Peak COVID, Peak Disruption, Stock Bottom

by

Time to play another exciting round of  “COVID Peak Calling!!!”

And who is our first contestant this morning?  Why it’s…

“Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S., subside in June -Washington University analysis.”

We’re not buying it, but it’s not a bad estimate, by any stretch.  The problem is what happens in India, Africa, and South America.  In our informal “back of the envelope” work, by May 1, the global case count should be around 38.535-million.  And U.S. deaths following could be closer to 135-thousand.

What’s more, since our mortality rate calcs are running 4.486% this morning, the global body count by then could be up around 1.729-million and the U.S. share (proportionately) ought to be around 75.065-million by May 1, but it could run another week or two from there and that’s where the higher estimate we cobbled up came from.  Except, the data will be very noisy because “social distancing” is not an even thing.

Why, if everyone would stay home for the next five-years….

Out here in the East Texas Outback, where people tend to live on acreage and not bumping elbows in the elevators, compliance is easy-peasy.  In Mid-Town, NYC, a little tougher and less convenient.  That’s one reason the virus strike team’s looking at publishing a set of “County Risk” assessments to guide local responses.

As far as I know, locally, the Palestine Herald reports the closest cases to us are some 45-miles north up in Smith County (Tyler, TX) with seven cases; but none here yet.  That is, officially.

The problem is that since we’ve been running numbers for my son up north (he’s a firefighter/EMT/safety officer) and plugging in our pop-data suggests we could have as many as 4.2 cases here right now.  Although, that would infer we won’t get a death in Anderson County, Texas, until out in the Easter timeframe (April 12, for atheists.)

Ugly Multivariate Compounding

What makes assessing personal plans, contingencies, strategies, and tactics so difficult is that depending on (location, location, location) the number of variables involved in future-modeling just becomes mind-boggling.

It’s not unlike “flying right-seat” with the Wright Brothers first time up.  You’re never sure is flying is doing to work out as your calculations indicate.

For most of this, there are three major sets of variables, if we put them into piles.

One pile is the supply line and resupply issues.  That’s where the snakes are now.

For American-Made goods, shouldn’t be bad and that’s grand because we do most of our own food, save that which comes in from the areas south of the Rio Grande Valley (TGV).  Where the supply chain is NOT robust is coming in from Asia.  Due in large part to not knowing exactly how bad things got in China.

The Chinese case-count is continuing lower than the USA count, but I’d sure as hell trust CDC numbers before trusting the “Party-approved” ChiCom data.  Oh, and the whole “Spy-vs.-Spy” angle of the world’s economic superpowers has to figure into the supply chain, too.  As China is now closing itself off to foreigners (Mind Dynasty Replay, anyone?).  And in order not to tip our hand on readiness, the U.S. dot-mil types aren’t talking about our troop’s health, either.

As a result, we are in a painful period of massive socio-economic readjustments.  That “roaring twenties” lifestyle we’ve been yammering about?  Going, going….

Foremost among which is you may notice the Internet being a little slower than usual.  We’re doing our part by limiting our graphics and compressing more – which may drop the quality of images on your phone, but all an analog of “social distancing” on the data front.

Recalibrating Your Thinking

As a useful tool for deeper-thinking, we don’t just need to “collect facts” – we also need some reasonable means to assemble them into useable information.  Remember those Business 603 classes?  Boy, I sure do.  Data is useless until it’s processed and assembled into information or knowledge which can then used to inform executive decision-making and action.

Much as I hate statistics, multivariate-thinking is like building a “coat rack for data” to hang on:

“Multivariate statistics is a subdivision of statistics encompassing the simultaneous observation and analysis of more than one outcome variable. The application of multivariate statistics is multivariate analysis.

Multivariate statistics concerns understanding the different aims and background of each of the different forms of multivariate analysis, and how they relate to each other. The practical application of multivariate statistics to a particular problem may involve several types of univariate and multivariate analyses in order to understand the relationships between variables and their relevance to the problem being studied.

In addition, multivariate statistics is concerned with multivariate probability distributions, in terms of both

  • How these can be used to represent the distributions of observed data;
  • How they can be used as part of statistical inference, particularly where several different quantities are of interest to the same analysis.

Certain types of problems involving multivariate data, for example simple linear regression and multiple regression, are not usually considered to be special cases of multivariate statistics because the analysis is dealt with by considering the (univariate) conditional distribution of a single outcome variable given the other variables.”

“How many trucks can move goods east out of Los Angeles on I-40?” is a kind of univariate problem. The freeway is x lanes wide and at 55 or 60, with normal spacing, there’s your limit.

On the other hand?  How many trucks – filled to 80% of capacity, with adequate fuel and food enroute – along with operating warehouses on arrival – becomes a multivariate problem.

Or not.  Because once you go down the multivariate rabbit hole, you pop into the simultaneous equations world:

“Simultaneous equation models are a type of statistical model in which the dependent variables are functions of other dependent variables, rather than just independent variables. This means some of the explanatory variables are jointly determined with the dependent variable, which in economics usually is the consequence of some underlying equilibrium mechanism. For instance, in the simple model of supply and demand, price and quantity are jointly determined.

Simultaneity poses challenges for the estimation of the statistical parameters of interest, because the Gauss–Markov assumption of strict erogeneity is violated. And while it would be natural to estimate all simultaneous equations at once, this often leads to a computationally costly non-linear optimization problem even for the simplest system of linear equations. This situation prompted the development, spearheaded by the Cowles Commission in the 1940s and 1950s, of various techniques that estimated each equation in the model seriatim, most notably limited information maximum likelihood and two-stage least squares.”

This is where people tend to get thrown under the statistical bus.  The terms get complicated, so you need to put on your thinking cap and use mental modeling to seek the truth you’re looking for.

Let’s go back to the Trucking problem on I-40.  We understand it to be a multivariate problem, but as such, any models we evolve will be subject to both feedforward and feedback.

Let’s take feedback first.  Obviously, if our truck, loaded with goods fails to arrive, there are lower chances of workers being around the next time a truck shows up.  Some may have starved to death, moved on, or whatever.  That would be feedback.  Cause followed by effect.  Feedforward is effect followed by cause in some related area.  Ummm…confused?

Feedforward is a little different in that the truck’s arrival triggers further future events in the arriving community.  People get food, go back to other jobs, making toilet paper we hope, and so forth.

We’re in a Crisis of Complexity

Ultimately, this is why the stock market is undergoing wild gyrations this week.

Because, as in our simple trucking example, we have a virus and it will spread.  Which is one set of variables.  But, we know spread can be contained through social distancing because no hosts means no passing it on.  Well, except for those asshole kids who went on spring break and then brought the disease back to the cities they came from…but that gives rise to yet-another variable.

Computationally, therefore, we have several ways to approach the problem.  One method is to model the overall supply chain and some n number of subsets, all of which are interoperative (feeding forwards and back)  in that you can’t run out of diesel for the trucks, but at the same time, you can’t run out of burgers for the drivers kind of thing. And every freaks about toilet paper…

OR

We can flip back through history to see how past economic collapse event-chains fell apart.  With (another) caveat that the rate of social breakdown and the ultimate workout will be different this time around.

Whew!  Didn’t mean to “go deep” on you, but this is nothing compared to tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report (“Evidence of Cultural Knowledge in Entanglement”).  In that one, we get down to the social substrate and “How Everything Works” level…up here, it’s back of envelope and pencils, please.

IRT (In Real-time) this morning’s short answer is “The puzzle answers MAY be seen by simply looking at a stock market chart comparing the present-day Aggregate of Market prices versus the Dow Jones Industrials which went through a similar propagating collapse period in 1929-1940.”  Like so:

Since we’re conserving graphics overhead, the low we just went through (March 23rd) lines up with the 1929 era’s first low (325.17) on October 4 of 1929.  And, of course, from there the ’29 market rallied back up to the 356.92 level which was set October 10, 1929.

There’s an argument that the market of present-day should not decline yet.  We really ought to rally a bit more next week.  However, if the “rally” is already over (we’re at the green circle in the chart based on early futures) then the low in the market could be set 35-calendar days from yesterday:   Comes out April 30th.

On the other hand, if the market were to peak at the end of next week, April 3, then this would suggest a bottom low of the market (if we’re stuck in walking in the same ruts as the last collapse) around May 8th.

The bad news is all this?  Well, there’s another tool I built a year or two back which is on the Peoplenomics subscriber site on the Master Index page over here.  “Download:  Brainamp.xls  A spreadsheet to estimate 5 Elliott Waves from Wave 1  data points.”

We’ll go through that on the subscriber side tomorrow…it ain’t pr3etty and we’ll need barf bags for all hands.

But depending on whether the market can “put on more beans” next week, that’s a stab at bracketing where we MIGHT/MAYBE/COULD go in the near future.  And that would be a retest of the 2009 market lows in early May.  S&P in the 600’s.

Does It Really Matter?

I’d be derelict if I didn’t mention the Personal Income and Expenditures report just out from the Bureau of Economic Analysis:  We read this like the stats from the wild excesses of 1929…Kinda like “How did our Roaring Twenties end?”

Personal income increased $106.8 billion (0.6 percent) in February according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 3 and table 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $88.7 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $27.7 billion (0.2 percent).

Real DPI Increased 0.4 percent in February and Real PCE increased 0.1 percent (table 5 and table 7). The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent (table 9).

Not that it matters:  Market futures were down more than 500 points on the Dow when I checked earlier.  But, I’m expecting a big running of the shorts rally into the close if short-term traders all head for the exits for the weekend.

That’s almost as much fun as going to a slaughterhouse to watch the squeeze chutes…

Meantime, the article on  ZeroHedge about why the “stimulus bill needs to be stopped” echoes many of our sentiments, we’re mindful that the fix is in and has been sitting there since last July when the democrats drafted HR 748…

And if you think the news lately is enough to drive you to drink?  Go read  Fortune’s The liquor industry faces an uncertain future. But if it survived Prohibition, it can survive the coronavirus.

We’ll try to “speak-easy” come Monday,  A month from hell just ahead.

Write when you get rich,

george@ure.net

99 thoughts on “Peak COVID, Peak Disruption, Stock Bottom”

    • This is why all talk of a “vaccine” is BS! Yes, there might be a “vaccine” possible, but it’s unlikely to be safe and effective. There’s also the elephant in the room – the real contents of such a “vaccine”!

      We created this problem set(COV, supply chain setup, JIT, stupid complexity, etc) and seem to have no real focus on eliminating it. Individuals and families can try to minimize it for themselves, but beyond that frame, there’s a real inability to make it so.

      Travel is essential to freedom, and when a loved one is 2000 miles away and can’t(or won’t) leave now, I fear that she’ll be sequestered in an untenable situation. Yes, I can go there(maybe) and then both of us will be stuck without resources.

      George, staying where you are WITH your loved one was and is the wisest decision!

      • @
        NM mike

        the CDC is part of the that can NOT be trusted…(ie. CDC study of GUN Deaths being a National Health Crisis)……missed on that one BUT…BULLS EYE ON THIS ONE….and any Vaccine ok’d by them will actually be WORSE than this virus….as TRUMP already KNOWS..when he says…quote…” THE CURE CAN NOT BE WORSE THAN THE SICKNESS”….he knows they are deep state criminals….imo

  3. George,

    I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that the mortality rate for Covid-19 is, in reality, is no where near 4.4%. It’s probably more like <1%.

    My math is this: Confirmed cases to date (worldwide) are 635,664. Deaths from Covid-19 (worldwide) is 27,601. That's a mortality rate of 4.34%.

    What's the real number of people that are infected or have been infected and survived? We don't know for sure, but if it's anything like the number of confirmed flu cases vs the number of estimated flu cases annually we can conservatively expect that the real number of Covid-19 infections to be easily 10-20x higher than the number of confirmed cases.

    That would put the real number to date somewhere between 6,356,640 and 12,713,280 cases worldwide. That would mean that the mortality rate is somewhere between 0.2% and 0.4%. I suspect that the real mortality rate is probably higher than the reported number because some deaths were attributed to the flu or something else, but by how much? Who knows? I also maintain that this virus has been with us for much longer than believed.

    Of course, if you or a loved one dies from this disease it's a terrible situation. I get it, but based on the my math above, I don't see a reason for crashing the world economy.

    Something else is happening. The world is being changed.

    Am I the only one thinking along these lines?

    MAJ13

    • Take a look at peak prosperity youtube video from yesterday. It goes through this logic that the virus has been a round a while and that many are already exposed and healed up, and we already have some level of heard immunity. He has some logic, math and data, that to me is convincing that it is still ramping up its exposure and will continue to grow, with the half assed quarantines and mask usage.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YN7aBiICz4

    • MAJ, as a qualitative researcher, I agree with your overall premise. However, it is standard practice to develop models based on what we do know, not on what we don’t. So, the 4.34% is the right way to process whatever numbers we actually have.

      That said, I personally think more in terms of a 1-2% death rate when I consider my own mortality or that of my family members. That is probably closer to actual lived experience, in the absence of any serious underlying health issues.

      • Totally right – with a caveat Gene:

        Bright people (*e.g. Urban readers) tend to be higher IQ types. That is, we are more active and when confronted with an obstacle, we tend to live “adapt, improvise, and overcome. We are rightly skeptical of adjuvants in meds, but pneumonia shots are a no-brainer. And that combo – brains, activity, prophylaxis would intuitively account for our readership have experientially a much lower mort rate.

        That said, the Bell.Gaussian distro says in the double-digit IQ range people would not behave so well. They would be inactive, not smart enough to follow the leading edge of spread, and would wash their hands on a sporadic basis, not like fundamentalists of the Hibiclens Faith.

        I would expect this same group would eat lots of sweets (as opposed to our NONE) and that many smoke and chew. Swear to God, I can walk into a room of 60+ people and point to the ones that don’t keep active, eat sugar, and have smoked or chewed for a lot, and have underlying health issues.

        In some populations that would likely drive a mort rate of >6%.

        I’m glad we’re so close on our estimates…not even worth quibbling over, since there is so much spread in the various variants found so far.

        Thanks for your thoughtful comments!

      • Gene,

        I can’t argue with your approach. I’m not attempting to down play the risk to certain groups. I have family members that are well within the ‘high risk’ category and I’m not taking things lightly with this situation.

        What I’m struggling with processing is the global ‘response to stimuli’ that we’re witnessing. It seems disproportional as compared to other, equally deadly diseases like the flu and others that we deal with each year. That was the main point that I’m attempting to make.

        MAJ13

      • ROTFLMFAO!

        I’m eating Skittles and having a smoke while I read your comments George.

        Although, eating candy is super super rare for me. Hahahahah!

        Total “sync wink”. Ohhhhh there is that “wink” from the dollar store! Hahahhahaha

      • Maj – what you’re saying is what I keep hearing from friends that I’ve been trying warn about this since January – “The numbers just aren’t there”. Do you WANT to wait until the numbers equal that of the regular flu because they have amply demonstrated the ability to do just that? The R0 number for this virus outstrips anything the regular flu – which I’m coming out from under right now – can throw at us.

      • “we are more active”

        George, I’ve read a couple of doctors who’ve postulated that once you have the bug, more activity is contraindicative, because it moves the virus faster than the body can cope. I don’t have a cite or a study, but am just throwing this out there — as a point of contemplation.

      • “I’m eating Skittles and having a smoke while I read your comments George.”

        LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL… I know how you think I was eating a snack cake at the same time.. wondered just how the men in uniform reacted at the crispy cream shops across the nation.. LOL LOL LOL LOL…
        Eat Desert first then the meal..and never buy green banana’s at our age.. or buy to many you just don’t know how long you have left.many struggle to look eighteen again.. I was that way for a while.. even thought about getting that toupe that was the same color of my hair when I was twenty LOL LOL… only to discover that I am still an old man.. . LOL LOL LOL LOL
        the days of eating squash and rice cakes with a seaweed stopping is long gone LOL LOL LOL LOL…although I do like squash.. and the rice cakes I like to day are called rice crispy bars LOL..
        and seriously who do we have to impress so eat the dam cake and enjoy your senior moments..

        for the gentleman that commented on it taking out the young.. obviously you haven’t been paying attention.. from what I have read it was designed to be the scariest nimrod out there.. it may take down a half of a percent.. or four percent.. but the damage is done from the virus and from what I understood the mutation level is big enough that the only thing they can do is come up with an affective treatment.. like the flu a full vaccine is impossible. and once the damage is done on the next up.. the next year it could take them down then leave the remaining with the damages done for the next round…. massive shut downs could be the seasonal wave of the future..
        https://youtu.be/J6VEYzwSdZU
        I had read a few papers on it from the woman that gave the initial warning that it was loose.. god rest her soul..
        of course we will never know for sure what is and what isn’t.. most of the research work that was available has been pulled from the internet..
        and at this point does it make any difference anyway.. we deal with it..
        my curiosity is will the greedy Dimwitts in manufacturing see the light and move manufacturing back home.. or will they still play the musical chairs and keep it someplace else just to watch this all unfold once again..

    • I agree about the numbers, we do not have enough data, and it is surely an underestimate of the number of infections.

      Also, about the changes. The actions taken by local government are in part long held desires to make massive changes. Simple stuff like allowing grocery stores to stop taking back our bottles. The stores have wanted out of that game since the 70s and the alternatives have been built in the last decade. (quasi government recycling centers) It will never be safe for grocery stores to take back bottles any time soon. This one simple thing is a permanent change.

      Never let a good crisis go to waste – at the least. At the worst? An engineered take down based on really really crappy data.

      • Lol the stores have been taking back bottles ever since I was a kid and trust me that was a lot of years ago,probably more years then you are old,and business should be required to sell their product in glass bottles and spare the landfill dumps which for far to many is their final resting spot,but then again we would have to change our thought on the throw away mentality of the business sector,from T.V. appliances to you name it,made to only last for a certain time so it can go to the dump and you can buy a new one.!!!

    • MAJ13, you said: “Something else is happening. The world is being changed.

      Am I the only one thinking along these lines?”

      Yes, for one – me, and probably more.

      Every year the media seems to want to stir a panic of some kind. It seems to be a concerted, continuous effort to keep the masses confused and upset and ready to strike out at something (not really knowing at what).

      Here is a proposal in the media that keeps re-occurring in some form each year. “One World Government”.

      https://www.wnd.com/2020/03/former-british-prime-minister-wants-1-world-government/

      • jw, I have no problem with a one-world government, in principle. However, where the one-worlders demonstrate their lack of intelligence and foresight is in their assumption that a one-world government would be like, or even better than, the one we currently have.

        The U.S. has been accused of “nation-building.” We haven’t. What we have done is attempt to influence other nations through bribes (“Foreign Aid”) and covert-OPs. Were we an actual “nation-builder,” Japan and West Germany would have become representative republics under a charter based on the U.S. Constitution after WW-II, when we had the absolute ability to make them so.

        The vast majority of “successful” marginally-socialist nations are so because the U.S. is such a huge consumer of both product and labor, both foreign and domestic, that other nations have been able to sustain their, mostly parliamentary socialist democracies by feeding from our trough.

        Norway is both an exception and an outlier. They have a small, and relatively rigidly-controlled population, and Oslo controls a huge oil field. As long as there’s a demand for oil, unless the hole runs dry they’ll be self-sustaining.

        No other nation is.

        If the U.S. went tango uniform, every other “Western” nation would fail within a few years because socialism is not a sustainable social or governing philosophy without a steady influx of external capital & demand. If Stu’s predicted Civil War II gets here, it will soon also come to, and probably consume, 153 other nations within 20 years. Populations tend to get really p!ssy when they’re hungry…

    • MAJ13, No your not the only one. One world government is on the way.

      Having fun cruising to the end

    • You’re probably right about the number of infected being low, but I don’t think it’s safe to assume the fatality count is accurate either, especially not the count provided by China. There was evidence that they cremated a whole lot more bodies than they reported.

  4. Good report G,

    I think you are right May crash. May is a month away. Today MI begins Quarantine Day 4 of 21.

    The serfs get their $1,200 payday loan on the 6th…. What will they pay?

    Rent or
    Car and send check to former employer for unpaid monthly medical premiums
    Food and utilities or
    Credit card/Internet/cell service.

    I’m glad I’m not a landlord. Anti-eviction rules are starting to pop.

    Falling one or two months behind in expenses takes a year to recover from. The peeps who really do need a government loan to float the month will never recover.

    Government will have to loan them another $2,400 in May for sure.

  5. George, I’m curious if you’ve read the David Horowitz article about the timing of the virus. I’m in a variety of facebook groups, homeschooling, books, canning, and quilting. I’ve lost count of the number of people who have told me that they had CV19 symptoms in January and February. A few of them even progressed to pneumonia. None of their doctors were able to identify the disease, and only treated the symptoms. Anecdotal, but they need to be investigated, imo. So, my question: If these people actually had it as early as January, with a 14 day incubation period, the disease has likely been here since December. How does that effect transmission rates, and the date of peak spread?

    • I think you’re a month or two late. I’m aware of similar things happening in late November and December. Anecdotal, of course.

      Until proven otherwise, I’m of the opinion that it was in the wild in one form or another since the Fort Detrick lab was shut down in August of last year.

    • ” If these people actually had it as early as January, with a 14 day incubation period, the disease has likely been here since December.”

      Kimberly, forensic lab work at CDC has determined the virus could not have existed before the middle of October of 2019, but had to have existed by the end of November. Because of its flaky incubation time, and the facts it is incredibly contagious and becomes so, weeks before symptoms manifest themselves, it is entirely likely it arrived in the U.S. in December — when China was still assuring us “human-to-human transmission” was “highly-unlikely…”

  6. George,

    Went back and looked up the article on Frederick Klenner, MD. from Reidsville, NC. Seems that Dr. Klenner in 1948 was absolutely appalled at the effect the polio outbreak was having on American children.

    The article goes on to recount that Dr. Klenner treated 60 children who had already contracted polio with massive doses of Vitamin C (ascorbic acid) in IV form. The doses ranged from 6,000 mg to 20,000 mg daily depending upon the patient and severity of infection. All 60 children recovered completely.

    Subsequent trials have shown vitamin C to be effective on viral pneumonia, some forms of cancer, and sepsis. Of course the mainstream “authorities” and Wikipedia all discount the efficacy of vitamin C in treating viral infections, “because the proper studies have not been done”. Read through the BS, that means it is cheap, works, and Big Pharma does not stand to get richer from it.

    The human body tolerates IV vitamin C very well, whereas; oral high doses tend to cause intestinal upset, but the runs is better than being on a ventilator. Plus IV gets the vitamin in the bloodstream where it can do its’ thing best. Good luck finding a Dr. that will administer IV vitamin C. Too damn many lawyers around for them to try an “unproven” treatment. (daughter has a law degree)

    Dr. Klenner’s patients saw total recovery in 48 to 72 hours, with the exception of one young girl who was already paralyzed in her legs before being seen. She required three weeks, but recovered fully.

    Dr. Klenner broke the doses down in two hour time periods, so as to maintain a certain level in the systems at all times. Not a “one and done” hit for the day.

    Have read other articles about Vitamin C, and it seems each molecule of Vitamin C binds to a virus particle and renders it incapable of attacking human cells.

    Final note Black Elderberry extract has the effect of causing the body to expel phlegm, which would help reduce the collection of fluid in the lungs. (Think no ventilator needed)

    For now I am content to just stay on my farm, and keep people at a safe distance.

    • “Black Elderberry extract has the effect of causing the body to expel phlegm, which would help reduce the collection of fluid in the lungs. (Think no ventilator needed)”

      And a little black elderberry recipe (wine) goes down smooth..while watching a tv show..
      Actually my mom use to make a recipe. 1 part elderberry juice 1 part lemon juice 2 parts raw honey
      Each of us took a tsp a day .
      I dont know if it was any good except it taste good.
      I make an elderberry cordial to.. similar to sloe gin

    • Megadose Vitamin C is now part of the treatment regimen in China. Hopefully, we’ll soon follow…

    • Stubborn Old Man:

      I am so very glad to find somebody else who pays attention to Dr. Klenner!

      Your post is spot on what what I have found.

      However, you might want to check out true Liposomal Vitamin C by Livon Labs*.

      According to Dr. Thomas Levy, it is upwards of 8 times more effective for some conditions (such as viral infections) than even IV C. And a damn sight cheaper!

      Most all the stuff marketed as ‘liposomal C’ is actually (at best) an emulsion and not nearly as effective).

      (*Available on Amazon.)

  7. If the liquor industry can survive the prohibition.. and it doesn’t have any benefits to fight against the virus other than being a disinfectant.. I wonder if it is time yet for congress to forget about what the cartels and other lobbying firms are spending on them and legalize marijuana so some real research can be done in the USA… rather than just the studies done abroad..
    statistics already show that those using it for recreation purposes already do and will no matter if it is legal or illegal..
    http://antiquecannabisbook.com/chap8/JohnLeeA.jpg
    https://youtu.be/ZdVRn9KhE64

    “Studies have shown that the cannabis plant has a plethora of health benefits. Cannabinoids like THC, CBD, CBG and CBC all help decrease inflammation around the body. Our body’s attempt to fight the cold and flu viruses automatically causes inflammation in the throat, sinuses, nose and lungs. The cannabinoids and terpenes found in cannabis may help drive down inflammation in these areas, and therefore relieve symptoms like a runny or congested nose. Cannabinoids found in the plant also serve to strengthen the body’s endocannabinoid system, which is essential for regulating the functions of our body, such as appetite, sleep and pain. These healing properties allow cannabis to provide a well-rounded relief from physical symptoms associated with the viruses.

    According to Dr. David Allen, cannabinoids like cannbidiol (CBD) helps to improve the immune system’s ability to protect the body from viral infections with cannabis serving as a natural antimicrobial that targets bacteria. Another expert in Cannabis Science, Dr. Robert Melamede, who is also a researcher and past Chairman of the Biology Department at the University of Colorado Springs (UCCS), states that cannabis can also be used to treat more serious influenza strains such as Bird Flu and Swine Flu. Dr. Melamede studies show that cannabinoids decrease the immune systems reaction whilst also preventing over-activity that can have serious and even fatal results.”

    • The studies are done abroad so they can patent all they want and then make the profit. Oh, NO, American can never do anything to bring a profit here! We are a service economy and a consumer economy, they’ll feed us and dose us what they want.

  9. TREASON SEDITION and SUBVERSIVE ACTIVITIES

    George – we need to be wery,wery qwuite – whunting rabbits this AM..

    F -ery defined = Deep State..

    CIA – great idea originally – too bad putting German Spies in charge of it – 1st Three Directors -at least.. Ass Admiral hillenkoetter/walter bedel smith/allen dulles..TRAITORS.

    DVD setup Corea Group – in Frankfurt – to control CIA ..does battle with Americans for control of agency..to this Day
    – betcha cant guess which group Bush Sr &Jr worked for?
    Seniors nickname ..grouppenfurher., U saw the funeral?

    Go ahead – filters/controls have been lifted – google madeleine mcCann police sketch abductors.. 3 images of abductors – 3 Mirror images! – of John Podesta/Tony Podesta & Ghiselaine Maxwell – The little girl was “ordered” like a menu item by a “royal” on yatch -just offshore . These people are very sick..

    FEAR IS THE CONTAGION

    Definition – Traitor – person who Betrays Another, a Cause, or Any Trust
    – person who Commits Treason by Betraying His or Hers Coutry

    New Moon tonight – The hunters Have Become the Hunted &Trapped.

  10. Well I see we have a lot of ifs,maybe’s,could happen but without all the numbers and a understanding of this bug no one really knows, for its way to early to try and make any predictions of where its going or how many will become infected and how many will die.I think I will go along with what my father always said when in the fall someone would ask him what thought the winter would be, “ask me in the spring,then I can tell what kind of winter we had” was always his reply, and this bug is the same way,ask next year and I can tell you all the numbers and figures on both how many were infected and how many died.

    One thing tho that is certain is the the working class will get screwed over again, but then again haven’t they always as, what passes for elected people thunder austerity for all,well except for us that is.Going to get interesting down the road with the lay-offs looking like 1929 all over again, as business tries to sell the only thing lacking will be the customers as they will spend the next year or two trying to dig themselves out of the hole.!!!

  11. “a painful period of massive socio-economic readjustments”

    Perfect descriptor George. I am not sure what percentage of people can make the adjustment. I expect we are going to see the worst and the best of humanity over the next few months.

  12. As I read the media’s attention to Gov. Cuomo’s negative comments to Pres. Trump’s efforts to provide NYC even more support and supplies, I remind myself that he has a strong position in the Dem Party to put himself forward as the Presidential candidate. In other words, he is in my opinion politicking on the needs of his political base.

    All areas of the US need help.

    https://www.newsweek.com/andrew-cuomo-overtakes-bernie-sanders-odds-democratic-candidate-amid-new-york-governors-1494529

    • Well you can have him we don’t want him, he’s forced on us by N.Y.C. he’s passed to many bills by the dark of the moon so there is little to no discussion on them.!!!

    • The “media” and the Democratic Establishment are desperate, and scared to death. The Establishment recognizes there’s small chance they will defeat Mr. Trump in the General, but there’s always a chance, and their current choices are two doddering old men, one a hardcore Socialist, the other, the guy who was given the Vice Presidency as insurance that Mr. Obama would never be impeached, because no one in their right mind would want Biden to become da Prez.

      Creepy Joe has been in politics since 1973 and his “fumble-tongue” has been a source of much entertainment for politics-watchers since the 1970s, but it’s now on display, front & center, and everyone is getting a dose.

      Cuomo has been bleating and crying because neither Obama nor Trump cleaned up his mistakes. The CV is bringing some of them home to roost. He is an horrendous Administrator and leader which, as Governor of the State of New York, is (unfortunately for the “upstaters”) his job description. He’s copying well right now, because the “media” is never going to tell the ignorant masses the stuff he wants Trump to do, is stuff he should already have done, because they’re in “anybody but Joe or Bernie” mode. I expect Trump to win in November, and 4mln Americans to die from CV-19 or its complications before we get the cure. If Cuomo (or Biden, FTM) were President, I’d expect the death toll to be between 30-50mln…

  13. George,
    President Xi came to USA and meet Trump at Mar-A-Lago. There he said they ,china,has a choice,Trade world wide without American security to police the world,since bretton wood agreements fight Japan,Taiwan,Phillipines,Indonesia for control of Oil lanes from Mideast. His country falls apart,or turn inward and fight to maintainChina as a unified nation. No regional Warlords. China has been unified for 200 years under the Mongols and for last 75 years under communists with American Security guarantees. Out of 5000 years of history. Not unified,warring factions. China needs Energy,coal,Oil,food, fertilizer and everything else. They are crashing.
    Read Peter Zeihan,Accidential Super power,Absent Superpower and DisUnited Nations,just out 3March 2020.. What he describes is happening. Demographics,unique perspective and very right. Economist,demographer,oil expert,and other fields 10 plus years stratfor,their generalist,Now with his own company.. Read his stuff. Answer some of your questions and lots of other folks too. Helps make your views more timely,and fit in
    Also,yes something besides a Pandemic is going on. Big squeeze on precious metals,very hard to get unless you pay a big premium,strange shortages of stuff

    • You do realize that stratfor is an intelligence group who have been used much like the C.I.A. to aid the cause of certain business groups,which makes him more than suspect so I would’nt put to much faith in a person that’s had his thinking shaped by others..

      • Of course. You do realize, of course, unless you’ve apprenticed at a Stratfor or Jane’s, or under John Pike, you don’t have the ability to engage in strategic intelligence, nor the knowledge to apply whatever you can learn outside a security clearance, to do so down the road…

      • A lot less intelligence and a lot more common sense will push us a lot farther down the road,we would have a lot less wars and the treasury would be much fuller,rather then a bunch of nitwits trying to figure out ways to screw other countries along with our own people.Now the intelligence groups live in their own little world many times outside of the government, running drugs and weapons of war,Syria, Libya,Iran and Afghanistan are perfect examples, and before that it was the Death Squads in South America,as general Butler said he fought all over the world for American business.A pox on them all, the dealers in death and destruction are no tribute to America or its people.!!!!

    • Interesting PM market indeed! Ask prices are through the roof, bid prices are heavily discounted. Gold seems a bit more honest than silver at the moment, but both are so manipulated that the only way to get an honest deal is to peddle on Ebay or Craigslist.

    • Do you have the same checking account that you used to pay your 2019 taxes? I heard on the news 2 to 3 weeks if they can find your account. If they have to send you a check, good luck getting it quickly.

      • JTB: my vision showed me that America’s trading partners will drop the dollar as the world reserve currency and it will happen right around Easter. Which Easter, I do not know.

  16. I ignored my buy signal because of the extreme volatility may be skewing the numbers. I remember the last quarter of 2018. The market has closed above its 10 day moving average for the last 3 days. Paint me: UNDECIDED.

  17. OOW Steve,
    The anti-eviction laws are a Pandora’s box. While it may help the tenant that is temporarily laid off, it doesn’t help the landlord who has a mortgage to pay. Not all landlords are rich. Many landlords I know are full time landlords, in that this is their only source of income. Now, some banks are allowing people to defer their payments in a forbearance type of situation. That doesn’t forgive the payments, it defers them. The landlord still has to pay the bank those deferred payments. What happens when that tenant gets his job back, is the landlord allowed to ask for back rent?

    I am sure there is a solution, but going back to The 2008-2010 crisis, there will always be opportunists that will try to game the system and purposefully not make their payments.. I can hear the cry already….” Trump said I can’t get evicted, so I ain’t makin’ that rent payment”.

    I have seen this scenario before when the banks offered relief to people who were underwater on their mortgages or had adjustable loans they stupidly signed off on that adjusted to rates beyond their ability to pay. While some were real victims, others gamed the system and just stopped paying their mortgage, daring the banks to take their house away.

    It worked for a while for some, at least until the banks did get bailed out and used that money to foreclose on the very people that wrongly were gaming the system…but in their defense they were also the people the banks preyed on to underwrite those bad loans…and the rest is history.

    I am already hearing the same rhetoric as I did in 2008-2010 from people about this anti-eviction policy. Programs like this have to be thought through and solved throughout the financial chain…because there are consequences for those at both ends…and it’s going to take a hell of a lot more than $2 trillion to solve that.

    • “I have seen this scenario before when the banks offered relief to people who were underwater on their mortgages or had adjustable loans they stupidly signed off on that adjusted to rates beyond their ability to pay. ”

      Now, that there was the actual cause of the last bursting bubble. It was the Government who told lenders they HAD to make those loans.

      They’re here to help, remember… ;-)

      • Not totally true Ray. While the Government did tell banks to ease their lending requirements, the banks took it to another level and executed predatory lending practices and sub prime loans, packaged into crazy credit default swaps allowing the wolf’s of Street to bet against market-based mortgage-backed securities, for profit.

    • Property Taxes; you are forgetting the Property Taxes! These landlords who now, for example, in our city, may not get rent for up to FOUR months, still have an upcoming property tax bill to pay on those rentals. They count on those rents to make those property tax payments, and insurance payments, not to mention loan payments if they owe a mortgage….

  18. Into the woods we go then..Dr Paul Stamets – Mycologist extraordinaire.

    This is the guy that figured out Bee Colony Collapse – Timber Industry killing themselves with Clearing practices -removes rotting trees/hosts for polypore fungi – removes Bears /prevents Scraping which in turn is where polypores grow.

    Turns out Bees use the stuff (Propolis)to rid/kill/neutralize Toxins/Bacteria and Viruses .

    Mycelium mat largest living creature on the planet – must know something.

    “Pollies” are only Natural substance known to Kill both Virus AND Bacteria In Vivo.

    The oldest known hard wood poly is leading candidate in Anti- Cancer Studies on-going – NIH

    Other “hardwood Polies”: glossy ganderma/reshi, trametes veriscolor/turkeytail=Phase2 trial ongoing, and coots fav Chaga.

    Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn used Chaga Tea while incarcerated in Ruskie Gulag to Treat his Testicular Cancer – self provided..CLEARED.

    *Anecdotal Evidence leaking out of China suggests Chaga Tea as a Antidote for Hardening Ure body against the FEAR Plandemic.

    Goodness knows coot been taking Chaga tea for ages, same with Turkeytail and Reshi – both in coots’ late night nip&tuck Chai drink.

    PM’s look dicey as all hell – waiting for more Panic Selling/Margin Call Selling to get good Entry points/prices. Plenty of Metal out there – Liquidity looks like crap.

    Bitcoin – DCA baby..all day everyday..HODL

    SPY – coot dont trust this BS – market needs to Re- Test recent lows – Period

    So selling the Sppoooz – Trading/Scalping Miners&Streamers – they got metal.

    Buying Mushroom Growing Kits – should be mildly entertaining. Have grown creamy oysters and the like before..Yum

    G U Got Schrooms?

  19. See the normal routine in Washington without a strong leader, this one bickering with the other,Turkey and Mexico are floundering to keep from going under,nations all over the world are crying they need money to service their debts,the housing market is in trouble again but yet again it was never addressed in 2008 just papered over with our mentality of just throwing more money at it.

    Then we hear that China is going bankrupt but yet China a lot better off then we are, with our trillions x40,next we will hear that the gas pump known as Russia will go bankrupt while they busy trying to help other countries with the virus,their heavy transports flying equipment and supplies to other nations along with personnel to fight it,I’m sure Serbia,Iran and Italy appreciates it.

    Now would be a very good time for Trump to clean out his administration,Pompeo, Esper and a few others can go they are nothing but trouble ,a good time to bring back the troops from the Mid-East to help fight the virus, and the promises he made to the voters to get out of wars,but I’m sure he will squander the opportunity,a good opportunity to clean up wall street and jail those that have caused this,along with the Clinton’s and some of their friends.We will see if he’s up to the task but I doubt it for the show must go on.!!!

    • @bluedogg

      most of us here really know the only answer to saving this country IS the way it was birthed…..BUT this enemy is among us….not across the pond…..many seats of government such as in DC and some States fit…the bill…..and history is not very kind….Semper Fi

  20. Don’t worry about the interstates out of California handling the truck traffic. They can carry much more than they do now in a pinch. The problem is getting the freight to the ports, off the ships and to the warehouses. Most of the freight out of the ports of Long Beach and L.A. is from China. I have made hundreds of loads out of SoCal to the southeast and mid west….90% came from China. If China slows down OR decides to teach us a lesson for disrespecting them, we are in a hurt. Lets hope they stay hungry for our money….Now about the truckers…This disease can be slowed, but will never be eliminated till there is a cure. One symptomatic trucker can spread it coast to coast in a week….truckers do not stop working when they get sick, they run till they drop. If they are able to climb up into the cab they keep going. Many will know they have covid19 and just keep running… Most people only have mild to moderate symptoms, sore throat, sneezing,cough…it’s just a cold. An otr driver can stop in 20 states in a week…dropping that “cold” off at every truck stop and loading dock he hits. I was an Independent for 35 yrs; i know what I am talking about. So I am convinced this disease will be with us until there is a vaccine, it mutates or just goes away, like the Spanish flu did.

  21. Surprisingly we hear nothing from the “basic income movement.” Woudn’t this be the perfect time to initate basic income for all?

    • As a final thought for to-day: All of your life is created in your mind first, by thinking about it, before it materializes into world events.“It is done to you as you believe, NOT as you desire.”

      Therefore be careful with your discussions, because events happen to accomodate your beliefs, IMHO!

  22. Just saw a Train with 100 Tanks heading east line towards LA. We saw another train head to LA yesterday with 200 HumVee’s.

    I’m sure there’s nothing to see here. Move along. Move along.

    Lol

      • Sounds like just before the Iraq war. I hauled 3 loads of uniforms from Alabama to the San Diego naval base. Trains and trucks loaded with military equipment everywhere you looked heading west. When your seeing that kind of military movement there is something going to happen somewhere.

      • Yup! They are getting in position now. Couple more months and LA will be a dry tender box, smothered in gasoline just itching for a single match stick.

    • ‘Tis the season for annual wargaming at the Army’s National Training Center at Fort Irwin which is half way between LA and Las Vegas. This movement is probably just units bringing in their equipment for the training.

  23. Might find this of interest: “Status of COVID-19

    As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

    The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

    The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.

    The need to have a national, coordinated response remains, but this is being met by the government’s COVID-19 response.

    Cases of COVID-19 are no longer managed by HCID treatment centres only. All healthcare workers managing possible and confirmed cases should follow the updated national infection and prevention (IPC) guidance for COVID-19, which supersedes all previous IPC guidance for COVID-19. This guidance includes instructions about different personal protective equipment (PPE) ensembles that are appropriate for different clinical scenarios.” https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#history

    Also this about vitamin C https://youtu.be/joZdy4X1V9I

    • The 4 nations public health group’s March 19th report is being misinterpreted. It simply moved covid-19 out of the basket of high mortality illnesses like ebola. The group’s March 20th statement directed that covid-19 research be moved to the forefront with all else being deferred.

      Confucious might say the West is dying by a thousand cuts?

  24. Well the youngest son just come home said he didn’t know what we would do, as we just sent the crew back to work yesterday morning,after being down for two weeks.He said they showed up on the job site this after-noon and said he either shut the job down and sent the crew home or we would be fine $10,000 for every day that they worked.!!!

  25. Trump signed it. “I’ll pay you when I get my income tax.” We’ve become a payday loan country.

    Remember the rhyme “There are no atheists in foxholes”…

    “There are no fiscal conservative Republicans in government.”

    • Thanks for the reminder.

      George, not all religions celebrate Easter thus not all non-Christians are atheists. Or are you taking another stand?

  26. Tonight, George Noory, on Coast to Coast AM will conduct a live Prayer Experiment to combat the dire effects of the coronavirus. A million plus listeners praying will be a powerful virus deterrent. Faithful Prayer is a powerful healer.

  27. An obviously ill informed realtor showed a house yesterday in the mid-peninsula (San Mateo County). A neighbor called the police and the Realtor was ticketed and fined $600. I am glad that there is law enforcement tied to this, or we will not succeed in curtailing the spread of the virus.

    On another slimy note…but still in the stupid department, Trump said this last night on Hannity about the stimulus package.

    “In all cases, we intend on getting the money back, getting interest, and in many cases, some cases, issuing what they call warrants. We’ll get pieces of the company, large pieces of the company.”

    Trump seems to suggest here that in exchange for the loans for business contained in the $2 trillion economic stimulus package, the government will take ownership — at least part ownership — of the companies. Are they companies aware of this? It certainly would seem they wouldn’t want this at all. Mainly because it isn’t really capitalism. IT sound like something Putin would do…Oh…now the Russian connection is making more sense now.

    • I’m sorry mark but your way out in outer space,lol we don’t have capitalism what we do have is state socialism,which we have had for the last 40 years as everything is tuned to the business/banking sector,didn’t 2008/09 teach you anything at all where they spent trillions upon trillions bailing out those sectors,now lets see how much they gave main street which came to a flat zero.

      Now I’m no Trump man but in this case hes right, if you want a bail out then give us a chunk of the business, after you repay it with interest you can have the share back,but this is a one time bail out if you can’t run your business we will sell to someone who can,and he’s also right in not shutting the country down.Now you may and do demonize Putin and Russia like a lot of other nitwits, but he’s showed the way to fight and beat the half breed son of the SAR’S virus or so they say.Putin’s a damn smart man we could use one like him as he told the people your getting a weeks paid vacation,also many other benefits for the PEOPLE which will be coming from the tax on financial transactions,also everything is open nothing is shut down,don’t let your hate for Trump blind you to the facts.!!!!!

    • Say, didnt I hear that somewhere before???

      “There is a great possibility that the US Government will assume control of a few large corporations”.

      Hmmmm…

      • This is the beginning of the mindset that will take over the news etc. Etc.

        They really think it’s their money. they really do. The amount of Hypocrisy and Ego of Everyone on Capitol Hill is absolutely stunning!

        When their pride gets smashed??? Its gonna be frickin Awesome!

  28. Black elderberry extract works very well in studies of Influenza type A. Does not do much for Influenza type B.
    Tamiflu costs 150 bucks, for 5 days. Shortens the course of type A nby 1 day out of 14..
    Black elderberry shortens the course by 5 to 7 days of Type A flu.Cost 9 to 13 bucks for a 5 day course. Very good
    Future conflicts Saudi’s VS Iran, East Europe VS Russia,Russia Vs Turkey,.Turkey Syria together against Iraq,maybe Iran too.
    China against Japan,Vietnam,Cambodia,Taiwan,Phillipines,.
    USA sitting back, building up/Fixing the USA. Developing for the Future. Not interested in Europe or Asia.

  29. HAWAII VIRUS CASE COUNT UP 14 TO 120 NOW. Two new on my Big Island for 7 here. Honolulu has 10 more for 87 now. Here’s the islands breakdown from HDOH:
    Total cases: 120 (14 new)
    Hawai’i County: 7 (2)
    Honolulu County: 87 (10)
    Kaua’i County: 5 (0)
    Maui County: 16 (2)

    Hospitalized: 8 (0)

    Hawaii ‘Stay at Home’ orders. Incoming persons subject to 14 day quarantine. Tourist industry closed completely.

    “A month from hell just ahead.”

    • This reads like the rabbit or Goliath frog problems experienced by Australia. Any scuttlebutt about resuming the sacrificing of virgins to the volcano gods?

      Thanks for the updates. Hawaii is like a petri dish. Understanding the spread of the disease is easier when you know what the constraints are.

  30. Tectonix GEO
    @TectonixGEO
    ·
    Mar 24
    Want to see the true potential impact of ignoring social distancing? Through a partnership with @xmodesocial, we analyzed secondary locations of anonymized mobile devices that were active at a single Ft. Lauderdale beach during spring break. This is where they went across the US:

    https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/status/1242628347034767361

    Damned selfish, narcissistic scheiß-Schwachkopfs…

    • LOL – You have no idea how funny that is, Ray.

      Here’s why: When I was considering a move in my broadcasting days to “do time” on KFRC there was a group in the Bay Area at the time. Bunch of hookers wanted to form a union’/lobbying group. Don’t remember if Carol Doda was involved (She was the owner of the “twin peaks” of San Francisco https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carol_Doda )
      Anyway, COYOTE was the name of the Hooker Group and it stood for
      “Cast Off Your Tired Old Ethics.”?
      Man, did they get coverage….er….

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