Good one! (*can we deliver a punchline, or what?)
While the early futures were indicating another pullback in the Dow and other major indices at the open, we keep staring at the junction ahead for markets and ask the only question that matters:
What’s the reason for optimism?
The negatives are pretty clear:
- The attacks on Donald Trump at ratcheting up in Congress.
- The recent Hanoi Talks were a bust. Looking more like Trump was “played” as a NorK weapons site is not on “real-time monitoring.”
- The Trade Agreement with China seems as elusive as ever. It’s been stuffed into the “nothing imminent pile.“
- The Federal Budget is going to pot (one with lobster in it, it seems) along with the Balance of Trade tanking, although the later has certainly been driven (to a certain extent) by the on-again / off-again trade rumors. Companies were “stockpiling inventory” depending on whether their accounting was LIFO or FIFO and trying to see a “happy ending to the trade war” potential. We don’t see it yet.
- At the macro (historical/cycle-level) we are equally bummed. The India-Pakistan border war will go hot this summer if the just-under 72-year cycle continues.
- Then, next year, which Israel hits 72-years as a standalone country, that cycle comes due. As I’ve told you before, there’s a case for a short-but-bloody Indo-Pak war this year that – while it ends quickly – would embolden the militant Muslim regimes in the Middle East in 2020 and there’s the Biblically predicted beginning of the end, so to speak.
- With this in mine, and the 7-year (tribulation) shot clock, that puts the US in the SloGloWar somewhere between 2020 (if we’re drawn-in to Israel’s existential war for survival and we’re already putting in missiles) or as late as 2026 if we starting time-stamping “Tribulation” from the Indo-Pak war likely this summer (by cycle theory, anyway!).
- Being no fools, Taiwan knows it has a day of reckoning to come – so they want more US missiles, too. Most people, ignorant of history, don’t consider that the 72-year “war shot-clock” may have started running for Taiwan anywhere from 1947-on. 1949 at latest because “Chiang Kai-shek declared martial law in May 1949 whilst a few hundred thousand Nationalist troops and two million refugees, predominantly from the government and business community, fled from mainland China to Taiwan.
- China’s skirting major recession as Growth fears, China equity plunge haunts world stocks. China was down almost two percent overnight.
- Since the 72-year clock is really 71.916 years, we expect that when the Israeli existential war breaks out, China will use that (likely the nuclear back-side of that conflict) as a distraction in March-April 2021 to swipe Tainwan back.. (Click! Hear the tumblers of history, yet?)
- Concurrent with the war-coming mood is the same kind of extremist hate speech that propelled Hitler into power. And disgustingly, democrats find themselves defending speech of a Muslim congressperson on the one hand, but that “speech” happens to be inflammatory and anti-Semitic. All of which leaves us to ponder, as the wheel of history turns (and is about to run over us!) whether in this economic longwave perspective, democrat radicals are about to reprise the role of the Nazis, pre WWII. Except, as a poor spin of German politics (Democratic Socialists) versus “democrat, socialists, trying to raise communism from the dead.”
- There is also the soon-to-land Mueller report. As the foreplay (media monetizing) continues on that score, Paul Manafort received a 47-month sentence, and since he’s already serve 9-month, which the judge in the case says will “count on time” we’re figuring that within 3-years, Manafort will be out. Which means Mueller’s gotta be pissed, but what can he do?
- The pending Mueller report will, almost without doubt, focus on the fact that Donald Trump (as a global real estate developer) likely did indeed consider putting up a building in Moscow). But, by our windage, he’s likely to pervert the “normal course of business” (for an international real estate mogul) into a selling-out of America, which is rich considering the recent radical socialist left-turn of democrats and, oh yeah, selling Jews down the road by defending what sounds to us like thinly-veiled hate speech.
Oil. We know some American Jews who are already eyeing relocation to Canada, since it hasn’t escaped them that the left-wing spin, on the ultra-right pre-WW II, might turn on them.
And making it all incredibly strange to behold is the multiplicity of clowns who actually want to be president. A job, we would note, that has seldom had anyone with accounting competency in the Oval. (We figure the princess of the barricades, AOC has designs on being an “oval-teen.”)
A lot of moving pieces to the Global Mind Map and now we get to the breaking news on jobs just out:
OK, finally a positive – the jobs report:
“THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION — FEBRUARY 2019
Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in February (+20,000), and the
unemployment rate declined to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Employment in professional and business services, health care, and
wholesale trade continued to trend up, while construction employment decreased.
Household Survey Data
The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.8 percent in February,
and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 300,000 to 6.2 million. Among the
unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs
(including people on temporary layoff) declined by 225,000. This decline reflects,
in part, the return of federal workers who were furloughed in January due to the
partial government shutdown.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.5 percent),
Whites (3.3 percent), and Hispanics (4.3 percent) decreased in February. The jobless
rates for adult women (3.4 percent), teenagers (13.4 percent), Blacks (7.0 percent),
and Asians (3.1 percent) showed little or no change over the month.
In February, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more)
was essentially unchanged at 1.3 million and accounted for 20.4 percent of the
The labor force participation rate held at 63.2 percent in February and has changed
little over the year. The employment-population ratio, at 60.7 percent, was unchanged
over the month but was up by 0.3 percentage point over the year.
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to
as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 837,000 to 4.3 million in February.
This decline follows a sharp increase in January that may have resulted from the
partial federal government shutdown. “
All good news? Here’s one problem: The CES birth-death model estimated 137,000 or about half of those jobs into existence. Any port in a storm, huh? OK, and the number of people not in the labor forc e was up almost 200,000…
From Census, a nice bump in Housing completions and new building permits, too::
Not all the new is grim. But futures are down 224 on the Do side after the numbers…
One more positive? Fed consumer debt report shows credit use was expanding at a 5.1% annualized rate, so consumers are definitely NOT sitting on their wallets…
Last point: In the Money Stocks report, the Fed was printing at 4.6% annualized basis the 90-day M! run-rate, so we can’t get too excited about the market collapsing here. We still like the idea of a downer for a week or three, then a one-last run up in April before a May decline. But, we shall see if the wave hold…
Climate: The Case FOR Internet Licensure
I don’t know if Ure tracking the story “Adults won’t take climate change seriously. So we, the youth, are forced to strike.”
Our “news nose, that knows news” has sniffed this pile long enough to come to two likely outcomes.
First, 7-th graders doing a Global Kid’s Climate Strike? Pardon me, while I barf. I’d bet my ass that they’re highly-coached by agenda-peddling grown-ups. We’ll take bets on liberal teachers at window #2…
Second point: In my upcoming book which will be serialized as I write it on the Peoplenomics side, (“Broken Web II) I will make a compelling case FOR licensing the Internet.
The time is upon us and the Internet is doing more “social damage” than free-for-all radio did prior to the passage of the Communications Act of 1934 mid previous depression. Licensing was a key part of that.
Posting and riling-up people up with alarmist spew is fine – if you’re a grown up. But, do we want 7-th graders drinking and driving? Why should they be all over social? Who’s manipulating them in larger numbers for an agenda?
Hate to burst your bubble, but the Internet is a social nuke and it’s easy for agenda-driven grown-ups to use our children as “tools.” Digital victimology 101.
Just so you know what’s coming, I will also be proposing – with some very sound logic – that there be no internet posting that is “anonymous,” either. If major social platforms were responsible, they would make identities clear, especially on retweets and such, so that lawyers for victims of internet hate can sue for libel, slander, and misdirection (plus criminal intent) against identifiable (and therefore financial responsible) persons.
Absent this, we figure Internet torts will explode into a huge monetization.
This week I’ve been in consulting “work trance.” Most people don’t know that US companies will lose $1.3-billion or more to cyber crime this year and that will swell to an estimate $1.6 billion by 2021.
That’s just the companies.
Ure Wants Licensing???
In a certain light, the Russians are getting ahead of us. Already, they have curtailed “absolute” free speech. And now we see how “New Russian bill introduces punishment for insulting state.”
In some ways, this would bring a soft kind of “law enforcement” to the Internet but depending on how the law is enforced, could is slow the left-running social memes or dial-down digital uprisings? Would Antifa see such laws used to curtail them? Hell yes.
The problem, as always, is striking a balance. You know my name, you can find my name and phone number in the phone book and I make it a point not to libel or slander and we hav e excellent (rabid pit bull) legal resources. Maybe one-in-a-million does that.
The problem with Internet controls is they become heavy-handed almost instantly. Take this report that a “….China chat log leak shows scope of surveillance…”
In the west, just with a PII (personally identifiable information) data breach, at a settlement cost in the $75-$120 range per record, such a breach in the West might carried a potential financial impact of $43.7-billion dollars. In China? No cost…they own the courts.
You’re going to hear these terms a lot in coming years, so commit these to memory now and avoid the rush:
- PII (personally identifiable information)
- PCI (personal credit information)
- PHI (personal health information)
And, as everyone who hacks from Ukraine or Latvia already knows, those PHI records have a much higher breach coast of upwards of $300 per record stolen in awards to victims of a breach. No telling what the auction prices are like on the “dark web” but it’s big enough to keep the attention of the Russian Mafia and a lot of other people you’d worry about if they wanted to “date your daughter.”
As a result, the Chinese model of the Net-as-Mind control is coming along fast: “In sensitive year for China, warnings against ‘erroneous thoughts’.”
It’s important to understand the context: In China, the Great Firewall of China is an effective social control, especially when tied with their also quickly-rising “social credit” system.
Here, there’s no control and I’d have to guess most of the retweets and FB reposts that drive huge traffic to social are not from “innocent bystanders.” As another colleague put it, “There’s a battle on for your mind…”
Yessir. We’re losing and we need to fix IT before IT f*x us all.
With the global war “shot clock” running, it is a problem we will be talking a lot about since it’s also where the digitally-backed invasion of America’s southern border is orchestrated, but that’s enough of the tip of the iceberg for this morning.
A Tactical Note from “Warhammer”
Somewhere, you might want to toss this into your contemplations of Future, as well:
It is, at a minimum, a show of U.S. and NATO solidarity with the Polish regime. Militarily, the Reaper does not provide any significant intelligence capability not already available thru space based intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. These drones are designed to perform close air support, combat search and rescue, precision strike, buddy-lase (weapon terminal laser guidance), convoy/raid overwatch, target development, and terminal air guidance. The Reaper also provides a visual sign to Russian commanders that their activities are being actively watched and the electronic transmissions monitored.
Drones have opened a whole new range of capabilities to military commanders. Teamed with ISR, electronic warfare and cyber, the drone operators have clear views across the spectrum. Should hostilities erupt, the Reaper can live up to its name when armed with AGM-114 Hellfire missiles, GBU-12 Paveway II and GBU-38 Joint Direct Attack Munitions, although these are not a part of the initial operational plan.”
We mention this for what reason?
We are very possibly in the pre-war “hardening of the lines” period. We see it with the radical left, the Chinese, the Muslims, and all over the web.
Non-Discrimination Note: Women’s Day
This is International Women’s Day. International Men’s Day is November 19th and we didn’t mark that one as worth mentioning, either.
At times like this, my mental MP3 player cranks-up with wise-counsel from brother Hendrix:
“….And so Castle Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea, Eventually….”
As we say, moron the morrow or tomorrow especially for our Peoplenomics.com subscribers.