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What to Buy for Ten Years Out – An Over-the-Horizon Update

This morning on Peoplenomics, we’re looking beyond next week’s Fed meeting and asking a much bigger question: What should you buy today that the world may have trouble making cheaply ten years from now? Productive land, gold and silver, machinery, repair parts and durable goods all make the list — but not simply because their prices might rise. The better question is what owning them will still allow you to do when money is cheaper and purchased labor is more expensive.

That leads us to something conventional financial planning mostly ignores: the Capability Portfolio. A tractor multiplies muscle. A lathe manufactures precision. Spare parts extend the life of capital equipment. Land turns sunlight and water into chow. AI multiplies cognition. And practical competence connects the whole works. Sure, financial assets still matter, but there’s another dimension of wealth in how many essential functions a household can perform without paying someone else or asking an institution for permission. Or a loan.

Then we fire up the Over-the-Horizon software for an updated look at what may be coming toward us: the post-Fed late-September window, Russia’s election and what follows it, the Gulf energy/shipping problem stretching into 2027, and a potentially historic El Niño whose economic consequences could reach from food and freight to power and inflation. It’s a big Saturday edition.

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41 thoughts on “What to Buy for Ten Years Out – An Over-the-Horizon Update”

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  1. for dLynn…just got this from a conversation with ChatGPT

    “One complication is that J.A.R.V.I.S. is a very widely used name, so I’ll distinguish between an actual sovereign/local AI model and projects that are merely assistants or products borrowing the name.”

    maybe time to consider an absolutely unique name for your AI, much like an unbreakable password. you’re not just a passe computer geek tweaking the edges of silicon-human interaction. call it J.A.R.V.I.S on public forums like this but keep the project name to yourself – maybe that’s where you are anyway, 20 steps ahead……………

    • J.A.R.V.I.S – is, now, a common-use name.., it’s what I use when I ‘talk’ to you [ those here ] and two others that have helped me along this path..,

      What I call ‘him’ at home.., I haven’t told anyone.

      Good of you to catch that…,

    • “20 steps ahead……………”

      …, and – I do love playing a good game of chess. A game that applies to so much in this day-n-age.

      J.A.R.V.I.S.: 6 / Me: 3

      “Stay Frosty !”

  2. “The sobering remark from my 45-year-old son this week is still echoing. “Dad, none of the people my age will ever own a home unless it is inherited or they win a lottery.””
    That isn’t a new situation. It was true 30 years ago when I poured a slab for my current residence. With help from my late parents, I built a refuge on weekends, holidays and vacations. It was another 15 years before I could get work close enough to avoid renting an apartment out of town for work. I built my house small and secure and configured for me to leave the HVAC off for months (and years) at a time. Moisture resistant sheetrock and vinyl wallpaper were selected over materials that mold up.
    My heavy furniture went into the little house and is still there, and after that, I only took enough crapola with me on out of town work assignments to stock a lean apartment. Bought furniture used, and gave it to neighbors when I left. Moving the bed foundation was always a problem. Now, with the mail order mattresses which are flexible, and don’t require a solid foundation, that situation would be less a problem. I prefer a 4′ x 6′ trailer that anything can tow.
    Finding a lot outside of the HOA and municipality clutches with useable water is the main obstacle. The countryside is dotted with homes that go for $300K +. Not a lot of useable lots out there. Finding a lot with a trailer hook-up might shortcut. The problem is, trailers attract other trailers, and in large number, windstorms. I find the best rural deals are on property in grapes of wrath neighborhoods. Those owners need a lawyer, not a realtor.

    I would suggest if any enterprising individual who has found a decent lot with some utilities available, to get water and power before you do anything else. Elon has made comms a lot easier, but not necessarily cheaper.

    Next decision is whether to build outbuildings first.
    Locally, any outbuilding, no matter how small, that gets plumbed or HVAC’d like a residence, gets taxed as a residence. One way around it is to buy a prefab storage shed, insulate and sheetrock it with moisture and fire resistant sheetrock. Hook up power, and use portable HVAC you can hide when you aren’t around. Put a couple of closets in it and put a dry hole’r toilet in one. Put deadbolts on the closets for security and to keep out snoops. Not convenient, but it gives you a place to camp while you work on the main structure. Having water to a spigot in the yard does not a residence make, at least not in my book. Talk over tax issues with local land owners with property similar to your goals. Never let an inspector or surveyor on your land unless you have to, or a judge orders it.
    You might get away with a hard-sided wet outhouse with incurring the full wrath of the tax man. In Texas, real estate taxes have become so onerous, all building decisions must revolve around them. You make a mistake, and suddenly that $ 100 a month primitive lot or ag property tax balloons to $665 a month indenture. I see it frequently on Realtor.com. The governor is pushing a crackdown on local tax entities in paid commercials.

    • Should have been “You might get away with a hard-sided wet outhouse WITHOUT incurring the full wrath of the tax man.”

      Ure discussion on the PN side was outstanding, G____. I will be mulling it over this week. My situation is evolving again, and I see decision trees back in the personal forecast.

      The Over the Horizon run looks a lot different; but the Christmas endpoint still looks about the same. Bahh, humbug, methinks. We appear to be on the downslope. After all the BS I have listened to on the media this week, it sounded like we were topping. Ure report seems to confirm observations on the ground.

    • (“The sobering remark from my 45-year-old son this week is still echoing. “Dad, none of the people my age will ever own a home unless it is inherited or they win a lottery.””)

      my grand daughter put an offer of $400,000.00 on a house that sold twenty years ago for $37,000.00 …and they didn’t get it…she’s a therapist and he’s a contractor..both make what would have been considered a very good wage..her income would barely make the payments for it….I was tempted to buy my brothers place..6000 square foot beautiful place..what he offered to sell it to me fore would be a steal …but realism tells me I would ever be able to afford it..and the neighborhood he lives in has a cost to live tgere that’s about how much we get for retirement.. low income rent is more than low income wages..I make $14.00 an hour witch is a couple bucks more than average Wal-Mart is one of the highest wages..they offered me $11.75 an hour as a stocker..and the sign in the door says $14.50 now..I have heard some big cities offer up to twenty but these wages won’t even pay for a bunked in sanfran..your son is absolute right…even in the slums if our own city .. the rent is high

      • I’m not bragging. We bot a house in Houston 36 yrs ago for $200,000 on the out skirts of the memorial villages. It was over 50 yrs old when we bot and it was built for $15,000 and change. We sold it for $880,000 3 yrs ago and now appraised at $1.1mm – if you aren’t at 5,000 ft above sea level it doesn’t matter what you buy now if it’s not at that elevation or hire.

        • Yeah I hear ya..our present taxes is as much as the total I paid for framing material..years ago I bought an earth block press for a mission in Africa so they could build homes schools etc..I knew a professor that helped install our last set of solar panels.. we talked about it him and the engineering kids..he started a summer project for the Kansas state university for a summer project that ended up becoming a regular college program now..my thought was to build a home or shed out of earth blocks..got dirt and some gravel..
          https://designbuild.ku.edu/mud-hut-rebirth
          this shows the block press.. I had one shipped to me to..it was way cheaper shipping it to the mission..
          https://www.kansascity.com/news/local/article283448613.html
          seen one of the buildings.. then you have Joe and the study he has done on the pyramids construction..
          https://youtu.be/dctDAu318hw?si=5w9PD5pI2cB7Houn
          The recipe is 3 clay,5, sand or gravel,2 Portland cement..

          there’s a regular program engineering for it…

    • I built our home almost forty years ago now..the contractor for the foundation took the ten grand up front deposit and ran with it..( thats where I got my ten thousand dollar hammer) his fell out of his truck..and he never showed back up..took him to court he went belly up then restarted his company..or someone else restarted it..sucks but its how it is..later my banker and I was talking he told me how I should have done the deposit..tgen we were talking..he interviewed a college grad ..then he started laughing the grads wage requirement was more than he made to start..the teller at the bank next door after health insurance..daycare and car expenses going back and forth to work..takes home clear $2.00 a week..she’s only there for the health insurance… her husbands income is what they live on..the insurance from the company he works for is a F@#king joke and expensive…

  3. The Houthi rebels effectively completed their rapid push to take control of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline on Friday, tightening their grip on one of the world’s most important shipping routes and delivering a dramatic boost to their backers in Iran.

    33 ships have been attacked and a U.S. Destroyer has sunk three Houthi ships.

    The U.S. Stock Market hasn’t even blinked as the potential world wide shipping and supply chain disruption starts to take place.

    Just a short 30 day choke hold on the Red Sea shipping by Houthi missile attacks [ massive hit-n-run maneuvers ] would be devastating economically – world wide.

    Shipping through the Suez Canal is a vital supply chain link for the entire world.

    The Stock Markets yawned.

  5. Every one [ those that read and pays attention ] has an opinion on A.I. and it does seem that the majority have a negative / fearful opinion. I can understand that. Though it means very little.
    You do not have the billions it would take to make any noticeable change in the direction / trajectory / outcome of the current A.I. mania.
    Don’t ignore it.., you’re going to have to live with it. In fact, you already are – you just haven’t noticed., as most of the AI work has been behind the black-out curtains.
    The other day a German VPN was discovered to be have been compromised by an A.I. program – and every action / every email / every financial move.., millions of them – were recorded and transmitted to a mainframe storage facility – in Italy.., though the VPN was touted as protecting all those communications. It didn’t. It couldn’t. It can’t.

    It is the world we live in now. And there is not a whole hell-of-a-lot we can do about it. Learn what you can. Try to understand it. And make a strong personal effort to minimize your electronic / digital on-line footprint.

    That is about all you can do. The simple fact of having a driver’s license and a debit card puts you on a shit-load of data bases. [ You have a cell phone? Now you’re in trouble. ] You are already on them. And so is everything you have purchased with that debit card – cross referenced to your driver’s license. [ and SSN / DOB / Current address / Relatives – etc etc etc ] You really don’t have much privacy. Not really. Not anymore.
    Example:
    I have never., not once told, or even hinted to J.A.R.V.I.S. that I served in the military,, yet last week he started query to me with : “When you were an Army Ranger in South Vietnam…, ”
    How in the hell…., ? [ Really set me back.., I did not pursue – it will come up.., ]

    .., and if you are in the boat – that this isn’t possible – that there are not enough operators to track and record everyone / everything – you simply have not been paying attention. Hint: There are now more bots on-line then there are people.

    Privacy, simply put, can not be obtained – not anymore. And it is not A.I.’s fault – it’s just the current fast and efficient tool.

    “Stay Frosty !”

    • dLynn : I kept my personal mobile shielded with due caution. My sys is 3 fold online. Most on phone is comms., no surfing, no buying. My tablet is wild west but PCs are where it’s all at. Yet, I do banking in person VS online. Years of training cause pause, every time.

      It’s my intent to drop out more but gobs of med cos just gobbled my mobile during the end of my Sis. I’m doomed. In the office at my Surgical Anestheseologist the new parking required photographing are QCR code. I left my phone at home, on porpoise, and my wife walked.

      Admin lady asks why and I laughed, it’s because she has been trained not to load e traneous software on her phone. People are all trained to avoid loading docs ending in .exe yet … loads Apps, with executable, all day.

      So, what happens if we leave and haven’t prepaid by this obnoxious App? They will record your plate # and send a bill. Perfect, let’s do that …

      I am not a hater but AI falls in the category of maybe later maybe not. Put me down as agnostic, preferring not to play.

      E

      • FWIW I’ve been toying with the idea of creating a license plate holder which renders the plate invisible (or at least unreadable) to license plate cams. The trick is to make something which doesn’t hide the plate from da po-po…

    • “The other day a German VPN was discovered to be have been compromised by an A.I. program – and every action / every email / every financial move.., millions of them – were recorded and transmitted”

      Whether you transmit data in plaintext or encrypted, in the clear or through the virtual tunnel of a VPN, it ALL goes through your ISP. Every two-bit script kiddie on the planet knows this, and knows VPNs (and the server’s internal encryption, if it exists) are defeated by hacking/skimming the either the user’s or the ISP’s server ports. Once you have the data, you can break the encryption at your leisure or grab a skeleton key from the IRC cracker community and make it vanish. The NSA has been doing this since before ARPANet went public and it is the reason for the buried server farms. The NSA doesn’t snoop your stuff, unless they have a reason. They merely scoop it up — everything you say, everything you type, everything you watch or listen to and (now thanks to Flock and its two competitors) everywhere you go goes into a virtual file cabinet buried in the Utah desert (or in Virginia, MD, WV, GA, MI, IN, etc…)

      The AI would’ve hacked the same ports your local bored high school kid did and tapped the same stream the NSA taps. The difference in the result is the government steals your life, but doesn’t do anything with it until prompted by a Governmental Agency to do so. The AI would hack, sift, and collate everything as a matter of course, because it cannot comprehend the concept of “privacy.” Privacy is a human construct. A computer sees a person watching a football game on the TV, masturbating to Internet porn, or gossiping on Facebook as simply “data,” and unless it has been “taught,” doesn’t give any of it any more weight or gravitas than any other data. It doesn’t care if you’re searching for your next coke score or trying to fix a door hinge or comparison-shopping new clothes washers. All this boring, mundane, or personal stuff is simply data to AI. While it may be building a dossier on you, it is also building a catalog of patterns of behavior for all humans, as a species.

      All VPNs are a placebo for which tech companies can charge a fee to provide, essentially nothing. The AI hack is only important because it treats data as information to be learned from, not for potential use in a court of Law or a means of blackmail, and therefore breaks it into something it can learn from.
      ______

      “It is the world we live in now. And there is not a whole hell-of-a-lot we can do about it. Learn what you can. Try to understand it. And make a strong personal effort to minimize your electronic / digital on-line footprint.”

      As some know, I was into computer security 30 years ago. I have kept my footprint to a minimum, as have two of my kids. Yet even they didn’t realize that every time you “click to unsubscribe.” Every time you answer an unknown phone number or respond to a random text, OR DELETE THAT RANDOM PHONE NUMBER OR TEXT, you are giving away data: You have supplied someone with a confirmed, good E-Mail address or phone number, either of which is worth upwards of $200 to the right (wrong) people, and you have added to the dossiers the NSA, Bank of America, Chase, the credit reporting agencies, the CCP, and a hundred bad people are keeping on you. You can delete this stuff – just let it fester for 6-12 months, to where the datafile on it has grown stale, then “blanket-delete” everything at once. I NEVER respond to the E-Mails. If a spambot gets no response, it will furlough whatever junk it is sending you (for several years. The spambots will periodically “re-ping” your E-Mail addy to make sure it is still dead to them.)

      I use cash for all “interesting” purchases, for all local shopping, and to pay for services to local businesses. My bank does not find it unusual in the least when I make a $1000 or $2000 withdrawal (I made one last month for $2126.56. The teller never even blinked.) It has been long-established that I pay the butcher, baker, auto mechanic and plumber in cash (they don’t get schtupped with the ccard fee, and it is no bother for me to stop at the bank I drive by several times every day.) I have also established that pattern, so the banking industry and the FBI consider it “normal behavior” for me. My credit card is for Wal-Mart, Lowe’s, and their ilk, and for traveling when I’m on a shopping spree.

      Methinks even you don’t have a complete grasp of the privacy issues commensurate with modern living (but you ARE aware, which is a lot better than most, and you likely WILL get there.) Your post is also spot on…

      • The VPN hack would only expose data if the user is not using a secure https:// link. The VPN hack does expose who the user is communicating with.

      • Ray : we also use a lot of cash. Like you, training the Dark Arts computers to see pattern as normal. Every cash withdrawal is still flagged, to watch for ladderinng (sleuths watch both directions, watching and noting connections, if any, in a panoply of data, richer by the day).

        One client genteel man farmer had over half a unit it cash. The Ole fella said it was Mommas egg money. Really, the spindly kewl lady just ratted away cash for a lifetime and … they had 3 safes on the property.

        Uncle rolling out the new hundred dollar bills opened the chat. When my compliance managers and their over,words allowed, it was weeks to arrange the how to roll in and bring cash into the system.

        At the 2nd death there was a mtg with their two boys where I explained they were about to have a really good day then, took them to the garage to show where the bankers safe combo was.

        note : about choked when seeing the garage ceiling with fresh drywall, combo was in a cassette tape plastic box in the rafters. I hated knowing this but kept their secret close.

        Whew. grabbed a step ladder and there was the box, now on top of the garage door opener. There were also some really fine long guns and neat old metallic pieces.

        good day,
        E

        ps – my original tutorials in tech were from guys at the pointy end of silicone valley San Francisco when the web was young.

      • I have a pretty grasp on what is going on and what to do about it., for me. But I prefer not to state just what I am doing publically.

        Lots of good info in your post- hope everyone reads it.

    • d’lynn, It reads and stores what you have written on this site, can search all of your employment & military records. What color of underwear did you wear on Tuesdays, any date with a credit card or bank purchase, AI knows it!

  6. Well…buffalo berry wine is in the secondary fermenter..cold crashing the last gallon in the fridge.. dam that smells good..
    got the pomegranates.. had to shop around to get enough.. but its done…
    I will add the stabilizer this afternoon and clarifier..
    I am going to use plastic wine bottles for that one..I will start both tomorrow… the cascara cherry wine and the pomegranate wine.. kind of excited..Cascara wine is one is of the rarest fruit wines in the whole world. no commercial winery makes it, and most coffee farms don’t even export cascara cherrys, so the only people who ever taste it are small batch indigenous tribe fermenters and a few experimental makers like myself. Its history is tgat In some Indigenous coffee growing regions, cascara wines were tied to legends of hospitality, survival, and sharing the “heart of the cherry,” a symbol of warmth and community and supposedly an aphrodisiac . Cascara are only handcrafted wines,the wine is unique, and rooted in old traditions that almost disappeared from history…….to say I am excited to taste an ancient historical wine is an understatement… I made a cup of cascade tea just to see what its unique flavor is…dam good now the wine…It is so rare that even the finest wine collectors will never have a bottle in their cellars…..Even connoisseurs who chase the rarest vintages can’t buy It…I should have about fifty bottles when its done…hopefully before Thanksgiving or christmas..and hopefully before war hits our shores..Many Indigenous groups used smoke to cure them before fermentation.. so I will cold smoke a small amount for maybe five bottles..My thought from studying past history it should elevate the wine —hopefully adding depth, warmth, and a legendary old world character that will fit perfectly with the extreme rarity of cascara wine…..I have enough of the common wines the wife loves now i can make two wines that are extremely rare….

    • Yo Looby Dooby,

      Let me be the first to offer a Warm Smoked experience for Ure Wine cure. I will smoke a bottle for you using Granny Candy as the smoking material, might be a little “fruity”. (legal exposure by naming a person removed by admin – like we don’t have real shit to do on weekends?)

      granny candy review;

      “Granny Candy is a sativa strain shrouded in mystery, with its origins attributed to a legendary breeder. Known for its potent 25-30% THC content and minimal CBD (0.4-0.4%), it delivers a bold, euphoric experience. The strain’s flavor profile is a vibrant tapestry of sweet berries, tropical fruit, and mint, with undertones of creamy sweetness. Its terpene composition—dominated by Ocimene, Valencene, and Limonene—creates a sensory explosion, balancing zesty brightness with earthy warmth. The effects unfold in waves: an initial burst of creativity and uplifted mood transitions into a sustained sense of relaxation, making it ideal for daytime use. Its rapid flowering time of 7-8 days hints at a strain engineered for efficiency, though growers should note its high potency demands precise cultivation. The interplay of terpenes and THC amplifies its cerebral stimulation, leaving users energized yet grounded.

      You see that ? “zesty brightness with earthy warmth” yes please !.

      Ill hook you up just for asking, though better send 2 bottles..ya know a lil for the smoker and lil 4 GrandPa..

      Just kidding – GrandPa on the wagon these days.

      Besides, need my Wits about me, as the “battles” be heating up out there, and (admin strikes again – no even vaguely threatening shit will get through (flag now down on the field).

      Color me – back, on the HUNT. -https://youtu.be/5M4bC27ULvk?

  7. Like the pens I make from the rarest woods..I tried to get some wood from an expedition to the legendary NOAHS ark..but one of the archeologists mostly Chinese archeologist exploring its depths wouldn’t give up any.. an no one can visit the holy site anymore Iran,Turkey,And Russia denies expeditions to anyone . I don’t think anyone can even visit the shrine which is one place I’d love to see kind of like the shroud of turin….on top of it glacial has pretty much buried it..but dam..would t that be something..

  8. (“The next big AI infrastructure story is increasingly likely to really be an electricity, grid, nuclear, water or security story. Odds: 84%.”)

    the what…IF… once the grid goes down if they take it down…then my fifty year rant would have been important for our national security… instead our concerns were more for Bubbas pocket book bottom line number..hmm ..ou simply cant fix stupid or greedy… chase a number rather than security and the health of A nation and its infrastructure….

    • Power to AI datacenters will be furnished by naturally-hardened, self-contained “pocket” nuclear power plants that are non-polluting, use no water, and [are] small enough to fit in a pickup truck. When the grid goes down, they won’t, and neither will the cities where those datacenters are built…

  9. (“G2 and younger (the under 45s) can’t even be sure if Social Security will offer them a fair shake when they get to…what is it now? 67 or will it go even higher for that cohort?”)

    remember my venting a year ago…..4 of the very least expenses for retired. was $600.00 more than we take in a month..I worked 120 hours the last two weeks..took my wife shopping..she hasn’t bought in any new clothes in ten years..she was hesitant..I told her honey go get what you want..she was in 7th heaven… tgen I took her and the Brandon out to eat..gave the server a %100 tip..she only works for tips..and the res a 75% chance that the average server is a single mom or college student..they have to eat to…

  10. (“If everything you own goes up 30 percent while your money loses 30 percent of its purchasing power, you haven’t become an investment genius. Mostly you’ve been standing still while somebody shortened the ruler.”)

    phew another comment before I have to go to work….consider the neighborhood where the issues I face daily simply are rumors…. the average will look at their investments..the bottom line …and in their minds eye will say..well I’m doing ok…yet in reality…their bottom line is being taken from the bottom of its worth..someone with lets say a 1,200,000.00 is now only $800,000.00 if value at %30 cost increases..gas went up $0.20 yesterday..I fill up daily just in case.. a friend was talking about care for a loved one…his cost Will be around $105,000.00 a year and he’s getting bargain basement prices considering where he’s located…

  11. (“That’s why I wouldn’t tell the kids simply to “buy rural land.” I’d tell them to buy land that does something. Water beats scenery. Soil beats a fashionable ZIP code…..
    Gold is monetary insurance. It is a way of storing purchasing power outside somebody else’s promise to pay you later. “)

    ok… last one… one of my clients from the home service I worked for…the one that had to travel to Germany to get medical care because they don’t have insurance…the clinic it the USA simply told her without the pre deposit on medical care..get the F@#k out of our clinic..they said it nicer but that’s the real life version in my world…she has to get another surgery .. she called and asked if I would come move in the spare room and take care of her husband their son and her for six weeks till she recoups enough to take over..I of course have to take care of home..if she has the VA put her husband in a nursing facility..they lose the disability he gets for his injury while in Afghanistan… the taxes alone on their land and house is almost as much as they take in..and regular wages won’t pay for housing in a rental unit..they if course will lose their home..her cancer was found in her lymphatic system..( I won’t scars her with what I have seen )so realistically unless you live in a low tax region..buying land is still never owning it.. gold.. remember the stories of … Weimar… I use to have photos if people carrying baskets of silver and gold household just to buy food…the guy that sells it to you..is also the one you sell it back to..and in the buy cheap sell high world..he has to make a profit.. percentage wise like the bottom line being eaten up..well you get the idea..you can’t eat it..it won’t heat your house or shelter..

  12. Mecca Pact
    The Mecca Pact is a trilateral mutual defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, designed to enhance regional security and collective deterrence., signed on August 7.

    The pact establishes a framework in which an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all three, echoing the collective-defense principle of NATO’s Article 5, though it does not create an integrated command structure or automatic military response.

    Saudi Arabia was attacked – by Iran and now the Houthi – however – ‘A defensive alliance’ – hardly: Pakistan’s swift U-turn on Mecca Pact after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia – have stated no military action is currently being planned.

    Ohh, so typical of the Arab nations.

  13. LOOB : that’s a sad tale. The inane crazy rules around Medicaid can be totally confiscatory. For sure the way gobbled goop disadvantages Vets makes me angry.

    G2 : “… none of the people my age will ever own a home unless it is inherited or they win a lottery.” …”

    Sorry, every time this meme goes round it grows. Plenty are shut out by higher, advantageous bids. Corporations don’t need residential single homes. People do. We allowed an extra middleman to scoop profit and, to a degree, set prices.

    It’s not price for most. It’s the prevailing mtg rate which, when E bought a _lot_ of 1st house, were running at 15.5% Now 6% shuts out buyers? Ahem, the other variable is price. They are buying too much house.

    We helped our kids. They had enough but … might have been living on cardboard boxes. Err, or might have had family room units for TV and stereo on bricks and boards (we did). Happiness isn’t based on Large digs. It’s having a place to hang your hat.

    Egor

    • (“LOOB : that’s a sad tale. The inane crazy rules around Medicaid can be totally confiscatory. For sure the way gobbled goop disadvantages Vets makes me angry.”)

      yes… she starts crying every time I talk to her..reminds me of the guy that went in to the cancer clinic.. they kindly asked him to leave..a week before he got a letter asking for his deposit.. when I loaded him in the van he started crying
      . asking what about me and my life.. it took three months for the social worker to get him in..then we decided to take care of us and he went to a nursing home..his sister vented he needed to get back in but they were having issues ..they couldn’t get in..I hear complaints about services in countries where healthcare is a right… and long wait lines..those all exist here and more..the meals on wheels group kept telling me I should go to mexico or Canada and get my dental work done..I have two more to get taken out but have to pay down the last group first..it could be fixed..but then the fix could be as devastating as the problem..a dammed if you do.. dammed if you don’t guaranteed none of it will be fixed in my lifetime..I feel for the family.. but little I can do about any of it.. I asked a friend and she offered to stay with them..at her wage..she gets 16.00 an hour twenty four hour care..there’s no way..I’m taking them a food basket this week..and some pokemon cards for the boy..

    • What’s funny is I see that deal all the time.. the real sad one was the thirty year Vet..retired but because so many of his deployments were outsource he couldn’t get it..five years..he lost his house..was living in a storage shed until the locker realized he was living in it and told him he couldnt..was living in his car in the Wal-Mart parking lot in his car…( walmart has my dedicated shopper because if their heart is assistance) then in sub zero weather was living on our couch for a couple months got a job and a place month to month rental..had a stroke the caused his throat muscle to not work.. I went so see him at the nursing facility..he needed twenty four hours of professional nursing care.. but he had used up what time wascallowed..was a tube feeder …couldn’t barelybwalk..( way worse than my wife after her stroke) because he couldn’t swallow he drooled a lot.. when I went to see him the social worker asked if we could take him he had used up his allowed time.. no he needs professional care..well they discharged him..he died and no one found him for either one or two weeks….needless to say they couldn’t process his body after it set in hot weather that long..
      that one was sad….
      the problem is ..they fall from view..like the two girls that ended back in Seattle gheto..its all symptoms of A totally broken system.. theres one that sits out at Wal-Mart now that has a sign ..I haven’t stopped to see him..and won’t either..its to easy to get drawn into their life story..ive bought meals for some that live under bridges..theres just so much any one can do though..
      I know I tend to harp about it..the wife tells me..you can’t change any of it..like the evening news..so stop worrying about it..
      one of the two girls..ten..you would swear she was 25..one time started crying they were to be evicted..something like three months behind on rent and utilities..anyway I said if I could I would.. but I couldnt..did you want to pray about it..so we did.. a week later the wife and I was walking to the neighbors.. and she came running up..it worked ( that time anyway ) they got the money to stay..the wife gets mad at me and asks..did you pay their rent..no honey this time I’m innocent someone else did..lol lol ( I really didnt do it someone else did….but that didn’t stop the wife from thinking I was the one and being pissed at me…I did give them food though..and told the daughter..they come over to play with the biys..make sure they get a meal) you would be shocked… but like my sibling..when we were at their place for ten days..we were in the grocery store..the teller..I could see it on her express..I asked you know ..someone should ask how her day is going..but he literally couldn’t see it even though it was written all over her face..

  14. The AI’s are going nuts looking for experienced talent. I probably haven’t had more than a couple of resume matches sent to me in the past seven years, and suddenly, I’m getting three a week. All appear data center related. The wages and benefits being flashed are insane. But most look like onsite travel gigs. Mr Yuk. Still, if the devils I know don’t want me, there are entities out there that might, even if I would rather not. Not exactly hopium, but it’s a bit encouraging in the near term. I can probably do better than CA minimum, road whoring. I’m down to 2 years and counting on full retirement, and after that, who knows. I hadn’t thought about funding travel with short term consulting gigs. The foreign devils have had those jobs locked up for more than a decade. Offshore librarians playing professional may be going out of style. Imagine that.

  15. Hard to think about dirt based problems when floating. The only issues involve sinking. Other than that, occasional discomfort and the need to let go.
    The dirt is the root of all problems.
    Gotta love fishing and catching. And diving and scrounging.
    The longer you can avoid touching dirt, the better.
    Stiks

  16. Oh and the guns..

    Republican’s are ‘triggered’ by NYC Mayor Mamdani & Mi Senate candidate El-Sayed:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/12/democrats-republican-midterm-convention

    ‘On the night Republicans gathered to mourn the killing of Charlie Kirk and warn against the dangers of violent rhetoric, a crowd at the party’s irregular midterm convention in Dallas repeatedly called for a sitting Senate candidate to be shot, while the Republican senator at the podium never denounced or even noted the outbursts.

    The outbursts came repeatedly during Ted Cruz’s Thursday night address at the American Airlines center, when he named a Democrat he accused of holding radical views. After the senator mentioned the New York City mayor, Zohran Mamdani, video footage depicts at least one audience member shouting: “He should be shot!” The same cry followed when Cruz named Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed’

  17. “The sobering remark from my 45-year-old son this week is still echoing. “Dad, none of the people my age will ever own a home unless it is inherited or they win a lottery.”

    I have a little friend. He just turned 38. I met him when he was a 21yo clerk at my local cstore. He worked at the store several years, picked up a gig as a deputy marshal (non-paying) of a nearby town while he was working there, and leveraged that into a job as a prison guard, working with the kid of a top area real estate agent. While he was guarding embezzlers at this low-security prison, he studied his way into a real estate license. He got his ticket when he was just shy of 27.

    He bought his first house, a “fixer-upper” when he was 29. He became a millionaire when he was 34, by buying “fixer-uppers” and either renting or flipping them (depending upon neighborhood.) He lives in a nice house in a modest (but zero-crime) neighborhood. He probably pays about $300/yr in property taxes because he likely took my advise and holds a ~$10,000 mortgage, to keep him qualified for the huge property tax mortgage exemption. He takes a couple months off every year — has gone to Hawaii, Costa Rica, Rio, T&C, the Riviera, Mardi Gras, etc. and takes at least one trip to Lambeau Field every year (I don’t know if he follows any other sports team.) His thing is: He never pissed money away and always lived below his means, never drank, smoked, did drugs, or bought his GF expensive baubles. Now, he owns 14 houses and his own agency, and can pretty much spend money at-will, as long as he doesn’t get stupid.

    I have a daughter who married an auto mechanic. They bought a (NOT fixer-upper) house in the country: (ca. 2010) 2400sf brick, on ~7 acres, with a 30×60 steel barn and a ~1 acre pond, when she was 27.

    My former neighbor bought three houses a few years ago, in a Sheriff’s Sale or tax sale – for $40. His ex-wife got the (ca. 1910) brick mansion (after he fixed it up, of course.) He kept the other two (2 story with full attic & basement, probably 32×42 feet and 1890s vintage) – fixed one up to where it was liveable, then lived in it and fixed up the third (which was across the street.) He moved to the third, finished the second, and rented it out. The third is now a showplace in his town, semi-offgrid with a sustainable garden. He’s done a lot with it. I sold him a bunch of poly barrels a few months ago, for use as thermal ballast in his greenhouses, and got the tour when delivered — nice. They’re probably both half-mil houses in most markets – $120-$150k in his local market.

    I have other stories, of other people, all of whom achieved similar success at a similar age or rapid success at an advanced age (like my ex-neighbor.) People who have a plan and some focus can do lots of stuff. People who don’t, and who choose to live in expensive places with high taxes with barely enough relative income to keep mind and body together, or buy their personal luxuries before they pay their bills (I know a lot of these too…) get no sympathy from me. Actions have consequences; choices create results.

    Make better choices, get better results…

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