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Markets Hold for Fed Mins, S/W Time Machine, 1st of Four Heavy Econ Papers

This morning on Peoplenomics, the summer economics projects finally start coming out of the barn.

The New Navigators is the first of four connected papers looking at succession, economic lifecycles, regional instability, big-city sustainability, and whether the familiar long-wave “clock” may be an output of the economy rather than a fixed period. Then we run the News Compressor through the usual geopolitical, economic, weather, health, and AI trouble spots.

And for the deepest-work section, we fire up the latest Over-the-Horizon Software run. The interesting result isn’t a new prediction date — it’s that the existing September and late-October timing ridges held while the underlying evidence changed. That is exactly what you want to see from an experimental future-forecasting instrument: less fortune-telling, more measuring whether tomorrow is beginning to leave fingerprints on today.

Like, oh, the Fed minutes might, after lunch.

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35 thoughts on “Markets Hold for Fed Mins, S/W Time Machine, 1st of Four Heavy Econ Papers”

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  1. just tell me your new can kicking date. i cant read stuff i dont understand . AI language is above my level of intelligence . im old fashioned

    • Len: there are really four time machine projects going on at the same time (though they share code in places). Using two commercial AI providers. I will keep this simple:
      the high-level runs look at news, gov officials, and so forth:What moved (summary vs 17 Aug baseline)

      Ridges: PERSISTED (Sep 15 dominant; Oct 31 secondary). Effective-root counts stable-to-slightly higher via continued Black Sea and transport atoms.
      Field mass: small incremental support from ongoing mutual Black Sea disruption and soyoil substitution confirmation; not a scoring-core change.
      Channels: GENERAL_NEWS / WFA / GOV (energy/climate/food) remain UP; PMFS directional consistency on later Hormuz normalization; HQV and most human-predictive still MISSING / BASELINE_INSUFFICIENT.
      SWFS: active but bridge-gated (no OTH mass).
      Strongest boring explanation remains physical/geopolitical propagation (constrained chokepoints ? freight/fuel/food substitution lags + El Niño). No pre-news human/query lead credit awarded.
      Other than the Aug 27 “leadership’ issues and Sept 14-17 range (which is a ridge top, not a spikey point on a chart) pay particular attention to this: HQV and most human-predictive still MISSING / BASELINE_INSUFFICIENT.
      HQV is Human quantified values. A predictive “source” does not issue daily (like the nonstop flow of news and shit – they come out only so often. For these, we need time for the predictions to fill before fully loading into time 1 or time 2 machines. The more intereting point was what I put in the appended technical note this morning:
      ADDED NOTE TECHNICAL NOTE:

      There is a reason we do not include a large corpus of “predictions” and especially “seers making date calls” in these experimental runs. It’s because of multiple factors, such as the predictor class of folks don’t do hourly updates (like news flows_) and there’s not a lot to draw on.

      In fact, our present “pre-tasker, predictive” is not really finding much outside of regular news flo0w – and that in itself is interesting. Are “predictors” simply good early news state change receptors? Worth asking because as of this morning we have:

      PREDICTOR FIELD: AMBER / SELECTIVELY HARDENING
      Dominant state: prolonged conflict + economic/market stress.
      Secondary state: political turnover, unrest and regime instability.
      Tail risks: energy/infrastructure disruption and a looser environmental/disaster cluster.
      Evidence that the predictor channels actually lead ordinary information: still LOW / BASELINE INSUFFICIENT.

      What this means – in practical terms – is that temporal referential work is flowing largely from news and information flows, government outlooks, and so forth. NOT from a (or a group_) of seers and predictors saying specific dates.

      So, if nothing else other than a fancier news aggregation tool, the OverTheHorizonSoftware project will at least help us sort out whether there is a time-stamped, machine-learnable system to get at the future. And if not, then it’s a move toward less reliance on (non-news-driven) intuition.

      So your simplified view (no math required!) is:

      Aug 27 +/- leaderships and challenge or change (could be anywhere)
      and S3ept 15 +/- which could be from anywhere.
      The technical note is saying: Right now the predictions are older//stale// and being recast as “continuation of shit in motion” with no relaly firm dates attached. The Oct 31 hot area isn’t a ridge yet, and may be a processing artifACT UNTIL ITS NATURE AND SOURCES (ROOTS) COUNT IS HIGHER.

      • One more t5hing: BlinkLabNews runs are focused on next 7-days. OverTheHorizonSofstware.com is focused on longer-term work in the 1 week to one year steerable range for most users.
        If a new item said “Comet to impact Australia next week., BlinkLabNews would pick it up quickly but human reaction time is too slow (unless you jack a 747..) But OHTS at a year out gives you time to move to a different impact zone – like Calif.

        • thx george . you certainly went into detail . 35 years ago i figured out even before becoming a gold bull there is one thing runs this world . the $USD. today they are wacking it to keep everyone happy . the more things change the more they stay the same

      • Please summarize … I don’t want to read, and for some reason my brain won’t comprehend, computereeze AI output.

        Common English, NOT a bunch of math style computereeze! PLEASE

        In my college class finals your output written as final paper even if it had good context would have gotten at best a C, since it fails to summarize it’s conclusions in English in a coherent manner.

    • The Day after the election, to be prezact about it.

      Panic much on the ust twist this AM ? GOLD – to the Moon !
      BTC – Bid!
      Oil – looks pretty good to these tired red eyes well…did I mention Copper ?

      want a good sense what the treasury is willing to do to country to support his boss, I suggest you IMAGINE what the Bloke on the left (Bessent w/o Glasses) does to the Bloke on the right on a regular basis..https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LmrX!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F622b8356-9b20-4bb7-85de-8549b2b29023_634x423.png?

  2. GU : “… maybe the future is best left alone until it shows up …”

    Always ^ my inclination. Based on the inclinometer.
    Of course, your incline may vary.
    Egor of Fog

  3. “Today’s starts with an old guy wondering how much of a lifetime can be handed to the next operator. ”

    Excellent question and one I have looked at for some years. No real answer but we have attempted to pass off information, advice and personal items for years as our Golden Years dwindle off.

    Started years ago when we moved to Costa Rica. Gathered the Clan together and dispersed items collected over the years along with family photos. Kids loved it. Swapped photos and items among themselves.

    As we had sold a small house we divided the $$ left over, after subtracting cost, by number of family members. All got a check to save, pay down debts and so on. No Vacations or other BS. Big SMILES!

    We think that giving away what we can now is better than after we move on to The Happy Hunting Ground. Can’t see the smiles from there.

    So over the years we have given away photos, furniture, tools, advice and $$.

    This has helped each of the children and lightened what we have but no longer use. But the biggest reward was the SMILES and HUGS of the kids.

    By passing on what we can to the younger set they have learned from us and appreciate what we are doing. Hopefully this will follow on to the grandkids.. So far looking good!

    I do hope that this helps some ones thinking about the future and their children.

    Cheers.

      • Near San Martin de Rivas PZ (200 metros from the soccer field) on the river. House is for sale as returned to the USofA to help with our handicapped grandson. Miss it a lot and really miss our avocados.

        • send me info re your property. Have been involved in bien raices here for 23 years
          whatsapp 50683866400

    • Tinkerer (The) : all savvy IMO. We are thrust head-first into all the transition stuff, what with my Sis departing this mortal coil. My plan per discussions about such matters is engineer some win-win-win generation skipping. Lo and behold, our Kids are crazy responsible. What we give won’t buy a Lambo.

      I’d like to see them in a larger 4WD SUV but, once given, it’s none of my bidness. We once snorked as stipend probably funded a trip to Greece. It seemed to irk Mrs. E but, c’mon, what a great gift! These two are knocking down good pay but everyone can use extra.

      That’s me, formerly known as Grandpa, redesignated Bhapah by the Little Master. Due to family earthshake, the MN Clan is due in over the Labor Day Holiday. To have closure. Can’t.wait.

      E [Past Commodore, former Sailor] ~~~

  4. A random remark for the masses. The euphoria can’t hide moves in the bond market. It’s math, unless it becomes risk-off repositioning. That’s been absent, for a while, the retreat to Treasuries on sell-down-days. It means something. I assure you the TNX printing 4.7% means something. We are tip-toeing in the Rubicon kids.

    Back when I _did_ give advice (which this is not) it was less geared towards brass ring seeking than risk avoidance awareness. Most folks aren’t very nimble but we worked strategic. This, here, there and everywhere is _not_ advice, of any kind. Just a word to the Wise (from a member of the club)

    Egor

  5. g, I had to go and have a nap after reading today’s column. Whew.

    I really enjoyed “The New Navigators.” As someone who is in a similar position to you and fighting a difficult life battle that you are aware of, I am trying to pass on the facts of life to my son as I know and have lived them. You have a deeper understanding of AI and the future of it than anyone I follow based on what you have shared with us here on this site over the last couple of years and the books you have written.. I continue to share your thoughts with my son.

    I believe the most important thing we can leave our children is our values system. Not just the ones we preach but the ones we live every day. They witness how we treat others and I think it is how they will treat others.

    AI will be an integral part of their lives long after we are gone. We know AI can be used for good or evil purpose. Hopefully, they choose the former.

  6. Still don’t see any recent posts from Clif. In Clif’s ALTA analysis, there tended to be emotional tension building toward major release points. Is that equivalent to the inflection points you are seeing for 9/15 and 10/31? It would be interesting if other types of analysis sees those two days as something significant.
    Can Ure analysis predict an order of magnitude of the inflection points, maybe normalized on a log scale of 1 -10, or even a db scale ?

    • Good question — and yes, there’s a family resemblance (We are all interested in the Future!) between what Clif was doing with emotional tension/release and what OTH is finding as temporal ridges. I don’t want to step on Clif’s proprietary work. We’re off doing our own things anyway. The OHT project doesn’t involve lexicons or fining various levels of linguistics. It’s using ai to point at the web and look for data (mainly frequency) bulges – that’s a wide-open field that anyone with an ai (and intermediate tasking skills and py) can task. OHT uses a lot of the conceptual work that Grady, Mike, and I worked on with the NostraCodeus project and there’s a good deal of that arb’ed into the processing.

      What OTH can do is add its **own independent measure of signal pressure**: Is the language surrounding a future window getting more intense? Is the rate of change accelerating? Are multiple unrelated domains beginning to point toward the same period? And does that pressure coincide with one of our existing OTH ridges?

      That gets us closer to the **physics of how the world future works, but again without getting anywhere near Clif’s proprietary linguistic work.**

      Your second point is even better. Right now the 9/15 and 10/31 numbers describe **ridge prominence**, not predicted event size. I think we need to split those apart.

      **R — Ridge Strength:** how much future-reference material clusters around the date.
      **C — Coherence:** how many genuinely independent source classes agree.
      **M — Magnitude:** estimated consequential size of whatever the ridge represents.
      **P — Pressure:** whether the information field around the window is building, flat, or releasing.

      And yes, I like a logarithmic scale because a serious information discontinuity probably isn’t just “twice as big” as an ordinary one. A dB-style scale may actually be the cleaner engineering approach.

      So, for example, 9/15 might eventually read something like:

      **SEP 15 ±7 days — Ridge 20 dB | Coherence 5/10 | Magnitude 6/10 | Pressure: Rising**

      Those are example numbers, not today’s calculated values.

      The really interesting test will be whether completely different methods begin independently highlighting the same temporal windows. If OTH says September and October, market structure says September and October, predictive linguistics says September and October, and unrelated forecasting channels say the same thing — *then* we have something worth paying attention to.

      Good catch. I think you just added another instrument to the OTH dashboard.

      The subtle point of the OTH project is that “predictive arts” (remote viewing, the astrologers, prophecy types and such) are all classed as a group because the REAL focus of OTH is determining whether the predictor class has any better than a better future sensing system” than the rest of us. When I was doing my work on Delphia technique decades and decades back, that was merely polling influencers and decision-makers. Now, AI is easily compiling and making available that line of future metrology.

      If your head hurts? Clif’s work was/is linguistic change and OTH focus is hanging bit-bucket sap filters on a a site-specific list of websites.

    • the realms…”spirit world” , what ever we are calling IT today – is the source for the “Great Fall” = 9/22/26 (Fall Equinox) info. No dont know exactly who or what, but those Orbs are sometimes briefly glimpsed flying off during the sessions.
      Does have a double meaning ? I have no idea, but info from that area is always Multi-Level.

      So periscope depth for time being, need to keep close eye…and tight Stops.

  7. Woke up last night with a very odd thought running through my little grey cells.
    “He is about to do something very stupid.” That was the thought. That’s it.., and it woke me up.
    I am not very prophetic – unless something ‘bad’ is about to happen. I’m pretty good at that. Pathetic ? Yeah, I have managed to reach that milestone a couple of times., but ‘prophetic’? Only when personal bad things are about to happen. ‘That’ inner voice, whether in the jungle, or on the street, has saved me many times.
    So.., what ever this means – “He is about to do something very stupid.” – I have no idea. But it was a very strong message. I believe it was a woman’s voice.
    [ Yeah – I know – could apply to anyone., but why tell ‘me’ ? ]

    “Stay Frosty !”

    • Trump is bordering on … well I will leave it unsaid except to note that he was SERIOUSLY THREATENING TO BOMB A LONG TIME ALLIE this past week!!

      Tump’s mental state is imo in rapid decline. Unlike in his life time of experiences he is no longer able to Bully His Way through this crisis of his own making (the War HE STARTED) and as a result his behavior, which may also be affected by increasing age related dementia, is becoming more and erratic. (25th Amendment territory?)

      Erratic thinking combined with erratic decision making, which those around Trump may be having an increasingly difficult time restraining, could easily result in Trump making decisions for actions that Israel is pushing for but which are NOT good for the United States … or the rest of the world.

      I think Trump is close to reaching a Breaking Point in his mind where he lashes out, like he did last week with our long term ally, since he is not getting his way.

      IMO Netanyahu is actively trying to direct him to do that in fact .. but do it in exactly the way that Israel wants. (note it is now ONLY THE US fighting Iran, Israel has pulled back and the War is now strictly a fight between the US and Iran!! … very calculated move by Israel after they got us into this War to begin with)

      Once the replacement aircraft carrier reaches the Arabian Sea AND the summer heat in the region breaks events may start to spin quickly as Trump’s anger at not getting his way leads him down some very bad decision alleyways.

      OH … and don’t forget, Putin is now facing HUGE pressure himself as Ukraine’s drone attacks grow bigger and more damaging. 600 drones against Moscow itself IN ONE NIGHT was nowhere in his or his planners worst scenarios when they started their 3 day Special Military Operation. (kinda like Trump’s expected 5 day War?) Putin is now getting lots of internal pressure to pull a sun or two out of his closet (in addition to the outside pressure from Israel on Trump to do the same) so as give some people on the other side a bit of a sunburn.

      Two major leaders who both started Wars, both thinking they would win quickly, and neither one has their War going their way. Both being worse and worse quagmires in fact.

      This fall looks to be “interesting” … and fall is almost here.

    • Take your pick. It has never been easier to find people doing stupid sh!t in full public view, expecting you to just sit there comfortably numb and take it.

  8. suddenly dawned on me . 30 years ago george was a tough smart good looking type with a beautiful wife . today he is a deep thinker with a very educated open mind , years of memory banks . but this is your house i should remember that, ill just wait for the crash any time . money always finds the best home

  9. also talking of leaders and elections . when are they in Israel ? they need to maybe change Be Be or his look alike . i hear there is a big undercurrent of dislike in a lot of jews . most want peace , work and a bit of good old fashioned laughter

  11. Watched El Cid last night… 1961. Chuck Heston and Sophia Loren and comical dialog. But… telling words from the Islamic invaders. Spain today.
    Stiks

    2 1/2 hours too long

  12. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/20/ukraine-war-briefing-russia-running-on-imported-gasoline-government-confirms
    ‘Russia has ?begun importing fuel, its government has confirmed, as a shipload of gasoline arrived from India. A fuel ?exporter in peacetime, Russia has been forced to turn to imports after ?Ukrainian strikes on ?its refineries and depots in response to the Russian invasion.’

    Will Trump follow Putin’s example?
    https://www.euronews.com/2026/08/19/russians-pull-billions-from-banks-fearing-kremlin-will-seize-savings-for-war
    ‘Russians pull billions from banks fearing Kremlin will seize savings for war’

    AI is becoming it’s own worst enemy, who needs Chatcrap?:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/08/19/gop-memo-warns-ohio-sen-john-husted-is-being-dragged-down-by-data-centers/
    ‘Republicans are warning that former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown’s relentless campaign to tie Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) to unpopular data centers could cost the incumbent his seat — and make politicians even warier of supporting data centers in the future.’

    Opposition to new data center construction has jumped significantly among both Democrats and Republicans, according to a recent survey by the University of Pennsylvania’s Annenberg Policy Center.

    https://whyy.org/articles/data-center-opposition-growing-survey/

    ‘The survey shows a 12-point jump in opposition in just four months, comparing two exact surveys conducted in the late winter and summer of this year. The earlier poll that surveyed U.S. adult citizens in February and March showed 49% opposed new data centers.’

    https://www.npr.org/2026/08/19/nx-s1-5937552/the-u-s-debt-tops-a-record-shattering-40-trillion-yes-with-a-t

    ‘The government continues to pile up debt at a rapid clip, as spending outstrips revenue by more than $2 trillion a year.’

    https://www.pgpf.org/article/any-way-you-look-at-it-interest-costs-on-the-national-debt-will-soon-be-at-an-all-time-high/

  13. By Friday I was storm prepped. Gas cans filled. Early Friday morning I drove into Hilo for Laser eye surgery for my drainage canals. That went well. Drizzling rain all day, and I was back home by noon to catch a UPS package delivery that required my signature… the new drone. Friday night was a bit creepy as the calm before the storm, watching it approach.

    Saturday morning it started to get breezy and rainy in bursts. I don’t worry much about wind because the Volcano Ranch here is rather protected. Neighbor house to one side is slightly higher than mine, and the lot on the other side is dense jungle that deflects the wind. Trees and bushes in the back yard also shelter from the wind. But this storm seemed to come in intense pulses of wind and rain, mostly from the southerly direction off the road where I am exposed. The car canopy was strapped to the truck underneath so it did not lift. The large tarp canopy alongside the house was well secured and protected the mowers. But it was a wet and wild windy day.

    LALA just barely achieved Hurricane status as the eye approached South Point and was visible on the NWS Radar. At 2:30pm on Saturday the power went off. I duly reported it to the electric company and they projected power would not be restored until Monday evening. So at the peak of the wind and rain I hauled the generator out of the shed and attached the wires to the breaker panel and powered the house back up. I took a shower after that soaking while there was still hot water. Listening to reports of outages and trees and poles down on the ham radio, and mesh network reports from the electric company were discouraging. The cable TV & internet went dead a few hours after the power.

    Our County Civil Defense director is a ham operator and he actively engages with the ham community and clubs to provide information dissemination and input. Volunteer operators from our club were manning the Emergency Operations Center radios on our local repeater and also a 40-meter shortwave NVIS frequency. They broadcast information from the County & electric company, and stood by to take emergency input calls from people needing assistance.

    I tried to text a friend in Honolulu and found the cellphone service was out also. Some local area calls were possible, but nothing off island. LALA was having a clipping as the worst of the storm impacted our volcanos wall. It looked like the eye was closing just before we lost internet. It was projected to reduce to Tropical Storm status shortly afterwards, but I have no idea of the impacts on Maui or Honolulu.

    So Saturday night was a boring night hunkered in with a battery radio and flashlights with the driving wind and rain most of the night. My area has established drainage channels on the lava rock, so flooding is not a problem in my immediate area. Sunday morning it let up and quieted down. Prepping pays off. We ran the generator as needed. It will heat the water tank with no other loads, and we charged up some essential phones and lights, and saved gas when we didn’t need it. The rest is just boredom, waiting for power & coms to come back. The ham radio had Civil Defense on the local repeater taking damage reports and requests for assistance. The mesh network was the most reliable of everything. Most nodes are solar powered and independent, so we chatted and shared situations on the common channel, while one ham posted electric company reports on a separate ‘Alerts’ channel. At one point I saw there were over 200 outage reports and over 65,000 customers without power. That is about one third of the population.

    Civil Defense reports all County and State offices will be closed Monday, and all DOE schools on the island also closed Monday. Then the cleanup and restoration begins. I am not optimistic that I will have power & internet back by Monday evening as projected. So if you have not heard from me for awhile, now you know why. I will be curious to see what happened on Maui and Honolulu later. We are without any external communications. I suspect it was nowhere near as bad as the Big Island got. They should thank us for knocking the stuffing out of LALA before it got to them.

    Monday comes and the road into Hilo from the south here is closed with downed trees and power poles. Running the generator at noon to recharge cellphones, lights, and ham radio battery, and keep the freezer and fridge cold. Spectrum CATV & Internet reports service may not be restored until Wed 8/19. That’s two more days, and I’m betting the power company will be at least that long. Hope we have enough gas for the generator to keep things running. And hope we can get more gas at the village just 4 miles up the road. Three stations there. Topped off the generator and took two empty 5-gal cans up to Pahoa village about 4:30pm. Village was dark yet and nothing open, but there were electric inspectors in the village, and a bucket truck arrived at the substation at the head of our subdivision. So they are working our area and there is hope for power soon.

    Tuesday morning planned a trip into Hilo which is mostly open, except State & County offices, parks, and schools closed yet. When the generator is down and no microwave available, I have a small propane burner that sits atop the small cylinder. So I can boil water for coffee & oatmeal, or fry some ham & eggs in a pan. We are not hungry. In Hilo we ran errands. Filled gas cans for generator. Found Pahoa village has power now just 4 miles up the road from us. Maybe our subdivision feed will get power soon. Spectrum CATV & Internet now say maybe Thur 8/20 we might get service restored. We notice that our cellphones are eating battery power even overnight when not being used. I suspect local cell tower may be down and we are connecting thru a distant tower. That will kick the phone transmitter into high power to respond to connection polling, even if not being used. So we are using backup batteries for the cellphones also. And connections are intermittent. Some text messages fail to deliver.

    Wednesday cabin fever took over. Brother and I decided to drive over the mountain to Costco, just to get out of the house. No power yet, but I disconnected the generator and enabled the grid line in case we got power back while gone. And sure enough, upon return we were lit up, AND the internet is working! Now we see the news of how devastated the south point are of Naalehu and Pahala are isolated. The highway washed out and totally destroyed on both ends of those communities and the county is struggling to get emergency services in to them.

    Now the news & weather service tells us another storm like LALA is brewing to the southwest and aiming for us this coming weekend. It may not make hurricane status and likely center pass south, but that means all that north end rain and wind will hit the Big Island AGAIN around Monday. I’m leaving the generator connected and in place until that one passes us. Now that I have internet connection again I will post this to a few relevant places so you know why I’ve been absent. Five days camping with no power, no internet, and spotty coms. Prepping pays! Aloha!

  14. I’m learning the simple joys of unlimited electricity, internet and news connectivity, fresh laundry. Dog tired with stress relief and wondering if I will sleep tonight, or still be awake come ‘publishing time’? And there’s people still much worse off than I down south in Ka’u district.

  15. yeah that was a tough time . get rest and prepare for this next one . fire and rain . neil young in Hawaii

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