Right out of the chute today, a nod to the National Federation of Independent Business. Which issued a not-so-happy outlook today: “The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions falls 55 points in 4 months.”
“WASHINGTON, D.C. (Feb. 9, 2021) – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined in January to 95.0, down 0.9 from December and three points below the 47-year average of 98. Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months declined seven points to a net negative 23%, the lowest level since November 2013. The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions has fallen 55 points over the past four months.
“As Congress debates another stimulus package, small employers welcome any additional relief that will provide a powerful fiscal boost as their expectations for the future are uncertain,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “The COVID-19 pandemic continues to dictate how small businesses operate and owners are worried about future business conditions and sales.”
Drilling into it a bit:
Key findings include:
- Four of the 10 Index components declined, two improved, and four were unchanged.
- The NFIB Uncertainty Index decreased 2 points to 80.
- Sales expectations for the next three months declined 2 points to a net negative 6%.
- Earnings trends over the past three months declined 2 points to a net negative 16% reporting higher earnings compared to the prior period.
As we’ve discussed many times: The business picture is weakening and the amount of money being created out of “thin air” is evidence of “the U.S. Plan to Avoid Depression.”
Simply, a Big Data view shows a semi-collapsed economy with normalcy bias preventing social recognition. That’s fed by simply “making up money”. But at some point, Bubbles always break. The hard part is when.
After the data, Dow futures were down 50-ish. Pretty normal-looking backing and filling in a rally mode.
Where to begin? We have an economy still “down” from CV-19. However, with reports of the disease dropping dramatically, we can’t help but wonder “Has the data collection process been hijacked?”
Because when you look at the Johns Hopkins daily cases since the Inauguration, we can’t help but notice something akin to a linear decline which doesn’t seem quite natural:
Pardon the pen-wobble but you can see this decline is looking most un-natural. Spawning headlines like Covid Cases Lowest Since October” which leads to the chart here.
With AstraZeneca’s rollout on hold, J&J work slow, too, places like South Africa not only don’t have a plan but could now become a kind of global agar dish for variants. Marvey!
I’ve kicked the decline around with a couple of docs I know. One, who runs a large national medical organization, has had the virus twice. He dealt with it with hydroxychloroquine, realizing the drug was downplayed because it’s a generic now.
You may not frequent law firm blogs, but last summer there was a great discussion in The Lancet’s Retracted COVID-19 Study And What It Says About Treating a New Disease: Part I. His suspicions that the disease is more about power and money than good medicine has that “ring” to it.
But, another doc told me the statistical data may simply be the result of less testing being done (after the inauguration???). Still, we haven’t seen any convincing data on claims that nasal swabs are used to spread variants.
Fake news, fake medicine, where does it end?
Well, contrary to the rational expectation:
Bubble On, Dudes
Bitcoin had pulled back to $45,000 after topping $48,000. At least, tulips could be fried.
MarketWatch lays it out in “Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq end at records, powered by stimulus hopes and energy sector gains.”
Democrats in D.C.. (Fools on the Hill) are trying to roll a $1,400 per person stimulus bill into something that could be passed. As we correctly forecast last fall, 1) Don’t expect another stimulus check before the election [easily nailed that one!] and 2) Not until spring, if then.
March 21 will bring Spring…so 39-days to get money into your bank, or Ure will notch another one for logical thinking processes…
Let’s see how search engines are out to program us today, shall we? On the “big G stands for Goodness” we see the full-Trump slam is rolling on with:
Which means, near as we can figure that:
- Nothing has replaced Trump as a news media eye-magnet and monetization – yet.
- Example: The NY Times front page this morning was impeach, impeach, impeach, GOP militia, conservative media, Fox defending in its $2.7 billion voting machine case, and oh yeah, and…
- The WHO (who we trust very little) is now repeating China’s claim that CV-19 didn’t come from their lab. The WHO can only go on what China allows them to see, so it’s like cops trying to find a killer…who’s doling out evidence in just a certain way… (with apologies to Red Jon in the TV show The Mentalist).
The B news search results are reminding us that there’s been a passing in the music world:
Which brings up “The Supremes’ Mary Wilson Dead at 76: Diana Ross and Berry Gordy Pay Tribute.” Great singer!
So much for A.I. Next stop?
- How many times have I told you, there are better things to drink than water? Hack in Florida city’s water system reveals potential cyber risks of many local communities.
- College debt relief may be coming: New Legislation Helps Employees and Employers Work Together to Tackle $1.7 Trillion Student Debt Issue. Trouble with all this is, it transfers the costs onto everyone….so where was our free college half a century ago? (Unequal protection?)
- A sandstorm started last week is being cited by environmentalists in Europe as being dangerous and yada. yada. We’re pretty sure someone will work all this into fund-raisers or monetizations…
Last look at the futures (Dow -58) and so – a column under 1,000 words. How refreshing, huh?
Report on Elaine’s surgery coming Thursday…charts only on the Peoplenomics side tomorrow, but those are just interesting as hell.
Write when you get rich,