Jobs, Trade, and Ugly Virus Projections

We again confront the age-old Editor’s Paradox:  Do we begin with what’s  important or do we lead with  what’s urgent?

Not that hard to answer, since I’ve been telling you what’s important all week.  We’ll change-up a bit and lead with  urgent instead.

We have three data points to consider:  The Jobs Data, Fresh International Trade data, and a look at what could be a massive “goal line stand” that financial markets face today.

Jobs First

Just out from the Labor Department:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 273,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, government, construction, professional and technical services, and financial activities.

What matters most are the total number of people working.  And how many jobs were simply “made up” (being estimated into existence in the CES-Birth Death Model).  That figure was 143,000 jobs and (sorry, but almost laughably) the number of hospitality jobs jumped 70,000…pass the pipe, right?

Total number of people working in February?  Only went up 45,000 month-on-month.  And this after making up 143,000 in the CES BDM.  Sheesh.

Second Number:  Trade

First little glimpse of what’s going on with International Trade, but do remember this is a  lagging indicator.  A ship offloading in California today will not show up in data until the end of March, which means at this time in April we’ll see the current situation miles distant in the rearview mirror.  Here’s what it looked like in February:

Exports, Imports, and Balance January exports were $208.6 billion, $0.9 billion less than December exports. January imports were $253.9 billion, $4.2 billion less than December imports.  The January decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $2.6 billion to $67.0 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $21.7 billion.  Year?over?year, the goods and services deficit decreased $8.5 billion, or 15.8 percent, from January 2019.  Exports increased $2.3 billion or 1.1 percent. Imports decreased $6.2 billion or 2.4 percent.

There’s a related set of numbers – more current, but also with more intricacy to interpret:  The bi-weekly Association of American Railroads report:

“U.S. railroads originated 927,084 carloads in February 2020, down 7.3 percent, or 73,058 carloads, from February 2019. U.S. railroads also originated 997,683 containers and trailers in February 2020, down 8.9 percent, or 96,897 units, from the same month last year. Combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations in February 2020 were 1,924,767, down 8.1 percent, or 169,955 carloads and intermodal units from February 2019.

“Total U.S. rail carloads in February were down 7.3% driven almost entirely by coal. Excluding coal, carloads in February were down just 0.8%, their best showing in a year,” said AAR Senior Vice President John Gray. “In February, 10 of the 20 commodity categories we track saw year-over-year carload gains, the most in more than a year.”

Dow Futures Down 745 Earlier

That’s how much futures were down a few minutes after these numbers.  In our Aggregate Index work which throws multiple markets into the blender,  here’s the technical problem in a nutshell:

In Elliott Wave terms, there’s an elevated risk of a downside breakout next week if the FedGov, IMF, G20, and whoever else, can’t staunch the bleeding by the close today.  We don’t give investment advice, but scheduling shrink-time if you’ve got a compunction to “buy the dips” might be time and money well-spent.

C19: 2-Million Cases by July 4th?

We’ve been surprisingly close in our projections since January on this mess.  So, as we roll into summer and cases continue to spread, what’s the potential global impact?  Say “Not pretty!”

If you’re looking for an easy way to ball park cases (and deaths) we can take current day-over-day change rates (which are semi-stable now) and project these ahead 30 days.  Like so…

As you can see, the numbers are growing a bit – that’s worrisome.  On March 3, you could have taken cases times1.98 and projected 181,000 cases around April 3.  But from today, a month out, it’s projecting closer to 245,822 cases by April 6, or thereabouts.

When you visualize the chart of this in your head, there are plenty of reasons for concern.  And why keeping your larder stocked and ready for a month-long sequestration ain’t a bad thing to plan on.

Of course, consumer discretionary will implode with people forego all kinds of spending to make ends meet, but that or potential death seems a simple-enough choice.

The “Mengele Question” Lingers

We don’t often invoke the name of the memory of the  “Angel of Death,” Josef Mengele, around here. But there is an odd, lingering data “swirl” – for lack of a better term – around the notion of the racial/ethnic selectivity of COVID-19.

As one reader posited in the comments section, we know there are two types now (it has mutated into L-type and S-type), but curiously the highest mortality rates are among Asian men with high ACE2 cell densities.

This was noted in a paper (not yet peer reviewed) “Single-cell RNA expression profiling of ACE2, the putative receptor of Wuhan 2019-nCov.

Now, let me roll the clock back for you to the “pre-fame days” of the virus.  In a January 23 UrbanSurvival post I asked whether this virus would turn into “Epicanthic Warfare (leading into) WW III.”

As we are seeing bio-selectivity, even though it’s ACE2 receptors instead of targeting based on epicanthal (Asian eye) genes, I think there’s a “great big OBVIOUS question” about the source of this virus.  Come on, from the Wuhan-area bat population?  Color me continuously skeptical and still collecting data.

But, sometimes – every once in a while – I look at the racial selectivity of the virus and wonder “Could there be differences in threat perceptions by U.S. leadership (like Trump) who may know more than is being said about the risk groups?

Going forward, keep your antennae up on the racial composition of victims.  The odd linguistic and attitudinals suggest a data gradient may be known by some, but not all.

Over time, it should come to light, if such a gradient exists.  Should that be the case, blame-placement could set off mushrooms globally as either cauterization or paybacks are delivered.

Again, not conclusive, and only barely discernable variances in concern.  In the hyper-complexity of modern times, the small moves and positions of other players at the Big Poker Table of Life may be usefully studied.

Foreplay to the Blame Game may be showing in Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says China not forthcoming initially on coronavirus, setting prevention efforts back.

Speaking of Not Understanding Politics…

Pay attention to the Washington Examiner story “Senate Intelligence Committee leaders ‘very concerned’ about John Durham review, Joe DiGenova says.”  We figure they should be.

Also, if you know how to use Google Trend data sets:  SHE’S BAACK…  Hillary Clinton is coming up in our data studies:

The Deep State is hard at work positioning her.  See stories like today’s “‘Not that I haven’t thought about it’: Hillary Clinton denies throwing lamp or book at Bill ” and “Will a ‘Hillary’ documentary change hearts and minds? Maybe not, but it will enlighten.”  This last, appeared in  USA Today, which you will remember was one of the cornerstone Hillary newspaper endorsements.  Seems they still have a pipeline and are taking a most sympathetic approach.

The Biden-Clinton ticket idea – with Joe getting thrown under the bus after the election – is not a bad novel plot, you think?

In Brief

Fed’s in with $89.607 billion in repo’s this morning.  This puppy’s going down.>600 at the open, looks like.

Off to Peoplenomics research….more here Sunday.

Write when you get rich,

43 thoughts on “Jobs, Trade, and Ugly Virus Projections”

  1. George,
    Source of the virus? That is a funny one. And an interesting one.

    I have a friend who runs a funeral home. I remember chatting with him 3 years ago while at a church retreat. He said he had a recent visit from some officials from some agency. I have to ask him about this soon for clarity on who it was.

    They asked him “how many can you handle?” which I think refers to his funeral home’s throughput or “run-rate” as part of their questions. I am not imaging this situation – but I do need to qualify this again with him. I do remember him stating this wasn’t some typical census of funeral homes but more one-off and with directed questions.

    Perhaps it was homeland security just doing their due diligence of something like this virus eventually happening – but this is still way less than the Flu season. Your chart today is possibly indicative of another wave happening in the USA on top of the Flu which can impact mortality rates.

    Just had to pass this one on.

    I’ve had this feeling that the markets were swung on macro moves with Trump in office ever since he started the job. The post-election run up, the China tariff trade-wars, etc. With Trump and Xi in force on both sides, there has to be some level of cooperation on this deeper than is shown publicly. And getting their high-finance friends in and out of the market swinging as it is – why not throw out the “planned” virus right at ATH’s last month? That’s the perfect time to position the billionaires on the short-side. I don’t think this is about people eating bats in Wuhan. I think these type things have more control over them. But the tariffs were about jobs, this one is about lives. If this was planned, it is truly evil.

  2. “The Biden-Clinton ticket idea – with Joe getting thrown under the bus after the election – is not a bad novel plot, you think?”

    ????? Do you think Biden has a severe depression issue that everyone should be concerned over?

    • Stu,

      Please publish a snail mail address to send a contribution to. Sorry Paypal and I don’t get along. Literally I get a message that says something has gone wrong.

      You always complain about viewers that don’t send a contribution… is not because some viewers haven’t tried. How about drop box where we can do it the old fashioned way?


  3. Have you thought about the impact of Turkey pushing migrants into Europe on the spread of COVID-19? I would suspect that this group would be highly susceptible to spread due to close proximity, poor conditions, etc. Erdogan has already been using them as a weapon, but it seems like this infection could make them WMDs.

  4. What if China created the virus and is using it against its own people as population control. Less mouths to worry about feeding.

    • Ed, China cannot afford population control. They reversed the one-child policy to gen-up new population for their needed GDP growth number. The one or two possibilities are CN wanted a virus that they could use against another country and it got out accidentally – or the US created it and injected it into CN as part of a huge macro-level market manipulation (at the All Time highs). This seems at the heart of either super-power and either accidental or well-timed release occurred.

  5. George,

    I wonder if the current hysteria is in part due to this being the first crisis of confidence for millennial day traders and non-stop bloviating from the news-social media disinformation complex?

    Laying low till the fever breaks.


  6. The thought of Biden-Hildebeast, good Lord.

    By the woodpile is a stack of gnarly, twisted, knotty stuff needing splitting that I usually go to when I need to let off steam. I think I’ll spend some time there this morning.


  7. George, since you mentioned the virus/WW III….

    Latest update at The Age of Desolation site. Is war next?

    If the Chinese join the Iranians in accusing the United States or Group of Seven Nations of attacking China with a bio-weapon, then war will be the inevitable next step.

    I have written about this in detail in Nostradamus and The Third Age of Mars, The Complete Prophecies of World War III.

    Since the news is following my narrative timeline precisely, readers who have not bought or read the book are wasting their time coming to this Website and waiting on Updates from me. Doom is here. Tomorrow, some people will be finding out firsthand.

    • Mabus is the third antichrists according to Nostradamus.

      M. Obama

      maboma ‘s

      as in [Mr]s. M [ichelle] Obama

      Hmmm interesting…. never noticed that before. Since the name ‘Barak’ Means Lighting and Lighting in Arimaic is 0rph. That’s right with a zero in the start of it… In Luke 10 Jesus said he saw Satan fall like lightning from Heaven. The world Like in Hebrew is: damah (coincidently the word adamh means (earth or ground) fall “like” lightning to the earth or damah to adamah .

      the damah in Hebrew defines as: Equal to, Image, is a refrence to Adam when refencing Eve.

      hmmmm…… Michelle Obama’s name makes Mabas, his name means Lightning, she is the likeness of him as his wife in the same reference as Adam and Eve…. maybe she is the Third Antichrist???? hmmmmm adds up.

      The Antichrists’ won’t be tempted by women… often thought it would be a woman not a man. Or a homosexual….. but most likely a woman. Do to the fall of man being blamed on Eve. the first one who took a bite of the forbidden fruit. so it would make sense if it started with a woman it would end with a woman.

      The Conquering of Istanbul (Constantinople) will mark the rise of the Korans “anti Christ” called the “Dajjal”. Some Muslim Apocrypha references say that it is a Dark Woman or a Dark Man who displays femininity.

      Kinda trippy…. especially if Joe picks her as his Running mate. Most women just love Michelle.

      she would certainly be one helluva trojen horse.


      well, off to lift some weights…… cool.

      • I have long believed that Satan is feminine, and God is masculine. It would explain a lot of things…

  8. Your projections of the virus are not taking into account the exponential curve that all epidemics take. We have started that curve, that is why your percent changes are increasing. Los Alamos laboratory ran an analysis on this and determined it was doubling every 2.4 days unchecked. The million mark may easily be passed in early April.

  9. G –
    They are HERE !

    The greatest lies and frauds ever perpetrated on Human civilization – Monotheism #1

    February 29th – NASA Stereo Observation cameras picked up a HUMONGOUS “Ezekiels Wheel” UFO crossing our SUN for 4 seconds, before Camera turned off, began working again after the UFO had passed. This thing is CLEARLY bigger than Mercury, Venus and Terra! Looks like a circle with a cross in it. Hidden Underbelly 2.0 has posted for world to see..

    Its all FAKE – all of it – The Nazi’s knew ..Fire & Ice – World Ice Doctrine = eternal conflict between fire and ice. Thats where all the greatest scientific, engineering, physics thinking comes from – ALL of it – Schauberger et el – its all in the basement at Wright Patterson.

    These cats are still laughing at Einsteins B.S.:
    Schumann, Otto Hahn, Xaver Dorsch -deep under ground base tech/Bechtel, Oskar Heil, Schauberger’s Repulsator -anti gravity machine.
    They all knew..there is No Determinate Reality and we have a extremely tenuous grip on our Reality.

    World Ice Doctorine = Eternal Conflict between Fire & many icy moons has Earth absorbed and been destroyed by in the process ? Is Earth a small “fire star” or icy moon/planet? Corona virus seems kinda silly now..

    • “February 29th – NASA Stereo Observation cameras picked up a HUMONGOUS “Ezekiels Wheel” UFO crossing our SUN for 4 seconds”

      this is interesting but not surprising.. we have read in so many places where the return will happen with the downfall of mankind.. I don’t know about you but I hate to read the news.. everything is bad news.. war rumors of war.. pestilance and disease.. hate everywhere hate.. its totally sad.. it makes you sad to the point that you want to weep at how we treat our neighbors.. our friends and our loved ones..
      the stories about the beginning of changes in 2012 the return of the watchers the war of wars.. every single forseer has seen the the events..

      I don’t know where I read it now.. but a short time ago I read an article that was saying that in the last ten years there has been a significant increase of transmissions from the black knight sattellite… and that it actually changed course to avoid contact with a metiorite..
      the book of enoch and the watchers comes to mind with the return of enoch .. and his awakening only to weep at how mankind has become..

  10. Notice how steep the lower Bollinger Band is. Could the markets walk the line down big-time? Not sure, my recent trading has exhausted me & I am resting.

  11. George, again, an excellent economic piece today.
    Regarding the blame game, and Pompeo, do keep in mind that the Trump Administration were the ones who failed to acquire enough test kits. (On the level of forgetting to put gas in the car! Simply embarrassing, even to Brownie.) And Trump himself is out there encouraging virus infected people to go to work. And your Deep State is just a make-believe defense when anyone is unkind enough to point out their incompetence or corruption. Best, Mike.

  12. Biden/Clinton (77/72) ticket isn’t likely. Someone younger. Not a crazy youngster, not gay, not white male, not white unless female. That’s the profile. Can Joe handle that profile? I am sure he can; he is a snake.

  13. George, the way you are displaying some tables, like the “Projected COVID-19” is not working well for me. On my Windows PC, even if I have Firefox zoom to 150% the numbers and lines are fuzzy and hard to read. I can sort it out but would appreciate something easier to read. The data is important to me. Thanks.

  14. Consider, if you had a highly effective bio-weapon, what do you need? A vaccine to protect your own people, but something that gives you some plausible deniability.

    It can’t work perfectly, but as long as it protects the young and mid-life adults, so what if you lose a few geezers or folks with health issues?

    What if this was their attempt to make a bio-weapon vaccine and it’s blown up on them?

    If they know they did it to themselves, what’s their motive to cook anything else off?

    • Perhaps rather then making propaganda hash and demonizing China they had took the precautions other countries took we wouldn’t be so far behind the curve, rather then leading from the front what we heard was fake fake news its only the flu, the fake news scam is wearing thin its time to show some leadership if even that’s suspect or even possible.We ain’t seen nothing yet wait until it really hits for then the finger pointing will really take center stage!!!

    • “Consider, if you had a highly effective bio-weapon, what do you need? ”

      Marlowe.. if it was designed as a bio weapon ..1st. You have a vaccine .. then in case of mutation such as this . You have it designed with a built in maximum life expectancy.. having a virus just laying around for the future occupiers to get infected with would not be sd mart at all .

  15. …Really skeptical regarding a racial component. COVID-19 is tearing through Iran and Italy. Iranians and Italians are both Caucasian. Until proven otherwise, I’m going to take the Occam’s Razor approach, and say that a town the size of Greater NOLA or Grand Rapids, Michigan (which in the U.S. has a population of between 200k and 300k, but) which in China, shelters 11.5mln, is more-likely to have spawned the massive problem, simply because of population density and proximity. What I don’t understand is: With a festi pass-through of 4mln people, why aren’t cases and deaths much higher and even more-disbursed within China than they are?

    • Tearing thru Qom – oldster central in Iran. Word is D.S. jumped all over this thing breaking out/lose in China – notoriously bad security at Wuhan BSL4 lab. Spread a “tweaked” variant in Iran – Italy is the on the ground guinea pig for vaccine lab. Also where Barr and friends were recently gathering info/intel on Russia gate perps, operatives – Deep State Blowback.

    • Trying to figure out whether to make a trip to France at the end of the month, I started calculating some ratios:
      If the USA had the same proportion of COVID19 cases as China, we’d have 22,000 cases.
      If we had the same proportion as Iceland, we’d have 41,000 cases.
      If we had the proportion as Italy, we’d have 20,500 cases.
      If we had the same proportion as Sweden, we’d have 4500 cases.
      If we had the proportion as France, we’d have 3200 cases.
      As of the latest count I could get, the USA has 260 cases.
      So, are we safer or merely slow to get to our turn? At the age of 77, I have a strong urge to stay home! Staring at the data, I don’t see any patterns other than tourism and business travel. Most of the Swedish cases are Swedes who were tourists in Italy. Iran’s cases seem to have come from returning Chinese workers. Iceland is, for the moment, a puzzle.

      Most numbers came from
      I took Sweden’s numbers from

  16. “The Biden-Clinton ticket idea – with Joe getting thrown under the bus after the election – is not a bad novel plot, you think?”

    Excellent plotline! Ya don’t suppose Bill has a control file on Creepy Joe, which could somehow find its way to the FBI and the NYT next year, now do you…?

  17. Years ago when my wife started getting tumors in her breast she took Agricultural Hydrogen Peroxide 37% at the rate of 60 drops per day until they went away. She had a biopsy once to determine that is what they were. She said she was told that Hydrogen Peroxide alkalized her blood. Viruses can’t live in alkalized blood. Cold viruses, smallpox, herpes, hepatitis, HIV, etc.

    I didn’t necessarily believe her, but what worked for her was good in my opinion. I got a pneumonia shot about a month ago and came down with some kind of respiratory problem four days later. I had symptoms for the past month after taking everything imaginable. Finally I remembered the hydrogen peroxide story (she passed away a few years back is the reason I forgot) and took a teaspoon full in a glass of cranberry juice for three days in a row. Each day I felt better. Today I’m symptom free.

    I would like to think this will work on the corona virus. Who knows? A doctor won’t tell you. I’ll guarantee the gov’t won’t tell you, and why would the pharmaceutical industry tell you? So, if anyone gets CV, and tries this, tell George, and let us all know how it works out.

    • “my wife started getting tumors in her breast she took Agricultural Hydrogen Peroxide 37% at the rate of 60 drops per day until they went away. She had a biopsy once to determine that is what they were. She said she was told that Hydrogen Peroxide alkalized her blood. Viruses can’t live in alkalized blood. ”

      I have seen this myself.. years ago.. I use to make cleaning chemicals.. etc.. anyway one of the hospitals needed a cleaner to remove mold spores from the grout in the surgery.. the cleaner we were going to formulate was with high strength hydrogen peroxide..
      there wasn’t any anywhere for a quick mix.. but the gentleman at the center told us about a farmer that bought barrels of the stuff.. we ventured out to see if he would part with a barrel.. and he did of course.. a beautiful farm.. anyway my curiosity was up and I asked why he used so much.. he then started to tell us that he was on a trial from the mayo clinic that they had been studying the miracle waters of lourdes france.. and discovered it was high in natural hydrogen peroxide.. so since he was given three weeks to live he got on that program to test the theory out..
      they would take a couple of drops of food grade hydrogen peroxide..( not the crap you buy for cuts etc.. it has to be food grade) and would add it to a cup of water three times a day.. I then had to ask.. so how is it working for you.. his response was he had been given three weeks to live twenty years earlier.. and he would put a cup of it in his cattle tank every time he had to refill it.. he had the best looking cows I have ever seen.. he said it helps with his vet bills etc.. I am sure he is gone now he was an old man then and that was almost forty years ago now..
      you can find testimonials on this everywhere the same as you can with food grade bicarbinate of soda..
      Does it work.. who knows..
      ( I say if anyone wants to try it then try it at your own risk….But be extremely careful if you choose to try it.. I am no doctor but we used hydrogen peroxide to kill a grout that was filled with a fungus.. and I have seen it used to bleach hair.. it is dangerous.. so is ozone salt and bicarb..)

      we have read stories about how people have lived long lives drinking wine.. but how many know that grapes well read the reports on it..

  18. I read this today this morning and its for someone on here…

    “If not for the beast with in we would be castrated angels.” Herman Hesse


    They have no will of their own and they can not create anything. Yes Angels are pretty and perfect…. but they can not make anything of their own will. They cant even put two musical notes together let alone come up with an even partial bad joke. lol

    We are way higher up the ladder of progression. They know that. you wouldn’t bow down to a tick on the back of a dog and worship it would ya?? And a Tick on the back of a Dog has a will of its own and is higher in the ladder of Species than an angel just because it has its own free will. lol

    this isn’t Angel Hate speech… just proper perspective.

    • If I recall properly, Satan is a fallen angel. If it cannot create, only manipulate, to achieve its goals (but how does one achieve? interesting…), I can only imagine the frustration. Again, it would explain many things…

  19. CoVID-19 is creating enormously complex nation-state dynamics, both internal and external. Tensions are rising – among populations, between economies and among peer competitors regionally and globally. The timeline going forward for this plague, and how humanity deals with it’s effects and after affects, will chart the path forward for the 21st Century and beyond. Rational minds are most valued at this time. Flamboyant politicians on all sides must be bridled and muted, avoiding the Caustic rhetoric that often emotionally fuels unnecessary and costly military conflicts.

  20. HAWAII HAS IT! The ‘Grand Princess’ off California has 21 cases of COVID-19 confirmed aboard. One passenger who debarked at Honolulu has now tested positive as the first case in Hawaii now. Now we wait to see how many locals the ‘silent spreaders’ at the ports have infected. Give it two weeks and I believe we will see cases on the four ports here that the ship visited. There goes the Hawaii tourist industry. Stick a fork in it.

    My nebulizers arrived today. Colloidal silver in stock.

    • 51 new cases in Canada. One traveller got the virus in Las Vegas then came home and used public transit in Toronto for a few days before becoming I’ll with Clovis 19.

    • “If a person survives a C19 infection, is that person then immune to the virus?”

      great question…….My guess is similar to the flu.. you will build up antibodies but NO.. you would not because it is constantly mutating..

    • No one seems to know for sure. I read one report out of china that a previously ‘recovered’ person was re-infected. Don’t know if it was a bad original diagnosis, or what. Only time will tell what the lasting effects are for ‘recovered’ people.

    • According to Chris Martenson you can be reinfected with the virus and it’s worse. You run a good chance of experiencing a cytokine storm effect where your body starts attacking itself which, without good medical supervision, can be deadly.

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