This is long. This is real. This is important. Bear with me.
My first real “news report” was done back in 1969. Over half a century ago. Sure, there have been gaps in the reporting (for serious management jobs and degrees), the love of “knowing news first” but doing it right never leaves.
Which is why we take an odd tangent this morning by marrying current news with home shop operations.
War is Probably Arriving
Several months back we warned about war over Ukraine. It now looks to us like we’re down inside the 60-day window before gunfire (and more) comes from eastern Europe. It’s going to be a mess. Start by reading Russia planning massive military offensive against Ukraine involving 175,000 troops, U.S. intelligence warns. It’s a good summary, look at the calendar. We’re (likely) inside 60 days. Let that sink in a minute.
Then take-in the comments of a retired Lt. Col. we call warhammer. He’s “calling the ball” on it this way:
“When info such as this is published on a commercial, UNCLAS military news site, the folks in the know are prepping us for likely armed conflict.
Traditional commodities and indicators paint a generally gloomy picture regarding war in the near term. Reflation is kicking into high gear; debt exceeds the $ to pay it down; gas, food, clothing and other key goods are becoming harder to get (dysfunctional supply lines); and defense funds and stocks are experiencing an up-turn. When we add all the saber rattling to the mix, my brain translates it all into war drums in the distance. History definitely seems to be rhyming, as Mark Twain observed.
Still, some traditional war commodity metals are fairly stationary with some, such as copper, forecast to decline in 2022. So, while hope remains, there is wisdom in advising Ure readers to prepare for the worst.
Our questioning of Joe Biden’s ability to lead around here – based on the clusterf*ck mess of “cut & run” from Afghanistan – is based on our assessment of how professional military middle/upper commanders (like warhammer) assess Chicken Joe’s cluster:
“U.S. standing with allies was not the only damage – Russia, China, Iran and N. Korea surely saw America’s chaotic actions in Afghanistan much like a raging bull views a red cape.
That’s you’re initial framing data in summary form.
Danger of Two-Front Wars
As if the Biden administration hasn’t screwed up enough with the Afghanistan debacle, we continue watching the conflict also pending over Taiwan.
Start with China’s Stepped-Up Operations Near Taiwan Look ‘Like Rehearsals,’ Says Defense Sec. Austin. Then continue on, pausing long enough on China’s Communists bash U.S. democracy to appreciate China is “internally-shaping” its population for conflict.
The idea that the U.S. fighting a two-front war could easily turn into a “global shit show” isn’t mine, alone. Nor my consigliere’s. It’s from others including Dr. Robert Farley, who wrote in The National Interest almost a year in advance of this war window on the importance of the two0front concept. As he explains it, the outbreak of war will not drive people onto America’s side, as was the case in WWII:
“Here’s What You Need to Remember: The alliance structure of any given conflict would depend on the particulars of that conflict; any of the Philippines, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan or Taiwan could become China’s primary target. The rest, U.S. pressure aside, might well prefer to sit on the sidelines. This would put extra pressure on the United States to establish dominance in the Western Pacific with its own assets.”
You would be well-advised to visit the National Review article and weigh Farley’s report seriously. Can the U.S. Military Still Fight a Two Front War and Win?.
TechWar is Here
While the U.S. is pretending to offload division-strength materiel into Greece under the pretext of upcoming NATO exercises, the reality is that the E.U. neocons, and the Biden passthrough network, are all hoping for war with Russia.
As I told Peoplenomics readers Saturday:
Port of Alexandroupolis, Greece Hosts US Largest-Ever Military Landing. Extending off this, my consigliere explained how the cargo will be routed up into the conflict zone.
The American Pendulum Swing
Beginning in the 1960s we can see a very-strong leftward swing in American politics. The conservative to middle (under President Eisenhower) was shocked when Nikita Khrushchev slammed his shoe on his table at the U.N. and announced “We will bury you...”
“The notorious shoe-banging incident occurred during a debate on 12 October over a Soviet resolution decrying colonialism. Khrushchev was infuriated by a statement of the Filipino delegate Lorenzo Sumulong charging the Soviets with employing a double standard by decrying colonialism while dominating Eastern Europe. Khrushchev demanded the right to reply immediately and accused Sumulong of being “a fawning lackey of the American imperialists”. Sumulong resumed his speech and accused the Soviets of hypocrisy. Khrushchev yanked off his shoe and began banging it on his desk.”
What has followed amounts to 62 years – about half of a long wave economic cycle in modern times – of digging the hole for us to bury ourselves.
It began with support of the drug culture and on numerous other fronts. And frankly, as an American centrist, we had gone too far to the right in America under Ike. The same “hidden forces” that (*likely) prevented General George Patton from becoming a domestic political power-house.
Although modern wokeness considers TV personality Bill O’Reilly a “right-winger” he is (to my view) more of a centrist. Who is only welcomed on “right-thinking” media which is somewhere near what used to be the Center. Point is, stripped of his sometimes rude and interrupting TV style, O’Reilly is an excellent historian. His book summarized at Killing Patton – Wikipedia is a must-read.
Bottom line? America had war “at the extreme right” and now – through the magic of historical revisionism, the political agenda-driving from the Courts, plus the mass-marketing of victimhood, drugs, open-borders, and aided by offshoring virtually all critical manufacturing, successively weaker politicians – selling out to corporations – have ignored the stark warnings in President Eisenhower’s “military-industrial complex” speech.
Thanks to the merger of the military-industrial interests with Big Pharma (see how well that’s working out for us???), I’d estimate America is perhaps at 25% of its WWII strength. Anti-American forces color math as racist and parents are waking up to the gender-changing agenda of ultra-liberals in K-12 education who don’t teach actual history, anymore.
This change of national mood is not a pin-point event, however. America’s political pendulum changes over years, not minutes. I personally think, however, that such shameful events as the killing of President Kennedy, happened because of forces who didn’t want Kennedy centering America any more than he already had. The Elite like this pendulum and use it to extreme advantage.
For future reference, we may come to view the departure of liberal Censor Jack fromi Twitter as the high point of the liberal swing.
Wars both in long wave econ interest rates, and in major social mood markers, are not to be trifled with. They mean something. Personal navigation obstacles.
Where the Home Shop Fits In
We see crystal clear evidence of the political swing from far-right to far left in how the American home shop has evolved.
You see, home workshops were very important during World War II because they provided for training and productive resources.
Again – referring to the political / social mood pendulum, we cast the legal attack on America’s industrial arts training programs as extremely detrimental.
Think about your home shop today. Could it do anything valuable in a war effort? Maybe.
But here’s the real point: Is there any skill you can personally demonstrate and train at home? How about teaching someone how to “spin” aluminum sheet? Can you teach someone to weld?
One of the reasons I’ve set up a 3D printer farm (and have been stockpiling ABS filament) is because it could come down to old people (who know how to use their hands and brains at the same time) trying to pass-down to the woke something beyond parroted political bullshit of no value.
We expect the return of “foxhole equality” sooner than later. Remarkable how few atheists you find under fire. Survival is a joint effort. Narcissistic social media will evaporate. Good riddance.
Personal Response Mapping
OK, we have a war likely coming. It will be savage but brief. After which (in G.A. Stewart’s work) it’s possible a “black king” will be able to gin-up a false peace. When that blows up in a couple of years, the global nuclear war will be game-on. That’s if you believe the Nostradamus timeline.
Even if you don’t like Stu’s take on how war can flash, an older book (1981) by Rene Noorbergen, Invitation to a Holocaust: Nostradamus Forecasts WWIII, offers a similar plotline.
In data terms, this is a cluster. Whether right? Meaningful? Ask me in a year.
Specific Lifestyle Changes
OK, we will not be “round 1” combatants. That will be Belarus, Ukraine, and that area. We also know that the war could light up as early as this weekend. The experience of drones being able to kill tanks is mounting. Fast logistics.
That said, however, the arrival of war – the sort that could turn off energy in Europe – has the potential to collapse the economy. As our subscriber ChartPack showed this weekend, we are now below a long-term average which – backtested a few decades – offers a line in the sand. Below which, out of stocks and into extremely defensive positions.
Personal Threat List
- EMP Plan: One possible front, in the lead-in to global war is EMP. Even if used over one corner of the U.S. that will stop (in the impacted areas) all electronic and online communications. The power grid will fail. We could be “in the dark” for years. (Potentially in as little as 90-days, or less!).
- Do you have non-electronic funds?
- Do you have alternative power?
- Do you have back-up comms?
- General Shortages: These are a common problem. Besides Hershey bars and nylons, one of the biggest WWII inconveniences was the shortage of tires, for example.
- What is your food, shelter, communications, energy, transportation, finance, and environment (including medicines) plan and stores in the event hostilities spread out of theater?
- What is your sustainability plan? Do you have seeds to put in an early garden this year?
- With no power, how does your sewage go away and the water keep running?
- Personal Security: I write this one down as a “woo-woo” event: If you ever watched the TV show Magnum PI, the two “dropped off” dogs that mysteriously appeared here this week have turned out to be as well trained as Zeus and Apollo (“the Boys”) commanded by Higgins. I gotta tell you, the Ure clan must have a HUGE karmic balance owed it to be afforded our own canine soldiers in time for field training before war. Weird, just weird, how this is rolling.
- Do you have long-lead surveillance?
- Ground sensors
- Alert animals
- Neighborhood comms…
- …this list needs to be long and detailed
- Do you have something other than defunded police around to watch your back?
- Cleaned and sighted weps
- Tear gas/NBC masks with N100 ratings
- Do you have long-lead surveillance?
Your Escalation Plan?
Here’s another thing most people don’t have: Fallback plans for an out-of-target-zone relocation. Which goes on the table as combatants escalate.
Since there’s no time to design and install enough concrete over the next 60-days, we’d offer strategic retreat as a quick research area. Short read but full of useful info is Strategic Retreat: New Ways to Address Old Problems. Just remember to leave enough rope behind for aggressors to hang themselves.
This isn’t just for the food and money run out, e-commerce ends, civil order breaks down after EMP stuff.
No, this is all about understanding how Russian and Chinese war planners would economically use their weaponry to disable America.
The idea isn’t to glass everything over. They will want enough pieces left to pick up and make something out of. Urban Survival thinking is now 25-years deep on this. You need to read “Russia’s Nuclear Weapons:
Doctrine, Forces, and Modernization” that dropped in September from the Congressional Research Service and is downloadable from the Federation of American Scientists here.
While you’re at it: Precision-Strike-Capabilities-report-v5.indd (llnl.gov). A little older (2018) and longer, but extremely useful.
For example, if you live in the Phoenix area, you can size up whether strategic retreat to somewhere up on the Mogollon Rim would make sense. Winter vacation place.
I suppose as a final read – in acknowledgement of China’s pending reunification war – would be Understanding the Risks and Realities of China’s Nuclear Forces by the Arms Control Association.
- Water: Got a large open catchment tarp coming. We have filtering for up to 200,000 gallons. Need to add collection to the metal roofs and change out the 55-gallon blue barrels. Check condition of the siphon pumps. Check of the back-up well is due.
- Food: I need to build a sunken greenhouse with solar cooling, yet, big enough to feed two. There’s too much loss in the open garden. Need large dog food supplies now.
- Shelter: Need to build the “lettuce room” off the music studio. But got the ground screws (galvanized) for the foundation ordered this week.
- Energy: Additional solar panels and controllers will be ordered this week. Grid-down wiring panel is a new idea which needs to be built. Also, additional lightning protection (likely fast enough for EMP).
- Transportation: A few barrels of ethanol free StaBil’ized gas could be added. So could another few hundred gallons of diesel for the tractor. New tractor battery and one for the truck. Excessive? Sure, but batteries will disappear in short order. Might pick up a tire patch kit and tools, as well.
- Environment: Meds, including TacMed wound kits are good. Elaine doesn’t think my toilet paper collection is so silly, anymore, either.
- Finance: It very easily might not matter. No grid means no financial system. Our strategy has been “rounds or rounds” oriented.
- Communications: Got to keep in touch with the family. So, a new antenna will be going up in the next couple of days. Having children everywhere but here is a pain. As William at the Radio Ranch mentioned in a recent comment:
- When either TSHTF or the Bad Day or The Ballon goes up
or the GDE (Global Disruption Event) occur, then:1) 3.999 LSB by night and
2) 7299 LSB by day.
- On the :15 and :45’s.
(By the Sun, not by the clock.)Spot, exact frequencies — no floundering around.
If busy, wait for a gap.For Ure-nauts;
Identification authenticating phrase is:
“Everything is a business model.”Recommended Beginner First step:
https://www.amazon.com/Ham-Radio-Dummies-Computer-Tech/dp/1119454840/ref=sr_1_2?dchild=1&keywords=dummies+guide+to+ham+radio&qid=1615393178&s=books&sr=1-2 Tempis is fugit-ing like crazy….
- When either TSHTF or the Bad Day or The Ballon goes up
Off to drone an antenna into a hundred-foot pine. After more coffee, couple of slabs of ham, and my Bailey’s & nutmeg French toast.
Write when it’s safe. If Russia calls-up reserves? Three week shot clock has started.
P.S. As a reader mentioned:
In Chinese “omicron” kind of sounds like which means “I destroy the communists”