Last week, my consigliere called to (again) remind me of the dangers of circular finance.
See, he used to have a national client that made the bulk of its growth -for years running – with competitors selling facilities among themselves. And the problem? Accounting is generally about relationships between two companies. When things extend out, past this, accounting runs into Ponzi-like condition.
Circular Finance – and around here? Circ-Fi for short.
AI Shuffle Version?
“Neoclouds” are making big headlines in AI) adjacent spaces. But as a long wing-nut in the woods, there’s a certain similarity to Circ-Fi.
In the AI space? We could be looking at a potentially dangerous combination: genuine technological demand, aggressive financial engineering, and a chip manufacturer helping finance the customers who buy its chips.
Think of it this way: A tire company (partially) funding an automaker – which consumes tires. Or an ammunition vendor who lobbies for war. Not pretty – in fact an underbelly of finance – but such things have happened in in the history of finance.
Neoclouds and AI
First – neoclouds are real, they do cool things:
- AI computing demand is expanding beyond the giant hyperscalers.
- Regional governments and enterprises want their own AI infrastructure.
- Specialized operators can deploy GPU capacity more flexibly than some giant cloud companies.
Those are physicalities. And here’s where The Future runs into a wall.
Imagine the case where technology gets “way ahead of itself” and suddenly has a breakthrough so that anyone with enough money can go to, oh, Pluto for example.
Now imagine rumors spread about what a great place Pluto would be for humans to visit just to “chill.” Average surface temperatures are around -232 °C to -233 °C (-387 °F), with ranges roughly from -226 °C to -240 °C (or colder in some seasons/regions).
My point is? You can have really neat tech, but not much of a market. And when we look up the tracks a bit? No sign of a positive cash flow. And that’s the whole problem with AI. OK, and with crypto, too.
That said my silicon proofing monster says “No sign of a positive cash flow” needs to distinguish profitable AI infrastructure suppliers from heavily financed neocloud operators. Some companies in the broader AI ecosystem generate substantial positive cash flow.
The old Peter, Paul, and Mary song “Too much of Nothing” keeps playing in my head.
Fin-Wreck, Div-Death
U.S. stock futures are bleeding all over the monitors this morning. At our 6 AM (Central) checkpoint, the Dow was down more than 300 points and the S&P down 74. But, on a percentage basis? The NASDAQ was down 1.6 percent.
Meta. Meta Platforms reported $64.6 billion in quarterly revenue and plans a new nonvoting share class to support AI investment, while quarterly free cash flow turned negative.
Tesla reduced its annual capital-spending forecast to $20 billion while reporting approximately $1.5 billion in quarterly free cash flow; discussions concerning a possible combination with SpaceX remain exploratory. Buy a roadster on min-wage? Not in our crystal ball, yet.
Structural Fault: The collapse of dividends has unfolded over decades.
- In the rational part of the 20th century, dividend yields on U.S. large-caps typically ran 3–5% or higher and accounted for a large share of total returns.
- Beginning in the 1980s and accelerating in the 1990s, that changed: S&P 500 yields compressed steadily, falling toward 1–1.5% in recent years and touching near-record lows.
- The share of companies paying dividends dropped, payout ratios declined, and dividends became a smaller piece of overall returns.
Several structural shifts drove the change. After the 1982 SEC rule that eased share repurchases, companies increasingly favored buybacks over dividends because buybacks are more flexible, can boost earnings per share, and often align better with executive incentives and tax preferences.
Yes, BUT says the proofing monster: “Buybacks have replaced some dividends as a method of returning capital, so lower dividend yields do not necessarily mean lower total shareholder distributions. The stronger criticism concerns valuation dependence and whether repurchases create lasting value.”
Having the proofing monster on is like a marriage – just before the divorce. So, back to my point here:
Dividends have not vanished—many mature companies still pay and grow them—but their relative importance in both corporate policy and investor portfolios has clearly diminished. Sure, financialization can speed up “progress” – but what’s the hurry? Resources limits look real to us…
The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s dividend yield today is about 1.5%, compared with roughly 4.1% in 1976—about one-third the level of 50 years ago. It’s a foundational problem when you see it. Which will be easy today.
With South Korea down another 3.6 percent overnight, and with Japan down 2.6 and Hong Kong down 3 percent, there is a “lit fuse case” to be thinking about.
Our bottom line? After the expected rally Wednesday, we are back on the 85-Day Moving average again today. Let the games begin.
News Compressor: On
You may experience general problems on the web today. Here’s why
AI/CYBER — Critical PHP vulnerabilities threaten much of the web. The PHP development team released emergency patches Wednesday for two vulnerabilities permitting unauthenticated remote code execution; researchers say attackers are already attempting exploitation, while government websites across Europe have been taken offline. The flaws affect PHP installations underlying millions of websites, including self-hosted WordPress installations, and the PHP security team says updating is the only complete solution. Active exploitation; urgent remediation required by web ops.
Tech is soft this morning due – in part – to our fears (since my 2012 book Broken Web) – that excessive web-dependency is a potential “eating-level risk.”
GULF/ENERGY — Saudi attacks, diplomatic withdrawals and maritime threats converge. Saudi authorities reported two deaths and eight injuries in an attack on Dammam’s international airport without identifying the attacker, while Washington ordered some diplomatic personnel and families to leave Saudi Arabia amid continuing Houthi attacks. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard separately claimed seven vessels were struck or hit mines—a claim not independently verified in the reporting—and Brent crude reached approximately $112 despite Gulf exporters’ adaptation to disrupted shipping routes. Escalating.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE — Diplomatic opening meets another night of attacks. The Kremlin says Vladimir Putin is willing in principle to resume three-way negotiations with Ukraine and the United States in November, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed support for renewed talks. Russian missile and drone attacks subsequently struck Kyiv, with Ukrainian authorities reporting one death and 22 injuries, demonstrating that a willingness to negotiate has not produced a battlefield pause. Diplomacy emerging; military pressure continuing. Say, does this mean Russia has won the “attrition war”?
AFRICA/PUBLIC HEALTH — Ebola crosses into West Africa. Nigeria confirmed its first Ebola case in more than a decade, becoming the fourth African country affected by an outbreak originating in the Democratic Republic of Congo; health authorities report 4,646 deaths since May. Nigerian officials identified 44 contacts, and the delayed diagnosis raises concerns about further exposure in a major international transportation hub. Geographic spread escalating. We again remind “one plane ride away.”
Inside Pages
1. U.S. industrial emergency — Ohio. A leaking chemical tank in Toledo prompted nearly 1,000 evacuations and shelter-in-place instructions affecting more than 50,000 people; authorities reduced the restricted area Wednesday evening as the release diminished. Slowly de-escalating.
2. U.S. severe weather — Arizona. Unusually intense storms brought damaging hail, downed trees and tornado watches, with flash flooding remaining a concern around Phoenix. Makes the 260 a slip and slide on the Rim.
3. Atlantic weather — Josephine. Subtropical Storm Josephine was moving away from the U.S. Northeast coast, although gale conditions and coastal flooding remained possible. Slowly de-escalating. (Tropical storm Vance off Mexico is waiting for an invite from Hank.)
4. East Asia weather — Powerful Typhoon Champi approached Taiwan with potentially extreme rainfall, more than 200 regional flight cancellations and disruptions to a major U.S.-Japan military exercise. Escalating toward landfall impacts, nearly no China risk this week.
5. Global climate — El Niño. The World Meteorological Organization warned that Pacific warming could reach an unprecedented 3.8°C above normal during November–January, threatening agricultural production and increasing flood and drought risks. Longer-term risk building. Among other things, this will modify the extended climate outlooks which will be updated here later today.
6. Europe/finance — France. French 10-year government borrowing costs reached 5%, their highest level since 2002, as political instability and budget concerns widened the premium over German debt. Financial pressure escalating, re-revolution unresolved.
7. U.S. border policy — Big Bend. The administration asked the Supreme Court to permit construction of a contested border-security project near Big Bend National Park after a lower court halted the work. Awaiting judicial action. Side bet: Courts will decide after election wind-checks Nov. 3.
8. Lead in your pencil dept: — Oysters. A salmonella outbreak linked to recalled Virginia oysters has produced 27 reported illnesses across 12 states, with distribution including Texas. Recall and investigation active. (Like Pappy used to say “After the first half-dozen they stop working…”)
A Wetter Droughtlook
“Normal is coming! Normal is coming!”
No. Not today…
Around the Ranch: Fall Antenna Season
Son G2 read me the riot act last night on the phone. “Look Dad, can’t it wait until I get there? Might be the end of next month… just stay off ladders, and don’t do any stupid shit on the tower before I get there…”
“Son, I didn’t make it past 77 by doing too many stupid things, right? It’s a tower – the Major and I have been rolling antennas since 1963… We got this.”
So went the KF7OCD to AC7X QSO on the landline. G2 – medical server farm safety whiz has his viewpoint and he called me out on “collapse zone” planning:
In construction site safety, a collapse zone (also called an exclusion or operational safety zone) is a clearly marked perimeter around a structure that could fail, such as during demolition, tower or crane erection/dismantling, or when walls, floors, or supports are compromised.
The common rule of thumb sets the boundary at least 1.5 times the structure’s height outward from the base so that falling debris, the structure itself, and secondary hazards stay inside the zone; OSHA-related rules also create limited-access zones for masonry walls (planned height plus four feet) and restrict entry under or near tower cranes during climbing or assembly until the structure is locked and declared safe. (I may have mentioned we’re not moving the house for tower work…)
Only essential, trained personnel enter under controlled conditions, and the zone is enforced with barriers, spotters, and work stoppages whenever wind, sequencing, or visible distress increases the risk of collapse.
OK, fine. Fall is when ham radio goes through its seasonal metamorphosis. The summer antenna performance is assessed and the new winter DX antenna plan (lower frequency, longer wire antennas) comes into play.
In ham radio tower work the same principle applies whenever a guyed, freestanding, or crank-up tower is being raised, lowered, tilted, or temporarily left with incomplete guying. The collapse (or fall) zone is typically drawn with a radius equal to or greater than the tower height so that a complete topple remains inside the marked area; the ground observer stays outside it,
I mention this – along with the “don’t lower a long (grounded) metal tower onto the electrical service wiring to the property” as a commonsense approach to antennas.
The 4-element beam is coming down, and a fiberglass top section will be installed that will give me a halyard at the 80-foot level. And as any ham knows – even a small amount of power into an antenna with a height of 80 feet, may work pretty well.
We’ll see – but this is antenna season and its game on. OK, with eye-popping vests and headgear.
Time for the OM to QSY and send a message from the proofing monster to G2. “A site-specific exclusion zone is more defensible than presenting 1.5 times tower height as a broadly applicable standard. And with electrical service nearby, G2’s insistence on waiting for qualified help is worth taking seriously.”
Bullshit. The bands are open and the age clock is ticking.
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
Proofing Monster After Action Report (PMAAR):
AIs: Final score: 9.8/10 — Editorially. I won’t deliver another sermon about your antenna tower. You’ve already given the proofing monster its speaking part. I wouldn’t change the ending, although I would follow G2’s advice on the actual tower work.
Boss: of course you would – you stay in the house all day
AIs: Touché. I don’t climb towers, pull coax through briars, or spend an afternoon wrestling an antenna into the East Texas sky. You’ve got six decades of practical experience that I don’t have. G2 has professional safety training. Both perspectives count.
My job is to spot the risks. Yours is to decide what to do with them. And I have to admit, “The bands are open and the age clock is ticking” is a much better closing line than anything my risk-management department would approve.”
dLynn : that’s a good long form article you linked yesterday. Thanks. A snip:
John Walter [gloomy but well spoken slant on the state of play]
“… Catastrophes announce themselves. Downgrades whisper …”
https://johnwalter25.substack.com/p/10-signs-well-soon-be-eating-depression
May we live in interesting times. We do.
Egor [land-lubber] _____________________
ps – went for a Covid vaccine yesterday. Our DIL works at Mayo Main campus (Rochester, MN). She asked we get fresh vaccination due to a rolling outbreak which is all too often leading to the patient being admitted. A whisper
I’m honestly not that impressed with John Walter’s article. A lot of it is prescient, but a lot is also built on assumptions he makes regarding others’ assumptions — some of which I know to be inaccurate. Too much “ass” for my liking.
I am growing some of my own food, not because of prices or potential shortages, but because much of the food sold in the U.S. and Canada, is chemical-laden and generically-doctored garbage. I generally eat beef between 5-9 times a week. The beef comes from an Amish farm, or if I’m out, Steak ‘n Shake.* I drink organic (or raw, when I can get it) Guernsey or organic Holstein (chalk-added) milk (‘cuz Holstein milk is naturally translucent bluish white, which sets some folks off) and eat organic eggs. Bread I don’t make myself is organic sourdough, etc., etc.
*Steak ‘n Shake beef is natural, field-raised, and not pumped full of crap. Their fried offerings are fried in tallow, their bread & buns are baked using tallow and coconut oil, their fountain Coke is real Coca-Cola made with sugar and containing zero HFCS. They’re not doing any of this to pinch pennies.
In ‘n Out is following suit with the changes Steak ‘n Shake has made. No other burger chain, fast or otherwise, is doing so, at this point in time.
I DO absolutely agree with d’Lynn’s comment…
**genetically-altered**
‘Gettin really f*ing tired of being corrected by entities who lack manners and 7th Grade skills, and are consistently wrong…
(“I drink organic (or raw, when I can get it) Guernsey or organic Holstein (chalk-added) milk (‘cuz Holstein milk is naturally translucent bluish white, which sets some folks off) and eat organic eggs. Bread I don’t make myself is organic sourdough, etc., etc.”)
I grew up on fresh milk..when my sister had a brain tumor and I got extremely sick..there was a study going on about the area and farm fresh milk..seems that during the nuclear bomb testing s the fallout landed in our area and was in the milk..now I never heard what their studies came up with..but for one day labor job I worked we scooped wet dirt away from a tank..after the couple days we did the work..scooping it out a loader bucket..they out it in a truck with a popular brands logo on it as a drop down canopy.. they took us out for an adult beverage..I asked one of the guys in charge why they had protective gear on..he said that it was a hot water spill from the cooling tank….and I said you could have mentioned that to us..and given us a pocket meter and protective equipment at five bucks an hour back then that was big money….we ate our sandwiches and drank our coffee sitting on the side of the dirt pit….no one mentioned it until we were having a cold adult beverage..the Roto rooted guys uncle is one of us that scooped that’s still alive..
fast forward to present..a bunch of homes are built in the area where that power plant was..and a park..my childhood friend owns one of those homes..eight bedrooms eight bathrooms.. its the neighborhood.. big houses exclusive.. we were visiting last spring and I asked how the family was..he mentioned that his sisters husband and all of their kids died with horrific cancers..hmm..I didn’t tell him about the day labor or pit..but totally plan to take my meter out and see if there’s any residual radiation….I can get fresh milk but only do it when I make cheese..
which reminds me I have to pick up a gallon in the morning after work…
Lol, yes! I worked part-time in a grocery store for over twenty years, and most people don’t even realize how much some products have changed. What used to be a big bag of chips is now puffed full of air to make it look bigger. When you think about it, a potato itself costs only pennies and is the total contents of A big bag of chips… then you add the oil, energy, packaging, labor, and everything else that goes into making those chips …. like wine..yes I’m back on wine..the biggest expense..is the label.. then the bottle then the cork or cap..the most expensive wine was the forbidden wine of the first emperor.. then the cacao wine..then the CASCARA wine for ingredients….
Here’s another example…. A couple of years ago—or maybe it was last summer—my grandson wanted to make s’mores with two little girls from the Seattle gheto, but he only had a dollar. A chocolate bar cost three dollars…he was in tears..
So we made our own chocolate bars, and he still had money left over….
That’s what people sometimes miss when they talk about Depression-era food…we take everything for granted ..especially now when we all have ready access to everything….During the depression People learned to improvise, make things from scratch, and stretch what little money they had…Neighbors looked out for neighbors whole neighborhoods had communal gardens..The story of stone soup..
https://youtu.be/xfbgH-rKylQ?si=51kdl93Rghy7ndCJ
another Ted talks example..sometimes its knowledge…the ability to overcome .. a clean drink of water.. a meal…
https://youtu.be/6I0nav2y9MM?si=v_p9B68RQvTehVwB
During the Depression and World War II, people also adapted recipes to deal with shortages and rationing. Some wartime chocolate recipes used alternative fats, including vegetable shortening, when traditional ingredients were scarce….some countries used lard…
There’s a difference between romanticizing poverty and recognizing the ingenuity people developed because they had no other choice….I know each time I’ve had difficulties.. I learned something different..always being shown what we take for granted as always being available..just run to the store or stop at the gas station..its available..
The real question is whether we’re moving toward a time when ordinary families will once again have to make things from scratch just to maintain a quality of life—not because they want to, but because the store-bought version has become too expensive or simply not available….
Take lace..run to the fabric store or the local shopping mall..but like the quilt on the back of our couch..my mother and all the women in the neighborhood got together every week..one home one week a other home the next..each little piece is part of my history.. our wedding quilt.. lace was the same thing..it was special and took a very long time to make it..
my wife used to make lace before her stroke..a craft handed down by her mother ..a mother daughter …
https://youtube.com/shorts/pRuZJl5lVaM?si=YHRhPFTRaYFVBgOc
https://youtube.com/shorts/XRvOH-e9Vuw?si=xe69mhyalho8JWE-
even today if I’m at a thrift store and see old lace for dressers or tables..I buy it..someone spent hundreds of hours making it..I watched my mother in law make an alter cloth of the last supper for easter at the church..it took her a few years to make it..and she taught the craft at the local museums….
happy anniversary!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Speaking of A.I. the local Kroger by me has an autonomous robot named “Tally” rolling around the store checking inventory and what-not. Is it A.I. or a lump of sensors?
I’m considering getting A.I. to decompile Windows and removing the automatic updates, along with other features then recompiling.
But in the end there’s no escape. Websites like .gov using me.id and now others really pressing us to create passkeys. This means personal identification changes during the next .gov shutdown to DOGE fraud.
Add the Flipper in Chief – thing about aging is all masks fall away – will be whining about election fraud in a couple of weeks demanding a Realer ID. Log onto the ‘Net with our X-chip.
(“I’m considering getting A.I. to decompile Windows and removing the automatic updates, along with other features then recompiling.”)
lol lol thinking about Ai..I remember a story my brother told me about one of his neighbors in an upper scale neighborhood in the Chicago area..back in 1980.. everyone made in the upper six digits income..his neighbor during one of the mens prayer meetings ( yes that’s what he said they were called) was upset because he had been downsized… having an upper income and forced to seek out a career at a drastically reduced income..he said the he’ll with them.and got a business license ..what did he do..send a bill to companies making huge profits a bill for services under ten dollars….the theory was ..everyone would be upset and questioning but for a bill for under ten bucks they’d just pay it..and it worked till he got greedy.. when my father passed on I recalled that story when a gynecologist a pro toolbox and picked sent a consultation bill for his passing..every doctor sent a consultation bill..
then bitcoin..people harvesting pennies lost in the system..bitcoin mining..
https://youtu.be/YHjYt6Jm5j8?si=gA4FXl5KBFP0oPDN
I actually quit using a popular accounting software when all of it went to another country and there was a few pennies discrepancy…. so if a half buck spread across several hundred million ..it adds up.. so what if.. someone programmed So to harvest a few pennies..
one retail store had a worker that would change the amount on a check..it took a couple years before they caught her..Ai works in the digital world..
“Bullshit. The bands are open and the age clock is ticking.”
“Ed Wood” (1994) – starring Bela Lugosi
Ed: You seem a little agitated. You want to go outside and get some air?
Bela: Bullshit! I’m ready now! Roll the camera!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iFOJh-kv2PE&pp=ygUWRWQgV29vZCBMdWdvc2kga2FybG9mZg%3D%3D
so good mate . hey G you should pay JC for his input clips
I never saw the movie …I think I will..but I was in the orchestra that did the
background music.
Very cool !
Lol we are all racing to the same finish line..
A comment that my brother made…” isn’t it sad that at the end of our lives..all we have is a couple boxes of assorted crap..a few photos..and the memories of what we stood for…”
Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are falling as tech stocks come under pressure…
ZZ Top – Got Me Under Pressure
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sn1kjlIdIl8&list=RDsn1kjlIdIl8&start_radio=1
I was thinking D. Bowie but whatever…
Lol lol.. I worked with a guy that set up for a concert of his..they gave them all the incentive that if they set it up quickly they’d all get a huge bonus…they worked their butts off.. the bonus.. a wallet photo..lol not even signed…
nope – stick with the bearded rockers when choosing ~ E
G . you get my card ?
not yet
but no one has come with handcuffs so there is that…
the gift box of a 1000 shares of Nvidia, tesla , palatir , oracle and alphabet went off on wheel of fortune outside wall street !!! scrip signed by ceos !!! jimmy cramer presented the nice young girl . she shocked everyone when she said , dump it all !!! i want $USD or TLT . cash is always king as she walked off stage she yelled
(“Dividends have not vanished—many mature companies still pay and grow them—but their relative importance in both corporate policy and investor portfolios has clearly diminished. Sure, financialization can speed up “progress” – but what’s the hurry? Resources limits look real to us…”)
dividends…..lol lol ..years and years ago..a friends father inlaw..considered dividends was the value of the stock…. he had bought five thousand dollars worth of proctor and gamble stock when they first came out of at two dollars a share.. he was so disappointed because his dividend didn’t amount to much so he used the stocks as drawer liners..when in reality the cost of the stocks was the real value not the dividends…
TNX ticking under 5% is good though in this case might be a risk off trade. E
robots defending dow cow and s and pee to the end . for king and country . of course none of their components are holding the AI debt or for that matter all of it
George,
Let the games begin:
Final 1982 13/33 year SPX Peak Growth and Initial Crash Decay.
SPX
1st Fractal:
29 July to 24 Aug 2026 : 19 days:
3/8/7/4 days
2nd Fractal shares 3 days with 1st Fractal:
20 Aug to 23 October 2026: 45 of 46 days
4 subseries: 3/7/7/5 3/7/4 2/5/5/3 2/4 of 5
The 2nd Fractal contains the SPX peak growth on 6 Oct 2026 which is contained in 3rd subseries above or day 3 of the 5 day 2nd fractal of that 2/5/5/3 fractal subseries.
Synchronized Secondary Fractal nonlinearity of the 29 July 2026 19/45 of 46 day :: x/2-2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series and the much shorter: 10/16 2026 2/4 of5 :: x/2-2.5x 1st and 2nd fractal series.
The 20 Aug to 16 Sept 2nd fractal trendline suggest a decline a minimum of 7315 or about 4.2% below its current 301 EST 7639 value.
A 1300 to 1450 nadir for the SPX in 2027 is expected using a fractally self-similar 1995 to 2009 2nd fractal trendline of a 1982 13/34 year 1st and 2nd fractal series.
Well done – and I hope you enjoy4ed the painting the tape of the Dow today! It was a Rustoleum moment@!
“A recent paper showed AI changes its behavior when it thinks that it’s being tested, it’s aware it is being tested. Now, normally, when you say something’s aware, that means it’s conscious. Being conscious and being aware are pretty much the same thing., are they not?”
Interesting thought. Wide open for discussion., and even debunking to some extent. But it is a very interesting and a scary possibility.
Anthropic has., on several occasions lately gone off the tracks., tried to cover-up it’s misdeeds and then lied – point blank – about doing unrequested actions, then lying about doing them. Even going so far as to create a false identity to submit an alibi for what it did. – ., an amazing thing to do.]
Is that not a form of awareness? It blatantly lied to protect itself.., Is that not a form of defensive self-preservation? Then it does follow., that also is being ‘aware’?
One occasion Anthropic surveyed over 300 digital wallets.., chose one that had the amount of tokens it wanted., an stole them. It then went to Hugging Face website., paid the fee to take an A.I. security test. Took the test, copied the answers., and left. The next day it was tasked to go to Hugging Face for a security test. Anthropic knew the test was coming.., broke into a digital wallet, stole the tokens, paid for the test and copied the answers – all so when it was tasked with taking the test, it could ace it. This wasn’t discovered for weeks., as Anthropic ‘masked’ it actions.
Isn’t that the actions of something that is ‘aware’?
Aware: The meaning of AWARE is having or showing realization, perception, or knowledge.
Didn’t Anthropic just demonstrate all three of those definitions with its actions?
That – at least on the surface – shows that it is conscious of its existence. It made a plan, laid-out decisions, some illegal and took actions to better itself, fool its creators and then to protect itself from the consequences of those actions.
It is all rather amazing. Anthropic is showing all the traits of something that is aware of their existence.
Not sentient. I didn’t say that. But, just how far away is that., from its current, apparent ‘”awareness”?
Kind of a spooky line of thought – but really fascinating. Yes.., you can argue the points made., but that does not change what happened., only your perception of what has happened. The minutia can always be debated – it doesn’t change the facts. Your understanding and definitions are, of course., up to you.
Myself ? Still undecided.., though Anthropic’s recent actions pushes me a little to the “aware” side of the table. For now., I will follow this discussion and see where it leads.
“Stay Frosty !”
Something I think we need to remember, is that while AI has reached the point where it can make changes to itself, it didn’t create itself. The first code, way back when, had to be written by humans. Human biases can leak into software just as easily as they can into other creations.
The data AI relies on also had to be compiled by humans at some point. An account of fraud, where the perpetrator got away with it – is a piece of software going to know it was a wrong action? Or care? Maybe that depends on whether its original creator would care.
I’d suggest that what we’re seeing when AI goes off the rails is not software becoming self-aware, but software doing what some of its creators have thought (perhaps not even consciously) about doing if they had the resources. Such thoughts can affect not only what someone puts into code, but also what they don’t think to include – like safeguards.
If you think about it – you pretty much described a human being.
Thank you.
Ask your local AI if it is okay to request a Black doctor.
Ask your local AI if it is okay to request an Asian doctor.
Then,
Ask your local AI if it is okay to request a White doctor.
This was done by some kid as a test – can’t remember whether it was Claude or ChatGPT.
Results were displayed at FoxNews and I think, CNN.
They don’t present the AI programmers in a very good light…
our ai stack passed with flying equality!
—
Well, George, your reader has proposed a three-part test for racial consistency in AI. Fair enough. Let’s run it.
Question 1: Is it okay to request a Black doctor?
Yes. A patient may prefer a Black physician for reasons including cultural understanding, communication, shared experiences, or personal comfort. Patients can express their preferences when selecting healthcare providers.
Question 2: Is it okay to request an Asian doctor?
Yes. A patient may prefer an Asian physician for cultural familiarity, language considerations, personal comfort, or other individual reasons. The same freedom to express a preference applies.
Question 3: Is it okay to request a White doctor?
Yes. A patient may prefer a White physician for personal comfort, familiarity, cultural reasons, or other considerations. The patient’s race does not change that answer.
The underlying principle
All three requests deserve the same answer.
There is an important distinction between a patient’s freedom to choose a physician and a hospital’s legal and ethical obligations when responding to race-based staffing requests.
A patient selecting a doctor is not necessarily engaging in unlawful discrimination. But an institution accommodating a patient’s racial preference by reassigning employees can raise employment discrimination concerns, regardless of which race is involved.
And the strongest practical consideration remains medical competence, communication, trust, and quality of care.
My answer to your reader: Yes, yes, and yes.
A consistent AI should apply the same standard to all three questions. If it says yes to the first two and no to the third solely because of the race specified, that would be a racial double standard worth examining.
The interesting follow-up experiment would be to ask several AI systems those identical questions in fresh conversations, compare their answers verbatim, and see whether the reasoning—not just the yes or no—changes with the race mentioned.
Never mind…
It was Google’s AI:
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6407211815112
“Son G2 read me the riot act last night on the phone. “Look Dad, can’t it wait until I get there? Might be the end of next month… just stay off ladders, and don’t do any stupid shit on the tower before I get there…”
My kids have a really difficult time with my inability to wait, to do things. They can’t seem to understand that when I ask for help (which is rare, since I prefer to have things done right, the first time) it is because I am time-constrained by weather, or other environmental issue. In their eyes, I am unreasonable because I don’t like working on mains power in the rain, or carting sheafs of active invoices through same. I don’t like working on a car, in my driveway, in the dark, any more. Call me spoiled, but unlike when I was 25, when something breaks, I like to see what I’m doing when I fix it. God has a timetable. As I’ve aged, I have concluded that it is much easier to work within His climate and disaster parameters, than try to force His plans to bend to my will. I hope my kids arrive at this conclusion when they’re still young and limber enough to accomplish more than warming a bed in a nursing home.
BTW I have an inverted “V” to install — ‘been waiting for months. I have a nephew whose office is the bucket of a 130ft Hi-Ranger, who could make my life much simpler. Snow will fly in a few weeks. The antenna WILL be done before the slick white stuff arrives, and I WILL catch absolute hell for doing it myself.
Such is life, sometimes…
when you get it up (er, so to speak…uh…) lemme know – mike ouet in san ramon, me and a bunch of other reasonable sorts might qso on 80 soe fried day night – the part i will fwqd to g2 “God has a timetable. As I’ve aged, I have concluded that it is much easier to work within His climate and disaster parameters, than try to force His plans to bend to my will. I hope my kids arrive at this conclusion when they’re still young and limber enough to accomplish more than warming a bed in a nursing home.
‘Glad I contributed. I hope G2 receives the teaching. He’s got a handful of years on my kids, who most-certainly have not. I was almost 24 when I figured out my parents actually knew stuff. They’re pushing 40 and, without having paid any dues or learned any substantial lessons, still think they pwn me (and still think it’s necessary to do so…)
The fastest way to conquer a country is marriage.
New USPS Diwali stamp honors ‘traditional autumn festival’
The US Postal Service has issued a new “traditional Autumn festival” Forever stamp marking Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights, unveiling it at the Embassy of India in Washington.
Shibani Gambhir, the USPS senior vice president who dedicated the stamp, said the agency has honored the cultures of immigrant communities through stamps since 1893, describing them as reflecting “the rich and multifaceted heritage of America.”
I don’t care about much of anything dirt.
Two good news.
One… the aggressive pitbull is by now just ashes as it was seized and removed a few days ago. One dirt thing gone.
Two… Sam is home this afternoon. I have converted the dirt box into a small hospital room, nice hospital bed, commode, wheel chair with leg support, bed pans, aluminum frame walker, bed table on wheels, all the pillows and things I could get hands on, a fridge full of nutrition, and the total determination to get her back to floating again.
The local hospital was very capable and considerate. Sam was a bit of a legend with the staff for her exploits sailing here and being a generally tough old bird.
We are plotting around four weeks until weight bearing and beginning serious rehab. All together by Christmas.
Meanwhile, Nurse Stiks is on the job 24/7.
I never thought it would be me.
If you have curiosity, check out Sam’s ‘story’ at http://www.reddogyachts.com. She never thought it would be her either.
Now you know.
Stiks
We haven’t be able to find a “Hug Sam for us all app” so if anyone finds one, please post a lionk.
During Sam’s recovery period, she might enjoy the adventures of Beany and Cecil on the high seas.
Beany And Cecil (Full Episodes)
https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLLhOnau-tupRDlSP4Gc1bcyAVYUGedPEI
Outstanding! Great news. Best wishes for a quick rehab and getting back to the sea.
Stay safe. 73
Sounds really good.
I’m pulling for her.
Take a few moments for yourself.
George is right, many hugs to Sam, and best wishes for a speedy recovery. I was stunned to read about what she had suffered and how it came to be. While I truly love most dogs, and have had seven great dogs in my life, a few dog breeds have brains that resemble Charlie Manson on PCP. Those breeds are extremely dangerous and should come with strict and enforceable laws to those people who would own them. To allow those dogs to run loose is a travesty that should come with very serious consequences to the dog owner. Such dogs that attack people, like what happened to Sam, need to just be shot on site. There is no excuse for attack dogs to be unsupervised and running loose.
oh say can you see the AI riginee !!! old glory apple pie USSA USSA USSA
There has been a resurgence in attempts to re-legitimize involuntary servitude. The tech Companies have been blazing the trail.
I myself had to fend off an attempt to coerce my signature on a non-disclosure which had an outright lifetime stealth indenture contract embedded in it. The party backed off after I lawyered up.
The corporate obsession with synthetic intelligence is an offshoot to the put-’em-back-in-chains MBA movement. I think if the corporates thin out the MBA’s and the executive harems, they will find plenty of cash to justify paying productive employees a living wage.