Trump Border Creds Tank; CFNAI Data

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Breaking Data First:  The Chicago Fed National Acitivity Report (CFNAI) is hot off the printer:

“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked up to –0.02 in June from –0.03 in May. One of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from May, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to –0.26 in June from –0.27 in May.”

After the data, Dow futures were up 70-points.

The rest of the week looks pretty bland.  We can see Durable Goods and some trade figures Thursday.  Friday we will get some new Gross Domestic Product data – which will update the M2 Velocity of Money outlook.  But honestly, while the market may drift higher (barring left field events) this isn’t a bad week for some time off.

Trump’s Wall Wailing

There’s a story in the Washington Examiner this morning that will be dominating the news cycle for the next day, and maybe longer.  Specifically, “Trump has not built a single mile of new border fence after 30 months in office.” The assertion is that what wall  has been built is only  replacement for inadequate wall previously in place, if I’m reading it right.

This represents a HUGE (bigly?) problem for Trump’s base.  You see, Trump has been playing the role of the non-politician and change artist at his rallies and in setting-up his re-election campaign.

If substantiated – and if this is all old funding and therefore old news not of his making – Trump just became vulnerable to losing in 2020.

The Base – and much of the American Middle – does want the border locked-down.  It’s past absurd.  There has been too much inflow of both people and drugs, and not enough deportations and prosecutions.  So far, Trump has been able to ‘cheerlead’ his way out of political corners.  I don’t think it will work here.  Data says we’re losing the border.

Point is, if there’s not a  lot of NEW (not replacement wall) in situ by Election Day 18-months from now, and if CBP/ICE have not stemmed the flow, Trump could be replaced on the right with a real hardliner.  A working ‘action figure.’  Not that the GOP has any, that’s another issue.

At the same time, oddly, the AoC & four princesses of Apocalypse could be in trouble, too.  They’re working an agenda that’s built around the fairytale of a post racial and post gender society.  Reality check here is that’s on the shaky premise that equality no longer matters.  To the base?  Hell yes, it matters.

Fundamentally, America has two major problems facing it.

The first is there is no one doing an audit report monthly of what either of the “Fools on the Hill” (Congress and the WH) are actually accomplishing.  People in ‘the base’ can’t act if we don’t know.  Where’s the reality check people?

Decades back, the FCC used a radio and TV licensing concept called “Promise versus Performance.”  Under the rules, which led to community ascertainment meetings to document the basis of programming, broadcasters could lose their licenses if they promise X amount of public affairs and Y amount of news and then delivered substantially less.

We don’t have that in politics.  Trump can say whatever he wants, and yet, if there’s any basis to this morning’s reports,. blatant lying would not figure well in a “points system.”

I envision numerical scoring that could preempt anyone in elective office from running again if their Promises varying widely from their actual Performance.

As to a legal basis for such an audit group – and far more rational than the mostly show Federal Election Commission (FEC) either the Government Accountability Office (GAO) or the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) could hold politicians to account based on a simple obvious infraction against We the American Voters:

False Advertising.

The other “enforcement” action needed by this great Nation is to ensure that so-called ‘equal rights issues’ do not run contrary to the fundamental basis of the Constitution.

A ‘straight reading’ of our Founding Documents (e.g. without ‘spin’) makes it clear that the American notion of equality and egalitarianism is to prohibit conduct that measures opportunity at the finishing line.  It would ensure all measurements are made at the starting line.

The idea here is straightforward:  A hard-working American can go through life taking absolutely nothing from our “social services nets” in the form of welfare, food stamps, free education, reduced college tuition, and even larger loan amounts and ‘relief’ not granted to ALL.

To the dim-witted (most politicians) current programs seem like giving things away ought to help ‘help.’ But since Johnson’s Great Socialism began, the data argues we’ve just created a lazy culture. Feminized and neutered in the process.  Which is what happens when minority children are stripped of a male parenting model in the home due to ‘household economic considerations.’

Yet, the demagogue “radical princesses” works exactly these angles:  They make specious claims and then fail to accomplish measurable results themselves.  Double standards where they promise equal results at the finish line – a hallmark of socialism/communism.

What America Needs Right Now   is a “credit back” system for working our asses off and not sucking on the tax-teat of society.

It works in the private sector like this:  We put all of our purchases on our credit card  and then run home and pay it off in a couple of hours, thus locking in ‘bonus points and cash back.’   Paying in ‘cash’ or by ‘check’ doesn’t get you the bonus.  Same issue for taxpayers.  Where’s the rebate?

We get hoodwinked into taxes.  Except, there’s no mechanism to get ‘paid back’ unless you’re willing to become deliberately unemployed, or claim some kind of minority status.  Like Elizabeth Warren’s native American status when she landed a professorship.  Her ‘starting line’ changed at who knows who’s expense?

Of course, we can’t do anything about this:  Water under the bridge.

But should there be some kind of “pay-back” ratio?  Ah, but that’s how a caste system can develop.  But, when you look at the homeless on the West Coast in cities like Los Angeles and Seattle in particular, you can see an evolving class of lazies who want to live off the hard work of other.

It may work to the advantage of the socialist/communist revolutionaries pretending to office, but it’s no way to run a railroad.

Possibly Useful Information

We’re still in the heat of summer and 3.4’s expecting the markets to move higher for several more weeks.  But that, in itself, is not all there is to Life:

Are there lessons from what’s going on in Hong Kong? Violence escalates between Hong Kong police and protesters as city spirals further into chaos.  What we see when watched closely is how a template for a complex, computationally-based society, can be torn apart.  From there, it will just be a plug & play with different, local, hot-button “issues.”  But a test run at chaos?  Starting to have that kind of scent to it.

Another Hong Kong story: Armed mob violence leaves city in shock, has us asking who’s writing the checks to their analog of Antifa?

Speaking of riots, grab your gas mask and head to Puerto Rico anarchists: Puerto Rico’s governor still won’t resign. A massive protest is expected Monday.  Which means tomorrow’s news cycle is like to feature where?

Again:  Variance of weather!  Last week there was a hand-wringing outbreak because it was summer and it got hot.  Suddenly, Severe weather brings cooler temperatures and flash flooding.  We would remind you that weather is made up of short-term variability while climate change is where the ice sheets on North America went.

The craft of the (un-audited) political hacks is setting the time base to whatever’s convenient.  We will, here at the ranch see the “climate change” from cool this morning into the 90’s by this afternoon…

Spy vs. Spy:  Iran claims it has arrested 17 members of a CIA spy ring.  We figure that’d only be a fraction of our assets.

Forerunner to Global War: Russian Official Warns of Economic ‘Explosion’ in 2021 Over Lending Cuts.  People backed into a corner, animals too, get desperate.  Flash goggles for 2024-2025.  And a Nuk-Alert from ki4u.com.

While America has be busy pissing our money away due to lack of national priorities and focus in Washington, look who’s going to the moon: India Launches Moon Mission a Week After Aborting Over Technical Problem.  Dark side, at that.  Maybe they will release the pictures?

Equally poignant: 50 Years After the Moon Landing, Money Races Into Space.

A Historical Explanation in plain view:  Ever wonder why we had to bail Europe out of not one, but two world wars?  We think there’s a hint in The Pound Is a Brexit Barometer. It’s Not Looking Great Right Now.  One way to read this is people in Europe and the UK are under the thumb of deaf, dumb, and blind political forces.  Which is why we see trouble ahead for the UK.  Rotten politics spoils the broth.

As reported in MJBD California’s view on ganja is stuck in Sacto: Several key cannabis bills still hang in balance.

Environmental Note: The biggest wind farm in Africa is officially up and running.  Remarkably, we haven’t harness the hot air out of Washington, yet…

Seeing the Future:  Tomorrow is Amelia Earhart day, so look for tales oft told in tomorrow’s news cycle.

Oh, tomorrow is also National Tequila Day.

On that note, time to bib-up and refortify.  Moron the ‘morrow.

26 thoughts on “Trump Border Creds Tank; CFNAI Data”

    • I wonder what’s up….

      I haven’t seen anything out of the ordinary that would draw my attention.. But Today I seen fourteen trucks that have the same covers on the I use to make for concealed gov’t transport..

  2. “The assertion is that what wall has been built is only replacement for inadequate wall previously in place, if I’m reading it right.”

    So, they are saying that replacing non-functional fences with actual functional wall should not count? I call BS on that!

    Spin doctoring at its worst.

  3. George,
    If you would listen to any other station besides FOX News, you would have known this story about the wall a long long time ago. This is old news to us that watch real news and podcasts. There has been a story every week for over a year about how he hasn’t built an inch of wall on the border.

    He WON’T build the wall…his own party has talked him down from that promise. They know a wall is not what’s needed. It’s protecting our ports through technology. His bluster about a wall was mostly Stephen Miller’s idea to dumb down the immigration situation in simple terms to his…well…dumb base. The wall has always been a metaphor, not reality.

      • Mostly a Fox talking point made up to gather ratings and keep the Clown Prince in power. Welfare (food stamps) is definitely a fraudulent enterprise that is mostly abused in Trump Country. Louisiana, West Virginia, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma are among the top states…DC, Oregon, and New Mexico (a swing state) are as well. If you are going to talk voter fraud, you should probably include voter suppression as well. Suppression has more of an impact than the small percentage of fake voter registration…which still hasn’t been totally proven.

        https://www.factcheck.org/2018/09/false-claim-of-california-registering-noncitizens-to-vote/

  4. It’s all part of Trumps big con game to manipulate his base into believing he has done everything about actually nothing at all. Like his shell companies-that launder money to hide his personal cashing in on the Trump “Foundation” donations…he has created a slew of shell campaign promises to give the impression that he is a hard working President…at least in between his hundreds of golf outings…which by the way…Trump has played 2.6 times more golf than Obama did at this point of his Presidency. Here is an article from a year ago George…stating what you just now mentioned today. Expanding your news resources will expand your mind into seeing that Trump is and always has been a fraud.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/fact-check-trump-say-his-border-wall-under-construction-it-n888371

    • I find it ludicrous for the media to complain about the amount of “new” border fence while at the same time making it look like Pres Trump was somehow lying about his border fence intentions. I’m not seeing the underlying reason being reported, which is the DEMS tying up funding in appropriations and using the many Obama-appointed judges to block his efforts in the courts.
      Nice try Markie, maybe next time.

  5. Trump doesn’t write the contracts or the checks for Federal works projects. At first glance, that no new walls have been built sounds more like bureaucratic sabotage than Trump reneging on campaign promises. The border areas with heaviest traffic already have walls which may not be effective. Upgrading Obama-era walls which are being overrun makes more sense from a project effectiveness standpoint.
    There is also the issue of what constitutes a “wall”. Had current budgets been used to string up corrosion resistant razor wire, the border would have already been secured. I’ve never seen a razor wire laying machine, but I bet one could be designed, built, and put in service pretty quick if a contract were awarded. I can hear the leftists now, “But razor wire sends the wrong message…” I’ve seen domestic businesses string up razor wire just to keep school kids from stealing cars. A little razor wire would be a great deterrent to open border scofflaws.

  6. George,
    -So I see that a bunch of cheerleading, crybaby, nouveau Conservatives (the new kind that just love debt) got their panties all in a bunch, because I had the temerity to point out that Rand Paul voted to add $2 trillion (10%) to the national debt for the tax cuts for the rich, in good times, but then begrudged pennies for 911 firemen. Pretty sad, really.
    -Look. I share your pain. I used to be a big Reagan guy. But then he turned out to be the Father of ‘Borrow and Spend.’
    -And now, today, you’re back at the tired refrain about motivation. Of course welfare abuse is bad, sometimes happens, and should be rooted out. But what are you going to do? Make kids go hungry? Not give a sick guy chemo? Make grandma sleep under a bridge?
    -Again, you get yourselves all worked up over pennies, really less than pennies, while the True Leaders of the Republican Party continually vote to steal trillions from the Treasury. Just go look at the FRED chart for tax revenues since the tax cuts, if you think I’m lying. Absolutely fallen off of a cliff.
    -And who are the True Republican Leaders? Here’s a clue. When they still had the juice, the R’s voted for tax cuts for the Rich, instead of Immigration Reform for the Base.
    -All the while distracting you all with all this racist nonsense and socialist name calling. Best, Mike.

  7. Classic F-ery!
    Obstruct and Project your evil, maniacal deeds,thoughts and plans. – Chap.1 of the Dumpster Bumpers Book of Liberalism.
    To bad the DPers hero, SmilingChucky has been forced to move on the border “crisis” – its called Optics..just watch – that’s what the popcorn is for after all.
    Next up on the schedule – U can watch as the 4 whores of the muslim brotherhood self destruct before our very eyes – at least those that have eyes to see..what, what?! video of rep talib from 2016 being physically removed from Trump campaign rally by secret service agent (s)?

    Yeah yeah lets build a brand new state of the art Wall over here, where NOBODY is ever seen, let alone “crossing”, and never mind the hundreds of Cartel soldiers,Human Traffickers, Illegals crossing thru holes in fence every single day.
    Only a “stupid” “fool” (Moron) would tout such a strategy.
    .

  8. So, this morning everyone thinks that because there is an article, that is questionable at best, about the wall Trump is doomed? Another Republican could come in and replace Trump in 2020? Even though as you stated there isn’t anyone with the charisma, panache, let alone name recognition. But I guess thats for another morning because that wasn’t addressed as advertised. But I digress.

    As is typical, Mark and his ilk and I am hoping not you too George, continue to underestimate the base and Mr. Trump himself. Mark loves to throw the typical blather about him being a fraud and being this or that. People with Trump derangement syndrome, Mark is one of the many poster child for that disability, have never to this day figured out Trump.

    If Trump has repaired a failing wall from the base thats ok since he has to fight the Socialist/Communist Open Boarder Democrat party and the Idiotic/US Chamber driven Republicans. So Trump has to fight both sides and has successfully removed the crap the worst president in modern history had done. Has systematically kept getting his agenda done and you think that fixing miles of broken down fencing is his death nail?

  9. I figure with last night’s mid-season finale of Fear the Walking Dead featuring a nuclear plant reactor meltdown, some of the kids, young and old, will have their nuclear misadventure antennas up today. Nuclear plant nightmares have been on the back burner with the general public as of late. After all, we survived Chernobyl, Three Mile Island and Fukashima. But would we survive the radiation releases following a major EMP event? Survival might be the luck of the draw, and the ability to recognize and react to a radiation hazard.

    TACDA memberships can now be had free:

    https://tacda.org

    Volume 52, Issue 1 of the Journal of Civil Defense explains the relationship of potential EMP events to nuclear plant radiation safety. There are decades of prep materials in their archives, especially nuclear related preps.

    The Nuk Alert device is a good low cost radiation monitor. It is small, and can be carried on your person discreetly in an emergency operating environment. The batteries will last for a decade or more without requiring replacement. This is a good low-cost radiation safety prep.

    KI4U is run by individuals who do calibration of radiation monitoring devices, so they are trained professionals, not retail store clerks. Their site can be a little hard to navigate, but the information is generally of high quality, once you find it.

  10. I’m sick and tired of watching the congress eviscerate the president’s agenda, along with bureaucrats in the executive branch refusing or sabotaging legitimate orders from the POTUS. I’d hope that voters would realize this and demand more from congress, but I have no illusions that they will. Hopefully, the horrible new government in our state will sour a few locals on the dumocrats.

    Meanwhile, tomorrow is National Tequila Day and we can hope:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bflCs0c_GA0

  11. From the “Examiner” page to which you linked:

    “Approximately 400 miles is steel fencing comparable to the planned new wall, only shorter. The other 300 miles of barrier is Normandy style, or a handful of steel beams fastened together to prevent vehicular traffic from getting by. However, the four-foot-tall fence does not prevent people from crossing.”

    The “existing wall” that the Administration is “replacing” is 670 miles of GUARD RAIL — 24″ corrugated steel highway barrier (or the earlier, 1×10 steel slats), mounted 24″ off the ground on steel I-beams, and “Normandy barrier,” what we, who played with toy soldiers as children, know as “tank traps.” THIS is what previous Administrations have foist off on the American people as a “wall…” One, just one photo from an unbiased photojournalist (and there are already many photos), and this becomes a positive issue for Trump 2020 (and something else for Dick Cheney and Karl Rove, and the Obamanista DHSers to have to team up to run damage control on…)

    Bear in-mind the “Examiner” is a neocon rag, and that the GWB Administration built most of the “wall” which the Trump Administration is having to replace…

  12. The wall will not be built until a replacement source has been found for the human trafficking that has become a multi billion dollar business, second only to drugs, which if the border closes will come across in unstoppable cargo drones.

    We all know the pedophilia problem in Britain. David Icke, who has been basically correct in everything he has said for the last 20 years said the problem in the USA is so pervasive that if/when uncovered most Americans simply will not believe it. He’s not the only one saying this.

    Women and children coming across the border are the main source for sex traffickers in the USA. A child that gets caught in the network can generate $150-200k PER YEAR. Let me put it this way. If you are a parent crossing illegally and someone takes your child, who are you going to complain to?

    Epstein was only a small fish in this network, which is basically $50 for 30 minutes in a room with the human of your choice, anything goes and exists in every town larger than 5,000 in the USA, and many smaller. You just have to have the desire to look to find it.

  13. Frustration of the week:

    I have open orders at Mouser, Digi-Key, Vetco, Jameco, Antique Radio Supply, and AllElectronics, to buy the pieces for a simple control box for the onboard electronics I’ve installed in my road truck. 99% of everyone who “sells electronics” nowadays does not know the difference between a terminal strip, terminal block, bus-bar, and barrier strip, let alone carry same. 30 years ago, I’d have gone down to the local electronics store and bought exactly what I wanted, in one trip. Today, I ran into the former proprietor of the store — 94 years old and functioning better’n most 70yos. I am really happy for him that he sold off the biz and retired when he did, but today made me realize there are times when I wish he hadn’t…

    • Ure’s Hot Tip: Having run into this kind of crap all the time with parts for ham radio projects, I solve these kinds of problems by going to eBay (main menu search) and then spec the components I need. While they are maybe not exactly what I need, I can design change and move ahead. I’ve been buying a lot of silver-mica caps out of former Soviet states (including Ukraine) which has one of the rest supplies of silver-mica caps out there.
      Phenolic terminal strips are getting pricey, nowadays. Ditto barrier strips.
      Another surprising source is Amazon. Things like resistor and capacitor kits are very inexpensive, just make sure to look at the voltage ratings for caps and power ratings for resistors.
      Just some shopping ideas.

      • Yeah, I ended up at Amazon last night, to purchase a half-dozen monaural mini-phone to RCA patch cords for the project. Nobody’s got everything, any more. I needed two six-ear terminal strips for the switchbox, hence the order to ARS, and yes, I could’ve used barrier strips and bought them from anybody — didn’t suit my purpose as well…

    • …And today was like Christmas, in July! ‘Got everything ‘cept the mono patchcords (ordered yesterday) and the flush-mount 12vdc hardwired female USB port from Vetco. Now I’m waiting on locking table-leg hinges for another project (ordered from Amazon because the ones Rockler had, looked and felt cheap, and were kinda loosey-goosey. I figure the ones online can’t be worse, and were significantly cheaper.)

  14. I think that liberal Mark may have just made a potentially racist comment.
    He alleges that the welfare abuses are primarily in Trump country of which Tennessee is named by Mark. Based on the latest statistics, the majority of Tennessee’s welfare recipients are from racial minorities. Nothing against them, a lot of my friends are from various racial backgrounds ranging from American Indian, Hispanic, to Asian & African-American. My point is that those in my state that ride the welfare system, are “good” Democrat voters. Reason for that is the Democrats have basically made good people into slaves of the welfare system, in order to buy their vote. These people have become so dependent upon their government handout, that they vote as a block for whatever “jackass” Democrat is on the ticket. Granted we have our share of whites that ride the system as well. Most of them arrived during the days of the failed TennCare health system, which was a trial run for Hillary Care or ObamaCare. It nearly bankrupted of state. Government run anything, with the exception of national defense, is never as fully functional as the private sector.

    As is the practice of the liberal press and its’ followers, anything you disagree with is racist. Right back at you Mark.

    • A fine point, made by a called to Limbaugh Monday from a black Maryland conservative (who seems to take shit from all sides) is that modern lib-speak calls anyone who disagrees with a person of color a racist and that’s – as LS notes here – is a crocka…

      We have to maintain some semblance of mental acuity: racist remarks are those directly related to racial subjugation. Not disagreement on things like welfare policy, except, and only except, when such policies screw over minorities. Like the dems did with Johnson GS BS which forced head of family males out of the home. Who was around to call that racist? People just too the food and accepted government policies.

    • Nice diversion Lloyd. Way to turn the conversation into some conspiracy blabber speak. I am not liberal. I have said this many times. I vote Republican and Trump is ruining the party. And, as a former Democrat himself, maybe that has been his TRUMPS PLAN all along?

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