Good one! (*can we deliver a punchline, or what?)
While the early futures were indicating another pullback in the Dow and other major indices at the open, we keep staring at the junction ahead for markets and ask the only question that matters:
What’s the reason for optimism?
The negatives are pretty clear:
- The attacks on Donald Trump at ratcheting up in Congress.
- The recent Hanoi Talks were a bust. Looking more like Trump was “played” as a NorK weapons site is not on “real-time monitoring.”
- The Trade Agreement with China seems as elusive as ever. It’s been stuffed into the “nothing imminent pile.“
- The Federal Budget is going to pot (one with lobster in it, it seems) along with the Balance of Trade tanking, although the later has certainly been driven (to a certain extent) by the on-again / off-again trade rumors. Companies were “stockpiling inventory” depending on whether their accounting was LIFO or FIFO and trying to see a “happy ending to the trade war” potential. We don’t see it yet.
- At the macro (historical/cycle-level) we are equally bummed. The India-Pakistan border war will go hot this summer if the just-under 72-year cycle continues.
- Then, next year, which Israel hits 72-years as a standalone country, that cycle comes due. As I’ve told you before, there’s a case for a short-but-bloody Indo-Pak war this year that – while it ends quickly – would embolden the militant Muslim regimes in the Middle East in 2020 and there’s the Biblically predicted beginning of the end, so to speak.
- With this in mine, and the 7-year (tribulation) shot clock, that puts the US in the SloGloWar somewhere between 2020 (if we’re drawn-in to Israel’s existential war for survival and we’re already putting in missiles) or as late as 2026 if we starting time-stamping “Tribulation” from the Indo-Pak war likely this summer (by cycle theory, anyway!).
- Being no fools, Taiwan knows it has a day of reckoning to come – so they want more US missiles, too. Most people, ignorant of history, don’t consider that the 72-year “war shot-clock” may have started running for Taiwan anywhere from 1947-on. 1949 at latest because “Chiang Kai-shek declared martial law in May 1949 whilst a few hundred thousand Nationalist troops and two million refugees, predominantly from the government and business community, fled from mainland China to Taiwan.
- China’s skirting major recession as Growth fears, China equity plunge haunts world stocks. China was down almost two percent overnight.
- Since the 72-year clock is really 71.916 years, we expect that when the Israeli existential war breaks out, China will use that (likely the nuclear back-side of that conflict) as a distraction in March-April 2021 to swipe Tainwan back.. (Click! Hear the tumblers of history, yet?)
- Concurrent with the war-coming mood is the same kind of extremist hate speech that propelled Hitler into power. And disgustingly, democrats find themselves defending speech of a Muslim congressperson on the one hand, but that “speech” happens to be inflammatory and anti-Semitic. All of which leaves us to ponder, as the wheel of history turns (and is about to run over us!) whether in this economic longwave perspective, democrat radicals are about to reprise the role of the Nazis, pre WWII. Except, as a poor spin of German politics (Democratic Socialists) versus “democrat, socialists, trying to raise communism from the dead.”
- There is also the soon-to-land Mueller report. As the foreplay (media monetizing) continues on that score, Paul Manafort received a 47-month sentence, and since he’s already serve 9-month, which the judge in the case says will “count on time” we’re figuring that within 3-years, Manafort will be out. Which means Mueller’s gotta be pissed, but what can he do?
- The pending Mueller report will, almost without doubt, focus on the fact that Donald Trump (as a global real estate developer) likely did indeed consider putting up a building in Moscow). But, by our windage, he’s likely to pervert the “normal course of business” (for an international real estate mogul) into a selling-out of America, which is rich considering the recent radical socialist left-turn of democrats and, oh yeah, selling Jews down the road by defending what sounds to us like thinly-veiled hate speech.
Oil. We know some American Jews who are already eyeing relocation to Canada, since it hasn’t escaped them that the left-wing spin, on the ultra-right pre-WW II, might turn on them.
And making it all incredibly strange to behold is the multiplicity of clowns who actually want to be president. A job, we would note, that has seldom had anyone with accounting competency in the Oval. (We figure the princess of the barricades, AOC has designs on being an “oval-teen.”)
A lot of moving pieces to the Global Mind Map and now we get to the breaking news on jobs just out:
Jobs Data
OK, finally a positive – the jobs report:
“THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION — FEBRUARY 2019
Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in February (+20,000), and the
unemployment rate declined to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Employment in professional and business services, health care, and
wholesale trade continued to trend up, while construction employment decreased.
Household Survey Data
The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.8 percent in February,
and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 300,000 to 6.2 million. Among the
unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs
(including people on temporary layoff) declined by 225,000. This decline reflects,
in part, the return of federal workers who were furloughed in January due to the
partial government shutdown.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.5 percent),
Whites (3.3 percent), and Hispanics (4.3 percent) decreased in February. The jobless
rates for adult women (3.4 percent), teenagers (13.4 percent), Blacks (7.0 percent),
and Asians (3.1 percent) showed little or no change over the month.
In February, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more)
was essentially unchanged at 1.3 million and accounted for 20.4 percent of the
unemployed.
The labor force participation rate held at 63.2 percent in February and has changed
little over the year. The employment-population ratio, at 60.7 percent, was unchanged
over the month but was up by 0.3 percentage point over the year.
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to
as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 837,000 to 4.3 million in February.
This decline follows a sharp increase in January that may have resulted from the
partial federal government shutdown. “
All good news? Here’s one problem: The CES birth-death model estimated 137,000 or about half of those jobs into existence. Any port in a storm, huh? OK, and the number of people not in the labor forc e was up almost 200,000…
Housing Data
From Census, a nice bump in Housing completions and new building permits, too::
Not all the new is grim. But futures are down 224 on the Do side after the numbers…
One more positive? Fed consumer debt report shows credit use was expanding at a 5.1% annualized rate, so consumers are definitely NOT sitting on their wallets…
Last point: In the Money Stocks report, the Fed was printing at 4.6% annualized basis the 90-day M! run-rate, so we can’t get too excited about the market collapsing here. We still like the idea of a downer for a week or three, then a one-last run up in April before a May decline. But, we shall see if the wave hold…
Climate: The Case FOR Internet Licensure
I don’t know if Ure tracking the story “Adults won’t take climate change seriously. So we, the youth, are forced to strike.”
Our “news nose, that knows news” has sniffed this pile long enough to come to two likely outcomes.
First, 7-th graders doing a Global Kid’s Climate Strike? Pardon me, while I barf. I’d bet my ass that they’re highly-coached by agenda-peddling grown-ups. We’ll take bets on liberal teachers at window #2…
Second point: In my upcoming book which will be serialized as I write it on the Peoplenomics side, (“Broken Web II) I will make a compelling case FOR licensing the Internet.
The time is upon us and the Internet is doing more “social damage” than free-for-all radio did prior to the passage of the Communications Act of 1934 mid previous depression. Licensing was a key part of that.
Posting and riling-up people up with alarmist spew is fine – if you’re a grown up. But, do we want 7-th graders drinking and driving? Why should they be all over social? Who’s manipulating them in larger numbers for an agenda?
Hate to burst your bubble, but the Internet is a social nuke and it’s easy for agenda-driven grown-ups to use our children as “tools.” Digital victimology 101.
Just so you know what’s coming, I will also be proposing – with some very sound logic – that there be no internet posting that is “anonymous,” either. If major social platforms were responsible, they would make identities clear, especially on retweets and such, so that lawyers for victims of internet hate can sue for libel, slander, and misdirection (plus criminal intent) against identifiable (and therefore financial responsible) persons.
Absent this, we figure Internet torts will explode into a huge monetization.
This week I’ve been in consulting “work trance.” Most people don’t know that US companies will lose $1.3-billion or more to cyber crime this year and that will swell to an estimate $1.6 billion by 2021.
That’s just the companies.
Ure Wants Licensing???
In a certain light, the Russians are getting ahead of us. Already, they have curtailed “absolute” free speech. And now we see how “New Russian bill introduces punishment for insulting state.”
In some ways, this would bring a soft kind of “law enforcement” to the Internet but depending on how the law is enforced, could is slow the left-running social memes or dial-down digital uprisings? Would Antifa see such laws used to curtail them? Hell yes.
The problem, as always, is striking a balance. You know my name, you can find my name and phone number in the phone book and I make it a point not to libel or slander and we hav e excellent (rabid pit bull) legal resources. Maybe one-in-a-million does that.
The problem with Internet controls is they become heavy-handed almost instantly. Take this report that a “….China chat log leak shows scope of surveillance…”
In the west, just with a PII (personally identifiable information) data breach, at a settlement cost in the $75-$120 range per record, such a breach in the West might carried a potential financial impact of $43.7-billion dollars. In China? No cost…they own the courts.
You’re going to hear these terms a lot in coming years, so commit these to memory now and avoid the rush:
- PII (personally identifiable information)
- PCI (personal credit information)
- PHI (personal health information)
And, as everyone who hacks from Ukraine or Latvia already knows, those PHI records have a much higher breach coast of upwards of $300 per record stolen in awards to victims of a breach. No telling what the auction prices are like on the “dark web” but it’s big enough to keep the attention of the Russian Mafia and a lot of other people you’d worry about if they wanted to “date your daughter.”
As a result, the Chinese model of the Net-as-Mind control is coming along fast: “In sensitive year for China, warnings against ‘erroneous thoughts’.”
It’s important to understand the context: In China, the Great Firewall of China is an effective social control, especially when tied with their also quickly-rising “social credit” system.
Here, there’s no control and I’d have to guess most of the retweets and FB reposts that drive huge traffic to social are not from “innocent bystanders.” As another colleague put it, “There’s a battle on for your mind…”
Yessir. We’re losing and we need to fix IT before IT f*x us all.
With the global war “shot clock” running, it is a problem we will be talking a lot about since it’s also where the digitally-backed invasion of America’s southern border is orchestrated, but that’s enough of the tip of the iceberg for this morning.
A Tactical Note from “Warhammer”
Somewhere, you might want to toss this into your contemplations of Future, as well:
“George,
This bit of news sounds pretty innocuous . . .
It is, at a minimum, a show of U.S. and NATO solidarity with the Polish regime. Militarily, the Reaper does not provide any significant intelligence capability not already available thru space based intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. These drones are designed to perform close air support, combat search and rescue, precision strike, buddy-lase (weapon terminal laser guidance), convoy/raid overwatch, target development, and terminal air guidance. The Reaper also provides a visual sign to Russian commanders that their activities are being actively watched and the electronic transmissions monitored.
Drones have opened a whole new range of capabilities to military commanders. Teamed with ISR, electronic warfare and cyber, the drone operators have clear views across the spectrum. Should hostilities erupt, the Reaper can live up to its name when armed with AGM-114 Hellfire missiles, GBU-12 Paveway II and GBU-38 Joint Direct Attack Munitions, although these are not a part of the initial operational plan.”
We mention this for what reason?
We are very possibly in the pre-war “hardening of the lines” period. We see it with the radical left, the Chinese, the Muslims, and all over the web.
Non-Discrimination Note: Women’s Day
This is International Women’s Day. International Men’s Day is November 19th and we didn’t mark that one as worth mentioning, either.
At times like this, my mental MP3 player cranks-up with wise-counsel from brother Hendrix:
“….And so Castle Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea, Eventually….”
As we say, moron the morrow or tomorrow especially for our Peoplenomics.com subscribers.
“Yessir. We’re losing and we need to fix IT before IT f*x us all.” There is really nothing to fix, because we like it the way it is; Otherwise, it would be the way it is! ;-(.
Unfortunately…I have my doubts that it can’t be fixed.
I wonder if Russia passed that law after seeing just how. Our president is being attacked from every angle. And was worried the same thing could possibly happen there.
George – very prescient topics this morning -PHI, PII, PCI huge, valuable “prizes”..who owns yours now?not U. Who will own them in the future? U?
Pillarista’s know..Pillar – Pillar wallet – learn how to take control of your digital information/life, or not.
Largest social platform in the world brought you by..DARPA – see project Lifelock. 1 day after this project shutdown, FB launched. Hmmm largest social network in the world that can control your phones Mic, Camera and GPS..F-ing brilliant.
“Stupid orange guy” working the “Optics” like no ones business. Vonn Mueller drops Report and the next shoe to “drop”..FISA DeClas – Got Popcorn?
Beyond any political labels, I’ve always wondered why the powerful demand to control (limit) the minds (and actions) of the masses.
It always foments eventual revolt, and always comes back in a whirlwind to savagely bite the would-be controllers on the butt.
Ultimately, I suppose, the powerful think they should exercise their power to create a more secure atmosphere for themselves. Safety.
But the only real safety lies in large numbers of free people. And even that isn’t always stable, long-term.
It’s a mystery.
A key aspect of this IMHO, is risk, respect and reward.
Not that long ago, political leaders, whether of tribe, nation or empire, put their personal assets on the line in battle. When Hannibal wiped out a Roman army at Cannae, the Roman Senate lost a full third of their members. As late as the 1860s, local businessmen funded entire military units out of their own pockets and many lead them into battle.
In a very real sense WW1 was the suicide of the west as the UK, France, Germany and Russia lost an entire generation of men who were being groomed to be the future leaders.
Today the leaders of our Empire have the rewards, demand our respect…. but whom among them have risked all for the reward of leadership?
“Not that long ago, political leaders, whether of tribe, nation or empire, put their personal assets on the line in battle.”
Lol lol lol Marlowe… Yup…
Not only that.. They were the first ones up front in the battle to.
Just imagine what problems that would eliminate in govt..
I’m willing to wager that the idiots would be giving some serious thoughts to what they decide and like the old days.. I bet they would actually read the crap they vote on..write it as well..the age of ten thousand page bills would be long gone and bills amounting to a few pages that even they could read and understand.
Very true about the globals climte issue crammed down school kids throats. I’ve got two of them, and they often come home with a “Did you know…” crap. I subscribe to the theories coming out of Suspicious0bservers and solar forcing (and it goes beyond that too, actually). When I hear the latest crap told to my kids, I remind them of your famous line, Everything is a business model, and then also remind them there are greater forces at work than what piddly little man can do. My kids can see through the scams now, and question so much more than their classmates, just by asking themselves what the business model angle is.
George,
You’ve got an interesting lineup of possible current and future events – here’s what I think on some of them . . .
Donald Trump would not have near the problems he has if he hadn’t been so GREEDY about acquiring money and prestige. He’s president for Gawd’s sake, he’s won the prize – so cool it! (And doing illegal things will bring grief!)
While Taiwan might well be a flashpoint, I personally think that the situation in the South China Sea is more worrisome.
Regarding any Indo-Pak conflict – mixing old religious hatred with current political animosity is deadly, and the best to be hoped for is another stalemate kicking things down the road.
Unfortunately, the situation in the Middle East will need to be handled sooner than later, because not are there political and religious considerations, but environmental – the water supply in the area is less and less sustainable – breaks down to ‘hiarchy (sp) of needs’..,
Just some thoughts.
George in your intelligence gathering mode have you seen anything about the offing of the supreme down on the border? Strange how they kept it so quiet.
I’m not sure it was so quiet. It was rather obvious at the time. The media had no interest in exploring this – it was good for them that the guy was gone.
Of more concern is that RBG is almost definitely dead and gone, and no real picture or video(other than year old recycled ones) have shown up. At the least, she could have shown in a lineup with the rest of the supremes, even if she was in her wheelchair. It’s of real concern that this person is out of sight and the media are not chasing this story to the ground.
Corruption has made this country a third world nation. Congress senators living for their own bank scum they are
I really dont like giving the government more power. So I would like to vote no on internet licenses and yes to real parenting taking back things! It is the not internet s fault and it would only make hacking breaches worse because all our info is tied up to our license. Could we please not.
Want to give police the power to arrest death threat perps on the web?
How ab out no social access until age 16 and webber training like driver training?
I think the cost of arresting “death threat perps” might exceed the value of doing so. Death threats are a nuisance. Those who intend to inflict death would most likely never telegraph their intentions. They would just do it without warning or mercy. The cost to privacy of everyone for the slight benefit to a few is excessive. Freedom isn’t free, and there’s risk in everything, but I’d rather see a lower level of decentralized risk than a situation such as the China social credit system, where you’re reminded each day that you really are nothing other than a commodity owned by others.
Companies such as facebook and google need to be hit with the full force of the anti-trust laws, and we need far stronger privacy laws. Data aggregation and use of data for purposes not originally intended need to be criminalized if done without permission. Companies such as oath(yahoo) and all the others that read your emails and datamine them need to be prosecuted for the practice. If new laws are necessary to do that, then so be it. It’s reprehensible, immoral, and against all that America stands for. It’s amazing that we don’t have an easy to use end to end encryption system that the email handlers can’t read. One that’s nearly transparent to the users. Of course, most people are too blind to realize that email is essentially a cleartext system.
Inciting to riot, sedition, and treason are already crimes. Tracking and tracing on the net is relatively easy unless the user is very informed and clever. Enforce the laws we have rather than making new ones to repeat what is already illegal.
Registering users is analogous to registering guns. It may work for TPTB until someone uses a stolen gun or stolen credentials.
“yes to real parenting taking back things!”
I personally think that it Won’t ever happen at this point in time. Its not in the plan.
After NAFTA was signed and deregulation of necessary products and services and jobs were outsourced.
Mom had to get a FT job and dad a part time job on top of his regular job. College grads the same just to pay off an education.
This took the adult presence out of the home. Leaving children to child rearing centers and latch key. For lower income families you have the street gangs computer games and social media and cable tv..
A lot would have to change..
I think the platforms need regulation, not people!
And WTF was Trump saying yesterday about immigration? More H1b visas? He might have lost my 2020 vote unless he corrects this! According to Shadowstats John Williams, the REAL unemployment number (when you count the “discouraged workers like we did before Clinton) is 23%!
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/03/06/trump-immigration-workers-more/
I’d agree that eliminating social for minors would be a good thing. The question is how? As someone who takes personal freedom and autonomy(and anonymity) seriously, I’ve never had a social media account and don’t want one. Even dating sites are just data mining operations that you get to pay for. I’ll post my best suggestions anonymously or pseudanoymously, but little more. I avoid dealing with companies that encourage social exchange and avoid those “perfessionals” that like to have networks with customer’s data easily available to anyone. Obviously, that’s difficult, but I’m the only one that knows my health info, since I don’t share that with anyone. Credit is less important if you’re not on the steep part of the S curve of life, so it’s optional.
I don’t like the idea of licenses for access. I understand the perceived need, but it’s an invitation to hack or otherwise spoof someone else’s access credentials. Pirate internet anyone? It’s bad enough to have an ISP that knows too much, and I don’t trust the VPN’s much more.
The best way to keep data from proliferating is to keep your mouth shut. Never say or type anything that you won’t say in public, and say as little in public as possible.
So far,gold is up almost $20 ever since Bryce Harper got into the batting cage for the Phillies.If you recall,I’ve been telling you for years that the gold price and the success-or lack of-for the Phillies have marched in lockstep ever since gold’s re-legalization in 1975.In the fall of 2011,with gold at around $1900,I told everyone that I knew to sell after I saw one of the Phillies’ star players immobile.
“All Misery On Earth Is A Business Model.” Is that the truth or what? See, George, you are communing with the highest beings on the planet. Someone else in this comment section turned us all on to Ronald Bernard.
You can find all of Ronald’s interviews here – on his personal channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/RonaldBernard
Here is the 2nd video where he actually says that sentence: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDZdhKSd3is
I have searched for over 20 years for the information that he is relating for all to hear and take heed.
All of us knows that something stinks in Rome and other places, London, D.C., etc., but it is elusive to nail the tail on the ufo.
It may be worthwhile to diarize the bienniel convention of, pardon the oxymoron, the Democratic Socialists of America. It’s to be held in Atlanta at the beginning of August. According to the organization’s faq page, one need not be a US citizen to become a DSA member. As near as I can make out from the details offered to casual public readers, foreign persons domiciled outside the US are permitted membership in this US political candidate influencer.
To counter alleged connections of Potus to Moscow, perhaps a countering verifiable link between anti-Potus and Tehran would emerge from desert sands? Offence is the best defence?
Dude,
I have to ask myself this one important question.
Why so much effort? I seen these dudes change every word on websites i have visited, hack my phone, change my Facebook etc. Etc. I seen them change my texts messages, stuff i have posted on sites such as ures and others i have visited. I have been outright straight forward threatend, i seen some crazy stuff. They can beam crap right into your brain and make you think you are being talked to straight from God.
Sure, im pretty out there. Stil, I got one helavu memory. I have absolutely no doubt im on a few lists. I keep seeing “brutal” lately. Lol
Why so much effort? I mean reeeeeeaaaaaaallly! Im just one dude. Lol im actually kinda taken back they think so much of little old me. Why now?
Whatfer?
Cause i called some Elite dudes on their bullsh!t? Who cares? I mean seriously, people rant all day long about the injustices. Im no real threat.. or am i?
Why so much effort? Maybe its just a test. Everythings a test.
You know what the Kabylian says,
“The masses of people are carried along, obedient to their environment; the wills and desires of others stronger than themselves; the effects of inherited tendencies; the suggestions of those about them; and other outward causes; which tend to move them about on the chess-board of life like mere pawns. By rising above these influencing causes, the advanced Hermetists seek a higher plane of mental action, and by dominating their moods, emotions, impulses and feelings, they create for themselves new characters, qualities and powers, by which they overcome their ordinary environment, and thus become practically players instead of mere Pawns. Such people help to play the game of life understandingly, instead of being moved about this way and that way by stronger influences and powers and wills. They use the Principle of Cause and Effect, instead of being used by it. Of course, even the highest are subject to the Principle as it manifests on the higher planes, but on the lower planes of activity, they are Masters instead of Slaves. “
Been writting a book for about 12 years now. Been about 4 years since i wrote anything in it. Perhaps tomorrow will be the day, i write something. ;)
You do know that all these problems you folks are opining about needing to be fixed simply do not exist in most countries around the world, right?
These issues come up because 1) there are 95 million adults who are not employed in the USA, so they have plenty of time on their hands to screw with others. 2) there is so much printed money sloshing around in the USA that it is impossible to resist gaming some of that cash off of people. Average per capita income in the world is less than $3,000. In most countries there is no point in trying to rip off people, they don’t have any excess to steal. You steal from them you starve them. Not so in the USA, where ripping people off is institutionalized into the culture. So much so that Americans actually pay the salaries (taxes) of those causing most of their problems of getting ripped off. These government employees then support the big boys who have turned screwing the populace into a fine art.
Start a business, work hard actually producing something, make a profit selling a quality good, has become a quaint, outdated idea in the USA.