Outlook from the ’29 Replay Model

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Odds appear to be increasing that we are entering the larger Wave 3 down in markets.  Not that we won’t rally first; of course we will.

But consider where our Aggregate Index work was on November 8, 2021:  41,953.86 .  Based on the close Tuesday, it had rallied from a low of 30,870.04 June 16th of this year.  In financial market wave theory, this was a drop of  26 percent.

The good news is that since the mid-June low, we had rallied (to last Wednesday) 18.87% which was a fine run.

Today – for entertainment purposes only – we continue looking for clues as to what is likely next.  If you’re thinking “Well, a wave 1 down, a wave 2 up, means we wave 3 down is pending?”  Give yourself a gold star.

Even if we make another rally  into early September (9th) the word “pending” quickly evaporates.

But more as we take a deep dive into financial history to figure out what presentry may have in store for us.

After Durable Goods and a check of the sideshows, of course.

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37 thoughts on “Outlook from the ’29 Replay Model”

  1. Throw on a fresh pot of coffee and peel back the dust covers! Mr. Biden is returning to the WH according to the official schedule. The office of the Ukrainian president posted the president’s Independence Day speech with Ukrainian (Russian?) subtitles today. No English. He wore khaki. The “Kiev Post” notes the ban on mass events in Kiev from Aug. 22-25 remains in effect. The fireworks display must be off. Btw, happy 40th of the Vicky N. youth camp exchange to Odessa. But really, tossing dirty sunflower seeds at the Ukrainian children to eat? Tsk, tsk.

  2. Rumor was Little Bush had a DUI and wasn’t allowed into Canada because of the law breaking.

    50 years ago….

    “On September 4, 1976, Bush was arrested for driving under the influence of alcohol near his family’s summer home in Kennebunkport, Maine. He admitted his guilt, was fined US$150, and had his driving license in the state briefly suspended.”

    “We didn’t know drunk driving was a bad idea during the 1970’s. Freebird was blaring, Billy Beer was flowing and women were enjoying their new found elixirs birth control and on-demand abortion. Drunk driving was just a part of the experience.” (sic).

    • I don’t recall Bush’s situation. But there is a difference in the situation. Can be found drunk driving, but not run or fight or cause other citizens damage? Also is this a first offense or has it happened before. If these are first offenses our society is generally pretty forgiving and unless you had some further issue during the event, I think jail time is not a normal result. So I don’t think this is getting off free, if this is a first offense, that is likely pretty normal for most citizens rich or poor. We should have equal justice, though if it had been a prominent conservative (any left in Cali?), we just have to assume there would have been a harsher outcome. I don’t mind if laws are harsh or lenient, I would only like to see them applied the same way regardless of politics, notoriety or wealth. I know I keep dreaming people enforcing our laws are moral, honest people.

      • So, Bush the 2nd, as I call him, was a notorious cocaine user; it came out, all dirty like, when he ran for Governor of Texas.

        His wife threw a final fit over his hard partying ways, and he cut it out….and their marriage continued and he now brings her coffee every morning before she gets out of bed.

        So, not only did he have a DWI, a very sketchy covered up hike in the Air National Guard, but he was a notorious drug user until his late 30’s to early 40’s. Kinda like HuntTheBiden (Ure feel free to use this.)

        He was treated with the kiddiest of gloves, same as the Kennedy’s, and et al – ad infinitum.

        There were also rumors, and it was written about, that he impregnated an African American hooker. She is since deceased.

        But ole BillieBoyClinton also impregnated an African American hooker (she is now deceased as well); that story has gone on the down low, but look it up, and check out the pictures of the fine young man that Mr. and Mrs. President Clinton want nothing to do with (tip: he looks a lot like Bill.)

        But yet, these rumors of Bill being infertile persist.

        Chelsea is rumored to be another man’s daughter, when you compare the pictures, it is hard not to believe it!!!

        What are the chances that 2 married adults would decide to allow: a) their spouse to be impregnated by someone else, and b) to impregnate someone else besides their spouse?

        Or maybe it’s not about allowing or permission and it’s just about marital infidelity and let the sperm and egg land where it may lay, conceptualized or not, bloom where they are planted.

        Hmmm…hmmm.

        Rules for Thee but not for me.

        Mr. Pelosi’s DWI, crash, and causing injury to the other driver and totaling each of their cars; yes, he got handled with kid gloves.

      • @IMHO

        “Chelsea is rumored to be another man’s daughter,”

        That’d be Sandy Burglar…

        Clinton and Berger were best friends from college on. Rumor has it they would double-date, then switch-off. Bill once said: (para) “You think I’m a whore? Hillary goes both ways, and has had 10x as many women as I have…”

        ‘Thing is, we used to have a press corps, the members of which were honorable. Everybody knew JFK was boffing Marilyn Monroe, but nobody “knew” it until after he and Bobby (and MM) had passed, and it was never mentioned, even in the tabs, when he was alive.

    • Seems Little Bush may have gotten away with a lot more than having a DUI. It was reported that he was suspended from flying in the Air National Guard for either refusing, or failing, a drug test. Also, apparently, he went AWOL for a time, but ultimately was honorably discharged.

      In the late 70’s, I spent 7 weeks in Panama City doing an audit. I met and worked with quite a few locals. The streets were always crowded and busy, international banks on every corner, a bustling metropolis.

      Years later, I was shocked when I learned that we had invaded Panama City, dropping hundreds of bombs, killing thousands of innocent civilians, etc., just to take out Noriega? It never made sense to me, not even the official transcripts. Everyone knew, as had been widely reported, that Noriega was employed by the CIA and was very active in drugs and arms smuggling and probably human smuggling. We have jackals everywhere. If he had gotten too big for his britches, he could have easily been taken out without such a show of force and all the accompanying death and destruction.

      Years later, I was reading one of John Perkin’s books, I believe the second in his Confessions of an Economic Hit Man series. In this book, Perkins may have answered my lingering questions about that invasion. He claims to have been confided in by a high up official in a neighboring country, who requested anonymity, that Noriega had been videotaping the frequent visitors to a private resort on Contadora Island, off the coast of Panama. One of the guests captured on video was Little Bush, apparently in some very compromising, or worse, situations, and the possibility that Noriega had gotten into attempting to blackmail powerful people, including the Bush Dynasty family, prompted the necessity of a powerful message along with the destruction of all documents (and videos) held in Noriega’s government establishments. It finally made sense.

      Yup, these people are untouchable, not to mention completely without conscience or scruples, and a slap on the hand for a DUI is the very least of it.

      • going a little further along the rabbit hole..one could connect “compromising, or worse” to Yale and the skull & bones “club”.

        not called “bonesmen” for nothing, just ask John Kerry or bushies gay ass classmate/best bud, the ambassador..

        wonder what they been doing up there in the woods at bohemian grove…’grown men playing in the woods with each other, and “others’ – at night” ???

        is it irony that majority of these “freaks’ are masons ? or just a wryd coinkydink? hmmm

  3. “If Ukraine is going to nuke the power plant, and China plans to “reunify” Taiwan, can ya’ll just get on with it?  It’s messing up my plans around here.”

    Fortunately..neither I don’t believe that Putin or Xi want to see any escalations..
    As for a war.. when have you ever seen a conflict where residents were allowed to leave peaceful.. and how long did we listen day after day asking pleading and almost begging NATO and the USA to back away.. then Xi being the diplomatic one seeking a reasonable and peaceful resolution…
    I believe if it’s going to go nuclear..it’s up to biden and nato leap frogging this to happen.. we have armed their opponents, threatened, sanctioned..
    And every time there’s another warning for us to stop..

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/23/britain-must-prepared-go-war-russia/

    Now.. what do I see.. I remember the biography of putin.. and when they attacked the Russian outpost.. he gave the attackers every option to back away..they did fortunately.. he is doing this now..
    The news stories out of the UK say putin is loosing running out of steam.. from my perspective.. nato wants to change Russia and china.. so their one world govt. Becomes a reality..if putin looses china’s on their own . If he looses Russia as it is will no longer be.. a grizzly bear cornered and threatened is one dangerous animal..it will fight to the death for her cubs..and so will Putin..Xi it’s the same way..he’s more calculated.. but if it looks like either one..the poison pawn trap will close.. and I believe all at once..
    Fortunately they haven’t gotten to that point yet.. i bieve we should be thankful Putin and Xi are the ones we are facing and putins faith in listening to his friend and advisor that is a philosopher .. hardliners would have gone all out already..

    • Farther up the “pyramid”,above masonic eye, you might find the current parasitical class (Papists) feasting on “loosh”- as bobby monroe coined the term.
      “They” feed off Humanity , Exploit Us, Feed off the Discontent, Sad emotions..

      One big giant nasty ass tick (org. religion) sucking on the life blood (control) -essences of humanity. Weakens the spirit – harder to traverse thru the bardo/deathtraps unscathed..getting off the fucking “Wheel”…

      -The peoples from the land of Ice are bringing an ‘orthodox’ FIRE.

      Burn WEFers, Burn!

    • Look for everyone to start writing/running stories of political face saving in the MSM> slowly in drips and drops, then all at once. As soon as all news outlets start doing this with all sides claiming something, we will know that the $ ACH pivot to blockchain is in full force …aka.. Kabuki Theater cab be shelved until the next public distraction is needed.

      Option #2 Outcome: Thunderdome.

      P.S. what makes you think that the hardliners arent behind it already. [zoom out to the bigger picture]. Macro economically. To Mr. Ure’s point: everything is a business model. and wagging the dog.

  4. ” forgive us  for mentioning the U.S./West is doing everything in  its power to escalate tensions in Taiwan in order to create the Next Crisis. ”

    Ohhh..like disrespectful activities.. the I dare you dance like a child makes playing tag..
    Or just spitting on their requests and demands..parking nukes off their borders.. hmm..
    I don’t see what could possibly go wrong with any of that…
    I should give Julie a call and get some cup top sealing film coming my way..

  5. The Stock Market can’t decide. Do we stick with the Charmin?.., or do we break-out the baby-wipes?

  6. “Two types of Just Us in America are under the microscope.  Upon reading Paul Pelosi gets 5 days in jail, 3 years of probation in DUI  you might think the House Speaker’s hubby has been properly punished”

    Lol lol around here he would be doing 90 days in jail then six years and fined up the azz..till it hurts.. well that is if he was a regular person.. if someone died then 20 years or ten to twenty If someone got hurt with an attempted vehicular homicide conviction.. those with political ties or high ranking govt. Jobs don’t even see an increase in their insurance rates… but then I’m sure they have some important stock deals to make..

  7. I don’t really care about Ukraine. It is up to them to learn to live with their neighbors. I just cannot stand our government stealing our tax money (or just printing it), and giving it away to foreign governments. It is not theirs to give. Every US residence is welcome to write Ukraine a check if this cause is important to them. We have not declared war on Russia, and so I don’t see a constitutional reason congress is allowed to send them our treasure. It makes me sick, the amount of power that we have given to those self serving war mongering leaders.

    • I see the logic portion of your brain hasn’t died yet. Keep on keepin’ on bruthuh! Just ’cause nothing makes sense doesn’t mean you’re wrong.

  8. “Two types of Just Us in America are under the microscope.  Upon reading Paul Pelosi gets 5 days in jail, 3 years of probation in DUI  you might think the House Speaker’s hubby has been properly punished”

    What’s sad..is I know a young woman..forced into prostitution.. with threats of death by the pimps ( she was after all just their property)..she kept trying to escape they kept finding her..
    Then when they caught the guys the guys made sure she knew that if she testified against them.. they had contacts outside that would make her regret it..
    She was to terrified to testify against them..they through the book at her..she gets 30 years because no one was willing to offer her protection and she was terrified.
    The dual standards of law.. Julian assange..released proof of corruption to everyone..he was imprisoned..now that he’s co.ing to the usa he’s on suicide watch..those that gave him the documents..well I believe that they all died committed suicide or was mugged and killed..those investigating whether or not there was questionable activities.. i believe they are dead as well.. everyone going to testify suicide..

  9. Why are we so concerned with the FAR EAST when we barely can handle our local affairs? Domestic politics — a JOKE.

      • I am far over 90 yoa ;-). It never made any difference in “my personal life” who dictated anything !!!!!!!

        It’s all a matter of personal view — if you think a certain way that will make you a slave, so be it. ;-((

        Individually one is always free to chose, that’s my experience, and I don’t share your negativity, sorry!

      • CHOICES, at 90, of course you don’t share another younger person’s POV; and I wouldn’t call FACTS, negativity.

        FACTS that our government and other entities willfully decided to do to limit the progress of the American workers/citizens.

        Look what has changed in the last 30 – 40 years, changes that hardly affected you.

        1) Getting into Harvard, Yale, or any Ivy League School, much harder for White citizens;
        2) Getting medical policies with lower monthly premiums and annual deductibles, almost impossible;
        3) Your children receiving a decent education without having to teach to the lowest common denominator, and in many of our schools, in our city, English is not even the first language, so it slows the whole class down;
        4) Extreme shutdown and loss of millions of good-paying manufacturing jobs – replaced with low wage jobs;
        5) Competing with millions of illegals and hundreds of thousands of H1B Visa holders for high-level STEM jobs, as well as the whole downstream hiring of illegals that have negatively affected non-college educated Americans in Hotels, Restaurants, Hospitals, Grocery Stores, Fast Food Restaurants, Nursing Homes, Construction, Home Building, Banking, Meat Packing, and thousands of other now unavailable positions/jobs that only mostly Spanish speaking job shop owners hire only Spanish speaking hires;
        6) Creating the Contractor Wage/Job Shopper rules/laws that impede income for Americans;
        7) Importing drugs to the tune of millions dead in the last 40 years;
        Etc.

        My list is short but not exhaustive; it is actually a taste of the demise committed on/in/ and to our society by our own government who HAVE dictated these laws/rules/agenda to destroy the USA from within.

        Maybe you didn’t spend your formative working years in this kind of environment.

        A lot of others have. IT HAS CAUSED A LOT OF CHAOS.

    • Exactly… AMEN…
      Our infrastructure is at the verge of collapse..we haven’t done any real upgrades just defensive maintenance..
      I believe that Our major concern is to keep the ones pulling the strings happy.. in the end its all in the business model..

    • choices,
      “Why are we so concerned with the Far East…?”

      Psst, msm is reporting on the heels of deleted Secret Service January 6th texts that the outgoing Secret Service Director will be taking up employment with the social media phenom Snapchat that deletes posts after 24 hours and is a hot ticket with the young set. One of the American Snapchat co-founders is the 55th richest person in the world. He sits on the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council moving little people from Western globalization to a “multi-polar” world. According to Wikipedia, even Supreme Leader Mr. Xi has had time to offer direct input into the Council’s three past conferences in Beijing entitled “Understanding China”. I imagine if either of us was worth $13+ billion and had an app that mesmerized youth, Mr. Xi would accept our calls. As an aside, judging by Mr. Zelensky’s repeated public requests to no avail for Mr. Xi to call him, one questions if Mr. Z.’s net worth and/or follower demographics have been found wanting.

    • Companies relocated American factories to the Far East to take advantage of totalitarian management of the local labor pool. Now those same companies have to grovel to brown shirts in black shirt drag to get material to carry out their manufacturing, and to be allowed to ship to their American markets.
      I am routinely discussing supply chain issues with major suppliers, and the situation in the Far East is deteriorating.
      The MBA’s have looted the country on behalf of their foreign masters, and we will all be paying for their treasons.

  11. The Shock To The System Is Here.

    Neighborhood newsletter came today. In it, In Memoriam.

    “A woman has passed away suddenly.”

    She was healthy in her early 30’s.”

    This woman and I had a conversation about vaccines. I warned her against them, she replied with medical superior reasoning, so she would not listen to anything outside of her box, so I stopped talking.

    She has left behind a fine husband and son.

    https://www.thepostemail.com/2022/06/20/the-latest-tragedy-sudden-adult-death-syndrome/

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