Datafy
U.S. futures pricing pointed to a down day ahead for markets. Europe was down, Japan’s Nikkei bounced, and we think this centers on Russia using ballistic missiles on Ukraine; intending to harden-up their game. So, oil prices and “the big question” (Where can AI find another planet worth of $20/month subscribers to keep the AI bubble from imploding?) are likely key. That and next week’s “leadership issues” from our lookahead scans.
To go with coffee? The Philly Fed is first up:
The current general business activity diffusion index rose to 47.4 in August from 41.4 in July. 56.9% of the respondents reported an increase in general business activity, and 9.6% reported a decrease from July to August.
New UI Filings have us wondering if “the good times” may be topping:
And at 10 AM, it’s anagram time! Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). Last month? Month over Month dropped -0.2 %. We think slow erosion…
Over-the-Horizon Summary
Our Over-the-Horizon work keeps getting more interesting because the object is not to predict tomorrow’s headline. It’s to identify the larger ridges forming beyond the daily news cycle — where energy, food, finance, weather, politics, conflict and public behavior begin leaning in the same direction. Individual stories are mostly noise. What matters is whether enough independent channels begin pointing toward the same future pressure point. That’s what OTH is being built to measure.
And really, OTH is why we read news in the first place. Elections come two or four years apart, and for most stories the only useful reason to follow the daily information flow is to improve our estimate of the path between here and the next meaningful decision point. Otherwise, news junkies risk becoming people with either not enough else to worry about — or goals too small to keep their energy and output focused on something more useful. News isn’t the destination. It’s instrumentation for seeing what may be coming.
Our BlinkLabNews Compressor handles the week ahead. After that — at t+7 — we’re into OTH territory. Now blink!
News Compressor: ON
What has changed is a Russian overnight ballistic-missile and drone barrage on Kyiv and the surrounding region that killed at least 12–14 people and wounded more than 30–40, damaging residential buildings, a children’s hospital, a school, warehouses, and industrial sites while leaving tens of thousands without power. Vector: Escalating. Principal American consequence is intensified pressure on U.S. and allied air-defense interceptor supplies and any remaining diplomatic tracks. Sources: Ukrainian officials via AP, Reuters, CNN.
The way we figure it is this: Two sides are trying to work a gentlemen’s agreement over Ukraine wheat, and Russia just signaled they will bring out “heavy iron” if pressed.
U.S. and Canadian negotiators advanced toward a trade agreement that prompted President Trump to pause threatened 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods until Saturday, with both sides describing substantial progress but incomplete final documents. Vector: De-escalating. Principal American consequence is temporary relief for cross-border supply chains in autos, dairy, alcohol, and related sectors. Sources: AP, White House statements, Canadian officials. Wait! Did you hear it? Off in the distance: “TACO!!!” [Technical note: This is a soft TACO for now.]
The United Arab Emirates suspended all trade, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran after accusing Tehran of launching two ballistic missiles that targeted maritime traffic and fell into the sea (one inside UAE waters); Iran denied the claim. Vector: Escalating. But we figure the path to WW III breaking out of weekends is firming with (more) heavy iron in flight.
Only three independently verified changes met our Vital Four threshold; we don’t pad.
Inside Pages
Star Trek section. (Remember Chekov?) Let’s go through the news “Chekov…”
- Indiana recovery from multi-day storms and historic flooding continues with at least seven confirmed deaths, roughly 90,000 customers still without power, and a federal emergency declaration covering dozens of counties; officials target weekend restoration. Please share with the South!
- U.S. national debt crossed $40 trillion, with investors demanding higher rates and elevating borrowing costs. Not “chump change” – Trump change…
- President Trump nominated White House aide Dr. Heidi Overton to lead the FDA.
- California adopted the nation’s strictest home-landscaping rules for wildfire mitigation. Better late than….
- Meta faces ongoing landmark trial testimony alleging addictive design features targeting children.
- Five Americans were among those killed in a tourist helicopter crash in Kenya.
- ICC President Tomoko Akane and a senior prosecutor were sanctioned by the U.S. over Gaza-related investigations. Let me put Gaza aside: The U.S. Constitution doesn’t seem to include allowing a global mob rule court to second-guess domestic law. The ICC is another EU-like power grab front, as we figure it.
- Florida Republican primary produced Byron Donalds as gubernatorial nominee; progressive Angie Nixon won a Senate primary upset.
- Extreme heat advisories and heat-index values near 112°F covered portions of the South and Southwest. Beer alert in ATR section following.
- Unquenched & related: Drought and demand left water levels at the two largest U.S. reservoirs at record lows.
- Flash-flood or severe-storm watches expand eastward with the frontal system (window: next 24–48 hours). Odds: 55%.
- Former Fauci adviser David Morens pleaded guilty to a felony conspiracy charge related to COVID-origin records. If you think COVID was a clean-hands, all-science deal, better deep read this: Former Fauci Adviser Pleads Guilty to Trying to Conceal Covid-Related Records – The New York Times
- Ebola outbreak case count surpassed 5,000 (reported in morning digests).
- Israel conducted strikes in Syria, including an air base, amid continued Gaza operations.
12–96 Hour News Outlook (0 -> t+4)
- Additional Russian massed strikes on Ukrainian cities exploiting interceptor shortages (window: next 24–72 hours). Odds: 65%. Keep eyes on EU over expanding Russia showdown.
- Indiana power restoration reaches majority of remaining ~90k outages or major FEMA upgrade request (window: next 48–96 hours). Odds: 70%. (You can’t keep a good country down.)
- Heat-related emergency-room surges or new Extreme Heat Warnings expand in South/Southwest (window: next 24–48 hours). Odds: 50%. Why it matters: public-health load on already stressed systems. Observable that raises Odds: NWS upgrades; lowers Odds: earlier frontal relief. Evidence: current advisories and heat-index forecasts.
- UAE–Iran trade suspension produces measurable shipping or financial-flow disruptions visible in regional data (window: next 72–96 hours). Odds: 45%. Why it matters: secondary energy and logistics effects. Observable that raises Odds: port or banking notices; lowers Odds: quiet resumption signals. Evidence: UAE formal halt and Iran’s reliance on the corridor.
- FDA nomination of Overton advances to formal Senate paperwork or early confirmation timeline signals (window: next 48–96 hours). Odds: 40%. Why it matters: near-term regulatory direction on drugs and devices. Observable that raises Odds: White House formal submission; lowers Odds: delayed package. Evidence: presidential announcement.
Blink Lab Guidance — Personally Actionable
- Check current NWS and local emergency alerts for your county if you are in or near active flash-flood or heat-advisory zones; move vehicles and valuables from low-lying areas if rainfall is forecast.
- Inventory and secure any outdoor equipment or livestock feed that could be affected by residual flooding or extreme heat.
New Signal Rising
- Bond-market sensitivity to U.S. debt trajectory is prompting repeated Treasury actions to manage long-term yields. Supporting evidence: debt crossing $40 T and subsequent yield-management moves. Why it may matter: higher structural borrowing costs for government and private sector. Odds: 50%. Emerging pattern.
- CME FedWatch tool was down earlier (FedWatch – CME Group) Will it move markets when repaired?
Around the Ranch: “Lala” Hank on Prepping IRL
We don’t often take a reader contribution from our Comments section and elevate it to ‘Should Read’ material. But this morning’s AAR (after-action report) from long-time reader and friend Hank out on the Big Island is all kinds of useful.
If you don’t usually track our Comments there is often a lot to be learned and this is exceptional.
“By Friday (a week ago) I was storm prepped. Gas cans filled. Early Friday morning I drove into Hilo for Laser eye surgery for my drainage canals. That went well. Drizzling rain all day, and I was back home by noon to catch a UPS package delivery that required my signature… the new drone. Friday night was a bit creepy as the calm before the storm, watching it approach.
Saturday morning it started to get breezy and rainy in bursts. I don’t worry much about wind because the Volcano Ranch here is rather protected. Neighbor house to one side is slightly higher than mine, and the lot on the other side is dense jungle that deflects the wind. Trees and bushes in the backyard also shelter from the wind. But this storm seemed to come in intense pulses of wind and rain, mostly from the southerly direction off the road where I am exposed. The car canopy was strapped to the truck underneath so it did not lift. The large tarp canopy alongside the house was well secured and protected the mowers. But it was a wet and wild windy day.
LALA just barely achieved Hurricane status as the eye approached South Point and was visible on the NWS Radar. At 2:30pm on Saturday the power went off. I duly reported it to the electric company and they projected power would not be restored until Monday evening. So at the peak of the wind and rain I hauled the generator out of the shed and attached the wires to the breaker panel and powered the house back up. I took a shower after that soaking while there was still hot water. Listening to reports of outages and trees and poles down on the ham radio, and mesh network reports from the electric company were discouraging. The cable TV & internet went dead a few hours after the power.
Our County Civil Defense director is a ham operator and he actively engages with the ham community and clubs to provide information dissemination and input. Volunteer operators from our club were manning the Emergency Operations Center radios on our local repeater and also a 40-meter shortwave NVIS frequency. They broadcast information from the County & electric company, and stood by to take emergency input calls from people needing assistance.
I tried to text a friend in Honolulu and found the cellphone service was out also. Some local area calls were possible, but nothing off island. LALA was having a clipping as the worst of the storm impacted our volcanos wall. It looked like the eye was closing just before we lost internet. It was projected to reduce to Tropical Storm status shortly afterward, but I have no idea of the impacts on Maui or Honolulu.
So Saturday night was a boring night hunkered in with a battery radio and flashlights with the driving wind and rain most of the night. My area has established drainage channels on the lava rock, so flooding is not a problem in my immediate area. Sunday morning it let up and quieted down. Prepping pays off. We ran the generator as needed. It will heat the water tank with no other loads, and we charged up some essential phones and lights, and saved gas when we didn’t need it. The rest is just boredom, waiting for power & coms to come back. The ham radio had Civil Defense on the local repeater taking damage reports and requests for assistance. The mesh network was the most reliable of everything. Most nodes are solar powered and independent, so we chatted and shared situations on the common channel, while one ham posted electric company reports on a separate ‘Alerts’ channel. At one point I saw there were over 200 outage reports and over 65,000 customers without power. That is about one third of the population.
Civil Defense reports all County and State offices will be closed Monday, and all DOE schools on the island also closed Monday. Then the cleanup and restoration begins. I am not optimistic that I will have power & internet back by Monday evening as projected. So if you have not heard from me for awhile, now you know why. I will be curious to see what happened on Maui and Honolulu later. We are without any external communications. I suspect it was nowhere near as bad as the Big Island got. They should thank us for knocking the stuffing out of LALA before it got to them.
Monday comes and the road into Hilo from the south here is closed with downed trees and power poles. Running the generator at noon to recharge cellphones, lights, and ham radio battery, and keep the freezer and fridge cold. Spectrum CATV & Internet reports service may not be restored until Wed 8/19. That’s two more days, and I’m betting the power company will be at least that long. Hope we have enough gas for the generator to keep things running. And hope we can get more gas at the village just 4 miles up the road. Three stations there. Topped off the generator and took two empty 5-gal cans up to Pahoa village about 4:30pm. Village was dark yet and nothing open, but there were electric inspectors in the village, and a bucket truck arrived at the substation at the head of our subdivision. So they are working our area and there is hope for power soon.
Tuesday morning planned a trip into Hilo which is mostly open, except State & County offices, parks, and schools closed yet. When the generator is down and no microwave available, I have a small propane burner that sits atop the small cylinder. So I can boil water for coffee & oatmeal, or fry some ham & eggs in a pan. We are not hungry. In Hilo we ran errands. Filled gas cans for generator. Found Pahoa village has power now just 4 miles up the road from us. Maybe our subdivision feed will get power soon. Spectrum CATV & Internet now say maybe Thur 8/20 we might get service restored. We notice that our cellphones are eating battery power even overnight when not being used. I suspect local cell tower may be down and we are connecting thru a distant tower. That will kick the phone transmitter into high power to respond to connection polling, even if not being used. So we are using backup batteries for the cellphones also. And connections are intermittent. Some text messages fail to deliver.
Wednesday cabin fever took over. Brother and I decided to drive over the mountain to Costco, just to get out of the house. No power yet, but I disconnected the generator and enabled the grid line in case we got power back while gone. And sure enough, upon return we were lit up, AND the internet is working! Now we see the news of how devastated the South Point are of Naalehu and Pahala are isolated. The highway washed out and totally destroyed on both ends of those communities and the county is struggling to get emergency services in to them.
Now the news & weather service tells us another storm like LALA is brewing to the southwest and aiming for us this coming weekend. It may not make hurricane status and likely center pass south, but that means all that north end rain and wind will hit the Big Island AGAIN around Monday. I’m leaving the generator connected and in place until that one passes us. Now that I have internet connection again I will post this to a few relevant places so you know why I’ve been absent. Five days camping with no power, no internet, and spotty coms. Prepping pays! Aloha!”
Yeah, so about that…
Personally, I think what Hank ought to do is put up a humongous ham radio tower and hoist a monster gennaker off to the lee side of the Big Island and simply sail it south to a new location. But that’s just a “Texas answer” for fun… (For real “Island-moving” we’d fly a 150% genoa and simply sheet-out Oahu a bit…_)
Here?
We, lemme see:
- Lexus is in the shop – air crapditioner finally needed repairs (from 2005, Nada, so I can’t bitch too loud.)
- A hint of rain out into next week, but color us skeptical to say the least. We’re likely to end the month at 22.6 inches (Year to Date). By this point in August 2025 we were at 44.84 inches and in 2024 we were overflowing with 57.82 inches.
- Hydroponics-to-greenhouse broccoli transplants ahead today. Along with my giant bamboo children now 12 (plus) inches tall. (Bamboo might make a poor man’s schooner rig for the Big Island?)
Climate Message: Texas Beer-Stocking Emergency!
No shit? We’re definitely into “First two three turn to steam” territory now.
Off to reload the coffee and consider linguistic rehab.
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
Advanced Programmer and Wannabe Predictive News Emulators Note:
run(“rimshot.wav”)