Coping: Personal “Hype Filter” Design Notes

Communications:  Parable from the Old Man Labs on tape this morning: When you think about it, the parallel between how human being operate at the personal information processing level is very much like the design of a radio receiver.

Except, perhaps, while the radio design we speak of here is usually the super heterodyne variety, the humans might be characterized as the super hypeodyne variety.  Yes, we receive and act on hype.

Both receiver-types have optimal designs and there are some very useful parallel concepts to be understood to better manage our personal thinking and  performance – whether radio or the human – as we target peak results.

(Continues below)

 

To begin with, though, a few bits of basic information are useful.

The first concept is that noise is additive.  We could go into how inter-stage noise in couple amplifiers work, but it’s a simple enough term that it should be apparent.

Like the kindergarten (or grade school) exercise where kids sit in a circle.  The facilitator, or teacher, whispers something (usually a short story of a sentence or two) into the ear of the first student.

This student, in turn, passes the information on to the student on their other side, whispering it, as well.

As you would expect, the “story” that comes out after 20 – or more repeats – is usually TOTALLY different than the “seeded question” given at the beginning.

This is critically important to understand when looking at media and your computer.

If you want to base your life on “closest to source” information, you need to be extremely aware of this repetition (or in radios amplification) distortion factor.

Take a typical “news” story and you can see how this works.  The story about third world sh*tholes is a dandy.

What the president actually said was to the effect “Why can’t we get more immigrants from Norway and Asia?”

The crooked media – in their zeal to prosecute Trump  (or is that persecute?) simply though deliberately dropped the mention of Asia.

This done, the repetition error was free to run amuck. By the time it was repeated and then misquoted by media experts, the story first went “Trump thinks Haiti is a sh*thole” to “Trump wants just immigration from Norway.”

And this – after more distortions fanned by anti-Trump sentiment instilled by dark forces – simplified at the other side of the room to “Trump is a racist.”

The grown-ups in the room see it…but the PROBLEM is that over half of the voters are only going to head the distorted message at the end of the repetition cycle.

It’s an axiom of public relations design that “People tend to remember the last thing they heard on a topic” – which I don’t know if you’ve heard before, so there it is.

That’s one problem.

But now, let’s consider the additive noise contribution along the way.

In a radio receiver, we can observe (and measure) noise at every point in the design.  Let me run through a few of them for you:

  • There is antenna noise.
  • There is first amplifier noise.
  • There is mixer noise.
  • There is more amplifier noise.
  • There is detector noise.
  • And there is audio (amplifier) noise.

Signal noise analysis has an analog in how you and I live in the hypeodyne world.

First there is “antenna noise.”  We trust the media to faithfully report simple stories and concrete facts.  But, as the “sh*thole” adventure teaches, malicious editing abounds.

The news antenna design itself is prone to picking up unwanted noise.  A source example would be Dick Durban who was playing a filthy political agenda by playing the race card, made possible by mentioning Norway but not Asia for his sickly partisan agenda.  By feeding the already malfunction news antennas of the northeast – which are noisy devices already, he is tuning the hypeodyne for party and perhaps personal gain…

Then there is our first amplifier distortion.  Simply thought of by where the story places on key “repeater” websites like Drudge.  Top story on Drudge distorts the amplitude of the signal making it stand out, or not.

At the other extreme, Bitcoin has just broken critical support and is likely headed down to the $6,000 range as a result.  We rather expect this will be important but since the media (antennas) aren’t passing on that signal people in the main are oblivious to the tulips collapsing there.

The media antennae are – just as in radios – directional in nature.  Thing is, most people don’t realize that simple fact.  So as the media looks in one direction, the real meaningful data is often in another direction.

The useful radio analog here is the directional antennas such as the Yagi (Uda) beam, cubical quad, or the (hope you have the real estate) rhombic antenna.

Then there is mixer noise as we follow the signal path.

In a radio receiver, a high frequency signal is mixed with a local signal to result in a third signal – the desired one, which will then be further amplified and processed.

What are your personal mixer analogs?

Well, you have friends, social media, colleagues at work, people at the gym, folks at the store, relatives, and everyone who texts, calls, speaks, writers, or otherwise changes how you process an event like “sh*tholes.”

Now you have a “signal” that you personally amplify.  This kind of amplifier noise comes from your childhood, life experience, and so forth.  If you have been raised a minority in America, you’d amplify the (distorted, maliciously edited) signal from the media antenna differently than if you were a) hearing the complete quote with the further context.  And colored by examples of racism that you’d personally experience because yes, racism is still existent in the world today.

Detector noise is that what you think about the “sh*thole” story will depend on what the other pressures were striking you on a particular day.  If you’d been in a traffic accident when the story broke, it would have little to no importance compared to getting insurance quotes, filling out the accident report, making sure you didn’t get a whiplash, and so on.

And then once once all this is amplified with all this damn distortion adding up along the way, we get to the audio noise analog.

In other words, once it has come of the screen, or speaker, what are you going to do?  If you watch passively (as we try to do) little further distortion occurs.  But actions taken here (re-actions, technically) will then form a feedback loop back to the antenna (the media) which is why riots happened in Ferguson, Baltimore, and what have you.

To us, it is just a matter of looking clinically at the source-media-influencers-amplifiers-detector distortions along the way.  But, people unaware that they are in very real terms acting the part of “predictable little information processors” will be subject to easy tuning (manipulation) all the time.

So, as a thought model, we prefer to think of ourselves as high performance triple-conversion super heterodyne analogs than unaware little hypeodyne receivers.

As your class project this morning, here’s are some “stories being whispered” to the class of hypeodyne trainees this morning:

STUDY: Worst-case ‘global warming’ scenarios NOT credible…

Trump wall: President’s view on Mexico border has changed – Kelly

President Trump’s Use of Executive Privilege Has Been Likened to a ‘Gag Order’.

And from our favorite directional antenna of all? Tech workers flee US, blame Trump.

Drop by tomorrow for another lesson in “Hacking social programming.”

This is why engineers – intuitively understanding linked stages by their training – tend to think more rationally than liberal arts majors.  Simple, huh?

Write when you get rich,

George@ure.net

Public Peoplenomics Update: Bitcoin Blows

Normally not something we’d post “in the clear” but please note the complete cover-up of the Bitcoin collapse in the co-opted Mainstream Media.  If the Dow Jones lost OVER HALF ITS VALUE in  a month, you don’t think that would be the front page splash?  (And they’d find a way to blame it on Trump, too, lol…)

Google showed the conversion at $9,287 at 10:44 Eastern and that puts it down $1,000 from this morning’s report.  BITCOIN IS TRADING LESS THAN HALF ITS ALL-TIME HIGH in the $19,500 range. This is a HUMUGOUS digital tulip event, beyond question.

Oddly, we haven’t received the daily preach from the buy-the-dips crowd.  Meantime, the stock market is still holding onto modest gains in keeping with our BrainAmp.xlsx outputs which predicted something like 25,939 for a closing Dow today in a Wave 2 bounce…before resuming down, perhaps.  Good trading to all…

Regulate Predatory Business Models?

This morning (after headlines and charts) we ask a very important question.

While not apparent on the surface, one of the macro trends most American’s don’t seem to notice (thanks to lowest-common-denominator media clowns) is that open warfare on We the People has been declared by corporations.  Which, in case you’ve forgotten Citizens United, are now superior to humans in some very fungible ways.

Starting with social media, is it time to regulate how corporations make money?  We’ve done it in drugs, airlines, and tons of other places.  Why is social special?  I mean, except that they are, of course.

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5T Day: Tuesday’s Terrible Truths about The Trends

Say, don’t want to run this stuff in your face, particularly if you’re a Coiner and haven’t laid-back enough to buy a subscription to Peoplenomics (and pay all those short-term capital gains you’ll owe this year), but I just have to point out that with Bitcoins trading in the $12,250 range, you will want to look again at where we are per our trend channel work:

Does this mean The End is here (or near) for cryptos so dear?  See our Monday discussion of what “momentary” means.  Can’t say for sure, but when it comes, we expect it could “let some of the air out” of the stock market.

(Continues below)

 

What we see as as something of a rollover may be occurring, however.  The stock market futures were up +200 on the Dow when I looked.  This suggests that there is “new money” coming into the market from somewhere.

We have three suspects, or sources.

One is people realizing that with the tax cuts, this might be a good time to actually save a little something for a rainy day.  The money coming in this way is likely long-term dough and won’t increase market volatility, too much/. (knock on wood, right?)

The next source is the notion that some of the criminal element in Bitcoin positions has rolled out of “silk road” money and is looking for something more legit and less subject to confiscation as ill-gotten gains.

The reason I think this way is simple:  Bitcoin – and any other crypto, for that matter – is only has good as the media you have it parked on.

So, since real criminals are very, very, smart (think Raymond Reddington types if you follow The Black List) they will have figured out how many hours a hard drive (or how many read-writes a sim chip) is good for.  Best roll dough off them before failure because if they don’t, the “money” could be gone.

I won’t say who the friend is, but someone I know is already out $40K because of a “lost wallet” issue.  Remember where you read it first: Besides being much too slow to be a major money replacement, Bitcoin users are subject to hardware failures.  Poof!

And this gets us to the third kind of money that’s looking at the market and which could fuel a 1929-equaling blow-off which we sure seem to be in:  Fixed income money is looking at the rollover into inflation – and what may turn into hyperinflation and asking “What will go up in value?”

Ure’s thoughts on this are dirt-simple:  Metals, Oil, Foods.  The lack of hype out of the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas is hinting (to us, at least) that the 20-year boom from tech may be slowing.  Over time it has done what, exactly?

Well, tech has brought us the Internet.  This has enabled the end of conventional news distribution so ably capitalized on by the Tweeter-in-Chief.  The decline of ad power is driving the media to new levels of left-wing fear mongering, and oh yeah – tech has also brought us social media.  Which, as we point out in the Coping section to follow this morning is where networked computing’s version of DIGITAL LYNCH MOBS (a/k/a/ social just-us warriors) are being monetized right now.

Obviously, people in Bonds won’t want to see their portfolios decline, so they will likely put a little dough on the long side of the market based on the idea that something’s bound to go up.

And yes, it is, and it will continue doing so for a while.  We will have some firmer projections in Peoplenomics tomorrow, but for now, there is no end of the bull market in sight for stocks.  When I have lost money trading in the past year, it was because I didn’t follow my perfectly-performing trading model.  Who would have thought a few spreadsheets and some math could outperform the gut-trading human?  Which is why we don’t try to front-run the models anymore.

And the models say…well, more on that tomorrow on the subscriber side.  Meanwhile, though, the hype continues: Global Blockchain Technology Market to Be Worth USD 13.96 Billion by 2022. Trend channels say tread cautiously.

Need more blockhead hype? Maersk, IBM to launch blockchain-based platform for global trade.  OK, why?  Isn’t the present technology working?

Econ Data du Jour

NY Fed Survey:

Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index, at 17.7, was little changed from last month’s level.

Dow may bust over 26,000 at open with futures +209.

NKs Planning Cyber Pearl Harbor?

We have been following snips that chief Nostracodeus programmer Grady has been culling from Twitter and other places around the net about B-52 rumored to be positioning into the Pacific.

We’re also not fooled by the NorK’s sending some athletes to the Seoul Winter Olympics and maybe an orchestra – all on the docket for next week’s hype-fest of useless media.

Instead, read this backgrounder from out .mil whiz Warhammer  because itd IS important:

“Hi George,

Not just nukes, Rocket Man and terrorist attacks are on the minds of US defense leaders.  This interesting and admittedly frightening attack concept is occupying the minds of senior leaders in Washington lately (from AF Times News):

Head of DOD IT Cybersecurity: Monster Cyber Attack “Looming”

The Pentagon is “prepared for” an unprecedented cyber attack, says director of the Defense Information Systems Agency, touting continuous and ongoing success defending against attacks that are increasing in both frequency and scale. Army Lt. Gen. Alan Lynn called the anticipated attack a “terabyte of death,” hundreds of times larger in-scale than those in recent years. “We know it’s coming,” he said at an Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association event in Washington, D.C., according to a DOD release. Lynn commended the Defense Department on holding down the fort thus far, but said he’d found the scale of the cyber offensive against American networks “truly surprising and it still continues to surprise me just how robust the attacks have become.” For example, D?OD used to have to protect against one- or two-gigabyte attacks. “Now, we get 600-gig attacks on the internet access points and unique, different ways of attacking that we hadn’t thought of before,” he added.  The Air Force is working with DISA on redesigning its own network gateway infrastructure—the one defending those access points—climbing aboard a federal effort to conjoin the services into one, central highway for web traffic. Air Force Magazine dug deep into the cybersecurity challenges facing USAF in its January cover story. DOD is aiming to reduce stovepipes of cybersecurity policing and increase visibility and reaction time in its systems. This is an ongoing challenge, especially on the the Defense Department’s scale, where 3.2 million people interact with its networks, according to Lynn, who retires in February. —Gideon Grudo

Indeed, a well planned a comprehensive cyber attack can inflict almost as much chaos upon a nation as a high altitude EMP attack, but for a more limited amount of time.  Still, critical infrastructure would suffer, e.e. food, water, energy, gasoline and essential supply distribution would be largely halted and a great deal of the population inadequately prepped for such things would endure life threatening hardships.

How many Trojan horses are already in place, silently waiting in hard drives and processor firmware, ubiquitously spread across every imaginable sector of our daily lives.  Every new smart electronic device could contribute to the “Terabytes of death” scenario….”

And, are there still routers – made overseas, yeah? – which have backdoors in the code we haven’t found?

This threat is evolving quickly:  In August of last year a White House advisory group was on it.

There’s not too much that can be done about this as the personal level – other than hardening websites,  backing up data off the net, and such.  Lots of back-up, sure.  Can’t ever have too many.

But taken in concert with the early lesson on how much has already been lost in Bitcoin on data losses, we can only imagine what a digital Pearl Harbor would be like.  Especially one timed to coincide with mass distractions.

Like the Olympics and Mueller’s fishing…

In View: The End of Detroit

The big Auto Show is on in Motown.  It comes with the expected battle between the new ways and the old.

On the new ways side, we have GM with an aggressive plan to field driveless cars in 2019.  More to the old-school, we laughed as Nissan was trying to ‘splain to skeptics like me how their new Xmotion design concept is really anything new.

When we read this “...we’re drawing on Japanese aesthetics and techniques that have been passed down generation after generation to create a timeless visual impression...” the whole battle of the new tech versus the old became crystal-clear without the need of another latte.

Companies that don’t have plans for the arrival of driverless cars – which will mean the end of dealer networks and the like – are the corporate ostriches of the decade.

Oh – for our reader in Hawaii, notice this:  Japan broadcaster alerts North Korea missile launch that didn’t happen. What rolls downhill?

News That’s Noise

White House doc to provide more details about Trump’s health.  WHY?  So social media and the Useless media can second guess and diagnose?  Good grief!

Report: Death of Penn student investigated as act of rage.  Umm….aren’t most murders acts of rage?  I musta missed something.

The Latest: Pope begs forgiveness for Chile priest sex abuse.  Doesn’t he have more local issues on topic?

And if all this doesn’t disgust you yet, leave the breakfast table and read this one:

Man sneezes, blows hole in throat.

The Cigarette Smoking Man, perhaps?

Global Warming Strikes East Texas

18F at byte time:  31 for a high today.

A Half-a-Holiday Bitcoin Rant

There is no mail today.  Banks are closed.  The U.S. markets are closed…and what the hell am I doing up?

Well, this is another one of those half holidays we talk about.  Fine time to introduce non-subscribers (to our Peoplenomics newsletter) to some sharper thinking than appears in the mainstream.

Were it not for the pending winter storm (tonight in Texas) and a few headlines, you’d have been spared this morning’s report.  But, such is not the case.  You need to be lectured, again.

(Continues below)

 

Let’s start with macro-econ: there are two interesting things we’re watching.

One is the price of Gold which has quietly moved up into the $1,340 range, and silver has firmed nicely over $17-bucks, too.  So that’s one.  (Toss in oil prices firming, too…)

The second is the Bitcoin – which is always a source of amusement.

Since people come here mainly for our unorthodox views of the world, let’s not disappoint them.  Here’s what we think of Bitcoin right now:

This looks hopelessly confusing to people who don’t bother to try understanding charts – and are then shocked when events come along “out of the blue.”

So a “teaching moment” while we run through the chart lines:

You will see there is a level line off to the right from the tippy-top of the Bitcoin run-up.  The reason we extend this line is it becomes (in the world of technical analysis) “overhead resistance.”

One strategy for making money holds that when something breaks above overhead resistance, a good bullish move is unfolding.  Often so.

There is a small asterisk to this:  That is, if the move above resistance is more than momentary.

Depending on who you talk to, “momentary” can be a few minutes.  Others will wait for a daily close over resistance.  More will demand a weekly close above.  There are even old-timers who (not running on internet time) will hold out for a monthly breakout above resistance.  Quarterly?  Just how slow do you want to play?

The horizontal line is also copied to the lowest point since the present decline began and is called “support.”

If this line is broken to the downside, and the break is more than momentary (*see previous discussion), then it’s time to unload and either go short or flipped into cash.

Trend Channel Lines

The two downward blue lines represents “trend channel” in technical analysis.  Two ways to construct them.

Method One (used by grown-up mathophiles) involves data downloads and calculation of a 2-standard deviation trend channel. This verges on work…which we can’t stand.

The preferred Method Two (because it’s simple, graphical, and fast) is to draw lines with whatever’s handy, eyeballing it.  Choice?  A ruler, graphics tool (we use CorelDraw), or even putting PostIts on the screen.  (I still do this now and then…talk about lazy…  )

Here’s the process to draw the lines:

Draw your first line from the tippy-top all-time high to the top of the first significant bounce.  Extend this line a good bit to the right.  That’s the top of the trend channel if things are going down.

Copy it and paste it.  This ensures that the line will have the same angle as the source.

Move it with the object tool to the lowest point between the tippy-top high and the Big Bounce high.  Again, it extends down to the right.

As long as Bitcoin is trading in this range, we are in the “academic learning mode.”  Since we have no money on the table (in this fool’s techno-folly) we are ONLY interested in seeing how the breakout happens.

This brings us to the two dashed lines.  The black one tells us the general direction things could be heading if we get an upside breakout.

SOME traders will buy when the upper trend line is crossed.  Even if overhead resistance isn’t eventually crossed, you can still make lunch money, on quick trades.  Black dashed line is the bullish dream.

The red dashed line is the bearish case.

This visually looks like the most likely outcome at the moment.  The going short or into cash to avoid carnage happens when Bitcoins – while staying in or below the trend channel – bust through the support line.

That’s when our Elliott Wave estimator tool which we have on the Master Index page of Peoplenomics.com gets fired up.

You put in an approximation of the all-time high, and then you put in the bottom of that first significant low.

From there, this lazy person’s thinking tool spits out how bad things could ultimately get.  With the Wave 1 down “in the bag” and with our Wave 2 expectations set by the brainamp.xls spreadsheet in the $16,279 range, we would not be surprised to see the Bitcoin breakdown to new lows in short order.

Still, hype springs Eternal in the hearts of men…so no telling what will really happen.

One can go back to the study of Tulip Mania and note that the first real price runs of that Fad Attack were tulips of a particular kind.  Just as the only true first crypto was Bitcoin.  Lead tulip.

Then, miraculously, just as the ancient Wave 1 down was put in, along came the clones.  Whether it was the red & white tulips, or  yellow, (fill in any crypto name but not Bitcoin) and you’ll see how these manias work.

Now that you understand how the chart works, consider how Darwin’s Origins of Species is a “template”  that explains technological species replacement as new cryptos come out of the woodwork, w

We’ve be content to stand aside and keep a sharp eye out for potential Darwinian predators, not the least of which is governments.  These, as an article of faith, won’t give up their lock on “what is money” without a fight – nor without legislation.

We are not alone in our skepticism toward Bitcoin.  Forbes seems to have the same technical view we hold as evidenced in Bitcoin Is Headed Lower – For Now.

Laughably, the big Miami Bitcoin Conference had to stop accepting Bitcoin because of fees and congestion.

If this technology is going to take over the world, it will need government behind it.

But wouldn’t it be a great world IF the illegal surveillance of Americans stopped and that big Secret Agencies spy center (the castle and moat) up in Provo, Utah could be repurposed to create crypto transaction?

That’s the level of infrastructure we see as necessary and for now, the trend channel says that a long-shot bet.

It’s the same scaling problem Fortune refers to here.

We hold that if scaling doesn’t kill it, regulators will as Bitcoin Halts Week-Long Slide But Battles With Regulatory Pressure.

Shills are everywhere – and what they have going for them is a virtual country full of politically-correct gullible idiots – so we will continue to hide-out in the Outback of East Texas waiting for an outbreak of reason and common sense.

Could be a long wait, but these sideshows are priceless.

Baked Apple?

House lawmakers demand answers from Apple on throttling older phones.

Social Media Ruination

Australian dictionary picks “Milkshake duck” as word for 2017.

Dreams of Wind Ranchers

Legendary U.S. investor Boone Pickens closes energy hedge fund after setbacks.

Unthunk Zero’s

We’re finally beginning to wrap our arms (belatedly) around grunge and such.

The epiphany came on reading Inside the new ‘anti-gorgeous’ hotel.

Here’s how the young are rolling:  They ALL want more money, but they don’t want as many upscale ways to spend it.

Thus, with money piling up, they believe this to be responsible capitalism and a new miracle form mof capitalism.

I’m  going to take some pills now and go back to pillow-testing.

Let me know if the planet formerly known as Earth reappears.

Peoplenomics Server Maintenance

From our server team:

A number of serious security vulnerabilities affecting multiple CPU architectures were recently disclosed by Google’s Project Zero team as outlined in our support annoucement on Jan 4. In order to address the disclosed vulnerabilities, the physical hardware on which your website resides will need to undergo maintenance. This maintenance specifically patches the Meltdown vulnerability; the Spectre vulnerability will be addressed in a future maintenance cycle. We will inform you of these maintenance cycles via additional communications.

The maintence begins at:
Jan 13th 2018 – 11:00PM EST

During the maintenance window, Peoplenomics.com will be cleanly shut down and will be unavailable while we perform the updates. A two-hour window is allocated, however the actual downtime should be much less. After the maintenance has concluded, the server will be brought back online.

We regret the short notice and the downtime required for this maintenance. However, due to the severity of these vulnerabilities, we have no choice but to take swift and immediate action to ensure the safety and security of our customers. For these reasons, we must adhere to a strict timetable, and will not be able to reschedule or defer this maintenance.

They will have it up shortly.

Ah, the joys of high-reliability computing…

The Trumpstorm and Terraforming

As always in Peoplenomics, we are not whiners – we deal in solutions.  In fact, turning lemons into lemonade is our stock-in-trade.

This week, what the pseudo-media was screaming about (the Trumpstorm) is actually a marvelous opportunity to move in the direction of making America great, again.  But, you need to grok terms like neocolonial business models to see it.  When you do, Trump’s candor is distinctly anti-racist contrary to the MSM pitch.

We explain – after headlines and the charts…

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