There are seldom days when the Collisions of Complexity becomes clearer. Because we find ourselves, at click-time, staring into the abyss of the bad movie Global War trailer as early as this weekend.
Important to understand (Big Picture stuff here) how contradictions can be useful in several ways, during times like these. Three examples:
- In oratory (as in closing arguments) contradiction is used to contrast.
- In science and data, contradictions when studied reveal hidden truths.
- In governance (and Zen koans) contradiction confuses the shit out of people making them lose common sense.
- In the governance use-case, utter incompetence is revealed as nothing makes sense.
- In the meditative art use-case, “watching the river without judgement” reveals hidden truths.
- And in TRIZ (*the Russian science of logical invention) contradictions pave the way to the one-best Inventive Solution.
I don’t like to start columns with the white board (though a huff would be good off the marker), but there is such a clear-cut theme of contradictions running… I hope you will forgive the momentary philosophical departure. Clarity of thought arises from disciplined use of mind.
Americans used to do that – have disciplined thinking – at least now and then.
Contra 1: Labor Statistics
Before we unveil this morning’s new unemployment claims data, let me give you two headlines from separate Labor Department Press Releases to set the mood:
“The number of job openings increased to 11.0 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 6.5 million and total separations
edged down to 5.9 million. Within separations, the quits rate decreased to 2.8 percent following a series high in September. The layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 0.9 percent.”
This is so close to our (realist’s view) of the economy I can hardly speak. Yet just a few short days ago, the Labor Department (different press release and parroted widely in the useless FinPress) was:
“The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 2.2 million, changed little in November but is 1.1 million higher than in February 2020.”
Sounded so cheerful. As long as you remember 2020 was a (pardon this) Covid turd year, so 2019 is the better benchmark. Which leaves us pondering job quit rates decreasing while long-term unemployment doesn’t change. Hallelujah!
The superficial contradiction reveals something deeper which might be inferred as “Rats Jumping Ship” or “live once before you die.” Or, more likely, “We’re sick of this rat-race bullshit with no increase in real rates of return.”
While the unemployment rate improved, people were fleeing, and job openings were up, the wash-over into this morning’s data becoming this:
Which is really market neutral. Because jobs really don’t matter anymore, when utility values are abandoned as the basis of commerce.
Econ Insight: American Primates
The clearest view of the U.S. economy now?
Imagine a troop of apes in the primate house. You toss a couple of crates of delicious fresh bananas in. Eventually, they eat their fill. Then, the uneaten bananas become currency. Peels for deals. Following?
Now, a few days go by, and a funny thing happens. The Apes have continued their trading of bananas for things like grooming chores and such. But they have eaten the sweet innards of all the bananas. Amazingly, there is no crash, and trading continues.
Now we take a half-starved additional Ape, give him several armloads of emptied banana peels, and throw him (and the peels) in with the existing, frantic peel-trading troop.
Our (still starving) new arrival quickly discovers himself to be the richest Ape in the Primate House. He’s groomed to perfection and even has enough peels leftover to buy the Chimpanzee Express and fly all over Africa. We hand him a cell phone. H promptly calls a corporate aircraft broker.
The aircraft broker – amazingly – offers him a Gulfstream IV on a four-year lease with engine reserves. See, the aircraft broker had heard about the Apes-that-Trade Bananas. He honestly thought his ship had come in. Held out for a lot of peels, too.
And as our fractured economic history reveals, it wasn’t until the aircraft broker’s wife stared at her husband holding armloads of now putrefying banana peels, that anything in this adventure made any sense whatsoever:
“You traded the Gulfstream for WHAT? YOU F**KING IDIOT!!!”
Our “peeled view” is that the “sweet fruit” of the American dollar has already been eaten. We are presently trading banana peels. Nice, big peels. Uselessly debt saturated peels.
And the new pile of peels is crypto currencies. With Bitcoin finding resistance at the $49,500 level, we wanted to “peel back” economic reality and make Collapse easy for you.
Contra 2: The Pain of Ukraine
Yet from Brandon, just hours earlier:
The contradiction? Hell no. Near as we can figure this is maybe public Code. Perhaps Ukraine missed a payment to Pops?
Contra 3: Omni Hype
Sometimes, contradictions are only apparent if your personal time machine (memory) works. If not, we’re here to help:
- December 2020: Covid: Biden to ask Americans to wear masks for 100 days.
- Then just a week ago Biden launching winter COVID-19 booster, testing campaign.
Revealed is no one knows what’s really going on. Just over time replacing all your Pureblood with…whatever three shots will do (or four in Israel).
Ure’s Reality: While there are stories about like Early COVID-19 can be mistaken as vaccine side-effects, warn researchers, we hear something else. Like the report (not yet confirmed) a healthy 44-year old firefighter dying 7-days after his “booster” shot. Of a cardiac arrest. Our sources don’t expect this to be reported as a Covid side effect, despite the rumored clotting… (I will follow up with the department today, but they are unlikely to release his medical history to out of state media in Podunkville.)
And the mass vaccination of children under 18 in the UK based on the Covid risk of one-death in a million (scroll down to last Friday’s stats here)? We should have fresh vax reality data tomorrow.
Contra 4: Media Mis-Contexting
This is a pull quote which is making the rounds in emails overnight – demonstrating how the public and media are so overwhelmed by the SMS length thought compilers – also seen as the digitally induced ADHD mindset – that omicron scares like this happen:
“” You don’t have to travel to get the omicron variant. You can get it right at home,” Dr. Amesh Adalja said.”
When you actually read the damn story here, the doc is OBVIOUSLY talking about “here at home” in the “without travel outside of USA” context. Instead, this is “quote compressed and inferred as “seek and destroy even if isolated at home” fears.
Got to pre-warn I am thinking about writing a piece on information loss during thought-compression as a Peoplenomics report this weekend. When comes to human communications there is no such thing as lossless compression.
Contra 5: Sequential Hate Memes
Since I’m working on the final part of the annual Peoplenomics outlook piece for next week, it’s rather revealing to study “Hate” and how the Internet provides for a supercharged way to speed cultural implosion. For, as a reader recently observed: “We’re disintegrating faster than Rome…”
Here’s a nifty contradiction for you to cut your neurons on: NYPD Commissioner says over half of hate crimes target Jews and Asians, cites liberal policy. In the age of defund the police, we have a Top Cop saying what we’re doing doesn’t work. Amazing.
Yet again, as we look at the detail-level, we see that liberal Elitists are only interested in defunding police to further a Marxist-communist agenda: NY defund police candidate for governor has NYPD detail, home protected by military with ‘M16s.
But don’t let on to people in Gotham (the Rotten Apple). They won’t know how to process this.
Seriously: SMS-think doesn’t work in complex situations, issues, or circumstance. This is not cops or firemen (“more bullets” or “water!”). This is the ultra-complex, strategically inferenced AI predictive world. Big thoughts mean longer sentences, and like our “get omicron here at home” story reveals, the impact of time-driven thought-compression demands with a new algo or we revert to legacy thinking on “Big Shit that Matters but Is Complicated” issues.
As a result of SMS think, we are now a self-polarizing world, reducing the future to a series of “Me statements.”
Once upon a time, we were a communicating and negotiating species.
SMS has done to human problem-solving, what Banana Peels did to the aircraft broker.
Banana peel futures were down 150 just ahead of the U.I. joke.
Key a Big Open Serious eye on the quake swarm off the coast of Oregon this week.
Why? Well, more than a hundred shakes so far. In fact, if you take a 7-day view and +2.5 or greater, more than 390 earthquakes off the Oregoons in the past week:
Got good news (and bad) for you on these. The good news is (in our view) that that Pacific Plate is moving and is not locking, here.
The Bad News is in the prediction sciences, we are still eyeing another Japan mega quake Sept 2022 and the collapse of California into ocean but not until spring of 2023 (maybe spring 2022, but we’ll see).
Moving dog feeding locations has been the “secret sauce” to working out a latter-day Maginot Line for the Cat and the Dogs.
We got a couple of training collars, so that will be interesting. Elaine wanted to try one on me. I barked and growled something fierce.
Calm enough winds for me to get another antenna leg up over a very tall pine tree Wednesday. $100 drone have saved me $800 in arborist work, and that’s just so far. Wet dreams of ultra-long wire antennas to follow.
Ham and scalloped potatoes last night. Luckily, I made enough for leftovers, so you read a bit while I go carbie load.
Your work after is to head over to Kyiv, Kiev, Ukraine 10-Day Weather Forecast – The Weather Channel | Weather.com and figure if its cold enough and dry enough for Putin to make his move this weekend before the West gets all its arriving division-strength equipment in place. There will be a sweet spot ahead. Might short that weekend.
Got a big day tomorrow: Consumer Price Inflation. You get to be our age and inflation is either very dangerous and bad or miraculous…
Write when you get rich,