As we expected, the Labor JOLTS report came in hotter than expected and that just about puts a nail in the Fed having to raise rates at the end of the month.
To quote from the report:
“The number of job openings increased to 9.6 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.9 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.
On the last business day of August, the number and rate of job openings increased to 9.6 million +690,000) and 5.8 percent, respectively. Over the month, job openings increased in professional and business services (+509,000), finance and insurance (+96,000), state and local government education (+76,000), nondurable goods manufacturing (+59,000), and federal government (+31,000).”
The effect on markets was – as expected – a blip to the downside.
Of course, the reality is government spending is driving most of the economic growth, because who else has money, anymore? Still, it is what it is.
The problem is whether the market will be able to find the strength this week to get above the long-term trend line which defines the Wave 2 rally we have been in since mid 2022.
Sadly, with the first leg down on the JOLTS report, we did drop under the line so now comes the question “Can we rally?”
We popped into an index short ETF in the preopen at $15.96 and out at $16.12, which is where the lunch money came from. But when I looked, it was still running ($16.32…yikes!) so I left almost $200 on the table.
There’s an old saying about letting your winners run, but it directly conflicts with the saying about “pigs get slaughtered.”
Working on that.
Off to do real work around here now…
Write when we get rich,