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Another Week to Peak – Weekend Weathering – Andy’s Elixir

There’s a reason the market hasn’t rolled over yet—and it may not be bullish.

For a little change-up today, let’s look through the keyhole at how Peoplenomics thinks. Less hot air, more model-driven.

To understand it, you may benefit from exposure to the concept of X-waves.

In Elliott Wave Theory, an X-wave (also called an intervening or connecting wave) is a corrective wave that links two or more simple corrective patterns to form a larger complex correction, such as a double zigzag (labeled W-X-Y) or triple combination (W-X-Y-X-Z).

Unlike the numbered impulse waves that drive the main trend, the X-wave is always corrective in nature—typically taking the form of a zigzag, flat, or triangle—and moves counter to the preceding corrective leg before the next corrective wave (Y or Z) resumes in the dominant direction.

So, in the present market lineup, we can see the completion done last year, a Wave 1 down and what we thought was a Wave 2 (which should have completed this week).  It hasn’t – yet.  Don’t lose your focus.

If this is an X-wave (or variant) we could go to marginally higher all-time highs, but the wave could very well end around the (extended from previous highs) upper trend channel.

At the end of a major bull market (which peaks in a fifth impulse wave amid peak optimism and often lower volume), the ensuing bearish correction can unfold as one of these complex structures rather than a simple ABC pattern; the X-wave then appears as a deceptive counter-trend rally that interrupts the decline, luring in late bulls before the deeper sell-off continues.

This adds time and volatility to the downturn while keeping the overall corrective count intact. Which is why the next month, or two, are so critical.  My out-of-the-money options for mid-summer have not collapsed on the floor, which could be a hint.  If the market was indicating higher – and staying there – my options should have fallen harder and faster.  But, they haven’t.  Options markets are still pricing downside risk—something they wouldn’t do if a sustained rally were expected. Thus our X-Wave ponder.

One of two things seems likely: either this is a delayed Wave 2 top about to roll hard—or we are in an X-wave that can still push marginal new highs before the real decline begins. In either case, the larger risk remains lower prices ahead. The only open question is whether the market finishes out the current sucker rally before slamming the gates shut.

X-Waves are sort of rare, but far from unheard of. It doesn’t come as a surprise that an X-Wave could form when we have a huge “reality gap” between outlooks.  My consigliere notes the U.S. hasn’t slowed its military prepping – and it’s a tough call in here whether talk of a Cuba Invasion (Pentagon ramps up planning for possible US military operation in Cuba) is real OR whether it’s a cover story to keep China and Russia, the Saudis and whoever else, from freaking the hell out.

Point here?  In market history, such X-waves have been identified in the complex corrections following major tops—for instance, after the 1990s dot-com bull market peak in 2000, the Nasdaq’s bear phase featured a prominent W-X-Y structure where the X-wave produced a sharp but temporary 2001 recovery (trapping optimistic traders) before the final Y-wave leg drove prices to 2002 lows.

Wonder why the 2008-2009 collapse has multiple “top calls” along the way? In retrospect, analysts have noted X-waves in the 2007–2009 financial crisis correction after the prior bull run, where intervening rallies prolonged the decline and amplified the eventual crash.

These patterns underscore how X-waves often create false hope at bull-market exhaustion points, rewarding patient wave counters who recognize the complexity early.

I’m not the only one seeing it as “hang in, down is likely ahead” (not that any of us financial market gadflies offer advice), but a read of the Economic Fractalist’s column this week gets into the same turf, in fractal equivalents.

The slaughter house is still filling the pens.  And our state variance extremes work is screaming “Overbought!” at near-record levels.

A Peoplenomics “Freebie”

There is a reason why our Peoplenomics ChartPack has grown from less than a dozen pages to sometimes passing 40 pages twice weekly.  Charts offer tremendous insights.
Let me show you how to draw a very useful one with a ruler (or knowing how to use the drawing tools in a spreadsheet) and how to place two significant lines.

Step 1.  You begin noticing if the trend (left to right) is going higher or lower.  Obviously, we are going up (still).  So we notice a convenient lower extreme of the chart (on the left) (see “A”) and one a ways to the right (see “B”):

Step 2:  Connect them with a green line which – being a chart wizard trainee should become second-nature over time.

Step 3: Copy the green line – paste – and change its color to red.

Step 4: Slide your now red line up to the highest point between A and B.  This, young racketeer is point “C”.

Step 5: Stare at what you see. Adults may wish a strong beverage or roasting of a bowl at this point.  But what you’re trying to see is any similarities along the way.

Step 6: For me, the blue arrow sure looks interesting.  So now, you can see how charts are “suggestive of” our Future.  Does it help if I now tell you that’s a three-year view of the Dow?

Less work, but more meaning.  Our ChartPack work on state variance extremes.

On the way (up-slope) things will occasionally get wild. Wild Optimism or jump from the bridge pessimism.  To these tired eyes, we’re clearly up in lithium carbonate salts country today – especially in the techs:

The TEF figures another week. A retired Cisco DSP (PhD) schooled me long-ago:
“You can have time or you can have price – but not both at once.”

The “field changes” – like how dividends have been replaced by stock price-appreciation as how shareholders harvest value over time –  and a host of other fine print (impacts of systemic long-term-inflation) is how ChartPacks got to be long, interesting, and (eventually) profitable.

OMG!  Look at the clock, would you?  Homework tonight: Radiation winds aloft dispersion models and a dusty bunny census in your own home…

Philly Fed, Jobless Claims, Drought

Most of the news flow this morning is so much re-hash, we could open a Denny’s.

From Philadelphia Fed:

New UI Vacation Applications

And “How Dry We Am”

Which gets us to mentioning the whole point of Thursday.

Near as I can figure, this day of the week exists for the sole purpose of allowing me time to figure out the coming weekend’s weather.  Today and tomorrow will be hot so “Ride’em Mow Boy!”  follows breakfast.  Then 20% vinegar on the pesky weeds since we don’t do glyphosate.  Rain Saturday means inside shop work. Sunday may see a ham radio antenna go up.

I’m headed for mow town today – showers overnight night mean no dust.

Does Other News Matter?

Not so much: US Democrats file impeachment articles against Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth.  Up there in predictability with, oh, sunrise.

Drilling into Trump fog: White House denies US requested Iran ceasefire extension, says next talks ‘very likely’ in Pakistan.  Yes, cue the actors: Trump’s ‘favourite field marshal’ Asim Munir arrives in Tehran to revive US-Iran peace talks. ?this could all take longer to fall apart that we expected.  N100 masks with pressure relief are still on the restock list…along with sunscreen.

Here’s a head-scratcher for you: UK food supply at risk as Iran conflict threatens CO2 supplies – FarmingUK News.

Not enough to worry about in your life?  Here’s one – on the house: Two supermassive black holes are now heading for a Universe-shaking collision | BBC Science Focus Magazine.

And in our Replaying 1929 Model, the outlook for the Guthrie case to play out the replay of the Lindbergh kidnapping continues on track: Savannah Guthrie’s Mother Nancy Guthrie Still Missing 75 Days After Chilling Tucson Abduction.

Around the Ranch: Andy’s Elixir

Prize gem in the Comments today is from reader RJ – who – at 88 -is on chair’s edge waiting for Andy – sailing the oceans blue – to tip his hand on the “Golden Elixir” that one old salt claims will put lead in your pencil and turn back the clock.  Here’s here guess at what might be in it:

“GOLDEN MILK called THE “ELIXIR OF LIFE” is a nourishing Ayurvedic drink because it:
*Reduces Inflammation & Pain: Turmeric combats inflammation and helps manage joint pain. The black pepper and healthy fats (oil/ghee) increase the absorption of turmeric’s health benefits by up to 2,000%.
*Boosts Immunity: The combination of turmeric, ginger, and cinnamon provides antibacterial and antiviral properties.
*Supports Brain Health:
It may boost brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), potentially improving cognitive function and reducing Alzheimer’s risk.
*Improves Digestion & Skin: It supports a healthy gut microbiome and can contribute to clearer skin.
*Promotes Better Sleep: Drinking warm cozy drink at night aids in relaxation and better sleep quality.
*Antioxidant Powerhouse: Helps combat oxidative stress, protecting cells and promoting longevity.
*Balances Blood Sugar: Ingredients like cinnamon and ginger help manage blood sugar levels.

RECIPE:
1 cup Milk (Oat, Almond, Coconut, or Dairy)
1 tsp Ground Turmeric
1/2 tsp Cinnamon (ground or stick)
1/4 tsp Ginger (ground or freshly grated)
Pinch Black Pepper (essential for absorption)
1 tsp Maple syrup or Honey (optional)
1/2 tsp Coconut oil or Ghee (for maximum absorption)

INSTRUCTIONS:
Combine ingredients in saucepan.
Heat: Whisk everything together and warm over low-medium heat for 5-10 minutes, allowing the flavors to meld. Do not let it boil.
Sweeten: Remove from heat and stir in the sweetener.
Serve: Strain through a sieve if you used fresh ginger/turmeric and pour into a mug. Option: dust with more cinnamon.

About here,  a couple of teaspoons of MCT oil (50% C8 and 50% C10) is about all we can handle. But yes, we too are awaiting the Pacific secret.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

26 thoughts on “Another Week to Peak – Weekend Weathering – Andy’s Elixir”

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  1. rigged reich regime wave .. turn it up .. just another can kicking day . discrace . SEC . aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. compliance AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAA. inside trading aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.

    Reply

  2. GU : “… I am old, but not so old I can’t sheet in a main and jib on a 20-25 foot trailerable rig. Mind wandered to a West Wight Potter. “My, Egor really got to this one first. You’re never too old to sail …”

    George, both you and Stiks opined on sailing out of the Gate. The last time for me was onboard the America Replica (built to close standards of the first America’s Cup winner, circa 1851). She’s LOA 101 ft 3 in, sporting a sail plan with 5,296 sq ft. Though a guest we were expected to haul ropes (launching the main was a bear). I was ill prepared having forgotten my gloves. Rough ropes.

    https://nextlevelsailing.com/yacht-america/

    When the time comes (sadly my spinal infirmity is degrading physical abilities) my boats will get handed off to the next guy. First option on the E Scow will be reverse gift to the Summer Camp she came from. Or, I’ll sell it and gift the money to our YC widows and old sailor fund? The lateen dinghy will be easy. A factory second, she’s still the “fastest hunk ‘o junk in the galaxy” (sez me).

    Then what? I have a fleet of RC sail boats to race. Sigh.
    [that ends the OBSCON for the day]
    Egor ~ __|_ ~~

    Reply

  4. cmon da boyz lets giddy up some gold and smash the USD$ to git it goin agin . no worries ill sell yah more gold and gold stocks tommorrow , and you can pay with USD$ you hate . reichmasters are go . cmon chant as well !!! and slag the pope and catholics . a real classy bunch of fellas under capo donny

    Reply

  6. Slick Iranians are up to shenanigans. Yea, “equipment.”

    “A major fire at Viva Energy’s oil refinery in Geelong has raised concerns about fuel supplies, as the site produces 50% of Victoria’s and 10% of Australia’s fuel. The fire, caused by equipment failure, led to multiple explosions but resulted in no injuries.”

    That’s what they get for turning their back on the blockade. Australia was first for COVID lock-downs and will be first w/Energy Lock-downs.

    Reply

  7. Just closed-out my Russell 2000 Call Options. The Russell has been climbing nicely since the war started.., very close to a new record.., just a few points short. [ Time to bail.]

    I have rarely traded the Russell – just don’t pay that much attention to it anymore.., but a few weeks ago., just before “the first strike”, it popped up on my radar – so I went with it – two Call options. Did very well.

    Reply

  8. George HW Bush makes his reappearance on the World’s Stage from beyond the grave. Well maybe not the man … but the ship named for the LYING Asshole. It is only appropriate that he will be reappearing in the Middle East, the land of where his lies were most noticeable. (apple didn’t fall far from pappy’s tree wrt his son)

    The USS George H. W. Bush will be arriving near the Gulf of Oman about the 24th to 26th of April as near as I can calculate. It is near the tip of Africa at the moment, 4500 to 5000 nautical miles from there to the Straits of Hormuz. I figure only 20 knots average over a strait line track since it has a need for ongoing aircraft operations plus the need for en-route resupply of the support vessels which will slow it down from it’s actual cruising speed (20 knots average for a carrier task force making haste has worked out for me several times in the past when estimating transit times)

    We also continue to pour other military assets into the region so obviously our government believes the War has more WAR to go in the not too distant future, unless of course the Iranians let Pres. Trump select the next ruler of Iran (which we all know is NOT going to happen).

    I will be thrilled if the Iranians cave and give us what we want, fingers crossed, but if not and the Straits are still closed look for Marines to be sent into Iran, at least along the Straits, sometime in late April to mid May. IMO the markets are celebrating WAY too early … but then again Short Squeezes are amazing things to watch unfold when almost everybody has gotten on one side of a trade.

    (so far no let up in the Oil/LNG/LPG/Chemical Products/Aluminum shortages in the Asian markets. LOTS of oil, hundreds of millions of barrels, was in floating storage plus additional production from other producers has come on line so it is probably the least effected but the shortages in the other products is starting to really bite)

    Reply

    • “I will be thrilled if the Iranians cave”

      I won’t.

      I want to see the Arabs dead and gone, and the Persians back in control of their country. Anything less, and the myriad problems fomented locally, regionally, and worldwide by the Shia Mullahs will not go away. They’ll go underground, to emerge 10x worse and 1000x more dangerous. Remember, they hold no sanctity for human life. Their sole motivation is to spawn the 12th Imam and usher in heaven on Earth, and they would literally, nuke the entire planet to bring this about. ‘Thing is, while Trump can help, the purge has to come from the Persians, themselves, or it won’t sit right with the other regional players, and won’t fix the problems…

      Reply

  9. Trump announced a 10-Day cease fire between Lebanon and Israel. Oil futures eased a touch.., but & however – the back story is that the two main terrorists’ factions inside Lebanon have said that the phony Lebanese government does not speak for them and never will.

    This cease fire has a life expectancy of around one lunch-hour.

    Reply

    • “This cease fire has a life expectancy of around one lunch-hour.”

      That’s about right. Iran’s satellite terrorist groups won’t cease and desist until their Am-Ex Black cards get shut down…

      Reply

  10. (“My consigliere notes the U.S. hasn’t slowed its military prepping – and it’s a tough call in here whether talk of a Cuba Invasion (Pentagon ramps up planning for possible US military operation in Cuba) is real OR whether it’s a cover story to keep China and Russia, the Saudis and whoever else, from freaking the hell out.”)

    lol lol lol…who aren’t we planning on attacking…

    https://youtu.be/eZXgYKx0aQI?si=nNH-g63d0L5XCXlb

    oh my god don’t give them any wild ideas lol..in the bubble of the DISTRICT…

    https://youtu.be/xuGpjiL39HA?si=igexT9GpOAbr76TX

    It’s hard to look at the current situation and see any outcome that doesn’t carry serious consequences. Our economy is already strained with inflation, high costs, and general uncertainty have left people stressed and stretched thin. When a society is under that kind of pressure, any major international conflict adds another layer of instability that ordinary citizens feel immediately.

    What worries me is that this isn’t happening in isolation. We’re living through a moment where global power structures are shifting.
    If this conflict accelerates the move toward a multipolar world, it could undermine confidence in long?standing financial systems and weaken the credibility of fiat currencies.( AKAT brics becomes tge dominent currency and the fiat currencies collapse under tge weight of not being backed by anything at all except our leader posiyion as superior) hat kind of transition has ripple effects that reach far beyond geopolitics.

    On the other hand, if the conflict continues to escalate, the number of nations involved and the existing tensions between them make it easy to imagine things turning in a very dangerous direction. History shows that when stressed systems collide — economic, political, and military — outcomes can become unpredictable fast… the puppeteers that have dominated and controlled countries for thousands of years have to admit they no longer the position of authority…. scary huh…

    To me, it reflects the same pattern we’ve seen throughout history over and over:
    societies drifting toward the “Babylonian” path of power, control, and short?term gain, even when it leads to long?term instability. And once that momentum builds, it becomes difficult to steer things back toward balance.
    do they admit defeat we enter a Weimar type depression.. or escalate it like a nation flailing and humiliated.. not good.. Vanity is high and admitting we were wrong doesn’t come easy..

    Reply

  13. Followup:

    Mystery clouds deaths, disappearances of scientists with UFO research ties

    Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News the administration deems the matter worth investigating

    Published April 16, 2026 2:37pm EDT | Updated April 16, 2026 2:42pm EDT

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/mystery-clouds-deaths-disappearances-scientists-ufo-research-ties-timeline

    FOXNews was hiding this from search engines, possibly because it was so new, possibly for some other reason, and it was not accessible in any form or language via a search on the FOXNews’ site. I knew it existed, so “exercised” the FN sites until it showed its face.

    You’re welcome…

    Reply

  14. I’m taking a double shot of Moroccan Olive oil… the highest in Polyphenols… daily, per Dr. Steven Gundry. So far, so good.

    Reply

    • There are two common methods for assaying polyphenol content of olive oil. The first, NMR, tends to yield numbers about 1.6x the numbers of the second method, liquid chromatography (LC). I tend to gauge potency on a taste test. If it is nasty bitter and burns bad enough to make you cough, it is the real deal. The best deal I have seen recently is a small bottle of Italian Entimio Intenso on Amazon. It is strictly medicinal, kinda like a shot of liquid Drano. It carries a 1000+ mg/kg polyphenol rating, which I suspect is an LC rating. I have another bottle of a 1500mg/kg by NMR that taste test says is not as potent.
      Age and how long the bottle has been open affects potency. As soon as you break the seal on a bottle, it starts oxidizing and weakening. One Company sells theirs in 5 ml ampules. That stuff is reputed to be varnish strong. Fresher is better with the high polyphenol stuff.
      I don’t have any Moroccan or Crete olive oil on hand, but they have their advocates. I’ve noticed that some of the more exotic stuff that shows up in the States are two year old bottles, and really high potency test varieties go for insanely high prices. Buyer beware.

      Reply

    • P-WELL -by Biotest

      Punicalagins – 189 mg(frm Pomegranate whole fruit extract)

      Lycopene -30mg (frm natural tomato fruit extract)

      Cranberry – 500mg

      costs a little more, but the quality is second to none, and yes Ladies will get solid results on this stuff…fantastic.

      Reply

  16. Egor,
    My friend Mike, who I met in Maui, was 81 then and sailing a perfect Mason 44 all around. He was always single handing and his wife would fly to his new places. I asked him when he was going to stop and he said when he couldn’t get the main up anymore. I found out later he installed a nice electric halyard winch and for all I know he could still be Out There.
    Beautiful boat too.
    Stiks

    Reply

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