News

I don’t want to sound too flip here, but the news flow lately has been a real grinder.  We are in a war, failing countries are a world-wide deal, and few want to address the underlying malaise on humanity. Which comes down to a short list: There are nearly as many bad people as good folks, … Read More

We don’t like to think about War as a condition under which investment decisions must be made.  But things are going quickly in that direction. Driven by the historical usual suspects; namely race, religion, and real estate/resources. This is all made worse in the present conditions because we are in highly politicized times and the … Read More

When I cobbled up the first Aggregate Index in the wake of the Internet Bubble collapse in 2001, it was designed – as much as anything – to track inter-market variations. When Techs collapsed in a $7 to $9 trillion dollar heap of losses, Wall Street didn’t apologize for EBITDA accounting (wholly screwing up perspective … Read More

And a Stormy Tuesday morning coming. We’re OK – just heavy rain and lightning all over hell and gone.  G2 and his fire crew are out on downed trees and power lines with the local utility outfits.  Lots of red on the radar at the bottom of this system… A couple of tornado reports down … Read More

A dandy day of Spring, Sunday.  Second day of spring is a lot more “iffy.” Let’s begin with economic matters, especially the Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator which is just out: “The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to +0.51 in February from +0.59 in January. Three of the four broad categories of … Read More

Everyone has a messy shop, to one degree, or another.  I’m just more guilty than most because of my youth. See, my Main Hobby was ham radio.  When you work on a radio, you do whatever repairs and adjustments are needed.  Then seamlessly slide into playing with it.  There’s no logical “break in the action” … Read More

Seriously – in like a Nostradamus-like way?  Are they leading indicators of Life on Earth, overall?  Then head for the shelter. We will attempt to unravel at least a corner of this fall of yard in this weekend’s review of our Aggregate Index’s recent activity.  While points to a recent date and may be telling … Read More

Notwithstanding my complete lack of mental health credentials, I figure with the world gone as “crazy as it has” it’s safe for anyone to “hit the couch” and see who’s nuts. As reports from the war zone run to Russia’s combat losses in Ukraine exceed 14,000 troops (ukrinform.net), our west L.A. *(Century City) [backup] consigliere … Read More

But, before we wheel out the white board and play huff-the-marker, a number of housekeeping economic reports to dispense with: Retail Sales: Remember, this is a dollarized report.  So, we could have price increases – not actual consumption levels – account for virtually all of the (purported) increases. Then we stir in half a cup … Read More

Yeah, sure, the headline is? “The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these … Read More

Where is “Beyond Prepping” these days?  What will the world look like in 10-years?  Will there be some “hot new thing?”  And – with all that, how do we advise our children on investing, saving, and what will that world be like? No simple answers here.  Not with interest rate roulette coming up this afternoon … Read More

I’ll save the more erudite discourse for Peoplenomics tomorrow.  Because those readers are more likely to find topics like Hysteresis in Financial Decision Making quite interesting. The general ides, though, is that of lag-times as the Future rolls into view. We are seeing this play out right now in Ukraine. The Ukrainians do X (cut off … Read More

It’s National Be Late for Work Day! If you haven’t done it?  You owe it to yourself to be an hour late (due to Sunday morning’s time change) at least once in your life. A typical boss will not accept the excuse “Time change?  What in God’s name are you talking about?  Sun came up at … Read More