Whew! That’s-a some laundry list.
But no worries: Part of my new “less time writing” regimen (leaving more time for doing, at least in theory) demands we skip over the longish discussions and get right to the heart of the matter.
As often happens, credit for some keen insights goes to my consigliere for remarks on Moon Phases and the 10-year bond rate.
We’ll skip the details until tomorrow’s subscriber report on the Peoplenomics.com side of the house. But, let’s just say that we should know shortly whether the rather high potential for this to roll into a Turn-around Tuesday (e.g. ready for the bottom to fall out) is not low.
For one, the 10-year bond rate is up a good bit – and with the Greensill problems in Europe and rising rates – we have to wonder who is in trouble and from which direction will the “wind that blows over economies” be coming?
Which is all wrapped into the Fed’s paralysis: If they raise rates, stocks will collapse because the current bubble is only good with the continuous application of “free money.”
Speaking of which, no sign of that Stimulus money at our bank, yet. If yours has landed, post a comment. We’re naturally suspicious of free money until it shows up.
The flip side of the Fed’s dilemma is that they can’t lower rates, either. That would collapse gold and most other commodities. Real estate, yada, yada.
We look for much hype and blustery at tomorrow’s rate announcement and Chairman’s remarks.
But Here’s the “Real Deal”
The present long financial orgasm will come to an end. Free money and hype-o-saurus grande will only get you so far.
Then, people will begin asking hard questions:
- Why have dimmocrats opened (by abandoning defense of) the Mexico border?
- Why are there increasing fears about long-term vaccination impacts?
- Why are cases rising again if the peak is past?
The good news MAY be seen in this morning’s Retail Numbers – or not – depending on your ability to “think large and generalize” well.
This whole “work at home” thing for millions during the lockdowns brings about some interesting policy questions. If you can’t go to work – and you haver to set up shop at home – why hasn’t that Government for the People allowed people on a regular paycheck to write off at least the cost of home office supplies and fixtures?
See, part of the “economic recovery” on corporate balance sheets will – over time – be revealed to have been the result of not having to run cubicle farms so workers would have a place to work. Turn off the lights, the A/C, no parking, and so forth…kill commercial. Why it’s a bonanza on the balance sheet – financial frosting deluxe.
Comparing the tax filings of people working from home who didn’t go the 1099 route and stayed on as wage-earners would be interesting. They still need to buy (possibly more…) bandwidth, electricity for extended-hours heating and cooling, and a better web cam and….well, you know the list.
Which Has WHAT To Do With Retail?
Just thinking out loud here: You know how the Fed maintains internal delusion on inflation by mainly focusing on “prices less food and energy?”
Well, the same thing might be a plug-n-play for Retail.
Look at retail overall (the details in a sec.) and then back out auto sales because they can be up (when foreigners are buying Denali’s and the like). Or, they can be down when chips run out.
Similarly, how much of highly touted “rising personal disposable income” wasn’t really disposable at all: It went to more bandwidth, more electricity, some backdrops for video calls, a newer, faster laptop…well, you get the idea.
So: Here’s What Is Claimed
In the Retail figures just out:
“Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $561.7 billion, a decrease of 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 6.3 percent (±0.7 percent) above February 2020.
Total sales for the December 2020 through February 2021 period were up 6.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The December 2020 to January 2021 percent change was revised from up 5.3 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 7.6 percent (±0.3 percent).
Which picturizes (for the money-hypnotized) as:
The problem – which few will comprehend outside present company – is that this is a DOLLARIZED figure. So when retail craters at the same time M1 has more than DOUBLED in the past year, things are REALLY, REALLY BAD and lies of normalcy will be ratcheted up even more…
But, its not the only meaningful number today.
One of these days, China – holding over a trillion of our paper
mache money in the form of bonds – is going to wake up and want something of greater value than “interest only.” So with this in mind:
“The price index for U.S. imports increased 1.3 percent in February following a 1.4-percent advance the previous month. The January rise was the largest monthly advance since March 2012.
With the exception of a 0.1-percent downturn in October, import prices have increased each month since April 2020. Prices for
U.S. imports rose 3.0 percent over the past year, the largest 12-month advance since the index increased 3.4 percent from October 2017 to October 2018.
Your B.S. detector should be screaming: If import prices are up 3% how is it that government-counted inflation is significantly less.
Does the word LIES mean anything to you? See, if government admits to inflation being higher, Social Security, the interest rates (10-year and more) will precede Elon Musk to the moon and shit will tumble down around Babel II (the internet) like never before imagined.
People do have a real lack of vision and a thirst for mock-reality. Or, did you miss the last five decades of American politics?
Meantime, the dual policy problem for the Slow Joe club is “How do we onshore manufacturing enough to stop digging the indenture to Asia deeper?”
Rotsa ruck with that. Borrow from Chyna? Yeah…right.
We continue holding to the UrbanSurvival course: Buy, stock-up, and store the means of production for yourself. If you own your own roof and even a tiny source of food, look at who the winners were when Russia went down the same path to implosion. Strangely, I feel a kind of economic kinship with Dmitry Orlov (who is also worth reading).
Bolshevik bullshit always fails over time. Personal excellence and incentives always win. Complete courseware available in history books of the Soviet failure, ongoing poverty of Cuba, Zimbabwe’s burnt-out hulk. And how the Friends of Squad are prototyping what’s ahead for ‘Mercia in Venezuela.
I know that keeping the obvious in mind is hard, but the “woke” are Children of the October Revolution. Digital Mob Rule seizing assets from successful people and selling re-segregation and killing excellence. Gee, what could go wrong from here?
Just watch a while longer.
Functional Economics Aside (Food, Water, Roof)
What’s being sold to people of lesser horsepower? A horrible assortment of Divide and Conquer, frankly:
We’re not sure which financially linked company will fail – leading to us being in the functional equivalent to the Housing Bubble bursting in 2008-2009. But can’t see who to blame.
But stories like Covid Roller Coaster Adds To Blackpool’s Decline are worth reading.
What we’re looking for a “kindling events” – little stories (like Greensill) that propagate large (Credit Suisse) and then begin collapse hidden from view.
Or, will it just be the agglomeration of people towns (like Blackpool, England) which begin collapse in domino-like fashion back toward the faltering core – now run by DMR – digital mob rule? Another wave of disease? Round two of secret biowar? The plot options are breath-taking.
Woke Joke, II
Seems like our Monday note on Clumsy University and their woke-joke graduation racism is obvious to others, now. Reports Faux “Columbia University hosting 6 separate graduation ceremonies based on income level, race, ethnicities.
The Useful Pile
Where to begin?
“Russia Threatens to Block Twitter Within 30 Days” At least Russia is standing up to the digital mob chieftains.
NY Times reports “Foxconn May Produce Electric Vehicles in Wisconsin.” Cheese-mobiles? We’ll believe it when the production line is running. But could China flip some of their bonds into plant and equipment in the U.S.? I suppose so… hmm.
Warmonger’s Notebook: Calling it a Integrated review: UK nuclear stockpile to increase. Oh grand.
Glimmer of thought in our military, cites .mil expert warhammer?
“Pilots Could Be Eligible for Up to $420K to Stay in Service, reports Air Force Magazine. Somebody must’ve done the math on this scheme to prove it pays dividends with accrued flying and mission experience versus newb pilot training and military mission familiarization.”
Amazing! Something that makes sense!
And for the kneelers: Britain’s Prince Philip released from hospital after heart surgery.
Post Office Follies
Today’s postal misadventure (*with a few things arriving Monday) will be the call to the local Post Master (a Post Mistress) to see why a 48-inch long table was marked “mailbox full” when no one tried to deliver it Saturday.
In fairness, though, she explained that Amazon shipments used to come from Dallas to Palestine, Texas directly.
Now, some deep-stinker in the Post Office has decided to route Amazon goods through Houston which is 160-miles the wrong way.
Good news is that old electronic keyer I bought from a ham radio sort up in Pennsylvania on March 3 arrived here on the 15th.
Not to relax, though. Supply chains are still blowing up: Continuity Central cites a CapGemini report saying 66% of companies are planning to change their supply chains in the next 3-years. Some, may actually get it right, but holding your breath is a gamble.
OK: Drug day on Wall Street: With the Dow down 22 and the S&P up 2 after a shitty retail report, Reality ain’t what it was yesterday.
Write when you get rich,