Yes, we are going to have a “hard landing.” Of course, Ure is not the only one saying this (I’ve been saying it for almost 2-years now!). Others, like the “smartest guy in the room” are saying it too. Witness The Odds of Avoiding a Downturn Have Dropped, Mohamed E-Erian Says. If you don’t follow … Read More
[Publishing in sections due to power issues due to storms in East Texas ongoing. Which are kind of fun. See the Around the Ranch action.) Quite the stew! Not much point in playing the market, just yet. There is some risk – as we explained in the Peoplenomics report Wednesday – of an upside surprise. But … Read More
We continue to evolve a “soft science” of waveform similarities. But getting this part of the present market decline has been enjoyable so far. One of my great joys in Life is being able to pay lots of income tax. Not because Elaine can’t spend better than Congress. But because it means we are making … Read More
As we expected, the Labor JOLTS report came in hotter than expected and that just about puts a nail in the Fed having to raise rates at the end of the month. To quote from the report: “The number of job openings increased to 9.6 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. … Read More
Report from Iron Mountain (on the accessibility and desirability of peace) laid out the problem brilliantly. Essentially: What is the incentive of nominally free people to give away between 25 and 50% of their labors to government? You need big sticks if you’re in the “governing business.” The Big Sticks are: War (actual) War (threatened) … Read More
Welcome to the Monday morning edition of The Future Game. There are multiple “angles” to seeing the Future. One way is “Numerics” – which we do a lot of around here. Stock prices, bonds, cryptos, projections, money supplies and all that represent the “craps game in the alley out back.” A kind of floating estimate … Read More
Too much time with my ass-glued to the trading chair this week, so zero projects to update on except a few small ham radio thingies. Of course, I could take a picture of the ashpit dump out back where I dumped the contents of the burn barrel this week? Of pictures of the squared-way 100-meter … Read More
Our September only gains closed the month +9.8 percent. Yes, this pencils out to about 300 percent per year. Remarkably, we have readers who are doing even better than us. We don’t approach stocks as “investing” anymore. We treat the market like a wager. When you do that, things like dollar-cost-averaging get tossed out the … Read More
Statistics, contrary to popular belief, don’t tell us where we are. Only where we were some time ago. Life is “offset from the numbers.” For example, on a 4-hour statistical period, your average driving speed may be 40-miles per hour. But it means absolutely nothing if you are heel & toe through the corkscrew on the east side … Read More
God, I love my meta index work! Earlier this week, in the Wednesday Peoplenomics.com subscriber report, I made an outlandish call for where the markets COULD go based on my theories of multiple markets, entrainment, and predictability of the human psyche. That was the Line, Bounce, and Crash post, right? Two out of three came … Read More
We have fresh data! More 1929 rhymes. But there’s more. I have enjoyable and very lifelike vivid dreams quite frequently. But two, in particular overnight seem to have dealt with Taiwan woo-woo. Because that is one of the few “big deals” in the foamy world of future-emergent news bubbles that could drive such a close … Read More
It occurred to me (after being up all night running future scenarios) that non-subscribers might be interested in what all that “line, bounce, crash” stuff was about. Let’s see the line, first. As I have been telling you for several weeks (months, actually) since the 7/31/23 high we are now in a position to drop … Read More
Our outlooks provide for a drop of more than 1,000 Dow points before month-end. Today is Bounce. Though we have to admit a certain fascination with learning whether the Replay/Rhyme on 1929 can possibly be that deterministic. In other words, one path forward through a chaos theory window is to conduct high-intensity study of starting … Read More