It’s National Be Late for Work Day!
If you haven’t done it? You owe it to yourself to be an hour late (due to Sunday morning’s time change) at least once in your life.
A typical boss will not accept the excuse “Time change? What in God’s name are you talking about? Sun came up at the same time as always…”
Pressing the point more, you might want snarl “Was there a memo sent out, adivising me to report to work an hour earlier?”
Most of the time, there’s no memo. You work for an idiot.
Yes, even those of us who work for ourselves. Maybe especially so.
Fed Week, Happy Rally
The Germany DAXI – which had its ass thoroughly kicked last week – was showing signs somewhere between a dead cat bounce and an old-fashioned religious revival today. 90-minutes ahead of the U.S. open (*markets, not golf silly!) up 2-percent and change. Danke. (Cooled a bit as the day moved on.)
And speaking of donkeys, the (not really) Federal Making-Up Money clown posse gavels in tomorrow and pronounces their rate hike on Wednesday. Smart money bet is they will raise a quarter because (Ker-powell!) the Fed has tiny goanies. And besides, the “official rate” doesn’t really matter.
The reason? The Fed’s instructions to their trading desk – the ones who have been fighting off collapse by making up money and buying orphaned assets – matter more.
Weasel-Wording by Deluxe
On their “Policy Normalization” page (it’s normal to make-up money) the Fed’s outline goes like this (assuming you know SOMA means System Open Market Account, and when unequivocably think the Fed should set rates and not compete in supposedly “free markets” at all, but I digress:
- The Committee intends to reduce the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings over time in a predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts reinvested of principal payments received from securities held in the System Open Market Account (SOMA).
- Over time, the Committee intends to maintain securities holdings in amounts needed to implement monetary policy efficiently and effectively in its ample reserves regime.
- In the longer run, the Committee intends to hold primarily Treasury securities in the SOMA, thereby minimizing the effect of Federal Reserve holdings on the allocation of credit across sectors of the economy.
To put this in Casino Lingo: The little people will see rates go up Wednesday (unless the Fed Chiefs are nuttier than I thought). But that’s for us small players at the
craps housing table and playing the slots bank card machines.
The REAL high-rollers game is going on in the back alley where the NY Fed wheels and deals via the Trading Desk. (Which is why the web page for how many dollars of overnight and other has changed addresses…but don’t start me on that…)
Bottom Line: Rates are likely up a quarter (“a garter” as my broker called it back when there were actual smart brokers before “account shepherds only.” But the Big Money, Big Money (nods to Vanna) they get comped into the back-alley game.
Raising rates “officially” while letting the trading desk go the other way to their pals basically ensures the little people get screwed but the Too Big To Fail megalithic corporations all survive well enough to buy the next round of office holders in D.C.
Who me? Cynical?
Who Loves Brandon?
Have a look:
This is useful stuff. It’s a 0-100 chart – with the 50% line being where the transition from pessimism (less than 50) turns into optimism.
At 45.1 percent, the country is a bit soured (lies and more lies and a side of war) but we’re not into Omeprazole territory yet.
Be patient, our Q3 Recession will arrive on schedule, business activity will fall, unemployment rise, and the Rs will sweep D.C. But, in the end, no cleaner than ever since everyone in politics is fighting over an empty cookie jar, near as we can figure it.
Notwithstanding economic reality, the Fed raising rates will be touted as the right medicine for right now. Over-correcting will lead to Disaster – again. By then, however, another scapegoat (maybe China for taking Taiwan) will be wheeled out and sold to the flock (AmeriSheep) like the newest brand of soap.
Banks Are Getting Desperate
This is a HUGE warning sign that popped up this morning. I went in to my online national bank system to transfer funds and to zero-out a credit card (which I do every day or three) due to my recent parts-buying binge. And what to I see on the account summary page?
“Important Payment Posting Information
Payments may take up to two business days to post to your account and will be applied on the date they’re received.”
This, dear reader, is absolute, 100 percent bullshit. There is literally zero flight time from one balance to another. Like measured in minutes – such is the nature of computers and SQL databases. Even the old COBOL back-end stuff which some banks still rely on (‘cuz it works).
OBVIOUS TO US: The banks are trying to push all credit card users over into the “paying interest” column now that the specter of rising rates is upon us.
BE WARNED: If you’re used to doing a transfer to pay off your cards on a certain day of the month, go look for their “screw the customers, we’re the Bank” disclosure which is almost proudly emblazoned. Pissed? Me?
This tells me the banks are trying to push a few more people with big balances over into the “must pay us interest column.” Greedy bastards.
I think they’re in trouble. No severe, just enough to put the squeeze on the customer – not on the wild-eyed spree-spenders in D.C. which is where the blame belongs.
Investing in Toilet Paper
As long as we’re talking about money, the online “click-up and pick-up” session today offered another eye-bleeder: Cottonelle 24 roll equivalent (it’s really not, on our backsides) toilet paper which was $26-bucks last time we bought it was over $39 this morning.
(I mean since we were just talking bullshit, right?)
Thats 50 percent inflation, brothers and sisters. Far cry from the Officious Guberment statistics.
The feral reserve meeting this week will continue their BOHICA tradition as enablers of the D.C. spendocrats: The Fed sets inflation policy on “price increases other than food and energy.”
All in favor of the Bankster Barons living with zero energy and zero food, raise your hand now!
Cue Edwin Starr
And in today’s hysterical headlines: Russia seeks military equipment and aid from China, U.S. officials say.
“Please Make a Note of It”
The Associated Press reports Obama tests positive for COVID-19, says he’s ‘feeling fine’.
Vaccination sales pitch? Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla: Fourth Covid Shot ‘Necessary’. Er…z’at for medicine or revenue?
Then we get into the really macabre stuff:
Pushing up daisies – for real: My late husband was turned into soil at world’s first ‘human composting’ facility.
And One in three Americans take pain medication every single day, research shows. Does vodka count as a pain med?
Laying Out the Week
Well, here we go: Some bond auctions today. (NoDoz me.) Happy-talk out of Europe ands Ukraine to float things up.
Some PPI and Empire state data tomorrow. Wednesday retail sales in the morning, Fed pronouncement in the afternoon.
The balance of the week will depend on what the Fed really does. Because a junior rate hike can be completely overturned by simply pouring more money into the back-alley craps game.
So, a modest rally is possible today, but does that foretell a decline tomorrow to put pressure on the Fed? Whee! (shall see…)
There you have it…more than enough reasons to take it easy and be an hour late for work.
Write when you get rich,