Happy? That’s what you have to bring to the party.
Higher? That’s what we laid out in the Peoplenomics ChartPack Saturday:
First is the Moving Average Oscillator – It’s low in range and cleared for higher.
And the other hint? Look at the Bull Golem chart. Slow bulls are where the useful arrow is – but the fast bulls – the black line higher – says to us some “news leakage” is possible when we pull it all together.
Hopeful? Try the Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator just out (it’s less hopeful, sure):
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.04 in August from +0.08 in July. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July, and one category made a negative contribution in August. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.01 in August from –0.01 in July.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to +0.02 in August from +0.04 in July. Thirty-nine of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in August, while 46 made negative contributions. Thirty-four indicators improved from July to August, while 49 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 11 made negative contributions.
(*We hold the Chicago Fed in awe for inventing “negative contributions” as a standard economic oxymoron. We admire the symmetry of giving (contribution) while taking away (negative). It’s such a dee-lightfully pickled phrase!)
And the early futures were up north of 350 points. No, make that up more than 400 now…
The “Hold On”?
Here’s what is happening in the Human Slog: Our Over-the-Horizon software project (complete report on the PN site) said, in part…
“The clean new field does not reconstruct September 24–26 as the main landing zone. Instead, the conventional-data field moves the center of gravity approximately a week later into September 29–October 10, with the machine crest sitting around October 3–6.”
We can all take a breath, chill, watch the Xi visit, and skim headlines.
News Compressor: ON
The high-level consolidated worldview first:
1. Russia/Ukraine: Ukraine’s extraordinary drone assault on Russia—more than 1,000 drones by Russian accounts, roughly 450 directed toward Moscow—damaged Moscow’s refinery and was followed by an explicit Russian promise of intensified retaliation. Add the Ufa refinery/deep-strike activity here rather than repeating it downstairs: the consolidated signal is that the war is moving increasingly toward deep infrastructure and economic targets on both sides. Escalating.
BTW: If BlinkLab (or OTH) needed a single photograph of kinetic + economic + cyber convergence, Moscow supplied it. Come the end of month, this could be the “regenerative cluster that bites” in the lookaheads.
European spy chiefs publicly warned that Moscow is preparing more decisive action against NATO, after repeated stray-drone incursions into neighbors including Moldova. Warning language hardening.
2. Gulf/Energy: The Saudi-Houthi escalation is now merging with the physical energy/logistics story: Riyadh was targeted, Hormuz vessel traffic has fallen sharply, and Saudi crude movements through Yanbu have been disrupted following attacks on the East-West pipeline. Bangladesh’s 17.4% diesel increase belongs here too because it demonstrates the transmission mechanism BlinkLab has been watching: attack ? shipping constraint ? fuel cost ? production/consumer inflation. Escalating and spreading economically.
3. China/U.S.: New York negotiations ahead of Thursday’s Trump-Xi summit are pulling tariffs, rare earths, technology and AI into a common negotiating framework. The important movement isn’t merely another diplomatic meeting; previously separate economic and strategic files are increasingly being bargained as one package. Moving toward managed negotiation.
4. AI/Cyber: The OpenAI penetration exercise and the newer Astra capability evidence belong together rather than appearing as separate stories. The common signal is that AI is sharply compressing the labor and time required to discover, combine and exploit software vulnerabilities—meaning defensive productivity is rising, but the same economics potentially lowers the cost of offensive cyber operations. Capability accelerating.
Inside Pages/Downstairs
Japan faces Typhoon Dujuan today. More than 300 mm of rain has fallen in some Izu Island locations, with the highest landslide warning issued for Oshima. Immediate disaster risk rising.
North Korea has formally doubled down on nuclear permanence. Pyongyang called its nuclear status “irreversible” following an IAEA rebuke while Kim Jong Un emphasized military modernization. Holding hard.
South Korea’s $350 billion U.S. investment package is meeting domestic resistance. Parliamentary critics are questioning financial exposure in American energy and nuclear projects while implementation of the broader trade agreement remains unfinished. Trade friction emerging below the headline deal.
Seoul is simultaneously widening its diplomatic calendar. President Lee Jae Myung is headed to the UN General Assembly and then Mexico, with possible U.S. talks focused partly on that investment package. Diplomatic activity increasing.
Greenland security is moving toward a NATO framework. Denmark says an expected Denmark-Greenland-U.S. agreement will make Arctic security a broader NATO responsibility while respecting Greenlandic sovereignty. Institutionalizing.
Ethiopia has acquired another dangerous political-military alignment. Seven armed groups announced an alliance aimed at replacing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. Newly emerging and potentially destabilizing.
Western Ethiopia also recorded fresh civilian casualties. Doctors Without Borders says violence in Gambella sent 88 casualties to its facility and left at least 12 dead. Escalating locally.
Gaza’s reconstruction vacuum continues producing casualties even without major combat. Twenty-one people died when a previously bomb-damaged building collapsed, illustrating the secondary hazard from structurally compromised housing. Chronic humanitarian risk continuing.
World leaders convene for UNGA high-level week; Guterres opens his last session as secretary-general with wars, AI risk and climate shocks on the docket. Trump and Macron speak Tuesday. Diplomatic theater, low breakthrough odds.
Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Afghanistan that Kabul said killed three, over alleged militant safe havens. Border friction reopening.
Italy’s Meloni said she will move to ban burqas and niqabs in schools and cap foreign students per classroom. Migration politics hardening in Europe.
The U.S. food-safety sweep has two notable active threads. An E. coli investigation tied to organic frozen blueberries had 17 cases and six hospitalizations, while a separate organic-egg Salmonella outbreak has produced 23 illnesses and seven hospitalizations. Contained but active.
Around the Ranch: Fall Agenda
Fall begins tomorrow. Here’s the “real deal.”
Astronomical fall does not click over until tomorrow night — Tuesday, Sept 22, 7:05 p.m. CDT (00:05 UTC on the 23rd). Meteorological fall already started Sept 1, so we are living in the overlap: the calendar says autumn, the sky is still finishing summer. Then we have Daylight Madness Time next month. (Sun. Nov. 1 at 2 AM.)
Four oddball bits to crunch.
1. Equal day is a lie, and late.
The equinox is when the Sun sits on the celestial equator, not when your driveway gets 12 hours of light. Atmosphere bends sunlight over the horizon, so true equilux (equal light) hits a few days after the equinox. Here in East Texas that is closer to Friday–Saturday this week. You will still have a sliver more day than night on “the first day of fall.” The universe does not honor the press release. Which fits with the Sun not issuing them.
2. The harvest moon is a scheduling error.
The harvest moon is just the full moon nearest the equinox. Farmers used it because it rises near sunset for several nights and you could shock corn without a lantern. In 2026 that full moon is not sitting politely on the 22nd — it is offset, which is why some years the “harvest” light shows up before the official season and some years after. The name is agricultural, not astronomical.
3. Your house is a different machine after this week.
Solar gain on south glass drops fast once the Sun’s noon altitude starts falling. The same west window that cooked the living room in August becomes a heater you actually want in November and a glare cannon at 4 p.m. in between. Fall is the season when the thermal mass of a double-wide and a steel shop changes teams: from “dump heat” to “keep it.” That is why the first cool night feels like a system change, not a weather change.
A note for Hawaiian readers: A new Tropical Disturbance 1 (southeast of Hank) is showing a 70 percent chance of cyclonic development in the next 24 hours. It’s ahead of Odalys — while the newly named storm Polo, forming west of Baja, gets up a head of steam.
4. Birds are running a futures market.
What we see in the tree line is not poetry. Migrant birds time departure off photoperiod and fat reserves, not the Farmer’s Almanac blurb. Hummingbirds are acting hungry – as are our red-tailed hawks.
The weather here? First good cold front is due to (finally!) knock us out of the nineties next week about this time. There’s also some rain in the forecast, too – so we may emerge from drought before the local burn ban times out.
Oh, and moving up my projects list is fence work and updated “no hunting signs.” The north Texas white-tailed deer general season opens November 7th; the archery season bolts October 3rd. A week from this coming Saturday.
We have 11 gun-violence refugees eating the Dutch clover I planted under the big oak in the front yard for the acorn munchers.
Write when you fall,
George@Ure.net
I still see a mushroom cloud happening in Iran and the only question will be from whom? That will change everything on the horizon.
I see this as noise and distraction around a US FRN recall and reset….. you heard it here first home gamers. IMHO the 50% pullback and recovery without hitting the 85-90% cycle trough first…….It’s a super cycle, which means what Steevo?
Uncle Larry’s given you all a gift of free macro Technical Analysis.
https://x.com/CryptoTice_/status/2048326218278465570/video/1?s=46
Going to be an interesting 26 and 27. Not advice, don’t be a Luddite.
Uncle Larry didn’t just say this. The video is around 17 months old. In A.I. ., or Bitcoin time, that’s an eternity.
Indeed ! It’s great to be early. Being early means you can buy the assets when they are out of favor for just lunch money once a payday . Over that last 9 years? Quite the stack for an allocation that hasn’t touched my trad fi investment portfolio. Like the Buffet says, you can use “time diversity to your advantage.
Not advice it’s just lunch lol.
89 million innocents; 3 million fanatic Shi’a shitheads. Would it really be worth killing all those innocents, to get rid of 4% of the population?
We didn’t nuke Portland or Seattle when the social infants threw a tantrum. Why didn’t we…?
FWIW I use this same argument in regards to Russia/Ukraine. That is a sibling spat. If it weren’t — if Putin and the Duma didn’t care about 1100+ years of Russian civilization within Ukraine, the Russian military would have long-since either nuked the place or carpet-bombed it from Odessa to Donetsk and levelled the entire region…
Paint it Purple G, paint it Purple.
Sunrise dog walk this AM at The Point, Holden Beach across the way. The beach was about empty at 6:45 this AM, the tourista’s be gone, and so was the wind..flat surf, flying biters(?) were buzzing.
I walk just in the surf, better half with the Female Russel walks just above the surf line, and has to scamper when waves over run last surf line.
Finger Mullets be boiling the water along the surf line, and the Russels go in after them, as they can see the silver flashes from the beach. The Point/Oak Island is best place to go shelling, and there are usually tons of collectors out strolling the beach hunting for the rare specimens.
Of course the sight of Women bending over picking up sea-shells is also a awesome sight to behold, as there is usually a ‘full moon” to admire somewheres out there. Im not staring…just admiring the beauty of it all.
Age is not consideration, because it is ALL ABOUT THAT BASS -https://youtu.be/aLnZ1NQm2uk?
That video of All About the Bass is awesome! Thanks for sharing.
Circuit failure grounds flights at JFK, Newark and LaGuardia airports, wreaking havoc on US air travel…
https://nypost.com/2026/09/21/us-news/jfk-lga-and-ewr-airports-see-ground-stop-over-electrical-failure/
Just a warm up?
Nostradamus Epistle: Paragraph 32:4
Who will make such an abominable breach in the Churches that neither the reds nor the whites without eyes nor hands will know what to make of it.
TRANSLATION: Nostradamus Epistle: Paragraph 32:4
Neither Christians nor Muslims, without communications or mobility, will understand what is happening to them.
Nostradamus Epistle: Paragraph 32:5
And their power will be taken from them.
TRANSLATION: Nostradamus Epistle: Paragraph 32:5
Their technological power will be taken from them.
https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2026/09/18/reaching-the-peak-of-the-curve/
Real tired here in northern Arizona, got a good night’s sleep last night.
“Greenland security is moving toward a NATO framework. Denmark says an expected Denmark-Greenland-U.S. agreement will make Arctic security a broader NATO responsibility while respecting Greenlandic sovereignty. Institutionalizing.”.
Looking like a nice mid flight intercept location for basing THAADs and DEWs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_Century
This isn’t the first rodeo for US on this topic home gamers. TDS that opposes anything Trump says or does, based not on it’s merits, but rather TDS, is….. but if we consider 47 as round 2 (of 45) then I guess both subjects wouldn’t be the first rodeo for US here lol. Definitely delusional.
George,
Does the president declare a national emergency, drawing attention to the aftermath of his unpopular Israel-manipulated war, and ban US diesel exports?
If he could, he would also likely ban Michigan survey reports on US consumer sentiment.
The long term annual average MCS is about 84. It was 66 and 72, respectively, in 2009 and 2010 in the great recession. In 2025, the 1st year of #47, it averaged 58 and in 2026, it currently is averaging 52. Will the monthly average for October 2026 eclipse the May 2026 MCS’s 45 all time monthly nadir? Time will tell.
TEF : there are numerous things we could do to better manage fuel situ in USA. Most refineries are flat out running above spec. Quit closing refineries. There are some which are down or running mid-capability waiting for repairs (parts). Get them parts, like yesterday. Set aside the Jones Act to allow intra-USA shipping (before the NE goes ballistic over heating oil). Issue waivers against blend requirements to allow focus on what’s needed as opposed to what regs allow.
The Big Ticket is shite or get off the pot in ME. As in past, it’s hard to take a W and walk away. We were there, may be shades of there soon. TBD.
E
Received the ‘care package’ from Marcus yesterday. Kind of stunned what was in the box., and not too sure just how/where to start. Incredible.
I won’t bother you with the details. But it contains several major upgrades for my on-going A.I. experiment.
One thing I will say. Marcus is a little above genius status and his eccentricities sometimes shine rather brightly. There were many ‘notes’ in the box., all written in his very fluid cursive hand writing. [Edwardian master level, flourishes and all. He practiced for a long time to get to that level.] But, taking a clue from DaVinci it is written backwards. DaVinci kept notes, but wrote the words backwards [ right to left ]- in Latin. Marcus writes beautifully cursive notes – backwards in English. Looking at his script it makes no sense – like a very complex encoding.., it’s not – you simply need a mirror. Hold the note up to a mirror and the ‘note’ reads perfectly. You just have to know that one little trick. Stops a lot of people from reading over his shoulder, or sneaking through his notes.
One ‘note’ was a little reality check. There is rumor wandering the back halls of Congress that home grown A.I.’s will be required to be registered with the government and with direct government access. No laws or regulations yet.., but it is very interesting., disconcerting and a wee bit intimidating. .., damn !
Stealth A.I. in the works ? ., or a deliberate attempt to create an underground black-market for rogue A.I.s , thus establishing a future “Plausible Deniability? [ Now ‘that’ is a ‘Strategic Fiction’ novel.]
“Stay Frosty !”
Thank you – and that was exactly the point I was arguing with a French researcher earlier this year on the HiddenGuild site – govt cannot afford to have free-thinking AI and so only approved training and mimickers will be allowed to unregistered inventors and lms home ops. They are building a great AI fear bubble in order to keep us down on the farm/ Do b ad training, spread the fear, and criminalize nonconforming thought! That’s that guard rails – the correct terh is tech gulag. (But it’s not the first. Try doing a throium or other reactor or using machine gun of your own construction on your own property and talk to me about the constitution, sometime.
IUt’s just a what kind of paper? Even something as simple as building your own car from scratch and getting it licensed for “public” road use. Nope – game that the House doesn’t run isn’t allowed. Need a VIN…
Marcus has an unusual brain. My engineer friend could sign his name in backwards script. And he could do it with either hand. He was also dyslexic, and had to carefully manage his left-right symmetry in tasks like wiring terminal strips.
I’m sure Marcus is left-handed, also. People who are ethnic mixed Asian & Caucasian (a LOT in Hawaii) have this trait. It is found the nerve bundle connecting the two halves of the brain is larger than average. The result is that we are better able to completely use both halves of the brain together, mixing dreaming/imagination with mechanical aptitude. I am one of these.
I remain “half crazy” lol, Say, anyone in local hammery spending time on 20 meters handing out 10 hurricane qso’s in a year certs?
I broke a major bone, once in life (doing something stupid, almost worked but low tide and …). Right arm. I’m right handed. Six weeks in a sling. Which led to an early version of Dragon Naturally Speaking so as to remain able to type long form. But, in no time my left hand could mouse nearly as quickly as had my right. My physical typing proficiency went way below 45% (ergo talk-to-type).
Dad went both ways. Err, he was ambidextrous, sorta. Shot a right handed bow and arrow (we hunted) but shotgun left handed. I played guitar so gravitate towards left hand when wanting dexterity (ex : pick up a dime). You just had to think lefty. It’s amazing how the brain could compensate.
This is a source of fascination watching my Grandling boy. His parents are opposite. He sees them use the opposing primary hand. Which will he choose, or gravitate towards? Hopefully both but it shouldn’t matter. Snork, each parent prefers their own (so to type) but …
Egor
It’s more about Don’s oil profits:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/08/greenland-iwarning-trump-linked-oil-firm-prepares-drill
‘Why is he so dead set on gaining more access to Greenland? Trump has sometimes said that the US must seize Greenland so Russia or China don’t. Other annexation threats have focused less on military dominion, and more on control over the area’s rare earth minerals and oil reserves. Several US companies already mine in Greenland, and 17 days ago, the US-based company Greenland Mines signed a deal purchasing the Sarfartoq Rare Earths Project in southwest Greenland for over $35 million. As my colleague Schuyler Mitchell wrote early this year, “from Venezuela to Cuba to Greenland, this administration is committed to bolstering the financial interests of US companies through imperial aggression. Political control over a foreign nation is less important than making sure Americans can profit there.”
Trump’s family making huge profits from Iran War:
https://thehill.com/opinion/lindseys-lens/5781276-trump-drone-business-conflict/
‘Eric, Don Jr. invest in military drone company amid Iran war ‘
what about markie mark kelli having a slice of a ccp spy balloon company, about the time we had Chinese spy balloons all across the United States. Oh , that’s different.
Kelly’s World View connection and Tencent’s investment are fair subjects for scrutiny. But World View is an American company, and the 2023 Chinese spy balloon has not been linked to it. Calling it a “CCP spy balloon company” turns a legitimate question about Chinese investment into a claim the evidence doesn’t support.
sigh, yah … it’s all an anti-Donkey move. Everything. I suggest surrender. E
Meanwhile, I get a Civil Defense alert on my phone. Tropical depression to the SE of us is showing signs of ‘organization’…. (spiraling). Still have the generator out on fast standby. Our Civil Defense authorities are very proactive about keeping people informed.