DDT: Another Data Dense Tuesday – Fed Starts – Flying the News

Gets to be kept short today.  I have been threatening short columns for the longest time and now, it’s time to deliver — less.

Let’s step over to the tee and discuss how we’re playing this round.

Lay of the Data

Topology matters in golf.  And so, it is in this round of Life.

We first notice that gold and silver are breaking downhill this morning. Gold was down to just over $4,600, and silver was dog-paddling a bit over $73.  Since striking toward $79,300 Monday, Bitcoin was floundering in the mid $76,000s early.

About here, a good caddy might infer that “something is going on with inflation expectations” since all of these indicators are pointing generally toward lower.

But the “money putt” on this round is being able to distinguish between a price decline due to the drying up of the “really free” money (think Yen carry trade) and the (later-to-come) real inflationary impact.  We’ve come to think of this as the “two camel humps” in markets many people miss.  You’ve got expectations setting one aspect while actual transactional quality drives another.

Headline Features

Which way is the course breaking online today?

The course has an uphill break ahead because Oil tops $110 as stalled US-Iran talks stoke supply concerns.

Over in the flash goggles department, US rejects Iranian proposal that excludes nuclear issue from talks. And speaking of talks, we expect a later-in-the-week ramble along the lines of “The King and I” as the savior meets the King: King Charles III arrives at the White House on a delicate mission to restore the UK-US relationship.

Speaking of relationships, our long-simmering low-intensity conflict with Mexico will stay back-burnered for a while longer. Mexico’s Sheinbaum rules out a conflict with U.S. over 2 CIA agents killed in Chihuahua accident.

Now, throw all that in the “So what?” pile.  Because we will be back with the Housing data (it matters). And this is Jerome Powell’s last Fed rate decision (1 PM EDT tomorrow), so with no rate change coming, will he threaten rate hikes later this year?

Two Stories That Count

The first one is about how the thinking of Gen Z is manipulated may be hinted at in How Urban Outfitters co-creates campaigns with Gen Z.

The other story, though it has faded to nearly no interest since we went to vegetation-killing with 20 percent organic vinegar – involves how Bayer Gets Mixed Reception at Supreme Court on Roundup Suits.

Which wheels us into an interesting topic….

Around the Ranch: “The News” that Isn’t 

I don’t know if I’ve ever mentioned this before, but before I even look at a screen, I spend a couple of minutes on “tasking myself.”

Which means what?

Well, I look at everything in my life – all those dozens of moving pieces – as a chess game.  In order to “win” at chess, the first thing you need to fixate on is the taking of the opponent’s King.

That’s how it begins: “Which Kings am I going to take today?”

This is a critical framing question before “going to news or social.”  You will quickly see that most of it really isn’t news.  It is meme planting, social control; and the monetization of quick clickery that’s making everyone but you and me rich.

Here’s an example (one I have mentioned many times): Jimmy Kimmel isn’t news.  Yet right here, in an otherwise respectable publication, what do I find? Kimmel Pushes Back Against White House and FLOTUS Criticism Of ‘Expectant Widow’ Joke in Forbes.

No, not People, not on Page Six…but Forbes for crying out loud.

A Flying Lesson to Help Filter “News”

About 15 years ago, Elaine and I were flying our plane out of the Georgia mountains.  We’d taken off from Elijay, Georgia where Hammerhead Aviation (back in the day) had done a “heavy check.”  It was in the cold time of the year.

Really cold. Temps were around 35 and as we climbed to pattern altitude for the planned downwind departure (to escape to warmer climes to the south), there was light snow beginning.

For the next hour, I must have spent almost half my time looking at the wings and back to the OAT (outside air temp) which finally moved above 40F about two-thirds of the way west to Natchez, Mississippi (KHEZ) where we topped off tanks and did some coffee recycling.

Icing of aircraft wings is dangerous stuff.  And when flying in the cold, a high data rate (looking at the wings) can become a personal life and death matter.  Under certain conditions, flying, the combo of air pressures on wing surfaces, supercooled water behavior, and pressure altitude can all drive icing at up to 40F.

Which has what to do with news?

High “data rates” of news depend where you are in life.  Hell yes, if you are active military – or in those spheres – news about recent command structure “You’re fired!” events are incredibly meaningful.  Tone-setting throughout the Command.

But, since Elaine’s been out of the military for (this long?) almost 45 years now(!) personnel changes in uniform (or adjacent) matter about…zero.

When we finally lifted off from KHEZ and headed west to the warm spaces of Texas, temperatures aloft were well above “Indian country” altitudes.  Wait.  You didn’t know?  Under 10,000 feet where all the Cherokees and Apaches fly. (A nod to the Navajos, as well.)

So, the news is like that. Sometimes – depending on your stripes – it can matter hugely and muchly.

But around here?  My electroculture tomatoes bolting up another 1.3 inches overnight is a much more edible metric to be tracking.

Before you compute, before you click: Ask what the “news to use” distills down to.  Any time you get off-mission, you’re burning life.  And once you get out here – less than three years from eighty for me – managing personal processor clicks is the whole ballgame. TTPF= time to plant food.

Jimmy Kimmel still isn’t news.  But I wouldn’t be here writing “truth to stupid” without a high data rate on local events that mattered in winter flying.

Back about 8:15 Central with the Housing report.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net