looks like a horrendous 4th wave which went below my target this morning at 3804. If this spike to 3865 and pullback to 3828 holds, we are going over 4K by the end of next week.

        First thing to watch is is it gets over the morning spike at 3863. Next is the 3890 area, which is corrective measurement. A stop there, and perhaps another trip back down, but if 3925 gets hit, we are in a third wave up.

        This market is NOT for newbies.

        Every f—g move must be watched like a hawk, and the spikes down only give about a 5-15 minute exit window to capitalize on trades.

        I could be wrong, but I think the real top comes at the end of next week or following Monday morning.

        I said on another thread, the lowest I saw this going was 3620, and that’s if it was in the C Wave of a flat. It certainly has not traded as such, where you would expect a sharp drop from the top and small bounces. This has been the exact opposite. At least I have a hedge on house money after this mornings partial exit.

      • Market went nearly as outlined above, with a long entry signal. The problem is it closed at the area I said would be questionable, 3900. It really needed to go to 3925. This sets up the possibility of either a small retrace and move up, or the possibility we completed a B wave off the low in one session, and the ensuing C wave at 162% will go all the way down to 3640.

        There is no way to trade this market without your eyeballs on it constantly.

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