Fearing COVID Collapse, Fed Cuts Rates

Just announced by the Federal Reserve:

“The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. In light of these risks and in support of achieving its maximum employment and price stability goals, the Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point, to 1 to 1?1/4 percent. The Committee is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.

The move should come as no surprise to UrbanSurvival and  Peoplenomics readers.  As I wrote in the Monday column:

“What little happy-talk there is today suggests that the US Federal Reserve is willing to lower interest rates at their upcoming meeting (March 19-20).  Personally, I rather expect they will move sooner than later.  My reasoning is that a sudden rate reduction (like this week) would have more impact than a reduction that is already baked-in-the-cake by incessant headlines and rewrites of the coming event.

Sidebar: If I were running the Fed models, that’s how I’d play it.  Admitting, however, that there is longer-term risk.  In that the Fed will not have lower rates as a response when we get to (my expected much lower) market levels.  Maybe COVID will rid us of central bankers and we can return to Congress managing money?”

No, we’re not running anything as complicated as the Fed’s Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, described here.  But, when the NY Fed dumped in $120 billion in repo’s this morning, buying the dip was day-trader candy.  This should launch wave 3 up in the bounce with the next problem being the overhead resistance in our analysis earlier in the day.

21 thoughts on “Fearing COVID Collapse, Fed Cuts Rates”

  1. Yo G-Dog, Cue the Bernank! Helicopter Money coming to a “hollowed out” US city near.

    Why the hell havent they QUARANTINED the West Coast port cities?? Might as well nuke SF at this point – we have redundant sites for all the important Tech Centers.

    In fact Ure should be banning Mark et al from this site till the Coronavirus fears subside, and the risk of Infection/ReInfection passes – lord knows the Virus can jump right off your computer screen and into your Eyeballs..

    Got Gold? cause the BCN knows ..

    FRN’s – 1 Billion Printed Every Second of Every Hour of Every Day..

    • bwhahahahhahahahahahah!

      such an optimism is a rare gem these days. You should write ads for polygrip! I can hear it now, “Not only does this sh!t keep you from biting you’re tounge when screaming at those damn kids on your lawn it puts more pucker in sucker for an all night love connection down at the bingo hall.”


      • “Not only does this sh!t keep you from biting you’re tounge when screaming at those damn kids on your lawn it puts more pucker in sucker for an all night love connection down at the bingo hall.”

        ROTFLMAO… I do have to write that one down Andy….

        Thats as good as the bee industries ad campaign a few years ago….. ” Enjoy Health eat your honey” then get into the health benefits of such activities and products…. LOL LOL..

        Or the Miller LIght commercial.. god I wish I could find it.. two guys sitting outside on lawn chairs watching the game.. two sweet ladies come up hand them a miller light and start massaging their temples and backs.. then the punch line..
        Or the guy at the bar.. in an imobilizer cast.. LOL hands up in the air turns to his buddy as they enjoy their miller light… and says.. ITS TIME….. LOL LOL LOL..

        god for the good old days with great commercials like that..

  2. And the market is heading back down as I write this. I guess the crack did not work too well. Quick, take another hit on the crack pipe. Very sad that the Fed has boxed itself in like this.

    • They wrote the rules long ago. The inevitability of today was written back then. You can have play money and have it evaporate before your eyes or you can be hemmed in with real money and keep your enthusiasm on a more even keel.

  3. Has it all started…..

    “San Francisco’s no arrest policy has anarchic results,” commented Human Events editor Ian Miles Cheong.
    The video shows Walgreens workers standing by helplessly as at least three people wearing face masks fill trash bags with various products.
    The thieves appear to make for the exit, as another woman walks in and yells to call the police.
    The brazen theft is blamed by some on California’s passage of Proposition 47.
    The law, which reduces theft of up to $950 in merchandise to a mere misdemeanor crime, was passed in 2014 as a means of reducing the incarceration of homeless people, but it’s pretty much sanctioned shoplifting.


    • They passed this same ordinance in Austin the last few months. Yes, it is designed for thieves to steal at will. Think of it: “At Will Employment”. Now, we have “At Will Theft.” And no, there is not a dam thing, you can do about it, as a business owner. Don’t call the cops, nor the city, they are NOT interested in hearing about the fact that you don’t feel like the LAW is on your side. Hate to break it to you; it isn’t. Don’t you wonder where they came up with that nice $1,000 number? Nice deductible when someone breaks into your car and steals your coat or other personal item. HEY, YOU PAY!!! Oh, and if the homeless person camps in front of your house or place of business, that’s okay, too, in Austin. Oh, if an illegal commits a crime that a citizen would be held in jail for, but they let the illegal out so they can’t be picked up by ICE; that’s a benefit for those poor disenfranchised illegals. Those illegals have a lot of benefits, no insurance fees, no license fees, no healthcare fees, no education fees, no rent fees, it’s really amazing what being an illegal can benefit you. Even no bail fees, now, too!!! I am waiting for a citizen to sue the county for being charged, fined, etc., for a suspected DWI, when an illegal just walks off into the dawn, and is never ‘charged again nor paid a fee’ for the privilege of spending a night in jail.”

      • Remember the rodney king riots…looters destroyed local shopping centers. Violence ,rape, burned out buildings.

        years later I watched an on the street interview done. Local residents complaining that it was hard on them because there weren’t any local shops and it was s real bitch having to drive as long distance to buy anything…

        Hmm.. I wonder why Ray’s market didnt reopen huh is store.. stole his livelihood raped his wife and daughter and beat him. Then burn his business to the ground. I still cant fathom why he wouldn’t want to reopen his store there.
        It’s the same for SanFran.. any news agency world wide has such a negative view of the city I sure wont ever go there. The same with st. Louis or chicago. I know each has a decent area.. it’s the same with DC. And many large cities. The world is spiraling out of control.

      • Way past time for local ‘criminal loving politicians’ that PASS these ‘common non sense ‘ laws to be HUNG by the neck till dead…a TEXAS custom ‘once upon a time’….so I’ ve read

      • “TEXAS custom”

        Back in the day wouldn’t they have been shot.. ..

        Thinking about the hanging judge.. he only hung a couple of people.. the thing was.. he made it a carnival.. popcorn peanuts..

        In some countries they use corporal punishment.. drunk driving..do it once get a fine do it again get a fine and a swat.. third time x number swats. In the mall televised march out bare your pearly whites or chocolate browns . Lay across a fluffy pillow out cones some ninja with his bamboo cane swack swack swack.. and a fine..
        For horrific crimes of violence.. well we do have the nafta treaty. Outsource their prison times the same way we do jobs..once a year proof of life.
        I am willing to bet money that you would see a drastic drop in crime..

    • It’s ABSOLUTELY civic-ordained shoplifting. Happened to a C-store about a mile from my house back in January. A horde of Amish about 25 in number swooped through the store, wiping out the store of all the Newports, Kools, and Sprites in stock, plus a bunch of scratcher lottery tix! It was all over the news; no arrests as of today even though the whole thing was caught on video.

  4. FWIW
    Went to bank today (PNC) to deposit paycheck and withdraw some cash. Head teller said could take deposit, but no withdrawals as their system was down, site wide and being worked on. Since paycheck drawn on Bank of America, I went to local branch. There I was told by manager that the same thing happened with BofA yesterday!

  5. what bounce ? you’ve already had it . ok whatever you reckon .. love George . minnup

  6. At this point, I probably aught to put a few seeds of popcorn in my shirt pocket. Just in case.

    this is not trading advice but I am sure Drug and Alcohol Rehabs will be very profitable in the next decade. just a hunch.

  7. From Drudge links:

    The chief of the Food and Drug Administration, Dr. Stephen Hahn, said the FDA has been working with a private company to get as many as 2,500 test kits out to labs by the end of the week. Each kit should enable a lab to run about 500 tests, he said. But health officials were careful about making promises.

    CDC test kits delivered to states and cities in January proved faulty.

    In Washington state, researchers believe the virus may have been circulating undetected for weeks. That has raised fears that there could be hundreds of undiagnosed cases in the area.

    An Amazon employee in Seattle tested positive for the new virus, The Seattle Times reported, citing a message from the company.

    Elsewhere around the world, the crisis continued to ebb in China, where hundreds of patients were released from hospitals and new infections dropped to just 125 on Tuesday, the lowest in several weeks. But the crisis seemed to shift westward, with alarmingly fast-growing clusters of infections and deaths in South Korea, Iran and Italy.

    Excerpted from AP


    Washington state has seen the largest surge of COVID-19 cases in the U.S., including several cases at a nursing facility. Nine people have died in Washington as of Tuesday evening. The total number of confirmed cases in the state stands at 27 as of Tuesday, up from 18 on Monday. Health officials said 231 people in the state are being monitored for the virus.


    What Happens in Vegas if No One Stays in Vegas?

    Analysts say most companies in the lodging, gambling or leisure industries, including cruise ship lines and amusement parks, know they will take a near-term hit to revenues, but have little idea of what will happen in the summer or beyond.

    What will happen, without a neutralizing agent for COVID-19 showing itself quickly, is $5 T-bone dinners and free shows. The LGL services (they are not “industries” because they produce nothing) will throw loss-leaders like crazy, and if that doesn’t work, the “Love Boat” and all its cousins will end up as synthetic coral reefs, and Vegas will again become just a petrol stop between Cali and SLC. I’m not familiar with Indiana Beach (amusement park) but I noticed a couple days ago that its owner was shuttering and scrapping the park, effective immediately. I seriously doubt it’ll be the last…

    While this is linked at Drudge, I’m not posting the link, because all info about this website is, well


    and there have been a number of both WHOIS queries and virusscan-related searches directed toward it. Caveat emptor…

    • “Washington state has seen the largest surge of COVID-19 cases in the U.S., including several cases at a nursing facility. ”

      OH MY…DAM it just hit me…

      NOW … Its just a wild crazy thought but….Washington is a port of entry.. a lot of times when I order stuff direct from china because it is cheaper.. Sometimes it goes through washington state.a lot of supplies are short shelfed..or drop shipped.. you order it they give you the window of two to six weeks for standard delivery.. the product actually hasn’t been shipped yet but in a warehouse someplace and is shipped to your facility or home with expedited shipping overnight two day you know the routine.. gloves and masks are some of these not to mention other vital healthcare needs. for some reasons my grandkids eat cold weather masks so I buy them a case at a time and rather than pay ten bucks for one at the sports center I buy them for twenty two cents and free shipping if I buy a case of them from china….. the products that get shipped to washington state and are delivered get delivered ten days sooner than if it goes to california and almost all expedited shipping goes through washington state port of entry… you can get it in less than two weeks at times..I have even gotten them in less than seven days..
      NOW with that in mind…..
      WHAT IF..
      the virus is a viral contact spore..that would explain the long lasting contact and transmition ratio’s..it then can be direct ,airborne or contact.. the spore would only come to life in the right conditions and be able to ride along on anything travel anywhere and be dropped anyplace…
      It would be like a ghost virus extremely difficult to detect and to fight against a perfect weapon for some sicko to play with….It would then affect people that haven’t had any contact with anyone or traveled anyplace and wouldn’t make any logical transfer sequence visible..
      AND… here is an ugly… what if it was a self replicating spore..That would make it even more ugly…because of the mutation factors from its original self….making it difficult to fight against..
      I wonder if that was what they were working on at the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory after they bought it from the USA .. Dam that would explain a lot to.. since everything we buy comes from there. that is where our industry lies on the chinese continent.. little is even checked what do they say five percent of incoming goods is actually checked.. we get so much that it is hard and would be a nightmare to even consider checking all cargo….and with the extended time for infection and transfer it could literally ride along anyplace…. it could be on a shelf near you right now and no one would know it…. I sitll think it was an oops.. but would explain why and how it traveled to the market..

  8. “If the U.S. only has 35 million masks and needs 3.5 billion, the math shows the U.S. actually has just 1% of the needed supplies. HHS could not be immediately reached to clarify whether Kadlec misspoke. The comment came minutes after World Health Organization officials called on medical supply manufacturers to “urgently increase production” to meet the global demand that is needed to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak rapidly spreading across the world. “Supplies are rapidly depleting. WHO estimates that, each month, 89 million medical masks will be required for the COVID-19 response, 76 million examination gloves and 1.6 million goggles,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of WHO”

  9. WHO officials said they don’t know how COVID-19 behaves, saying it’s not like influenza. They added that while much is known about the seasonal flu, such as how it’s transmitted and what treatments work to suppress the disease, that same information is still in question when it comes to the coronavirus. “This is a unique virus, with unique features. This virus is not influenza,” Tedros said Monday. “We are in uncharted territory.”

    Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s health emergencies program, said Monday that the coronavirus isn’t transmitting the same exact way as the flu and health officials have been given a “glimmer, a chink of light” that the virus could be contained. “Here we have a disease for which we have no vaccine, no treatment, we don’t fully understand transmission, we don’t fully understand case mortality, but what we have been genuinely heartened by is that unlike influenza, where countries have fought back, where they’ve put in place strong measures, we’ve remarkably seen that the virus is suppressed,” Ryan said. –CNBC

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