Breaking Data First: The Chicago Fed National Acitivity Report (CFNAI) is hot off the printer:
“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked up to –0.02 in June from –0.03 in May. One of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from May, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to –0.26 in June from –0.27 in May.”
After the data, Dow futures were up 70-points.
The rest of the week looks pretty bland. We can see Durable Goods and some trade figures Thursday. Friday we will get some new Gross Domestic Product data – which will update the M2 Velocity of Money outlook. But honestly, while the market may drift higher (barring left field events) this isn’t a bad week for some time off.
Trump’s Wall Wailing
There’s a story in the Washington Examiner this morning that will be dominating the news cycle for the next day, and maybe longer. Specifically, “Trump has not built a single mile of new border fence after 30 months in office.” The assertion is that what wall has been built is only replacement for inadequate wall previously in place, if I’m reading it right.
This represents a HUGE (bigly?) problem for Trump’s base. You see, Trump has been playing the role of the non-politician and change artist at his rallies and in setting-up his re-election campaign.
If substantiated – and if this is all old funding and therefore old news not of his making – Trump just became vulnerable to losing in 2020.
The Base – and much of the American Middle – does want the border locked-down. It’s past absurd. There has been too much inflow of both people and drugs, and not enough deportations and prosecutions. So far, Trump has been able to ‘cheerlead’ his way out of political corners. I don’t think it will work here. Data says we’re losing the border.
Point is, if there’s not a lot of NEW (not replacement wall) in situ by Election Day 18-months from now, and if CBP/ICE have not stemmed the flow, Trump could be replaced on the right with a real hardliner. A working ‘action figure.’ Not that the GOP has any, that’s another issue.
At the same time, oddly, the AoC & four princesses of Apocalypse could be in trouble, too. They’re working an agenda that’s built around the fairytale of a post racial and post gender society. Reality check here is that’s on the shaky premise that equality no longer matters. To the base? Hell yes, it matters.
Fundamentally, America has two major problems facing it.
The first is there is no one doing an audit report monthly of what either of the “Fools on the Hill” (Congress and the WH) are actually accomplishing. People in ‘the base’ can’t act if we don’t know. Where’s the reality check people?
Decades back, the FCC used a radio and TV licensing concept called “Promise versus Performance.” Under the rules, which led to community ascertainment meetings to document the basis of programming, broadcasters could lose their licenses if they promise X amount of public affairs and Y amount of news and then delivered substantially less.
We don’t have that in politics. Trump can say whatever he wants, and yet, if there’s any basis to this morning’s reports,. blatant lying would not figure well in a “points system.”
I envision numerical scoring that could preempt anyone in elective office from running again if their Promises varying widely from their actual Performance.
As to a legal basis for such an audit group – and far more rational than the mostly show Federal Election Commission (FEC) either the Government Accountability Office (GAO) or the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) could hold politicians to account based on a simple obvious infraction against We the American Voters:
The other “enforcement” action needed by this great Nation is to ensure that so-called ‘equal rights issues’ do not run contrary to the fundamental basis of the Constitution.
A ‘straight reading’ of our Founding Documents (e.g. without ‘spin’) makes it clear that the American notion of equality and egalitarianism is to prohibit conduct that measures opportunity at the finishing line. It would ensure all measurements are made at the starting line.
The idea here is straightforward: A hard-working American can go through life taking absolutely nothing from our “social services nets” in the form of welfare, food stamps, free education, reduced college tuition, and even larger loan amounts and ‘relief’ not granted to ALL.
To the dim-witted (most politicians) current programs seem like giving things away ought to help ‘help.’ But since Johnson’s Great Socialism began, the data argues we’ve just created a lazy culture. Feminized and neutered in the process. Which is what happens when minority children are stripped of a male parenting model in the home due to ‘household economic considerations.’
Yet, the demagogue “radical princesses” works exactly these angles: They make specious claims and then fail to accomplish measurable results themselves. Double standards where they promise equal results at the finish line – a hallmark of socialism/communism.
What America Needs Right Now is a “credit back” system for working our asses off and not sucking on the tax-teat of society.
It works in the private sector like this: We put all of our purchases on our credit card and then run home and pay it off in a couple of hours, thus locking in ‘bonus points and cash back.’ Paying in ‘cash’ or by ‘check’ doesn’t get you the bonus. Same issue for taxpayers. Where’s the rebate?
We get hoodwinked into taxes. Except, there’s no mechanism to get ‘paid back’ unless you’re willing to become deliberately unemployed, or claim some kind of minority status. Like Elizabeth Warren’s native American status when she landed a professorship. Her ‘starting line’ changed at who knows who’s expense?
Of course, we can’t do anything about this: Water under the bridge.
But should there be some kind of “pay-back” ratio? Ah, but that’s how a caste system can develop. But, when you look at the homeless on the West Coast in cities like Los Angeles and Seattle in particular, you can see an evolving class of lazies who want to live off the hard work of other.
It may work to the advantage of the socialist/communist revolutionaries pretending to office, but it’s no way to run a railroad.
Possibly Useful Information
We’re still in the heat of summer and 3.4’s expecting the markets to move higher for several more weeks. But that, in itself, is not all there is to Life:
Are there lessons from what’s going on in Hong Kong? Violence escalates between Hong Kong police and protesters as city spirals further into chaos. What we see when watched closely is how a template for a complex, computationally-based society, can be torn apart. From there, it will just be a plug & play with different, local, hot-button “issues.” But a test run at chaos? Starting to have that kind of scent to it.
Another Hong Kong story: Armed mob violence leaves city in shock, has us asking who’s writing the checks to their analog of Antifa?
Speaking of riots, grab your gas mask and head to Puerto Rico anarchists: Puerto Rico’s governor still won’t resign. A massive protest is expected Monday. Which means tomorrow’s news cycle is like to feature where?
Again: Variance of weather! Last week there was a hand-wringing outbreak because it was summer and it got hot. Suddenly, Severe weather brings cooler temperatures and flash flooding. We would remind you that weather is made up of short-term variability while climate change is where the ice sheets on North America went.
The craft of the (un-audited) political hacks is setting the time base to whatever’s convenient. We will, here at the ranch see the “climate change” from cool this morning into the 90’s by this afternoon…
Spy vs. Spy: Iran claims it has arrested 17 members of a CIA spy ring. We figure that’d only be a fraction of our assets.
Forerunner to Global War: Russian Official Warns of Economic ‘Explosion’ in 2021 Over Lending Cuts. People backed into a corner, animals too, get desperate. Flash goggles for 2024-2025. And a Nuk-Alert from ki4u.com.
While America has be busy pissing our money away due to lack of national priorities and focus in Washington, look who’s going to the moon: India Launches Moon Mission a Week After Aborting Over Technical Problem. Dark side, at that. Maybe they will release the pictures?
Equally poignant: 50 Years After the Moon Landing, Money Races Into Space.
A Historical Explanation in plain view: Ever wonder why we had to bail Europe out of not one, but two world wars? We think there’s a hint in The Pound Is a Brexit Barometer. It’s Not Looking Great Right Now. One way to read this is people in Europe and the UK are under the thumb of deaf, dumb, and blind political forces. Which is why we see trouble ahead for the UK. Rotten politics spoils the broth.
As reported in MJBD California’s view on ganja is stuck in Sacto: Several key cannabis bills still hang in balance.
Environmental Note: The biggest wind farm in Africa is officially up and running. Remarkably, we haven’t harness the hot air out of Washington, yet…
Seeing the Future: Tomorrow is Amelia Earhart day, so look for tales oft told in tomorrow’s news cycle.
Oh, tomorrow is also National Tequila Day.
On that note, time to bib-up and refortify. Moron the ‘morrow.