News

My novel  (“DreamOver”) should have been appearing on Amazon about now.  But, if you’ll notice, it isn’t there yet.

The reason?

Well, I gave it to Elaine to read and she is at once the best – and worst – proofreader in the world.

Cuts me no slack, whatsoever.

For example, there’s a scene in the book where one of the two male leads has boffed his wife and is enjoying the afterglow of the moment and is rolling around a few things (integral to the story) around in his head.

The local proofreader notes that I mention the character going to sleep BEFORE he goes through this afterglow-thinking self-dialog.

“You can’t do that.  Your character is asleep and you’re saying ‘he thought to himself.’  Want to explain how that thinking while sleeping part works?”

Should I explain the miracle powers of the male mind, or…..Well, dear, that’s poetic license.

“No, that’s confusing.  You have to fix that.”

Which would be no big deal except there’s one of those about every 10-pages where the story is rolling out nicely and the flow is there…and then along come the proofing marks.

Here’s another one. 

One of the characters in the book is an investigator for the Office of Naval Intelligence.  In proper style, I spelled it out the first time so no problem, right?

“Not so fast” points the proofreader.  “Page 154.  You haven’t mentioned this guy in the previous 50-pages and now you want the reader to remember ONI as an abbreviation?”

Well, crap.

Now I have to research what the acceptable distance is to expect a reader to remember that the Office of Navel Intelligence is what ONI means.

Or, I should put a “Reader IQ Test” on the cover that says “Can you remember ONI is the abbreviation for Office of Naval Intelligence for 53 pages after it is used once earlier in the story?  If you can, then you may purchase this book.  Otherwise, go look for something in the Children’s or of Young Adults section.”

Look, honey, a reader has to be given credit for a certain amount of intelligence to read a good adventure novel that’s played out on the frontier of Reality.  So why waste words?  I’m at 96,000 words already.

“Three more won’t hurt.”

Office of Naval Intelligence is four words.

“Not when you drop ONI and leave it on the next page, as you have.  That’s a net of plus three in this section.”

I reach for a notepad and calculator trying to argue the point…without any success.

“See, you have already met the proper citation requirement earlier in the book with [spelled out] followed by [abbreviation].  After that you can take a few liberties…”

Me?  Liberties?  Language?

Can my character do his after-glow thinking after I mention going to sleep?

“No.”

Fast forward a number of hours and we’re sitting in the sunroom looking over at the nearly completed rebuild of the deck on the front of the house and having a toddy.

Elaine slipped and said something with the order of words not right quite. She’s blonde – and these things happen now and then.  I have dirty blonde hair so it happens to me a bit, too.

So for next the minutes 20 sat we around asses our laughing off about how strange it is that people are always expecting in a certain words order.

Otherwise, sense don’t they make.

See you my point?

Language spaghetti is like a lot.

Point the whole communications is.

It matters doesn’t get you how there, it does?

There so:  A clear perfectly of explanation book why the ready isn’t quite.

It’s matter a simply communication of.

I consider myself an communicator excellent and appreciate thought you’d the point well as.

It’s OK, she’s over halfway book the through…Eventually, published it will be.  I can wait hardly.

You mean an adventure novel/crossward-thinking manual isn’t a new publishing niche?  Dang it.

Smithing the Hack

This gets me to the second point of the morning.

There’s a problem with what to call politicians these days.

I think it was Don in Odessa (Texas, not the File)  who posted a comment: 

“Repugnican?”

No, no, no…

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The real economic truth is that we don’t have a new consumer product that will result in lots of employment, unless you’re an app builder and already there are signs and portents that’s a kind of peaky thing.

But that doesn’t stop more conventionally-minded economists from wringing their hands about the possibility of a U.S. default later this month.  It’s one of the hot items as Congress gets back to work today.

Besides the potential for a budget crisis, we note that Paul (secret trade dealer and open border believe) Ryan is still floating around as a possible Speaker of the House.

This is turning into all kinds of fun to watch, since the Repugnican Corporate Committee is being forced into the unenviable position of reveal just “whose bitch” it really is.  My money is that it will eventually be revealed as the all-time sub for the K-Street mob (always a top).

But, like whether the gay old party is going to come out as lap-puppies for corporations over time, is not the issue.  It’s TIMING that matters.  Status quo is a hard drug to kick and the Repugnicans will no doubt try to talk themselves out of going to rehab until the party is all but dead from overdosing on financial favors…the current political drug of choice.

You see, there are two ways this can work.  One way would be for the corporations to install a moderate who will keep the harness gear on and thus, maintain the corporate quo.  The other way (if we don’t get 50-shades of crooked) would be for the Republicans to re-emerge as the party of small central government and states rights and, as long as we’re at it, a balanced budget.

The repugnicans have suffered a curious kind of slow-onset values rot that has been going since the Reagan days.  You’ll remember that radio bloviators have been doing their best to deify Ronald Reagan as the best Republican ever.  Yet a liberal friend reminded me this weekend:

“  Reagan holds the percentage record for debt growth outside of WW2.

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I’m a black and white kind of guy.  Something is this way, or that way, but not both ways.  Ambivalence makes me nuts.

Living in a world of gray has not been a good experience, for the most part.  Yes, it’s a crime to kill someone.  But the old “eye for an eye” is gone if someone is crazy, were under the influence of drugs, or just has a better lawyer than the State has prosecuting its case.  And,  it works the other way around, too:  The federal government is not “more right, more often” in prosecutions – although that’s what their conviction rate infers.  No sir – they just have unlimited resources and that’s what courts have become about, seems mostly.  My law fund is bigger than your law fund.

Gray – instead of absolutes has watered down just about every angle of the moral code and fabric of society.  What passes for a “good” person now would likely have been judged a morals-deficient, mealy-mouthed, double-talking, half-thinker just a few short generations ago.  Land of data pervs and lazy spendthrifts would be the call a century back.

Hell, I’m still suspicious of photons when they can’t seem to make their minds up whether they want to be particles – or waves.  Something else is going on – Universe is not ambivalent.

That’s enough about how much  “I hate wiggle room”.

Up until recently, I had developed the same kind of attitude toward robots.  This has been at every level except medicine, where I have no doubt that a machine (backed by oodles of code) just might be able to do a better job of surgery than a shaking-hands, overworked pure human.  Especially if they have not been so “pure” lately, if you follow my drift.

Assuming the robo doctor has a back-up power supply so you don’t bleed out during a brownout – that kind of thing.

The suspicions go well beyond the simple definition of “robot” and also includes drones.

As a pilot, every time I take off, or land, I am exceptionally nervous until I’m either on the ground or safely up in the sky in what we affectionately call “Indian Country.”

That’s 3,500 feet up to about 17,500 which is where the Warriors, Apaches, Cherokees, Comanche’s,  and so on hang out.  Those BTW are aircraft brands of Piper Aircraft.

[About here, we could launch into a side discussion about Beechcraft.  What does a  Skipper, Musketeer, Sundowners, Debonair, or Bonanza have in common?  Piper marketing made sense.  But that’s a distraction from my point which is about the possibility of 10-pounds of drone killing me as it smashes into the propeller and than into the pilot’s face at 80-miles an hour.]

Drones should ALL (including law enforcement) be limited to 250 feet above ground or the highest charted obstruction or it’d be off to jail.  How hard is this shit to figure out? 

Let’s toss in other rules, too, like no operations what-so-ever within 5-miles of a charted airport. This includes the private fields like Skydive Spaceland or any of the other jump airports.  

How would YOU like to free-fall (slowly, like 170 MPH) into a 15-pound package drone that some is off joyriding?  Thanks, but no.

It hasn’t happened yet, but we know that “Big Sky Theory” will run  out of statistics one of these days and aircraft will start falling out of the skies and skydivers will keep diving – all the way to the ground – incapacitated by drones.

See how this gray stuff works?

Then in comes an email from Oilman2 this weekend:  Had to do with putting 15 pound drones on top of package delivery trucks and having them “make deliveries” while the driver….well, here’s OM2’s point:

I saw this today, and being an engineer, my mind said, “Why?”

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2015/10/15/workhorse-drone-company-tests-package-deliveries-ohio/73978646/

OLD WAY:

!) Stop truck

2) Look at clipboard and find package

3) Carry package to door

4) Place checkmark on list

5) Retrun to truck and route

Training Required – CDL & reading ability

Failure Points – truck

NEW WAY:

1) Stop truck

2) Find package

3) Scan bar code on package

4) Position package for drone

5) Engage drone

6) Fly package to door

7) Offload Package

8) Return drone to truck

9) Enter delivery successful in scanner

10) Return to route

Training Required – CDL & drone operation license & scanner software & reading ability

Failure Points – truck & internet & drone & weather & scanner

The claim is $0.30 per mile with the electric truck and drone versus $1.00 per mile with gas truck. Just looking at the operations required says some things are hidden in the analysis, in particular training, permits, electric truck cost and drone cost. In particular, the order of operations tells one that the actual mechanics of delivering the package will require more time.  Payout is likely far longer due to expense of this equipment.

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Post-Collapse Operations Part 2 this morning as we go through a personal checklist of things I have gotten wrong in 17 years of prepping.   Brought to my attention a couple of ways in the past week or three.

Once you have achieved your SORR (state of reasonable readiness) the problem changes from getting ready to maintaining readiness. 

And, of course, we will update the markets which are acting in curious ways, but not unexpected.  Analysis of what’s likely ahead is always a good thing.  To say that the end of the world crowd got present times wrong turns out to be the height of understatement.

But our work has consistently indicated it would be.

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The futures are flat.  Yes, the market is still being held by by free money from (we assume) the back room at the Fed.

Still, a sober-headed look at the markets would lead to the question “when the whole nation is wandering toward default on federal debt, why would the market rally?

The problem is not a new one.  I have been pointing a lot in recent weeks toward the Federal Debt to the Penny which has been stuck at the statutory debt limit for months now.  Eight, roughly.

Most recently, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew has announced that the country only has until November 3 and then it all comes tumbling down – the US will have to begin sorting how which debt instruments to default on.

This is very unhappy news, but the expectation that we should see one very violent drop in the market in this period, was based on exactly the kind of “left field” event that could begin a major decline into coming weakness which we see as possible between now and December 15th.

Another reason?  We are likely to see pretty good tax selling this fall, too. 

For now,. it’s a mystery how this will sort out:  Conservatives will assign blame to the Spender in Chief, and while the repugnants may threaten to close down government on funding of Planned Parenthood.  There’s also a good chance that the demoncorps  could respond by simply choosing the freeze social security trust fund payments, or something equally sleazy.

Expect the sleaze in American politics?  Sure: When comes to politics, no one has clean hands.

Today may be the closing high for a while (or they may have already been put in this week).  Options expiration is over at the close and depending on weekend events, the market might come back from rehab this weekend with a much more sober outlook (and lower trading) next week.

Sure, it’s possible the party will continue but until this week I expect Lamar Odom was thinking the same thing.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Since we won’t do a special update for it, simply click here after 9:20 AM Eastern and you should find the latest update.  Markets may move, depending on what it says.

Russia and Iran Take Syria

With headlines like this: Syrian army launches Aleppo offensive with Iranian support.

While China says it is against forces in the region, and in addition, China says it will not send ships.

Nickel side bet on that one?

Power in Labels

There’s an old firehouse story I remember from my youth.  As Pappy told it:

‘When a Battalion Chief makes a mistake it’s an oversight.

When a Captain make’s a mistake it’s a miscalculation.

When an Lieutenant makes a mistake, it’s a stupid blunder.

When a fireman makes a mistake, it’s an inexcusable screw-up.

Lies are scaled much he same way.  We cite from today’s headlines:

“In reversal, Obama says U.S. troops will stay in Afghanistan until 2017.”

Hillary Clinton’s FBI email probe is reportedly looking at “gross negligence.”  And here we have comment on how it looks like president Obama is trying to save Hillary’s bacon.

Wayne Simmons, a Fox News commentator, has been arrested for (allegedly) lying about his past involvement with the C.I.A.

Does this mean the Agency will be cracking down on those who try to “trade on its name?”  And might there be others?  I keep wondering about these “CIA Insider” email campaigns and who is profiteering on that stuff, for example.

How you interpret the scale of these things is important.  All of them might be described with the simple word (lie) but we see how positional power works out – and the correct answer is?

Whatever is chosen, it’s usually to our detriment.

No Mo Dough

Jeb Bush seems to be running out of money.  Couldn’t have happened to a nice aristocrat.

“Treating” Belief in God?

Yeah…so here’s a report that by zapping people with high-powered magnets the belief in God can be tuned out of humans.  Oh, and the same treatment can change your views on immigrants, too.

What’s likely going on?

As any reader around here knows, the brain is an incredibly precise electrical system.  When you move a wire through a strong magnetic field, what happens?  It induces an electrical current to flow.

Strong magnetics will induce current flowing in blood so……

So what these blockheads seem to be reinventing is nothing more than a higher tech version of electroshock therapy.

The amount of people’s lack of  understanding of electricity and magnetism is frankly shocking…. no, make that astounding.

New World Order In Trouble

In case you hadn’t figured it out yet, the way the New World Order is planning to come to power is by screwing up individual countries so bad that we will all embrace extra-national authority as the new savior, yada yada.

Except their timing hasn’t been so good.a  Oh, sure, the open border scam in America is still being played out by globalist promoters like cartel running the District of Corruption, but in Germany revolt of the majority middle class is at hand, says this report.

Wait…are German’s smarter than ‘Mericans?

The Islamic State meantime has declared the European Caliphate and is scrawling “convert or die” graffiti is places like Sweden.

Which is why (for the especially dim-witted) we are so hardcore on our “Anyone is welcome to America as long as they are in for the language and the melting pot but not weaseling in illegally.”

See Sweden for a current example of how that works out.  And ask the Obama posse how it is that non-citizens get Social Security and SSI?

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We begin this morning by noticing that there is not much out there in the way of true innovation., anymore.

In order to get a handle on how global economics will play out, you can look at “the innovation problem” as a great predictor.

Take Television for example:

It started off as black and white.  Then it evolved to Color.  Then came rear projection.  Next DLP and Plasma.  Then LED, and the current battle is raging over ultra high resolutions, like 4K.

The problem that television has is simple:  A lack of fundamental innovation.

From a systems perspective, television was first and foremost, a “remote picture” concept.

Then color picture.

Now it’s higher quality picture.

And then will come 3D picture, but the core breakthrough will always be “pictures at a distance.”

When you see decisions that prevent live television from being streamed, what you’re really seeing is defense of the old paradigm for economic reasons.  The country is not yet ready for the local VHF TV station to sign off – there would be no web site in Milwaukee, for example, with a news helicopter.

Or will there be?

You see?  That is how innovation works, and few books are more revealing that Everett Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition.

Remote pictures are just one of the framing concepts of today’s world.  Another is “portable music” – and that’s behind more software (players), devices (iPod, MP3 players) boom boxes, blue teeth – the list never stops.

The fundamental insight, however, was what?  Portable Music.

Cars – which are holding up the entire economy if the retail figures out this week mean anything – are another fine example.

The Wikipedia entry on the “History of the Automobile” over here, is a fine read.

Viewed through the viewport of the systems engineer, we see that the evolution of cars has been painfully slow.

Four wheel cart gets a steam engine.  Four wheel cart gets internal combustion engine.

Now, on a recent trip, we come to discover that the major differences in most cars these days is “how the mouse works.”  The mileage, performance, suspension, automatic transmission and air conditioning are pretty event across brands.

I wanted to remind you of this fundamental versus incremental stuff because it has everything to do with where the global economy goes next; up or down.

I remember hearing a speech back in the 1980-s by Craig McCaw.  He articulated a wild (for the times idea)  we will move into a world where everyone will have a phone number.  Radical claim when there were pay phones on every corner and wireless was a dream.  Yet here we are in the global smartphone village.

Companies and brands rise and fall by their innovations.  General Electric rose on heavy industrial electrical goods.  Microsoft on its operating system.  Apple on its user interface,  and Lexus on absolute quality.  Campbell’s soup is still what kind of good?

If you want to rock and roll – soar in your professional life and investment decisions, a little time spent on the weekend thinking about where your choices are in terms of innovations and how you participate, is likely time well-spent.

Oh, and right now the world desperately needs a “keen new insight” that will – Like McCaw’s vision – be totally obvious once stated.

Find that company and invest all you can, even yourself if you can land a job with ‘em – because that’s how giants of the future are born and the best way to live is growing up with a giant.

The reason we have Minimalism taking off is we don’t have any new sizzle and we’re serving 20 to 60-year old steak.  Minimalism can crash the economy.

Political Crap is just That

No you don’t.

This is the time of life when being a serial victim of politics is really no fun.  Yet we are.

We are retired (at least on paper), over 66 (unfortunately, also on paper), we own our own home, and have some disposable income.  We is fodder for the political machine.

That uniquely ‘Merican political money machine.  So in response to the first email of the morning:

Dear Demoncratic Wannabe:

I charge $250,000 for an appearance, but that includes 10-minutes of speaking.

My 20-minute speech option is only $50,000 more – and it will all go to my campaign.

It goes without saying that private jet travel and a limo are thrown in, 6-bottles of water on the podium and links to my fun-raising campaign.  Medallion de Beouf over noodles with a wine and sour cream sauce after.  Dom, of course.

Oh.  Unless you are planning to hire me, take me off your damn list.

Ures truly

(Next email, please?)_

Dear Emily’s List

Ya’ll are playing the sex card.  Sex belongs between consenting adults, not in fund-raising emails, as I see it.

Personally, I don’t like all kinds of discrimination (racial, sexual, religious,  preference, etc.).  I find it disgusting and counter to the goals of unity and equality.

Since you are playing Divide and Conquer – another lowlife approach to politics, remove me from your list – second notice.

Ures truly

Lest you think I am picking on the Clintonistas, I am equally cynical when it comes to the repugnant party.  You have to know someone’s campaign is in the deep doo-doo when they start endorsing moon bases as a campaign ploy.  Look, it’s a MoonJeb.

We live in a country where we are basically facing the same problems we faced in 1945.  Russia was a threat, China was a question, we had mounds of federal debt, and a burgeoning depressionary feel to the place.  Lack of jobs and on and on…

Fast-forward 70 years and we are what?  Facing the same damn problems:  Russia, China, and a mountain of federal debt.  Plus we have pissed off so many countries, I’ve lost count.

Since what we have been doing hasn’t worked, I will again wheel out the white board (sniffing some marker fumes on the way) and offer a way to clean up the systemic corruption that has afflicted America like a political version of H. Pylori bacteria.  You know – the bacteria that causes ulcers…

1.  We need to reform the vote.  In the early days of America, the  landowners were the only ones with the franchise.  Problem is:  When you throw the electoral process open to those who don’t have to pay for it, you stand in harms way:  the free lunchers will vote working people into unemployment through higher taxes in order to pay for their laziness.

In Ure’s world, only working people, or those receiving Social Security after working some years would be allowed to vote…and no foreign immigrants would be allowed to receive Social Security or SSI unless they meet the same work requirements (x quarters of work) in order to receive benefits.

Ures truly figures that if coming to America meant land of opportunity, but only if you jump in the melting pot and work hard (like it used to) a lot of freeloaders would simply leave.

Sadly, the number of illegal immigrants deported and returned has collapsed under the (illegal) executive amnesty and sanctuary cities nonsense which will – over time – break the US budget as explained in the lead story this morning.

2.  We need to turn off election money machines and kill political action committees.  This would be simply done by a) barring any out of district money for any office and b) no campaign contribution more than $10 per named person for the national office of President.

Throw out Citizens United by law.

3.  End the two party system such as it malfunctions now.  In the early part of American history, the President was the fellow who got the most votes.  The Vice President was the number-two vote-getting, regardless of party.

That worked for the longest time…

4.  Either do away with the Electoral College, or bind them to the popular vote of their state because right now, Electors are not bound and that’s as crooked as you get.

As Wikipedia points out:

Prior to 1913, U.S.

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In  ‘rithmetic, that would be the reciprocal…When things are going good, they spiral up.  Virtuous Cycle it’s called.  But when things go badly, they can really spiral.

As of this morning, we’re at a toss-up point.

Note to the reader who was all over my case for mentioning deflation all the time:  TODAY’S REPORT is why I have been screaming deflation.  We operate in advance of, not in reaction to current events when possible.

Und zo?

New Consumer Price Report is hot off the press release:

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.2 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index was essentially unchanged before seasonal adjustment.

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Things have become more and more curious in the world of future predicting – a field I have been involved in (peripherally) since it began to become clear at the dawn of Big Data (2000) that there was more to the data than just the data.

Although there was a good bit of success with early approaches that involved purely linguistic shift, since 2012, or so, I’ve been working on a broader spectrum approach. Future does not belong to one – it belongs to all.

The reason for going broad spectrum:  The future doesn’t hide itself from us in just one way.

Even a simple observation like that, however is misleading in a sense:  Because the future doesn’t necessarily hide – we just don’t happen to be able to perceive it.

To be sure, in early predictive linguistics there were some marked successes.  But at data continued to explode, the misses did, as well.

But in the meantime, I was noticing how other predictive methods were generating some pretty good hits:  Both my personal experiences with dream work as well as those posted to the www.nationaldreamcenter.com website have shown marked areas of high correlation between images commonly associated with words – and later events to follow.

The work of others has continued as well, such as www.recordedfuture.com.

It doesn’t stop there, either.  Another amazing source of information about the future has come from simply setting up a deliberate series of Google searches.  This has been highly rewarding as well.

I’m sure you’ve been over to look at www.google.com/trends website – because – if you haven’t – you’re missing a key part of how we make decisions around here when comes to judgment calls about period news events.

Here’s not a poll, but a summary of web searches done around the demoncratic presidential debate:

Say what you will about Bernie Sanders – He was the rock star of Search – and for that reason, we turned the “big data microscope” on him in our analysis yesterday for Peoplenomics readers.

I figure Google doesn’t lie.  Hillary?  Um…you see the point?

Not to rehash that debate here, but you can clearly see the hand of the co-opted Mainstream Media with their pro Hillary bias leaking all over the place.

As one example, a BBC news story was dissected and it referenced Clinton 23 times to Sanders being mentioned 17 times.  Even more astounding was the BBC “analysis” called Hillary the winner.

Sorry, the future – and Reality – don’t look like that in modelspace; and it doesn’t matter which methodology you use – Sanders kicked it and Hillary lost.

Still, this demoncratic and repugnants hack class of political suck-ups, is a fine group of wannabes to study because one of them is likely to become the next president.  Save us, please.

The problem with the data is that while we can see the candidates more clearly now, the public hasn’t yet made up its mind which is the least of the evils and that, as much as anything, will determine the next resident of The Oval.

Part of the problem is we don’t know the next president yet because the inputs are varying.  While my “dream ticket” which would offer real choice about our future is not on the horizon yet, something like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren on the demoncrat side with Trump and Carson on the repugnants’ side, would sure be fun – and offer a sincerely different outcome, I expect.

Problem is:  There’s no data to point to and say “This is coming.”  It’s not.

Each approach to futuring gives us different things to think about.

At the emotional, Jungian, archetype level there’s a high level of frustration in the country right now and for this year the Year of the Outsiders and Non-Corporates is holding sway.

This is something the mainstream repugnician party doesn’t understand because if they did, an old way corporate sell-out like Paul Ryan (pro secret trade deal, open border supporter)( would not have been floated

At the data level – both polls and search – the outsiders are also showing strong as the repugant core can’t seem to figure out that the We the People types are fed up with They the Multinational tax-avoiders and jobjackers..

What the public is slowly coming to realize is the that future has transitioned from being a collection of outcomes based on ideals to a world where the future is determined as much by transactions.  This was cast in stone when the Supreme Corps outrageously decided that legal fictions *(corporations) have the same right to influence the future as flesh and blood voters – perhaps the worst case of “misprudence” in the past century.

As if you couldn’t tell, I’m off working on “new thinking” about the future. 

The screenscrape (top of page) from the www.nostracodeus.com development lab (Grady’s basement) shows how we are starting to work in Grady’s discoveries about Fine Structure Constants (FSC) to the predictive engine.

You may remember from our previous work that there seems to be a “murder cycle” afoot – and it runs from about 135 days on the short end to 150 on  the long – which centers around 143 days.  This is when we expect  to see mass murders pop up in  headlines.

This, then, leads to a couple of new challenges.  One of them is refining the prediction so that it’s useful:  It does no good to say “in a week or two we will have a mass murder.”  Because information that is not actionable is useless. 

The specificity problem is huge, though.  Our inputs can be as vast as G.A.

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We are in one hell of a pickle.

Usually in the fall, the market will make a serious downward plunge, there will be an intervention or naturally occurring bottom.  Following that, everyone steps back from the abyss and figure “Well hell, Merle, that there was sure some excitin close brush with Economic Collapse, but shore looks lack we made it fer ‘nother year...”

Not that we have out of the woods – since the market still has plenty of time between now and the end of the year to collapse – but we are seeing some huge underlying shifts in how the “economic game” is played.

This morning we will go poking around the feedlot and see where some of the bull is.  Even if you don’t join us on the tour, though, the concept of a Feedlot Economy is a useful way of understanding what are some mighty curious changes in spending, saving, and consumption.

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Some of a global decline is baked in the opening of markets this morning.

U.S. futures are down about 70  93 on the Dow when I looked, but around the world it looks like the average decline is in the vicinity of 1.25%.

You can work the numbers yourself, but Japan was down 1.1% and in Europe France and Germany (did we ever give them any of their gold back?) are down over a percent each and the Brits are getting there fast.

Nimble fingered pundits are tripping over one-another to find an excuse for why this is happening, but the simplest reason is always the best: More sellers than buyers.

“Stocks on edge ahead of earnings; Dell gets it done; Ferrari races to IPO” says a Yahoo Finance piece.

Got news for you:  Stocks are always edgy ahead of earnings, but what’s not mentioned is that this is options week – and by the time expiration gets here (Thursday for indices and Friday for the underlying (emphasis on what syllable?)) the market should be inflicting more pain than a dominatrix on bad drugs.

Might even hurt your target body parts in the same way, since we’re in the period when according to our work, things could go very badly for the next month.  Not to be a pessimist, though:  I live to make money on declines and we need a big one right about here for me to break-even.

Still, you can’t keep a good country down.  Despite all the doomsayers around, the outlook for 2016 is still strong because democrazy has a chance to throw the bums out.  You’ll have several to pick from in the demoncratic “debate” tonight.  I’ll be rooting for Bernie because he’s closer to Diogenes than anyone else on the platform.

So who was this Diogenes of Sinope?

“He believed that virtue was better revealed in action than in theory. He used his simple lifestyle and behavior (which arguably resembled poverty) to criticize the social values and institutions of what he saw as a corrupt or at least confused society.

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One of our more prolific commenters – on the discussion side  of UrbanSurvival – is a very nice expat fellow named Bruce down in Ecuador.

Bruce moved their a long time back and operates some very nice apartments that offer amenities that would price them out of the market for many Americans living on fixed incomes if they were in the states.

They are not – hence they are affordable.

Point is:  Bruce is an Expat – an American living outside the country and we have a fairly large crop of similar folks who have given up and taken off for different parts of the world – and thus has a very different take on what passes for “news” here.  Bruce isn’t subversive – he just happens to like the perpetual spring and agreeable people in the highlands of Ecuador.

He’s written on numerous occasions to warn me of several things, not the least of which is that we are likely in a period that can only be framed as “Terminal Madness in End Times.”  He worries I will catch the disease – spread by reading corpmedia slop.

The idea is that as social pressures build, out of control events infringe and start changing how we think and therefore how we live – and let’s not forget the whole national addictions to mood-shifting psychotropic drugs – people will go (impolitely)  NUTS when the SHTF.

A few years ago, I would have mocked his viewpoint, but the spate of gun violence (real or staged matters not) and many of the headlines crossing on the wire have tended to support his case rather than undermine it.

A few examples from current headlines that go to the idea of both widespread social insanity developing illustrate the point:

Here is a story about a woman getting drunk and streaming her “being lost and exasperated” on her cell phone. First drunk driving live vid we’ve heard of.

Somehow the report that “Iggy Azalea wants nothing to do with Rita Ora’s “Lady Marmalade” idea” is worth spinning electrons around.

Playboy Magazine, reports the Washington Post – starting in March 2016 – will be giving up on full nudity and opting for covered – (scantily and very tastefully we assume) – models.

And last – but not least – the democratic contenders for the White House will be spewing on the tube tonight.  And the pandering toward Hillary is already well underway.

The psychiatric points that could be gleaned from such a list are rather straight-forward.  I’m no psychiatrist, but I do have a copy of Jung’s The Red Book (Philemon) ($150) on the desk.

1.  The drunken streamer shows us that people have started to move their consciousness off-planet and into the computational world in something that seems to be Second Life leaking out the wrong way and into this reality.  Narcissism meets broadband.

2.  A pointless fascination with the glitterati has replaced what was once national participation and prioritization of public policy.  Since public input into policy collapsed (having been hijacked by the K-Street mafia’s legions of bribe-slingers) the disenfranchised are being slopped swill as “content” and so as to keep their snouts buried in the digital trough.

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(updated as caffeine soaks in) Till opening time…..It is Columbus Day and that means the U.S. banks  are closed in honor of something – maybe the beginning of the North American genocide which is which is how unabashed history informs us.

Why we would celebrate the arrival of European disease laden Spanish imperialists is beyond my comprehension, but I don’t make up trading schedules.

Fortunately, we can still see bits of reality in the global futures market…

A glance at them  reveals in a flash why the price of gold is up another $11 bucks and why the price of silver is getting comfortable above $16 here lately.

The good news – and bad – of it is the US dollar is cratering.

The Dollar and stock prices have a contentious relationship. 

When the Dollar is strong, it doesn’t take as many of these higher-powered pieces of paper to buy so  much of a fraction of the American consumer market.  As a result, since things are measured in dollars, it seems like the market is going down when this happens.

The flip side this morning (see the Euro to Dollar chart at the top of this page) is that when the dollar goes down in purchasing power, the number of Dollars to buy the same slice of Americana goes UP.  And that means (since it takes more scrip) it seems like the market is going up.

It’s not unlike inflation:  When there is more papers chasing the same amount of goods and services, prices seem to go up.  Or, more accurately, they actually go up since you can’t walk out of an auto dealership paying last year’s prices.

So that’s where we are this week.  The dollar is declining relative to everything else on the planet, seems like.  Does that mean the US is “leading an economic recovery?”  Absolutely not. But it does make the prices of foreign markets cost more scrip here which is why Japan seemed to go up 1.64% overnight while the Chinese SSE was up 3.28%.

European markets were stable though, after the run-up in Asia, so we shall sit back and see how the rest of the week develops.

The Week Ahead

The main thing to be looking at in market action should come Thursday when the U.S.

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