High-level view first today: I’m going to show you a number of charts and make the case that while the COVID-19 virus IS something to be concerned about, there is a much greater threat to humans: The arrival of a Global Depression. Let’s begin with the present 30-day change-rate of the spread. (These graphics will … Read More
I don’t want you to be a victim of circumstances. To get there, you need to learn to see the world differently. Mold it to you instead of the other way around. Cast-off the chains of group-think. Smart School is now in session… We have done a couple of articles on how to set up … Read More
Yee gads. Anther quiet weekend and yet…there’s a lot of moving pieces, so here’s an early AM Update: On the Virus Spread The spread continues. Here’s our latest daily rate-of-change work based on sources found to be reliable (Hopkins and WHO): As you can see, the daily numbers of cases (yellow highlight, top) stabilized. But, … Read More
If our topics sound a bit scattered, they’re not: It’s a cross between a Sit-Rep, Social Outlook about Where Your Money’s going. All of which got me out of bed and firing up a fresh pot of Kona roast at 1:00 AM. In an attempt at contextualizing some of what may lay before us in … Read More
We again confront the age-old Editor’s Paradox: Do we begin with what’s important or do we lead with what’s urgent? Not that hard to answer, since I’ve been telling you what’s important all week. We’ll change-up a bit and lead with urgent instead. We have three data points to consider: The Jobs Data, Fresh International … Read More
You won’t see it in the headlines, most places. But, it lurks. It stalks, and we’re in the process of playing the same modest market bounce that we did in 1929 prior to the markets declining more than 35%. OK, may sound melodramatic, but thinking people with spreadsheets all over the world are coming to … Read More
Just a technical note: For the first time in almost 20-years of living in the Outback of East Texas, we were totally without coms this morning as two phone lines with DSL and a ViaSat connection all went down due to severe weather. 2″ of rain in about 30-minute. The precipitation path loss took down … Read More
An exposition today on what the Fed rate cut, market reaction, woo-woo, and time machine research have in common. Yep. This is one of those Twilight Zone kind of discussions that sinks down into the part of being human that we mostly don’t visit often.First, though, in addition to our usual daily dose of market … Read More
Just announced by the Federal Reserve: “The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. In light of these risks and in support of achieving its maximum employment and price stability goals, the Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower the target range for the federal … Read More
Breaking: Federal Reserve just poured $120-billion into the repo market. Light ’em up, markets! Facts and Folly The late Dr. Carl Sagan summed it up best in the book titled “The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark.” Our problem today is we are living in an asylum populated by addicts hooked … Read More
Preliminary data first, so you have data to stand on when we get to the weather-related angle: Although we could see a “snap-back rally” this week in markets, the longer-term outlook seems to be firming up: We would not be surprised to see stocks collapse to below 2,000 on the S&P and that infers a … Read More
Regardless of the happy-talk about how COVID-19 will (do this, or that, or some other thing), there’s a lessor in here about Lawyers, Lefties, Greedsters, and Cowards that warrants in-depth study. This being Social Studies Sunday…. Ure hit one of his favorite online suppliers this week, looking for a refill of some shop consumables. 1/16th … Read More
There’s a great deal to be learned from reading deeply into adventure novels of current and by-gone eras. For one, it’s a way for young people – especially men – to get to know and think like other men. The good, the bad. So, it was a huge loss this week when one of my … Read More