[Publishing in sections due to power issues due to storms in East Texas ongoing. Which are kind of fun. See the Around the Ranch action.)
Quite the stew! Not much point in playing the market, just yet. There is some risk – as we explained in the Peoplenomics report Wednesday – of an upside surprise. But the trend is…well…is gravity a hint?
Not that fundamentals justify a rally. As go general assets, so go stocks. Gold is down again, so the Dollar is up. That means fewer dollars to “buy an index” and that means (refer to the gravity remark)…
As I started on this morning’s column, the rain was still coming down and there was more than 2 1/2 inches in the gauge. More on this in ATR (last part of the column).
So far overnight (it’s just before 2AM right now) the Hang Seng popped a modest 0.38 percent rally. So my friend, The Economic Fractalist gets to take a “victory lap” for correctly calling for an Asian bottom October 5th. With it, the Nikkei 225 was up 1.8 percent, as well.
It’s too early to do a modeling run on the future. For now, we’re just sipping coffee in the rain. Not interested in hauling the genset out to the transfer switch. Besides, with the genset making power (and noise) how would we tell when the lights were back on?
Kind of like a mirror of an old episode of Runh Silnet, Run Deep – the classic WWII submarine move – we wait for sunlight before the solar panels surface and we charge the batteries again.
Challenger, Gray, and Christmas reports their monthly job cuts tally today.
A little Bidenomics drum roll, please?
Email header: Challenger Report: YTD Job Cut Announcements Up 198% From 2022
Job Cuts Fall From August, Up 58% Over Same Month Last Year; Q3 Cuts Up 92% From Q3 2022
CHICAGO, October 5, 2023 – U.S.-based employers announced 47,457 cuts in September, down 37% from the 75,151 cuts announced in August. It is up 58% from the 29,989 announced in the same month one year prior, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
Despite the drop, September’s total marks the eighth time this year when cuts were higher than the corresponding month a year earlier.
Federal numbers tomorrow. International trade in an hour.
Having Kissed the Trend Line…
Our (up most of the night) early read of the market tells us we came down and then rallied up to the “kiss the line” part overnight. In the early futures this morning, we’ve set up the roll to drop lower from here. Yet, remember, this is not investment advice. Since there’s no investing anymore, anyway, – it’s all Gambling! (Where’s the FTC’s truth in advertising people when we need ’em?)
We shall see – after a nice nap. Bitcoin was rallying earlier but gold was still down and the rest of the world was a stir-fry.
Say, says our Houston Bureau, here’s one to watch: UK’s Metro Bank shares suspended multiple times after plunging more than 25% (cnbc.com).
Biden’s Wall Con
Not bad – 20-years late, facing several states of pissed-loff borders, not to mention the self-righteous pricks in “sanctuary cities” who didn’t really want busloads of illegals showing up… Here comes SloJoe‘s headless henchmen putting this gem in the Federal Register:
DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
Determination Pursuant to Section 102 of the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996, As Amended
AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, (DHS).
ACTION: Notice of determination.
SUMMARY: The Secretary of Homeland Security has determined, pursuant to law, that it is necessary to waive certain laws, regulations, and other legal requirements in order to ensure the expeditious construction of barriers and roads in the vicinity of the international land border in Starr County, Texas.”
This is such a tiny piece of the problem it boggles the mind. Yet, somehow symptomatic of the lazy-liberal approach to scamming the electorate with false representation of genuine action. (Who was rope-a-dope of the Oval on this two, three, even 10-years ago? Nowhere?)
Yet here’s the (spinning) in the mainstream headlines as Biden administration waives 26 federal laws to allow border wall construction in South Texas | AP News. Only leaves how much undone?
Donald Trump’s reaction? “I’m always right…” The anti border people’s reaction is predictable ‘Horrific Step Backwards’: Biden Admin Waives Protections to Speed Border Wall Construction (commondreams.org). Border for Ukraine, but not Texas? Again, hep a brother out? Lap dogs of the leach class.
Yet democrat tradition says you never finish a g.d. thing during your term. You beat it now like a horse “Let me come back and finish the job.” The same sour swill voters have been following from this clown posse since Roosevelt.
But you notice he’s not backing off on opening the borders to Venezuelans and others who will fit right into the radical leftist agenda? Yep, talk about of both sides of their mouths, this party. They’re here to help – while bending you over.
One more Biden note: We know the kid (Hunter) is rotten, but what about “Man’s best friend?” Biden’s Dog Commander Removed From White House After Biting Incidents. Again, the nut falls not far from the…uh….
And speaking of the dem’s and their money bundler (which is all but totally buried by the lamestream): Disgraced crypto king pleads ‘good faith’ in US fraud trial (techxplore.com). Watch him skate? Friends in high places? Bets?
News or Sewage Treatment?
(All has such a familiar odor lately, doesn’t it?)
People in Washington DC who took apart the American Civil Defense system (no, FEMA doesn’t do shelters) have allowed the U.S. to go unprotected against the growing Russian and Chinese military threats. (Go Brandon!) Stories like FEMA activated in the US: Russia conducts nationwide nuclear war exercise for the first time – Simultaneous alert in Moscow and Washington scream to us “Odds of War are rising as odds of Peace fall.”
We totally understand that Thousands of Kaiser Permanente workers strike over ‘unsafe staffing levels’. Where we get lost is seeing how a strike – which takes even more help of the wards and floors, doesn’t exacerbate the unsafe staffing levels. Wanna hep a brother out and explain that for us?
You WANT to get a ticket on the way to (or from) work today! Powerball jackpot jumps to $1.4 billion | Fortune. A win and I could retire to a nice life of philanthropy. (To me….lol)
Around the Ranch: A Clockwork Outage
Both Elaine and I were (marginally) awake at 1:19 AM when the power went off. There was more noise going on outside from the squall line and associated thunder and lightning that you would believe. Like the Tet Offensive or living in Ukraine, here lately.
Unlike the last Big Outage, though, we still had ground line comms through this one. So, instead of waiting for the MagicJack line over Starlink, we were able to use Elaine’s laptop in the house and the phone (battery backup, UPS batteries were replaced all over this summer – preventative maintenance pays off!).
With our outage called in about 1:20 AM, there came the fork in the road: To sleep or to rise?
Another stroke of luck made the call for me. (No way was Elaine out of bed for more than a cursory inspection of the house.).
We brew up coffee every other day. Because there’s a 40 oz. Thermos that keeps almost a whole pot (less 1.5 cups) civilized-tasting for 36 hours. Yesterday’s coffee was still hot. So half a cup of that was poured while I pondered next moves.
No point in wheeling out the generator – but building a gen-shed has moved way up the Project List now. If it had been down to simply open gen-shed, turn key, throw transfer switch, it might have been viable to await Alexa at 4 AM and call it good.
But since it was pouring down rain, I took the hint and decided a shave and shower were in order.
Honestly, there’s no different functionally showering by flashlight compared to the near-surgical lighting levels when the power’s on.
With the outage reported, some coffee onboarded, and plenty of power in the office from that battery-backed-up solar system we put in back in 2008, we were good to go.
Other than review the odd straggler’s comment, listening to the rain on the metal office roof, and comparing satellite speeds up and down during the heaviest bouts of rain, everything has run on rails this time.
With the power outage called in early (helps to have phones up!) we don’t expect anything other than power coming back promptly.
Have an avocado with some thyme on it? Two papers might be taken that way. Let’s all work on Oxindole and Benzoxazinone Alkaloids from the Seeds of Persea americana (Avocado) and Their SIRT1 Stimulatory Activity – PubMed (nih.gov)
What? You don’t have a chem lab in your home to deconstruct the avocado seed? Didn’t you watch Breaking Bad?
A couple of short drone flights served as warm-ups with the new Potensic Atom SE drone we picked out. The SE has only one camera adjustment in flight – it’s the look ahead/look down adjustment. They do have the non- SE version out, which has the traditional 3-axis gimbals, but honestly, I really prefer the “tilted horizon” that comes with single-axis camera.
The GPS is exceptional, but where I ran into a problem (took some brainwork to figure it out) was that the drone would keep cycling back into “calibration mode.”
OK,. if you don’t have a drone license (I transitioned to UAVs from ASEL with 1,000+ hours PIC time, transcons, yada-yada), before you fly the drone wants to be moved this way (around the horizontal axis) and that (being the vertical) so the electronics “knows where up” is.
Problem – at least for now we’re thinking it was the problem – is that we were trying to calibrate within 20-feet of multiple wi-fi wireless machines. I’ve got a ticket in for their support people. When I took down the Starlink router (6-feet from the controller) it did link up, though there was another wireless router inside the office, so 10-feet tops.
The Atom has a very nice controller, except…. An old man at 74 really needs to plan ahead if you’re planning to use a drone on a phone. The cheapo (Android 13 10.1″) was too big to fit in the controller-joystick holder. Though it’s a graceful design if you have a smaller phone. As it was, I have a longer (2-foot) cable coming because the controller-to-phone cable was marginal with the phone precariously held/balanced outside the holder.
Last, but not least, I didn’t get any (sharable) footage because I’d skipped the camera control for recording video. (*Button, upper left on the controller). Too focused on flight controls due to the old “Aviate, navigate, communicate” drilled in deeply flying the full-sized jobbies. Ground school forgot to cover “cinemate” in the pilot training back when…
Suck is fast though. Will zip at up to 35-miles an hour, but it’s a bear on a cheap phone (read: low nits and not sunlight useful). Which is why we are now looking for a 1000 nit phone so we can get more outdoor use out of it.
OK, why the Atom? Main thing was it’s one of the few drones that has it’s own video AND control link at the /RF level. See, most drones simply “pair up” with a phone over your existing wi-fi connection. Problem with this is that while it’s fine close-in, remember we have 30-acres to patrol (hunting season is just around the corner) and that means minimum 2,000 foot range with some path loss for tree absorption.
This drone happens to claim a 4KM /2 1/2 mile range – impressive stuff – and it’s small enough there’s no way, short of a shoulder-mounted Hubble Telescope that you could fly keeping the drone in sight which is what the FAA requires in the regs. Yeah, fine theory that in the world of FPV flyers.
Why a drone? What Now? All fair questions.
But as I admitted on Peoplenomics Wednesday, I have a new HF radio antenna design (which I’m also working on in the dark this morning) that needs to be tested.
Higher is almost always better in antenna matters, and with G2 sucked back into the six-figure world and up north somewhere, the only reasonable way to get antennas over trees is Kevlar fishing line (50 pound test) which the drone will carry over any of our tallest trees allowing me to place things exactly where desired. Then use that line to haul up 800 pound paracord…and now we’re getting somewhere.
One of these days, I will get some footage of that whole process because it really makes it easy as a ham radio (addict) to get antennas well into the sky where they can work well.
On that note, back to working on my new antenna. Because there’s always more modeling to be done.
Write when you get rich (and the lights come back)