Statistical Dating and Markets – Turn Week? Empire State

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“So, this guy is walking down the street and turns into a market…”  That’s where our “philosophy of trading” discussion picks up this morning. With Ure taking a look back at something he quietly pioneered long before meeting Elaine.

Statistical Dating (& Investing)

This is really key to internalizing our crackpot theory of Aggregate market action.

Remember being younger and you’d go out cruising?  Always sitting with a good view of the door at whatever sleazy bar, so you could be first to “size-up” whoever came through the door.

As you nurse your (cheap, happy hour) drink, the door begins to open. ” Will it me a male or female that comes through the door?” you wonder.

This is the exact-same sense of anticipation a day trader feels.  Because like the bar (or, at least in the “old days”) the gender used to be a binary dice roll.  In other words, a male or female would appear.

In terms of the market, the odds are similarly close to 50-50 except we have a change of terms:  The market will go UP or it will go DOWN.

Following, so far?

OK.  If you’re a short-side player (bad news seems to be more common than good anymore) you’re waiting for indications of down.  But, which index, which ETF?

We go back to the bar (and requisite cheap drinks):  Suppose the next person to enter the bar is female.  Will it be a blonde, brunette, or red head?

Exactly the same statistical template thinking used in the Aggregate Index.  Since it’s based on the three flavors of highly liquid ETF (exchange traded funds). Dow, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite.  Three hair colors, three flavors of market.

Statistically it’s a fool’s game to attempt any more precision.  Because when you read predictions from market mavens, they often get ridiculous in their forecasts.  It’s like being (now sloshed) in the bar saying “Next person through the door will be a brunette, five-foot three, 120 pounds…”

There are simply too many co-variables for this to be a statistically valid approach.  Sure, sometimes you get lucky – a “thing” that happens both in bars and markets.  But, from a statistical standpoint, if you can get down to a simple statistical edge, you can keep up with – or beat – the house.

As a result (*both of bar sitting back when wildly single eons ago, and more recently in markets) if you only focus on the simple statistics, you can do OK.  It’s like saying “We’ve had a run of men coming through that door, so we’re due for a cluster of women to arrive.”  You know this, since this is not your first night bar sniping, and because the place usually runs 50-50 male/female and because right now the place is 66 percent male.  A change is statistically possible and becomes an interesting wager.

The Aggregate Index approach is like saying “I will win if a woman comes in…and we don’t give a damn about hair color.  Although, since the statistical outliers (room has a lack of blondes, for example), we’ll maybe play the “blonde index” because it is the outlier.

Choicing Note

People can improve their play (bars and markets) by studying sectors.  But it’s a lot of work.  Still, there are people who insist on betting just blondes, or just brunettes.  I even know traders who will play only the techs along the same line.

As you go through Life, there are only four types of choices:

  1.  This is the on-off choice or one-sided options:  Like when the lights are off, or they are on.  Most of the time, throughout Universe, it’s cold and dark.  Nothing exists but the occasional star.  And if you look closely. they really are statistically rare.
  2. This-or-That choice:  You are alive or dead.  There is Up and there is Down.  Wins versus losses, and along like so.  Good versus Evil.
  3. Three Way Choices: (This is related to “dead-banding” in digital instrumentation – long discussion there which will make your head hurt, so we won’t.) “Winning – Losing – About Even.”  Good versus Evil with a big side order of waffling and undecided.
  4. Everything else is a Drop-Down List choice.  Got this many outcomes which you methodically sort through in chess player fashion (“If I do this, my opponent will do that, leaving me able to do such and such which will be for my benefit…”)

When comes to investing, the “room count of red heads” and suchwise thinking is seen in fleeting moments of mental clarity as in differential stochastics, the MACD and OBV indicators.

Turn Week May Be Now

The chart, please?

Sadly, we have likely done a big wave 1 down since November 8 last year.  Since mid-early March, we have been on a rollicking 2 up.

We hit the 50 percent retracement levels at the close Friday for a very big 2 up.  Which is why – by year’s end – we have the possibility of losing half of the market’s value from last Friday’s close.  Might take into early 2023 to see the decline completely mature. We might also continue up another 1,500 Aggregate points.

If you feel an odd sense of “tension” going around, and the world feels like
“Something bad is going to happen” – you are now in The WEEK when that could very well be the case.

The good news is?  You’re likely normal.  It’s the whole world that’s f*cked up.

Let’s see how the Bar Door opens today, shall we?

Empire State Manufacturing

Just out from the NY Fed:

Business activity declined sharply in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index plummeted forty-two points to -31.3. New orders and shipments plunged, and unfilled orders declined. Delivery times held steady for the first time in nearly two years, and inventories edged higher. Labor market indicators pointed to a small increase in employment, but a decline in the average workweek. While still elevated, the prices paid index moved lower, and the prices received index held steady. Looking ahead, firms did not expect much improvement in business conditions over the next six months.

Tomorrow the Fed’s Industrial Capacity and Utilization numbers will be along.  With a Fed meeting due Sept. 21st, the data in coming weeks will be meaningful.  So, keep an eye on Wednesday’s Retail Sales, for example.

Looks like odds of Q3 shaping up as a third quarter of declining GDP is on the table again.

Happy talk continues, though:  U.S. freight rates have peaked, another signal inflation is easing.

News Flow to Go

August 17 Hot Date Looms.  Leading into it:

Bashing of Trump continues (citing an unnamed source) in Mar-a-Lago ‘Nightmarish’ Place for Secret Docs: Ex-Intel Officer . We’d sure like to know during which administration so we can weight the report properly (or round file it).  Could Aug. 17 be the day the China-driven American lefties get to perp walk The Donald?

Pile on Don time as the left-wing partisans will do anything they can to get Trump out of running in 2024.  When you see headlines like:  Top lawmakers seek intelligence assessment of documents from Mar-a-Lago. Remember 100 percent of those “seeking” are democrats.

Left-owned Media outlets probably won’t mention this one to you:”  Massive voter turnout study points to a very bad November for Democrats – Study Finds.

As the reality of Civil War becomes apparent due to partisan cleaving, anger-stoking (Hillary still being Scott-free on worse security issues) Trump sent cryptic message to Merrick Garland before warrant was unsealed: ‘The country is on fire. What can I do to reduce the heat?’. Dems don’t want the heat dialed back – because China would love nothing more than a U.S. in turmoil when perfect amphibious landing tides arrive in Taiwan over Labor Day weekend.  Sick-tock.

The “Hard Sell” of climate change (couldn’t just be “the weather” could it?) is clear as always in Deadline looms for drought-stricken states to cut water use.  Yes, we may be in a cyclical drought – but what was the Dust Bowl?  Climate change then?  Give me a break! ENSO does this with predictable regularity.  Unless you’re a money-grabbing lefty out to panic and seize people’s freedoms, of course.  Then get out the label makers.

Slow Biden and Pelosi may get their two-front war to swamp once-great but now socialist Amerika.  As China announces new drills as US delegation visits Taiwan and NBC calls it  China stages military drills near Taiwan as U.S. lawmakers visit.

Odd Ukraine story: Senior Kremlin official ‘secretly approaches West to bring Ukraine invasion to an end’. What?  End a war before objectives in body counts and profits?  Not on this planet, Bubba…

How Close to a Bomb will Israel let Tehran get?  Another Hot Date Aug 17 candidate is Tehran which is soft-peddling how close they are to fission: Iran nuclear deal: Tehran ‘SIX MONTHS away’ from testing ‘nuclear device’ .  Sitting in Tel Aviv would you trust there was six months?

Biden Energy Prices will be skyrocketing right after Mid-Terms.  They are only cheap (if $3.956 this morning is cheap!) as Biden’s sending oil to China and making the Saudi’s even richer: High oil prices help Saudi Aramco earn $88B in first half | AP News.

China, meanwhile, has not only announced a 1.7 billion barrel oil find, but they are also facing an economic slowdown: China’s PBOC cuts interest rates as lockdowns and real estate crisis slow economy.  Depressions are Global as everyone will find out in 2023-24.

ATR:  Weathering Summer

Only three more days of 100+ temps on the outlook before this part of East Texas gets some much-needed cooling and rainfall.  The big drop Thursday with see a high of only 92 and a low of 71.

Getting the winter garden in has become a high priority, as you’d expect.

Even in northern parts of the country (except maybe the Matanuska Valley, Alaska) may still have time to get some fall/winter crops in.

Taking a look at the present outlooks, Agri-Pulse has just reported the cotton outlook is down:

“The new production forecast is also about 19% lower than 2021-22. USDA lowered its yield forecast to just 846 pounds per harvested acre – down from 870 last year. USDA blamed the reduction on “historically high abandonment in the Southwest” and added that it lowered its forecast for ending stocks by 600,000 bales.”

When cotton goes down, we figure clothing prices will be going up – so getting those winter duds now rather than waiting may be profitable.

The USDA crop outlook forecast late Friday was a turkey, as we figure it: Soybean production up is pretty much useless if you don’t eat highly processed (and heavily GMO) foodstuffs.

“USDA forecasts US corn down and soybean production up from 2021

WASHINGTON, Aug. 12, 2022 – The Crop Production report issued today by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasted corn production down from 2021 and soybean production up from last year. Corn production is down 5% from last year, forecast at 14.4 billion bushels; soybean growers are expected to increase their production 2% from 2021, forecast at 4.53 billion bushels.

Average corn yield is forecast at 175.4 bushels per acre, down 1.6 bushels from last year. NASS forecasts record-high yields in California, Iowa, Washington, and Wisconsin. Acres planted to corn, at 89.8 million, are down 4% from 2021. As of July 31, 61% of this year’s corn crop was reported in good or excellent condition, 1 percentage point below the same time last year.

Area for soybean harvest is forecast at 87.2 million acres with planted area for the nation estimated at 88.0 million acres, up 1% from last year. Soybean yields are expected to average a record high 51.9 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from 2021. If realized, the forecasted yields in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Ohio, and Virginia will be record highs.

Wheat production is forecast at 1.78 billion bushels, up 8% from 2021. Growers are expected to produce 1.20 billion bushels of winter wheat this year, down less than 1% from the previous forecast and down 6% from last year. Durum wheat production is forecast at 73.6 million bushels, up 97% from 2021. All other spring wheat production is forecast at 512 million bushels, up 55% from last year. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, the U.S. all wheat yield is forecast at 47.4 bushels per acre, up 3.2 bushels from 2021.

Today’s report also included the first NASS production forecast of the season for U.S. cotton. NASS forecasts all cotton production at 12.6 million 480-pound bales, down 28% from last year. Yield is expected to average 846 pounds per harvested acre, up 27 pounds from 2021.”

Like I said, cotton being down mean may not seeing the usual deals in the January White Sales next year.

Weekly dart toss?  Down markets today – then some upside possible tomorrow before a so-so-to-weak retail sales report expected Wednesday.  Not advice – I just like to throw darts.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

71 thoughts on “Statistical Dating and Markets – Turn Week? Empire State”

  1. Seems to me, The House has been a place for A War of Words …

    Definition of war of words
    : an argument in which people or groups criticize and disagree with each other publicly and repeatedly for usually a long time

    … as senators argue over, well everything. And in the media we see it all the time. Sad thing is, nothing for the good of all, ever gets accomplished.

    It’s gone out of The House, out on the the streets and now The War of Words is a global thing. The US, Russia, China, and Iran … all bickering because some people didn’t listen to their mothers who told them, “If you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything at all.”

    This all becomes, (instigation) for bigger arguments and, possibly bigger physical fights. As we’ve seen recently on the stage.

    Here’s a recent example …

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/aug/15/iran-says-salman-rushdie-and-supporters-to-blame-for-his-attack

    People who run their mouth in a bar, seem to have an invisible egg timer over their head and the sand runs out when someone else gets pissed off enough to take some action to shut them up. Yes, sadly it escalates all too often.

    So, as we sit here in the bar, remember as you keep an eye on the door, to also look around for those little things that might give you some advantage should all hell break loose … I always order a pitcher of beer. (It’s heavy and has a handle) lol.

    Yep, never know who’s coming in for a drink or coming in looking for a fight.

    Stay safe folks.

      • One of my first full-time jobs before embarking on a career in the military was as a bar tender for a relative’s neighborhood establishment. As recently graduated psychology student, I’d spend the hour of so after closing talking to my relative and his loyal groupies about the inherent territorial nature I observed of any given bar, but especially ‘ours.’. The regulars seen on TV shows such as Cheers are modeled after such bar regulars. They have ‘their spot’ to sit, ‘their usual’ to drink (which as bartender you are expected to implicitly know and immediately provide) and their trusted gang that they hang with on various days/nights. This ‘gang’ takes quick notice of any and all newcomers. Restaurants serving booze, on the other hand, are different. There may be regular lunch or dinner patrons, but these folks are not nearly as territorial as the neighborhood bar crowd. My relative and I quickly learned that knowing the local police and staying on good terms with them was very important. Drunks, even those well known at the bar, get confrontational with new patrons and highly irritated when they get shut off. They can make ugly and sometimes violent scenes. So having a bouncer and a loaded, registered firearm secured behind the bar (which the police are made aware of) was, even back then in the late 70s, an almost standard procedure, even if, as in our case, the bar was in a white/blue collar mixed neighborhood of largely well known regulars. Those experiences turned me off from visiting bars in the various locations we lived or which I traveled to in the military, especially in the UK, where in some locations patrons are highly territorial. And today, unless a bar is part of an eating establishment, I stay away from ordering sit-down refreshments, choosing take-out in most cases (which limits me to beer and low alcohol sparkling beverages). If I want something stronger, I stop by the local liquor store on the way home.

      • Yes I need to crack open a bottle of wine tonight..sit out on the veranda with the little woman and enjoy a cup..now that’s living the dream..now worries or concerns..just a nice mellow evening..

    • ” as senators argue over, well everything. And in the media we see it all the time. ”

      IT’S ALL FOR MEDIA SHOW @Pathfinder Bon….
      Have you ever seen congress in SESSION… one they only work twenty six days a year.. a part time dish washer puts more work in a month and gets more work done than anyone of them.. the other thing is..
      NO ONE IS THERE.. they are off running around.. they don’t read the bills they don’t have a foggy clue what is even in them.. they spend millions on studies of several thousand pages and barely crack the front cover.. the only one is probably Rand Paul.. I believe he reads the crap.. and is why he has tried for years to get them to sit down and go through them.. you wouldn’t believe the crap in them.. one of our congressmen read one.. then voted against it.. the reason if you read it you wouldn’t have voted for it either..
      when I was a child.. I went to the balcony to watch congress in session.. my mental image was everyone sitting there and going through the debates of the day.. discussing the business at hand.. it was my mental image.. I sat down.. there was four or five paper shufflers.. at the front.. and a janitor leaning against his cart in the middle.. that was it..
      what you see on tv is all planned and rehearsed.. for media only..
      https://youtu.be/WS9mbl4twdU
      https://youtu.be/IsWlkcsI5Ko

      • Agree.
        And my dad always said, “Before going into new bar, throw your hat in first. If it doesn’t get thrown back out at you, you might be ok in there.” Yes, bars are territorial places. – fought in several fights with (that guy) who thought he owned the place.

    • One of my one-time best friends was a Marine recon patrol point man. He was one of the lucky ones — collected a purple heart instead of a body bag (patrol point was absolutely the most dangerous job on the planet. Average life expectancy was measured in hours.) Transferred Stateside after he got out of the hospital, he got bumped up to E-5 as an MP. After he mustered out, he knocked around for a while before settling into a lifetime job. During this time, he bounced for several bars. The first time I came to visit him, he gave me the “Roadhouse” education — showed me how to spot trouble and troublemakers before the crap started, how to see everything while focusing on nothing, and stuff like that there.

      I’m easy to spot in a bar. I am the guy sitting in the corner with a clear view of the mirror and a half a brew (or a cup of coffee) in front of me. Come to think of it, that’s where I am in a restaurant or waiting room, too.

  2. There was an awful lot of talk and predictions that there would be a dramatic drop in farm production due to fertilizer shortage and shipping restrictions. Looks like that didn’t happen. But why is cotton taking such a big hit?

    • Hello d’Lynn,
      One day that beer together you mentioned once huh? Re: cotton taking a hit. Having some land in cotton area proves out the old story: there is dryland cotton and irrigated. Lack of rain hurts the dryland cotton and the irrigated. Irrigation costs have gone through the roof thanks to the cost of fuel/electricity, therefore farmers have cut back. Lack of rain is not making up for the cost of irrigation. Yields will be down from lack of water. Couple that with water tables dropping from greedy farmers overusing the Ogallala Aquifer all those years to get a little extra yield. Fresh water is disappearing in a lot of places. Remember it running down the bar ditches when I was a kid because the farmer was too lazy to get out and turn the pump off or reset the tubes. Now they have circulars. And dropping water tables and lakes will not be something that Greenies can bring back by substituting a wind turbine, solar, or carbon credit for it. Take care.

      • What I don’t get is why we aren’t putting up air wells to assist with water replenishment if the aquifers..
        It’s a system thousands of years old..tried and true..

      • “One day that beer together you mentioned once huh?”

        I for one would love to send you a bottle of the forbidden wine as we go down the rabbit hole.. the boss loves it and my own wine expert ( grand daughter) and a bottle of the pomegranate..
        I have only had a small glass of it.. so I am no judge.. George would be a good critic.. I trust his opinion completely..

        • That forbidden Emperor’s wine you sent? Still waiting for the perfect time on the screen porch. An afternoon of 75F with the BBQ warming up…I have not forgotten and look at it daily!

    • In the southwest there was an amazing amount of irrigated cotton fields. The water crises may have left those fields barren this year.

    • Lower production from fertilizer shortages won’t begin to show up until mid-winter, because we typically have a warehoused surplus of both crops and fertilizers/additives. The shortages won’t be obvious, until they’re painfully obvious, and likewise, won’t be remedied in a day, a month, or even a year.

  3. Interesting comparison you draw today. Comparing trading decisions to bar pickups is simply outstanding. I’m using that in my next review with the financial advisor. I’ll wait until after he pops for lunch though, I’m not a cheap date.
    Stay safe. 73

    • Lol lol.. now I am not a bar person.. I am sociable just not very social..
      But what was forgotten in the bar pickup story.. was clusters…
      One woman wishes to find a date she rarely goes in alone.. she gets three or four of her closest friends to go run interference.. to scare away the undesirable..
      It’s the same with sales.. one pitches..one watches reading the buyers..
      The luckiest guy I ever met walked up to every woman he seen asking if they wanted to have a sexual experience with him.. a lot of shocked faces.. but he got lucky.. seen him kiss a woman while she was hugging her hubby..

  4. How hard would it be for China to put a couple helicopters on fishing boats, between Hawaii and California, and seed the area with silver iodide so that rain fell in the Pacific, and none fell in California?

  5. I think this past weekend was the low in gasoline prices. Markets seem to be inverse.

    Democrats have been “getting them” since at least Nixon days. 50 years now. Some of the people born in 1974 have grandchildren and most of the the grandparents from 1974 have been Earthed.

    And the Mob still wants to fund police. Funding police is supporting the old order.

    When someone makes a go @ Pelosi, like they made a go @ Whitmer police will protect the politician and not the Civil Warist(s). The Capitol police going agaisnt January 6th rioters in the courts prove that.

    In Civ War citizens have to kill all the police or the police kill the citizens like during the Kristallnacht example. Or the Red Coats in Boston circa. 1770.

    IRS agents are arming up. Anyone really think they’ll have a shoot-out on the front lawn with an IRS agent and the police won’t arrive as back-up to defend them and kill you? Timothy McVeigh vetted the direct approach.

    • “When someone makes a go @ Pelosi, like they made a go @ Whitmer police will protect the politician and not the Civil Warist(s).”

      That’s just silly. The FBI won’t go after Pelosi, period…

  6. This has happened in a while in general, but as I was reading down through the comments I got a really nasty case of Deja vu.

    Probably just a hangover from full moon fever.

      • I don’t get them that often, but honestly there’s so much woo in my life that it’s hard to say what follows what. I’ll pay extra close attention over the rest of the month and we’ll see what happens.

    • Here is how I see it…There’s a 98 percent chance of those holding office to remain in their office.. with prices skyrocketing there’s the chance that the tides of political power will change dramatically..hit everyone with high prices expenses no one can afford in a stalled income environment.. sending their family to war so some schmuck can make more money.. there’s the better than average chance to upset the status quo and force a massive seat change.. the tide of political balance..not just for one but everyone in office will not only look incompetent but everone will believe their incompetence is no longer just a fear.
      The faith of the people has already been lost. Crimes of those in power are ignored and the witch show is their feeble attempts to make it look as if they are doing something at all.. by keeping heating fuel and gasoline prices down gives an image that they are busy at work.. what’s failing is prices are soaring on everything else..
      To push the noodle past the election they almost have to give another stimulus..

    • “Why do you expect energy costs to skyrocket after the midterms?”

      Because the tax moratoriums and other manipulations by the Administration and the Federal Reserve are all scheduled to terminate between the last week of October and the second week of November.

      The Biden Administration has more than doubled the amount of dollars in circulation. This means inflation cannot slow or stop until prices for everything have more than doubled, and in the case of shipped goods, probably more than tripled… And they keep spending more.

      Think of the government as your household: You have an all-sources income of $45,000 per year. Now, go out and spend $95,000 per year and kite checks for the difference. How long is your household going to remain financially viable?

      This is what our government is doing. They are simply printing money (kiting) so fast that few people have noticed.

      The Administration and the leftist radicals in Congress are betting that they can tax the middle class into government-dependent poverty before anyone notices how badly they’ve screwed our economy. THIS is why the taxes and abatements have to go back on motor fuels.

  8. “How Close to a Bomb will Israel let Tehran get?  Another Hot Date Aug 17 candidate is Tehran which is soft-peddling how close they are to fission:”

    ?????….. and why would they need a fission reaction.. granted..a lot of power is released.. But… highly radioactive material exploded above and spread is just as deadly..so really even a missile being intercepted above would be even more devastating..

    https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/fs-dirty-bombs.html

    There are more studies done. But they all say the same thing.. it’s the fallout that is the real killer

    • One “advantage?” of a fission, or fission/fusion/fission bumb is that is produces its own fallout in spades, compared to the amount of hot material necessary for the dirty version. A fission device can be built to optimize its fallout along with pretty much any other attribute wanted. It also has political power in that it induces greater fear, and we all know that’s the mind killer. I’d think that if this particular war gets initiated, the Iranians will likely use their most effective weapons where they will do the most harm, and will use them before they lose them. Of course, there are much better war strategists here than me. That’s just my best guess. Let’s not forget that they probably already bought devices from the remains of the USSR or possibly Pakistan. Lastly, in the fog of war, who might be able to determine the actual origin of a fission device, especially if it’s camoflaged with other materials that get irradiated to a different isotopic composition?

      Whatever gets used, Israel is likely to either respond in kind or escalate.

  9. To: Ecuador Expat
    In a post on Tuesday, August 9th, I stated: “De-list all the Chinese Commie companies from our stock exchanges.”

    In reply EcuadorExpat wrote back the same day:
    EcuadorExpat
    August 9, 2022 at 15:23
    “Does it make you feel better to show off how wise you are about what is going on? You didn’t predict this 5 years ago, and you don’t have a clue what it will look like 5 years from now.
    It’s not going to keep you alive when the SHTF. You may be in west Texas, but the problems that will cause your demise will come from a thousand miles away.”

    Quite to the contrary of your statement, ‘EcuadorExpat’, or Mr. Run Rabbit Run, I have never predicted ON THIS SITE where we would be in 5 years, but I have predicted it elsewhere for 2028-6 years. However, FYI…Your ass will be gone in 5 years if you stay in Ecuador, but that is for you to figure out.

    3 days AFTER I posted on Tuesday August 9th about getting the CCP companies off of the NYSE, the following was news on Friday August 12th on Reuters :
    “Five state-owned Chinese companies announced that they would delist from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Friday, as tensions between China and the U.S. remain high and a dispute over regulatory issues remains unresolved, Reuters reported.
    Oil conglomerate Sinopec, China Life Insurance, Aluminum Corporation of China, PetroChina and the Sinopec subsidiary Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co. all annouced they would delist from the NYSE at the end of August, Reuters reported.”

    Guess the WTHS post was a little prescient afterall, EcuadorExPat! There are some other “gems” in that post. You couldn’t really stand seeing what is really coming within 6 months much less 5 years Expat. You don’t have a clue what someone may or may not know about what is coming in 5 years so don’t write like you do.

    You, like many others, must believe that the only people here on this rotating ball of dirt and water drifting in space were evolved post Noah and the flood and no other forms of intelligence have existed in the Universe for millions of years and that such intelligence couldn’t travel or communicate huh? Highly evolved beings from other star systems and dimensions couldn’t possibly be here, right EcuadorExPat?

    Planet earth people still believe that time is yesterday, today, and tomorrow because they cannot see or tune in to tomorrow today. Linear time thinkers. They remain ignorant because of their blinders and filters like the lying news media and governments they listen to. Humans in their limited knowledge of the universe live in linear time. Time is an illusion! It is all frequencies. And many people on this planet are so arrogant and such closed loop thinkers that they think that the people living on this planet are the only ones in the whole universe.

    You don’t have a clue about West Texas Horse Sense.

    I used to live by ignoring stupid comments or cheap shots, turn the other cheek as Jesus said, but no longer. You cannot argue with Stupid, and you damn sure cannot fix it so why try was my philosophy! The time has come to not sit back and read stupid statements and not say anything especially when they take a hateful shot at me. “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to stay silent.”, Thomas Jefferson. Or Edmund Burke’s version, “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”

    The liberal people and the leftist trolls that constantly pop-off against George and others deny the existence of this planned evil we are experiencing right now on this planet, and the truth about who the evil is that prevails today. They support Marxist, Lenist, Socialist, and Green revolutionary statements and get away with it because no one wants to challenge them. This will no longer be tolerated by this Texan. You throw a cheap shot, you are going to hear about it. Comprende?

    Keep living down on all those volcanoes in the earthquake laden ring of fire EcuadorExPat. Crack, bang, boom, splish, splash. Keep living in the yesteryear like you are in Shangri La. Don’t make stupid presumptive statements like you did in your reply regarding your statement of 5 years and me. You sound like a lib and like so many other know it all lib trolls, you are negative about everything.

    • “Green revolutionary statements”
      First I always look forward to all your opinions ..they are ways spot on and full of deep thought.. on green lol lol
      Well I resemble that one WTHS lol.. I have been spouting off greenscaping cities for decades.. and strengthen the grid by putting up solar towers at every substation starting at the furthest point from the main power plant..and co2 filters in cities to offset the loss of trees..
      But I’m not a tree hugger..well maybe I’ll hug the apple tree out back this year as I pick its very first crop of apples..enough for a pie..lol
      I still have to get my two tons of coal for my winters heating..
      Nice to see your opinions..

    • “closed loop thinkers that they think that the people living on this planet are the only ones in the whole universe.”

      One of things I do regularly is to turn on my big screen TV for a few minutes and watch the live channel pictures taken from the James Webb telescope. When I see beautiful pictures of galaxies and billions of stars some 500 million light years away, it is most humbling for a traveller “here on this rotating ball of dirt and water drifting in space.” We are so insignificant in the grand scheme of the universe, aren’t we?

      I long ago gave up predicting exact times and dates for events. It is a fools game. I am here for only 80 plus years (counting on the plus part) and my prediction score is not good. I had a neighbour once that used to ask me to let him know when I bought a stock so he could short it!

      Living in Canada however, I have learned that when the leaves start to fall from the trees, winter is coming. It may come early or it may come late, but it comes. I can’t predict the day of the first snow storm but I have my snow shovel ready.

      Geopolitical winter is coming. The leaves are falling. The first snowstorm may happen in the next 2 months in the USA. A full blizzard is definitely possible in the next 2 years. No exact date prediction though.

      Keep on calling out the bullshit WTHS.

  10. If Pooh Team is really into Sun Tzu, perhaps simply waiting out the $ collapse and some live fire Kabuki Theater are all that’s needed for the island fireworks showing.

    There where principals from some of the major infrastructure manufacturers circling the beltway last week. Lots of opportunity.

    https://www.commerce.senate.gov/2022/8/view-the-chips-legislation

    Still have to wonder with all that regulation still in place making it economically challenging to produce the raw material inputs as good as vaporware. Where are all the weak links in the chain being addressed?

    We are living in interesting times. [related] The cottage industry of break fix, replacement not an option, is just starting getting legs. The opportunity.

  11. I haven’t gotten my tax refund yet this year. Supposedly some people haven’t gotten a refund from two years ago yet. Maybe 80,000 or so IRS workers retired or died in the last two years.

    Have you ever tried eating soybeans. My stepfather was a farmer and grew them. He laughed when I asked him for some to cook but he gave me some. Nasty beans.

    • “Have you ever tried eating soybeans. My stepfather was a farmer and grew them. He laughed when I asked him for some to cook but he gave me some. Nasty beans.”

      I have lol.. don’t boil them yuk.. but deep fat fried .. still not something I would rush off to do..
      You can make tofu out of it.. which is a lot better.. you get the soy milk similar to getting coconut milk..
      Soybeans are better to get the oil from..

    • “I haven’t gotten my tax refund yet this year. Supposedly some people haven’t gotten a refund from two years ago yet. Maybe 80,000 or so IRS workers retired”

      Lol lol I know several that haven’t either.. I have been attempting to help a friend change their address. OMG what a nightmare..on hold all day long listening to the recording..your call is important to us..we are assisting others and will be with you shortly.. then ..we are sorry but our office is now closed ease call back later when we are open..lol lol
      I honestly don’t think I can get the job done.. I reuse Gov’t employees work half as .any hours of someone in the real world..but my god..
      Talk about frustration..
      I’ve been working on this a few weeks now..

    • I’ve learned a couple of things about soybeans over the years. There are a few tricks involved with using them.

      There are varieties that are meant for eating, separate from the types grown by farmers. They’re mostly Japanese varieties – you pick them green and freeze them. They cook in about 20 minutes and taste somewhat like Lima or Fava beans. I got the first batch from a seed catalog and then kept selecting for size and yield. Unfortunately, my yard has too much shade now to grow them.

      I also used to buy soy flour and experiment with using it in bread, rolls, etc. The first time it was very, very nasty. I eventually learned to toast the soy flour in the oven before mixing it with anything else (low heat, 10-15 minutes, as I recall). It then had a mild, pleasant flavor.

    • Haven’t got mine either, So I guess it will be all right to be 5+ months late sending in the next tax return? I think I’ll change my name to al sharpton, that and claim I’m black.

  12. Trump’s popularity went up 10 points because of the raid.

    THAT is why the media and the pols are “piling on.”

    Trump simply defies every single one of the metrics by which political candidates have been destroyed. The Dems can’t figure out how to stop him, and don’t believe the “voting irregularities” which occurred in 2020 will be repeatable. They are down to two choices, either shoot him, or lock him up, and doing either will martyr him and make Trump even more popular. This is why they are seeking very focused potential charges which would disqualify him from the Presidency, were he to be found guilty of them. If they can hang charges on him, even without a conviction, they may get to face a DeSantis/(Eric Trump) ticket in 2024; if they can’t, they’ll have to face a (Donald Trump)/DeSantis main event card…

    The question may arise: What happens if they disqualify Trump, and he receives a ginormous landslide vote in spite of the d/q?

    Y’all contemplate that.

    I don’t believe the Constitution makes any provision for that occurrence, just like it doesn’t make a provision for stealing an election.

    Personally, I’m putting Orville on my next shopping list, because my stockpile isn’t nearly big enough for this 27-month-long shitshow…

    • “The Dems can’t figure out how to stop him, and don’t believe the “voting irregularities” 

      Everyone seems to be concerned over the election.. my fear is with the stupid stuff they have been doing..there’s a lot more to be concerned over than a dam election..
      The sheer fact that they don’t see this is even more terrifying..

      • The hope is the Republicans will take both houses AND replace enough RINOs in the process, that the remainder will be scared into using their majority to do good for the nation, instead of themselves. “Good for the nation” is defined here as: “Stop the bleeding, stop doing stupid shit, and as much as possible, stop President Susan Rice from further destroying the United States…”

        Then hope a President Trump or President DeSantis can reverse and fix the crimes the government has committed against We, the People.

  13. Welcome to Laundry Monday! Get your whites as white as the WH.

    Months into sanctions, whales are coming up for air. Hey, it’s okay now for the big banks to help funds divest out of Russian bonds and securities and still tiptoe inside US/Western sanctions apparently. Who is buying?

    • Speaking of buying, what is going on with cargo ship Razoni, first ship out of the Black Sea under the 3 nation + UN JCC with Ukrainian grain? According to msm, the Lebanese buyer backed out, a Turkish buyer took 5% of the load, and now the ship is allegedly heading to Egypt hoping for a sale of the rest. So much for Ukrainian grain feeding the starving in the world. Also so far 1 and possibly 2 ships worth of grain have been earmarked for Iran and another for China.

      How many tens of billions has Nato pumped into Ukraine? And after all that, the Istanbul-based Joint Coordination Center (JCC) overseeing Ukrainian grain shipments is bossed by the UN?
      According to the UN’s JCC news release on their Turkey webpage, the JCC operation is fulfilling up to 17 objectives of the UN’s sustainable development program. The UN’s negotiators in the leadup to JCC were a career UK diplomat dealing with the Ukrainians, and a former vp of Costa Rica and WEF supporter to deal with the Russians.

      Well back to South Carolina as a world leader has been working on his links game on a deserved week of vacation, it’s back to the office in DC tomorrow to sign the Inflation Reduction Act. Then off home to Delaware for the rest of the week for some well-earned rest. Vacations are tiring.

      Let’s get back to DJ Ure in the studio ready to drive another Fab 4 hit down the fairway:
      “Dr. Robert”.

      • 2025 Spoiler Alert: The Oxford Dictionary of African American English (ODAAE) is being edited and will be rapping on your door. Make sure this essential piece of woke bling has prominent place in your crib?

  14. Im starting to look forward to reading west Texas everyday . Anyway stay strong folks . George knows my basic indicator for crash and burn . It’s flashing short short short . As I always thought market crash will slow these evil bastards down

    • Hello Len,
      Thank you for your kind recent comments. You must be telepathic. I was going to write you about a great book written by Brian Kilmeade, “SAM HOUSTON & the ALAMO AVENGERS”, The Texas Victory that Changed American History. It is available on Amazon. I read your comment about Sam Houston and Jim Bowie. Reincarnation?
      Take care.
      Your friend,
      Sam ;)

  15. Also here down under . Lots and lots of gun shootings . Murders and random shooting even at airports . Here in the land of confiscation gun usage is alive and kicking . Liberal bastards , also exposed our ex dictator/ pm appointed himself to govern everything during Covid lie time

  16. When Jerome drops rates which he will the basic inverse relationship between yield and treasury price will work again .TLT is a great buy here . The FED will ditch their sheetcoin for treasury scam . The bond market is what it’s about . The FED and ussa treasury have no intent of ever paying China or anyone what they owe

    • Len, we owe more than our entire GDP to foreign governments. I don’t believe we could pay our debt…

  17. Also . Last one . Someone should tell the paid salesman forUSD everybody is dumping it . It’s garbage like the market . Not george but heaps of gurus paid to spruke . One fella even got out of stir and got a cushy job with his Greek laptop

  18. “Because like the bar (or, at least in the “old days”) the gender used to be a binary dice roll. In other words, a male or female would appear.”

    Still binary — still male or female. It is not our problem if the person walking through the door is too stupid to know their gender, unless we pick them up and later discover a basic incompatibility…

    • ISTM humans have a habit of needlessly, endlessly complicating that which is, in reality, simple. Then again, I don’t have the ‘nads to play options…

      • It is because they have this desire to be special

        The more special, the more bennies.

        Like a person I know stated: I’m mexican and gay (with a whining voice) which makes me a double minority!!!!

        This is after this person had done their DNA testing which showed they were majority white with some hispanic, yadda, yadda, mixed in there.

        The whine started in the teens, established itself, like a career, all through the 20’s, 30’s, and now into the 40’s, but now at the mid 40’s, it’s a BONUS bennies benefit. Multiple states, and multiple programs, and many multiples of bennies.

        All this person needs to do now is write a book: “How to Live Off of Other People Your Whole Life, AND…When the Ones Who Love You Get Tired of You; Scream Victimhood and Source and Siphon The Bennies!!!

        Or, how about: “How I Whined Myself to The Benefit Section in Every State.”

    • Aw hell, Ray. Some folks can’t distinguish between indoor and outdoor plumbing.
      While others will believe any old bullshit someone tells ’em.

  19. “Odd Ukraine story: Senior Kremlin official ‘secretly approaches West to bring Ukraine invasion to an end’. What? End a war before objectives in body counts and profits? Not on this planet, Bubba…”

    Nope. Not buyin’ it. An anonymous informant making alleged and unsubstantiated claims doesn’t hold any more water in London than it does here.

    Give me a name or a transcript.

    Until then, bugger off…

      • $2500, and it looked like it had been buried in someone’s pigsty for 10 years.

        No 88 is beyond restoration simply because of what it is, but that one was more than I can handle…

        • I look at radios like I looked at potential mates back in my single years.
          They should look good and not require too much work up front. The great ones can be expensive, but you get what you hold out for.

          I have “the whole set” of SX-101, HT-32B and HT-33B linear (including a spare elusive PL-172).
          One of these days I will knock Urban back one day a week and actually attempt (again) to retire. Got enough projectds in queue for the bench to last me till 85 – and after that, might even have time to operate some of them!!!

          SPEAKING HAM RADIO

          I forgot to tell Hank my right-hand quardrufilar came off a Chilean fishing boat. Been gathering dust in the shop waiting for a break in the insanity to go up on the shop roof for SDR APT…and I just got the second Linux laptop fired up yesterday. Only one more PC to go: One for CNC and 3D work, one for astronomy, one for FLDIGI when the ham operating position rebuild comes up on the list.

      • “I have “the whole set” of SX-101, HT-32B and HT-33B linear (including a spare elusive PL-172).”

        Ditto, except I have a 33a and a 117 (with HA-10) instead of the 101, and “elusive” really doesn’t describe the PL-172.

        How are you liking the LINUX boxes…?

  21. GU: If you feel an odd sense of “tension” going around, and the world feels like “Something bad is going to happen” – you are now in The WEEK when that could very well be the case.

    MICHAEL BURRY: “Can’t shake that silly pre-Enron, pre-9/11, pre-WorldCom feeling,” Burry said in the now-deleted tweet. He frequently deletes his tweets shortly after they are posted.

    https://nypost.com/2022/08/15/michael-burry-dumps-stock-portfolio-after-market-crash-warnings/

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