Our minimum downside target (38,856 on the Aggregate Index) was reached in the last half-hour. At last check we were in the 38,802 range.  Although some further declines are likely, we exited our personal short position this morning. Let’s just say we made “lunch money.”  (Hell of a lunch, Yowza!) More on what COULD be … Read More

Wow!  Just out from Case-Shiller/S&P: YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.7% annual gain in July, up from 18.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 19.1%, up from 18.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite … Read More

Breaking Data Headlines Matter.   When the Drudge Report ran this headline today, it meant to us that the Biden Administration has run out of patience with “the bankers.” This, in turn, leads to some well-placed speculation:  The U.S. Federal Reserve seems likely to undergo a “house-cleaning” and in most big organizations, that often means “the boss” … Read More

Just the easy stuff today.  Because sometime between now and Wednesday, one of two things is likely to happen: Either  a) we will see markets turn down in a vicious Wave (v) of a likely larger I down  OR b) the bankster class will pull out all the stops and try to turn this pig … Read More

(US – As in UrbanSurvival, of course.  Not the “jab-and slab” gang  So’s we’re clear.) Shop Inflation Although it’s speaking heresy to the ‘stupid woke’ that fact is many don’t have the brains God gave cats.  Yes, inflation IS real. An STS reader sent us photographic proof of how the “inflation game” is being played … Read More

Some hardcore economic reality leaked this week from one of the regional Fed chiefs.  But it’s not making headlines.  Maybe because it’s not a furtherance of monetizing Americans.  A refreshingly candid view of things ahead. Moral hazard abounds in America these days.  Particularly in economics. Would you walk into a crooked Casino if they had … Read More

A longish – but I figure quite important – ramble to begin with… It’s a discussion of how you look at piles of data.  And how sometimes, when you look, it’s what’s not there that matters. Background We will frequently cite something called our Aggregate Market Index when addressing things like long wave economic cyclicity in … Read More

Our Aggregate Index just hit:  39,793.92 See the highlighted box here: Now things will get interesting! Everyone to the high board?  Or can them pump this puppy up even more!!!??? Hype,, shuck, or dive? It’ll be the close that matters… Debrief in the morning. g

Our Aggregate just hit 39615.86 before the top of the hour.  May keep going, on momentum/overshoot, but we have now hit the Wave IV green zone target of 39,609.50. Whee!  (Bank of England is still printing, too!) (Widows and orphans to the lifeboats?)

How far will this likely Wave 1’s wave iv take us into rally land before we fall back to Monday lows (next week?)? Our Aggregate Index closed Thursday at 39,230.21…which (at 7 points) is a “close enough” for us: OK, the rally looks like it will continue on up this morning.  39472.6 on the early … Read More

Implementation note with the Fed (no change in happy-talk) report:  (fine print the financial press glosses over…) “Effective September 23, 2021, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to: Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 0 to 1/4 percent. Increase the System Open … Read More

Yes, the anti-fragile crowd could be wrong. Complexity might actually speed up – not retard – financial collapse.  It is entirely possible that while Nasim Taleb followers have been spouting off about how complexity will “save us” the exact opposite is likely true for reasons we will explore today. This is not to diss Taleb’s book … Read More

My consigliere and I are both very worried about the future.  So before we get into the blood and guts of current markets and “news” a few items that are beginning to pop up for next year. First, there are independent reports that in September 2022 there will be a major earthquake in Japan.  Something well … Read More