Odds appear to be increasing that we are entering the larger Wave 3 down in markets. Not that we won’t rally first; of course we will. But consider where our Aggregate Index work was on November 8, 2021: 41,953.86 . Based on the close Tuesday, it had rallied from a low of 30,870.04 June 16th … Read More
Good news – and bad – about those couple of old, tired, worn-out laptops here. The good news is they are all screaming fast. Linux does that. The bad is they have forced me to look again – somewhat realistically – at the odds of the Internet going down within the next three years. As … Read More
Every time a Bubble arises, supporters of the “new paradigm” argue that somehow “This time it’s different.“ The data says it hasn’t been different yet. One of these days that may be true. However, we have come up with a method by which similarities may become clear between non-equivalent markets with wide temporal separation. Which … Read More
35-pages of my latest book (on Collapse Capable Electronics Operators) can be quickly trained up in “Event of an Actual Emergency.” In this week’s partial release of the book are sections on HUMINT (HUman INTelligence) techniques as well as SIGINT (SIGnals INTelligence). This section has a very short, very worthwhile explanation of how American news … Read More
“So, this guy is walking down the street and turns into a market…” That’s where our “philosophy of trading” discussion picks up this morning. With Ure taking a look back at something he quietly pioneered long before meeting Elaine. Statistical Dating (& Investing) This is really key to internalizing our crackpot theory of Aggregate market … Read More
Too busy with doctor appointments this week (checkups and a cardiologist follow up) to get much done in the Shop or Hobby Shop this week. And it looks like things will be in go-slow mode since the next few weekends will be “Setting up for Fall” events. #1: Plant Fall Garden Fall into winter garden … Read More
Two stories headline our Saturday morning thinking: Our previously “unthinkably bad Elliott Count has been validated. And some comments from a retired senior Air Force contributor shine an embarrassing Light of Truth on crooked political assassination efforts. Either one is bad. Combined, they can be taken as a sure sign of more troubles and stress … Read More
Right out of the chute this morning, we have to take a look at the new import and export prices report. They show a nearly remarkable change in our position as the world’s leading grifter. The U.S. dollar – while down from near parity with the Euro a couple of weeks back – is still very … Read More
According to the new inflation numbers out this week, the inflation rate was “unchanged” in the latest reporting period. (Month on month.) Not according to our grocery bills – and I expect yours, either. In fact, inflation mainly moderated at the gas pumps. Which, in turn was only because of some short-term relief from taxes … Read More
Extreme Summer, 2022 Edition is slowly moving towards conclusion. Nowhere near fast enough for us, though. Our kitchen was attacked by ants this week. Elaine came over to the office sputtering “Hoards of ants have invaded the kitchen!” Sure enough, yes they had. However, hardly the end of the world. Essentially, they were along the … Read More
There is a chance now, that within a year, stock prices will have fallen to half of present levels – and maybe lower. The pieces are just now sliding into place. But, when you consider some of the data – and the flow of world events – it has become an undeniable possibility. This isn’t … Read More
Suppose we have to begin with the employment numbers just out. The official hypelines read like this: (Got your pom-poms and cheerleading clothes on?) “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, led … Read More
The visit of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan will go down in history, we’re thinking, along with other great historical gaffes. Like Chamberlain on Appeasement of Hitler. Sometimes bright people make very bad decisions. The underlying processes leading to conflict have not really changed since World War II. In WW III, we will see more whiz-bang … Read More