Consumer Price Data: US In Deflation

The Consumer Price report is just out from the Labor Department.  As always, there’s some good news and some bad in it.  The BAD is that on a 12 month basis the unadjusted 12-month numbers are down – two-tenths of one percent

This leads fearful bureaucrats to quick, hurry up and seasonally adjust something, quick!  Of course, since April of 2014 was exactly the same season as April 2015, just adjustments smell to rational people (like us, though I’m not too sure about thee) to smell like an odiferous male cow pie.

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index declined 0.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in April and led to the slight increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index.

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Coping: The I-Ching Inbox & Real Life Ray

This morning’s column was going to be a dissertation on how Skype and other video conferencing is bleeding out travel companies.  But the research on that quickly got hip deep and will turn into a Peoplenomics™ report.  It’s interesting ground to till.

With far too much data, I was wondering what would make an interesting topic.  So I consulted the I-Ching Inbox. 

I’ve mentioned my I-Ching Inbox before:  When a reader asked a while back “Where can I buy this I-Ching Inbox software?” I hated to break the news to him:  Everybody has an I-Ching Inbox, already.  It’s abbreviated ICIB.

The way is works is simple:  You just “throw the sticks” mentally and go through your email inbox with no particular focus. 

That’s right – unlike those management geeks that say “sort with purpose, delete mercilessly, I will advise you to do exactly the opposite.  There are gems in there; but you have to keep an open (placid or still) mind to pick up on what the Universe is laying before you.

Take this morning, for example.

There I was, sleepily going through emails with nothing in mind, other than the question I wanted the ICIB to answer.

Poof!

Magically, an email from my friend Ray appeared.

Ray’s written many times – and in fact I’m terrible at not answering email.  (Elaine would tell you I get “stuck” in the space between  the ears, often as not.  She’s got questions that get asked over a three day period before I get around to answering them.)

This morning, the ICIB produced a marvelous email from Ray that sums up many of our recent discussions and ponderings. 

“This is the kind of thing readers want to read, Ure” was what it was telling me.  “Readers want representation and Ray is the kind of quality reader you want.  He’s not too liberal, not whacked conservative, bright, well learned, articulate…and he writes as well as you…”

It took a few seconds for the thought to clarify.  The ICIB was telling me, in so many words, to let Ray’s email be this morning’s column.

Bit risky, I thought.   After all, Ray’s email began with a FB/texting abbreviation some people might not get: ISTM.

It Seems to Me = ISTM” reported the Omnipotent Browser, who’d been quietly observing my dilemma through an open window.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained:  Here’s Reader Representative Ray’s take on things:

“ISTM George, the moreder you think about Waco, the pisseder you get…
Just for funsies, I dropped in yesterday on a 2-wheeler site which tracks (and probably sponsors) a number of rallies, poker runs, and other sundry GTGs.

My one-word comment about this latest Waco incident:
Baldwin.

Baldwin, Michigan is a town of about 600 people. They host the oldest “Blessing of the Bikes” of which I’ve ever heard (started in the 1950s or early ’60s.) It is the biggest biker rally in North America that nobody has heard of (I’m assuming people have heard about Myrtle Beach…) This year’s 3-day event hosted 40,000 bikers.

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Guilty! Global Banksters Walk

Care to guess which banks have pleaded guilty to criminal charges and are paying $5-billion in fines?

JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Barclays and the Royal Bank of Scotland.

UBS got whacked for #$203-million in fines.  And Bank of America got hit with a $205-million fine, too. 

All of which should erode your confidence in the banking and justice systems, because despite the fines, everyone (wink-wink) knows that most of these guys are too big to fail.

So it will be business (and campaign contributions) as usual.

Disgusting, but that’s how we roll when government is owned by corporate interests to the point where it doesn’t even control the money anymore.

CFNAI

That what?  Chicago Fed National Activity Index.  Out this morning and up a tad for April:

Led by gains in employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved up to –0.15 in April from –0.36 in March. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from March, but only one of the four categories made a positive contribution to the index in April.

Markets are set to open down just a bit. 

Three Day Weekend Notes

I should have told you Tuesday to fill up the car.

Gas prices as of this morning are up a nickel from a week ago, according to the Triple A Fuel Gauge report.

Tomorrow morning we get the Consumer Price report, and I expect the gas increase (almost 30-cents in the past month) will be blamed for the increase. 

Has nothing to do with run-away money printing and buying our own bonds, you don’t suppose, do you?

Greeced and Ready

You did see, I trust, that Greece is supposed to go bust in June?

That’s why Germany, France, and Greece are talking about (look surprised) another bailout.

One of the bigger scams in media, when you read up on Greece debt problems, is how finance writers are all warning of oh, how terrible it would be, to see them opt out of the EU.

Are you kidding?  Living on made-up money? And being forced into national indentures run by scoundrels?

Greeks, I reckon, would find a way to care for one another.

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Coping: With Ham Radio’s “Hunting Season” & EMP

If I seem a little bit distracted over the next couple of months, there’s a simple reason for it:  I’ll be spending some extra time on eBay looking for the next tube type radio to repair for this coming winter DX season.

DX is ham radioese for distant or distance.  And in the winter, especially after the holidays when there’s little besides “formula” television offered in media, nothing beat a tube-type radio, a hot cup of cocoa, and a large low-band antenna set-up.

On the 75-meter band (say from 3.75 MHZ up to 4 MHZ) you can strike up a conversation almost any night after dark, but in the summer there’s a lot of atmospheric noise that screws things up a bit. 

Ingenious hams have come up with noise blankers  and such, but the underlying noise is a problem  often until close to 11 PM.

In the wintertime, however, the band can be open for DX as early as 5 to 6 PM. 

Restoring old ham  gear is something I don’t talk about much…but there is a way to actually make money restoring gear, if you know what you’re doing.

Unlike “appliance operators” those of us who know which end of the soldering iron goes where enjoy buying broken equipment and returning it to useful condition.

To do that, you need parts.  And if you enjoy restoring tube-type gear, you’ll need to buy a tube-tester (like the kind that used to be in drug stores, back when televisions and radios still had tubes) and you’ll need a couple of good sources because there aren’t many tubes being made these days.

This fascination with tube technology isn’t limited to the odd nutter-in-the-woods, like (ahem) Ures truly.

There is a who underworld of hi-fi, musicians, and audiophiles who keep the tube selling business flourishing.

My two favorite sources are Bob’s EX Shop/The Tube Meister and the K5SVC store – both of them on eBay.

Tube-type radio gear is different from what I call “squalid-state” radios.  ANYONE can write a $15,000 check and get a top of the line Icom, Yaesu, or Kenwood radio and a 60-foot (or higher) tower with a big rotatable beam antenna.

But that’s where the term “appliance operator” comes from.  Morse Code is no longer required so between  the Asian  radio makers and the absence of Morse for us fundamentalists, tube-type gear is a kind of Last Bastion of Olde School.

With my son (KF7OCD) coming down for a visit, I’ve spent a few minutes on the bench this week restoring an old Swan 350-D.  Got the receiver back to life – and since the receiver and transmitter share much of the same signal path, the transmitter part should be easy.  I’ve already put in new driver and final amplifier tubes..

The most common problem in old radios is they develop terrible hum problems.  This is invariably from dried out capacitors in power supplies.  A search for old radio capacitors in Google will generate tons of leads.  (Most of them, you can solder, lol.)

Since I imagine myself to be a “Hallicrafters Man” one of the best capacitor kit shops around is N0JMY’s Hayseed Hamfest site.  Here, you can buy a complete capacitor kit for many of the classic Hallicrafters radios.

My favorite wintertime radio is the SX-117 receiver and matching HT-44 transmitter.  They wouldn’t be complete without the legendary T.O. Keyer that automatically makes dots and dashes so you can blast through the 25 Word Per Minute Morse barrier.

Typically, my son will wander into my office/ham shack and ask an impertinent question like “Dad, why do you need all these radios?  You already have the Kenwood 590S and it’s hard to be that…why all this junk?”

He’d have a good point – how many radios can one person operate simultaneously, after all.

Fortunately, it’s not that simple.

Part of the reason may be found on Robin Sherwood’s (Sherwood Engineering) website where he’s defined the art of measuring super-high performance radios.

Scroll down to Collins 75-S3B.  Sporting a noise floor of –146 dbm this radio smokes modern equipment. 

The reason is fairly straight-forward:  Direct Digital Synthesis (DDS) and most other solid-state oscillators are not particularly “clean” when it comes to an ultra-pure sine wave to pump into a mixer stage.  There can be phase noise/jitter/and anything less than a perfect sine wave evolves these byproducts. 

That’s what even now, some of the best radios ever made were old school.  I didn’t see a listing for the SX-117, but properly updated, it should be down in that –135 or better range.

It’s a lot like an artist with a paint brush. 

Sure, the Kenwood will do everything, very well, including digital modes.  The tube gear isn’t as good for that because old radio designs may drift a tiny bit – and that’s admittedly one downfall.

But tube type gear just sounds “warmer”.  Over-drive a stage in a solid-state radio and as soon as you get there, distortion is in your face.  In a tube radio, there’s a nice predictable flattening as a tube approaches nonlinearity and it’s this predictable aspect that made classic guitar amplifiers so warm-sounding.

Beyond picking the right radio for the mission, though, there is the matter of heat.

We don’t play with tube-type gear in Texas, much, between about the end of March through November first.  No need for heat in that period.

But when the weather is down in the teens, the stars are so cold they don’t even twinkle…well, that’s when tube-type radios are amazing.

To really get an old radio whipped into shape is usually a 90-day process.  The radio needs to be shipped.  Then  an initial assessment made.  A work plan developed.

There are parts to be ordered after the first visit to the bench, including some tubes.  The library of back issues of Electric Radio must be consulted for performance tweaks.

If you are totally into it, while the tubes and other parts are on order, there’s time to sand blast the cabinet, take the Dremel buffer to the chassis, or maybe even run the radio through the dishwasher.

Send your spouse shopping first.

If you can’t afford to sent your wife shopping, there are alternatives as laid out in this Instructable over here.  The main thing is to be sure to destroy the evidence of any repurposing done in the kitchen.

Seems like an odd thing to be discussing, I’m sure.  But tube radios, other than being relatively EMP proof, are great fun to work on provided you remember the “One hand in the pocket” rule and you’re careful to avoid shock with the hand doing the work.

Didn’t mean to get off onto a radio discussion this morning, but with this being a three day weekend coming up, there are just too many cool things to do – and time off for many – so why not talk about hobbies and what turns our crank?

One of the most dangerous aspects of reading UrbanSurvival is that you may develop a sense of “quality outside of time.”

It’s the reason I like 1980’s fiberglass sailboats, 1960s and 70s aircraft, and mid 80’s Porsches.

Done all of those..but beyond fixing yet another radio, I’m thinking about a new hobby/pursuit for next year when we plan to sell the airplane.

I’m thinking about an RV since it’s one of the few hobbies I haven’t done.  And it could be interesting.  Rehabbing an older RV “classic” might be fun…but still thinking on that one.

In the meantime, though, off to spend a few minutes a day over summer.  That’s when a lot of great tube-type gear shows up.,

It’s like I learned from my motorcycling days.

Buy a motorcycle on the coldest, wettest, most miserable day of the year.  A storm in early January is perfects.  Find someone who needs money and drive a hard bargain.

Ride the bike for 6-months and sell it in July.  

I’m starting to watch RV prices to see if I can spot the “natural cycle” in that one, but the ham radio hunting season is more or less open as of this weekend.

Oh, and if you find a complete Collins S-Line (with either the 30-L1 or the 30-S1 amplifier), please feel free to donate it to the cause.

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The Terrorism that Worries Me

In a phrase, it’s the “New Crime” that hasn’t been pulled off — year.  Think box-cutters.

This week,  we roll out some of my worst fears about the immediate future.  There are, like you couldn’t have figured it out without help, a lot of ways that a very small group of determined people, perhaps no more than a dozen, could wreak havoc on life in the U.S.

Today we consider the difficulty of protecting against such yet-top-be-pulled capers and recall that prior to D.B.

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Housing Start Surge 20+% – Stock Blow-off at Hand

Look for the market to put on new records today. 

And I know that how?

Well, Home Depot stock is smoking – and when their earnings hit, it was $1.21 a share in earnings.  Hard to beat that in this [sucky] environment.  I mean, how many companies are posting 21% profit increases, here lately?

The second factor in my optimism is the Housing Data just out this morning:

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,143,000. This is
10.1 percent (±2.2%) above the revised March rate of 1,038,000 and is 6.4 percent (±2.1%) above the April 2014 estimate of
Single-family authorizations in April were at a rate of 666,000; this is 3.7 percent (±0.9%) above the revised March figure of 642,000.
Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 444,000 in April.
HOUSING STARTS
Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,135,000. This is 20.2 percent (±14.4%) above
the revised March estimate of 944,000 and is 9.2 percent (±10.6%)* above the April 2014 rate of 1,039,000.
Single-family housing starts in April were at a rate of 733,000; this is 16.7 percent (±10.6%) above the revised March figure of
628,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 389,000.
HOUSING COMPLETIONS
Privately-owned housing completions in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 986,000. This is 20.4 percent (±14.1%)
above the revised March estimate of 819,000 and is 19.4 percent (±15.2%) above the April 2014 rate of 826,000.
Single-family housing completions in April were at a rate of 688,000; this is 14.5 percent (±12.4%) above the revised March rate of
601,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 288,000.

Then there’s this press release from the Retail Gift Card Association:

“More than 70% of shoppers will be giving gift cards this spring and summer during the assortment of gift-giving holidays that are approaching, including graduations, Father’s Day, and weddings. New research from the Retail Gift Card Association (RGCA) also confirms that the gifts remain popular with recipients as well, with 95% of consumers hoping to receive gift cards this spring and summer season.

The Association surveyed more than 1,000 U.S. consumers on their use of gift cards and habits for giving and receiving the cards. The survey also explored shoppers’ preferences for physical gift cards versus newer gifting options like electronic gift cards (e-gift cards), which can be redeemed online or via a mobile device using a virtual code.

When you put it all together, you put together the picture of a seriously recovering market…

Oh, and did I mention the short-squeeze of all time is nearly here that could push the Dow to upwards of 28,000?  Year on Year, these home starts are up 9.2% and that’s why Home Depot stock might run a good bit more.

Dancing With Deflation

I love how the MSM hide reality in plain sight. 

Here’s a WSJ article on how the UK is flirting with deflation.

Oh, wait…it’s not flirting really, is it?  I mean when year on year prices are down (and this is despite quantitative pleasing’s and all the rest of it, can someone please start writing headlines that reflect like in at least the right Universe?

UK Nailed by Deflation: Bankers Sweat, Waffle, and Scheme” would have been oh so much more realistic.

But then again, the press release reliant media doesn’t seem to have the chutzpah it did, once upon a time before corporations took over governments….

Troubles in the War With Mexico

The “War With Mexico” has been underway for years.  It’s just that the spineless mainstream  doesn’t portray it that way.  Truth is, it’s an invading army – as people in Waco are noticing.

When conflict happens, the administration stooges all play softball, accept wishy-washy answers that wouldn’t pass muster with a 12-year old, and on we go.

Still, when you look, you’ll see Border Patrol Agents being injured – rather frequently.  And while all this goes on, the attacks on the border and illegal crossings continue unabated.

This is a classic  low intensity conflict.  It’s also a typical bi-level war.  I call it a “bi-level” war because if you make $100,000 a year, or more, there is no war.  You can  go to Mexico, pay your tourism fees, stay in a stylish place, and have a great time.

But if you’re poor, hear the American song and dance about coming north, and send the kids, then  when the kids make it through the war zone (perhaps carrying a couple of keys for the biker gangs) then it looks a lot more like a war.

So that’s what we call it around here.  War.

And that gets us to reviewing the leadership skills of Colonel Klink’s reincarnation…  You see, in the midst of a war (ask the folks in McAllen, Texas)…he has….

Yet Another Very Bad Idea

The Imperial President is cherry-picking again.

His latest terrible idea is to prevent state and local cops from enforcing immigration laws.

We’d like to offer to support the idea, in return for ending local enforcement efforts of other federal laws that don’t fit our agenda of convenience and political erxpediency, such as drug sales, securities fraud, and a lot of others.

What?  No takers?  Never a liberal or conservative around when you need one.

Well, then we have to decline to support this selective enforcement/tolerance  policy because it is bad policy.

Not like I’m the only one to see imperience amuck(see if that’s a word, please?

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Coping: With the “Oliver Nelson [framed] Problem”

Musical story:  Let’s role back the clock to 1967.  Ures truly is in high school and on weekends being the transmitter engineer at R&B station KYAC in Kirkland, WA. 

There, on Sunday mornings, it was my pleasure to engineer for Sonny Buxton’s Jazz Unlimited show. And it was there I developed a taste for Jazz.

Among my favorites was a composer – Oliver Nelson – whose band had some amazing works.  One in particular – Jazz and the Abstract Truth  has been a favorite for coming up on 50-years now.  You can find it on YouTube – provided you even know where to look.

I’ll save you the trouble; click here for the YT piece.

If you’re new to great jazz, you might want to stick with something a lot more “commercial” sounding.  Nelson’s “Stolen Moments” is great – very easy listening with only limited solo and ad lib work.  Another one, on his tribute to fallen U.S. President John Kennedy that gave Nelson a chance to explore his more cinematic side was “A Genuine Peace” that begins with a Kennedy speech excerpt.

No, this morning’s column is not a piece about “jazz appreciation.”  It’s actually about the choice of title for Nelson’s Jazz and Abstract Truth.

If you listen to the song 50-years – off and on – you discover the “music in your head” can be a set of hangars for your thinking.

While the jazz part has tons of solos, that at times may not even seem to make sense, by the end, it’s all pulled together to a satisfying finish.   Not all songs do this (that is, start, get a theme, and then wander off in all directions, only to all show up and play nicely together at the end) but it’s a fine metaphor for many things – including how to run successful companies and more.

There is – within music – much to be discovered about how we are as individual humans.  Perhaps because music has the unique ability to synchronize the two halves of the brain so that they can go off doing their own things, and yet, at the conclusion of a great thought process, all wander back in with a wonderful conclusion.

But it’s not always so bright because with a nicely crafted jazz metaphor, we can also occasionally make out how the external worlds, the ones beyond our control, actually work.

My offering for your consideration this morning, is that there are probably a half dozen “great situations” playing out in America right now.  Situations where we have briefly touched on purpose, but as in some of Nelson’s work, we’ve wandered off to abstract solo parts.

I get tons of emails from readers – and I read every comment submitted to this site before approving it for public consumption.

One of these dealt with the Texas Biker Shoot-out and it speaks to the “abstract truth” that seems very odd in proximity as it is to Jade Helm:

“…don’t think it was HOURS after the gang shootout that I turned on tv and found out about it. But as soon as I saw the news about it, and saw a lot of bikers sitting quietly  on a curb like kindergardeners,(no handcuffs on them, etc)   I had the same kind of feeling that I had the day I turned on tv and there was the news about the towers in New Yawk…..I had a calm “what is this?” feeling, and I didn’t think it was “real.” I saw that it was indeed real, yet still had a “what the heck is this?” feeling about the former .

  I’m not trying to make somethin’ out of nothin’……I just think the gang thing is not what it is proclaimed to be. When I was outside of Houston, about 2 wks ago, and about 30 minutes away from Bastrop, I saw about 4-6 bikers going down the street, and thought it was odd to see them there. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen any in person before. Wonder if this could really be some part of sicko game that is part of the exercise supposed to take place soon in Tx.  It just seems too odd to me to be unrelated to anything else.  It SAID on tv and in print, that a number of them had been killed (9?)and something like 200 arrested, and yet all I saw was the kindergardner group lined up nicely and without cuffs,sitting  on a curb.  News said it was a “bloody” or “gory” scene, yet I saw no pictures like that. I don’t know……….. M

And this person was not alone…here’s another reasonable comment:

“These Texas gangs dont look like Chicago/Peoria counterparts at all!

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Economics of the Waco Shoot-Out

The media accounts this morning, like this one, are placing the blame for the large number of deaths at a biker gang summit in Waco, on the lack of cooperation from the restaurant where the killings took place.

Some of the more interesting background on the clubs involved may be found over here.

Oddly, no mention of Hells Angels in this…although Banditos are apparently the predominant club in Texas.   Already, there’s talk of more violence to come from this.

All of which gets us to the economic discussion:  If clubs like this make their money on meth, weed and coke runs, what would happen if the US had a much more open or lenient drug environment and made marijuana legal?

Not likely to happen:  Police, prisons, gangs, treatment, it’s all one big economic circle.  Make drugs available freely and there goes the auto glass replacement business.  If crime disappeared tomorrow, it would crater the economic, it’s as simple as that.

As usual, I am not BS’ing you on this.

In  2001, Portugal decriminalized drugs and remains so to this day.  A 2009 Cato Institute Report, which was latter turned into a book, written by Constitutional lawyer Glenn Greenwald, includes this observation in their white paper about Portugal’s success with no drug laws:

The report also sets forth the data concerning
drug-related trends in Portugal both pre- and
postdecriminalization. The effects of decriminalization
in Portugal are examined both in
absolute terms and in comparisons with other
states that continue to criminalize drugs, particularly
within the EU.

The data show that, judged by virtually every
metric, the Portuguese decriminalization framework
has been a resounding success. Within this
success lie self-evident lessons that should guide
drug policy debates around the world.

I can’t count the times I have told you that turning crime into an industry (which is what for-profit prison operators are doing) is very bad for freedom.  Portugal’s experience is that legalizing drugs isn’t a bad thing.

Keeping them illegal – which leads to smuggling and gangs and such – is.

Well, except Portugal, if you remember, was one of the financially strapped (down and raped) PIIGS countries of the E.U.

Until we recognize that organized crime of all sorts is fundamentally economic exploitation, we can look forward to a lot more violence to come.  That will mean more cops, more lawyers, more prisons, more rehab, more halfway house operators, more street crime, more….

Somewhere, someone besides me has to notice that the end of  Prohibition ended organized crime’s profit-making booze division.  I guess that’s why really organized crime is now called government.

Until government stops partnering with criminals in a social death dance – one that employs three lawyers per case and has left 22% of Americans scarred with criminal records – Texas is just a symptom of more to come.  Crime of the Waco sort is economic at its core.

Failure isn’t an option in the War on Drugs.  It’s a certainty.

Apparently, such clear-headed thinking is not available in Washington where, this morning, the Obamanizers will roll out more money to arm cops and will spend some of your hard-earned tax dollars on building “trust” with local communities.

As usual, government is solving the wrong problem… instead of “putting down crime” anyone with half a brain would ask “What’s putting it up?”  (Money)  “So how do we fix that?”

Want to fix burglary?  Mandatory 6-month jail time for people who buy stolen goods.  Take the economics off the table and you solve “crime.”.

Oh, wait…no MRAPS in peaceful living, though, is there?

Markets And Such

Consumer Prices will be released on the 22nd – Friday – this month.  Not much excitement until there.  Keep NoDoz at the ready.

Market is looking to open slightly down, which is normal after a blow-off options week.

‘Bout Drought

We now have MORE than twice of much rain as Seattle, here in the East Texas Outback.  Almost 29-inches while Seattle downtown is reporting 13 and change.

Moreover, Abilene, Texas, which was dusting off 3-inches last year is over 9-inches this year.

And the drought monitor looks like we are in for a horrific fire season in the woods of the West.

Is there good news for California?  Yes.  Reader Mark M spied an article about a breakthrough desalinization technique that has been developed  at MIT.

Of course that begs the question, can it scale in time to prevent the movement of some millions of people out of Droughtifornia?  You saw where this weekend, Washington State officially entered drought, as well

And while Lake Mead is trying to disappear, much to the worry of Las Vegans (check if that’s a word for me, would’ja?) there’s also a report of Lake Powell going Houdini on us..

Meantime, there’s so much rain here that our septic system is sluggish…

Reminds me of the joke from B-school:  You know what a statistician is?  That’s a person who can freeze his left foot in a block of ice and stick the other foot in a fire.  Then look you dead in the eye and say (wait for it…_)  “On average, I’m comfortable.”

I should count my blessings, I suppose,  but we’re just a little too “flush” with rain, thank you.  Walking in the yard, we sink in an inch or two…things are that soggy here.

“Let He Who Casts the First Stone…”

I just love it when John Kerry starts to criticize the leadership of North Korea.  And what do we do about it?  Why saber rattle and threaten new sanctions back, of course!

Just looking at things from up here in the cheap seats, sending Dennis Rodman to NK accomplished what, exactly?

It’s OK…the NK’s criticized Ferguson and Baltimore if I’m not mistaken…It’s no longer statesmanship.  It’s blame marketing.

Middle Easting

From our news analyst fellow up in Winnipeg:

Dear Mr. Ure,

France24 is reported that training has commenced for American-paid rebel Jaysh al-Islam mercenaries in the fight against ISIS in the Syrian theater. One could rhetorically wonder why the Saudis are not paying the entire freight for a Sunni group not only spawned by one of their descendants, but with linkages to an al-Qaeda derivative al-Nusra Front. So far this storyline isn’t quite lining up with the fine efforts of German mercenaries who turned back the Islamic incursion of Western Europe at Vienna in the sixteenth century.

Further to this discussion of the public announcement of American training commencement for the Jaish al-Islam rebel group, Hasan Hasan a journalist in Abu Dhabi issued a one sentence tweet this past weekend. He noted that the cleric Abu Mohammed al-Maqdisi was “subtweeting” the rebel group.  It looks like the alleged “dangerous and influential jihadi theorist’s” managers only started him up on Twitter two weeks ago. One trusts all is going to plan, Inshalah?

And then we note Shi’ite forces are moving to take back an Iraqi city taken earlier by ISIS.

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Coping: With an Oily Bottom & Forward Dimly

We have really enjoyed it – this long running decline of oil prices.  It has been something of a marvel.

For one thing, it has made travel relatively affordable this year.  And, while there is still the prospect of another wave down, it shouldn’t happen until we get one more screaming blow-off top in the market.

The future, at least to economics fans, is often foretold in Elliot Waves.  R.N. Elliott laid this all out in a deceptively simple book years ago titled The Wave Principle.

The basic idea is that big trends tend to come in five moves.  There a primary move (in oil’s case down), then a bounce, then a bigger down than the first one, a fourth wave bounce, and finally we settle in at the low.

My best guess is that we are seeing the end of wave 3 down and we might see a fourth wave rally of a couple of years before the fifth wave bottom shows itself.  And that, of course, will come with the Second Depression’s economic low-spot (armpit) somewhere along about 2019-2020.

Before you read a technical note from Oilman2, realize that we sometimes talk in short-hand.  I know that the oil data he refers to is the Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) which is the state agency that manages the oil property rights and  production facilities and dirty little details of oil including plug & abandon policies and what –not.

People who consider themselves shade tree “oil experts” who haven’t spent vast time on the Texas Railroad Commission site looking at the data are pretty much kidding themselves.

So much for my part…now the note from Oilman2 after I remind you the EIA is the Energy Information Administration…

Latest EIA data shows decline of 86kb/day in all US shale plays. The EIA data lags the RRC data significantly, as it is interpolated, whereas the RRC data is compiled and revised. RRC data has been showing even more decline in Texas fields. than the traditional lower estimates they are known for.

This was out late last week:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-10/saudi-chevron-said-to-shut-down-wafra-oil-fields-output-monday

The Neutral Zone is a cooperative effort between Saudi and Kuwait – the buffer zone for leasing they share between them offshore. The Chevron project is a tertiary recovery steamflood operation, and the ceasing of expat work permits for Wafra a year back indicates something more than ‘maintenance’. Khafji, according to my sources, had casing leakage issues on several wells in addition to sanding up in many more – both would require extensive workover ops to return to normal. My guess is a tiff between Chevron and KOC, but that is a guess.

If the rig declines flatline (several operators in OK are starting back to drilling, but not at breakneck pace) for another few weeks, shale oil production continues to decline and we do not see gaining production in Saudi, the bottom may be in.

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A Pretty Good "Get Rich" Scheme

There are only two things the average American wants, these days:  To be “famous” and to “get rich.”

The problem with famous, of course, is that it doesn’t pay the bills.  And the benefit of “rich” is that you can buy fame – if you have enough money.

So this morning I lay out a pretty good “get rich” scheme. 

No, it’s not fast, but is has a very good chance of working – since most people don’t even bother trying to get rich; most sit around waiting for it to happen.  Then they get disappointed when it doesn’t.  Go figure.

So we’re off to the realities of “getting rich” after some coffee and a few significant headlines.

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Long Waves for Kids: Fall 1927

I don’t often give much space on the UrbanSurvival site to our Peoplenomics™ work on markets.  That’s reserved for people who support this site with a $40/annual subscription.

But I want to break with tradition this morning to put into perspective where we COULD be in the greater scheme of things.

The chart above shows what would happen if we line up the market break in 1921 with the market break low of 2009 following the Housing bubble collapse.

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE but as you can see, there is a case to be made for a rally into this fall, a pullback this fall, and then a stunning rally in 2016 before we collapse in a heap.

What would those dates be? 

Well, the week we are in would correspond to November 3, 1927.

The absolute top (although it’s hard to imagine such a perfect fit actually happening) would come ideally around March of 2017.

Then we would have two (back to back) 76 week periods of horrific decline.

But between  now and that first low mid August of 2018, we could see a lot of interesting things happen.

For example, I would expect gold to make a move to the 2,500 area and silver could hit $80, or more.

But the problem ahead would be remaining fleet-footed.

People like to imagine the market falling apart any day now.  And why not?  It sells newspapers and builds the web site traffic for the genuine doom porn types.

While I like catastrophism as much as the next guy (I made money in 1987, lol) the fact of the matter is there’s usually some logical basis for my outlooks, not just an urge to scare people in the me-too sort of way.

The Internet is a hugely circular place.  And that’s why I don’t spend a lot time trying to keep up too much with the doom porn types.  But I won’t bullsh*t you:  I’m  not too worried for American until after we get to the 2016 elections.

I don’t know if it will be due to the outcome of the elections, something about inauguration, or some financial calamity that will slap us in the face.  But between  now and then, short of the expected pullback to S&P 1,740 along the way, maybe this fall if we don’t get it in the June-July period, we know we’re going to his the biggest decline ever.

We just don’t know how all the fiddling with backdoor bailouts and Fed policy will play out this time around.  We could go any time, sure.

In fact, the me-too media has said damn little about the ongoing and critical collapse of the velocity of money.  Check out the chart to the right.

Velocity has just imploded to the lowest level in Ure lifetime.

So, let’s talk about Velocity for a moment.

Velocity is like annual inventory turns.  In accounting, it’s easy to think of money as having turnover.

If you lend someone $10-bucks, then spend it, and repay you, that generates $10 worth of local economic activity.  When you lend it out twice in a year (and get repaid twice) you get $20 worth of economic activity.

There was actually a time in the country when rolling over money happened twice a year…but that was during the go-go internet bubble lead-in.

What has happened now is that the turnover in money is down (as of the end of April – this is only published by the Fed quarterly as a chart) to only 1.5 turnovers per year.

Eventually, the Fed gets us into a terrible spot where they can’t print enough money to keep things afloat and they simply give up.  That’s when gold and silver confiscations have happened in the past because government – facing falling tax revenue, but on the hook for tons of social commitments – can’t do anything except confiscate everything that is not nailed down.

The good news – such as it is – is that velocity could pick up one more time.  But currency collapse it out there down the road as an  obstacle to peaceful future.

The real crap isn’t likely to be fully appreciated until late 2017/2018.  But then, however, the
“insolvable” problems will be really in our faces:

  • The migration from the California/Southwest drought
  • The extreme lack of jobs from…
    • Economic displacement from robotics and business process software and…
    • Lack of R&D spending
    • Collapsed disposable personal income from mounting government mandated spending on various insurances (car, health, etc)
    • And let’s not leave out self-driving cars and…
    • Virtualization of life and microhomes plus
    • The consumption impacts of a declining birth rate, LBGT spending changes and the impacts of environmentalism.
  • Should I mention the time lag between appeasement and war in the Middle East?
  • This last point is sort of savory: The Wikipedia entry on Neville Chamberlain puts appeasement a couple of years ahead of open warfare with Germany…so by then any appeasement of Iran should result in war in that part of the world.

    There, feeling better now?

    Empire State Manufacturing Report

    It’s just out.  A highlight?

    The headline general business conditions
    index climbed four points to 3.1. The
    new orders index rose ten points to
    3.9, and the shipments index was
    little changed at 14.9. Labor market
    indicators pointed to a small increase in
    employment levels but a slight decline
    in the average workweek. The prices
    paid index fell ten points to 9.4, its
    lowest level in nearly three years, and
    the prices received index edged down
    to 1.0, indicating that selling prices
    were flat. The index for future general
    business conditions fell noticeably,
    reflecting a positive but less favorable
    outlook than in April.

    The rest of the report is over here.  The only question is how close to Ure’s Discontinuity are we, the point where declining interest rates quite suddenly drop to negative numbers and stock and bond prices collapse…

    War Notes from “Warhammer”

    Yeah…you hate him…but his track record is very good at looking ahead…

    “The Saudi’s just threw a turd in the Camp Davis swimming pool:

    <http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-vows-to-set-off-new-middle-east-arms-race-and-match-irans-nuclear-capability-10250789.html>

    Whether diplomatic posturing or downright steely-eyed threatening, in reality the Sunni Saudi sultans are simply telling it like it is. One need not look further than the civil war festering just south of Saudi Arabia’s border in Yemen. The Shiite Iranian mullahs are fueling the fires of war by arming and otherwise advising and supplying the Yemeni Houthi opposition while a Sunni coalition, led by the Saudis and Egypt, provide armed support to the self-exiled ruling regime’s leadership.

    Imagine throwing a few nuclear fireworks into this already messy mix! I’d put even money on there being more than a few black glass parking lots popping up in cities such as Tehran and Riyadh. We could have our very own modern-day Middle Eastern accounting of the ‘legends’ put forth in the ancient Indian Mahabharata texts.

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    Coping: Cartesians within Dreams

    If dreams have predictive content,  we might soon be reading about a shopping center or mall attack in coming weeks/months.

    Or – and this is really the more likely – last night’s dream was merely a collection of thought stubs.

    First, though, let me tell you about the dream itself.

    The dream was from the viewpoint of what seemed to be a male figure who had just met (or was looking for) a loved one/female figure who was a relatively new hire in a bank or store customer service department in a shopping area.

    The bank or financial/customer service place where she (name: Christine) worked was somewhere to the right and perhaps down from the bakery that was the focus of the dream.

    The male figure in the dream had just dropped by where this Christine works and she was getting used to life in retail – which for her was seven days a week.  She was to get two days off during the week (either Tuesday/Wednesday, or Wednesday/Thursday).  But, when the male figure in the dream showed up, it was somewhere around lunchtime.  Maybe 11 AM or even 10:30 AM, or so.

    Since this Christine was in a meeting/training, the viewpoint in the dream decided to have lunch.  He decided to eat at a basement / half flight down kind of bakery.

    So he goes into this basement or ground-level bakery, but on the way down (stairs or behind concrete half-wall)) to it, he has an alarm bell going off in his head.  Could the building he was entering be the site of a terrorism attack/explosion in a few hours or near future?

    There was something that came through as a kind of “knowing” in the dream – and this is the part worth mentioning – that voce or knowing part said it was OK because the damage from the upcoming explosion in the northwest part of the building would not do significant damage this far away; perhaps only a few beams/pieces of ceiling,  but it would be survivable.

    He (the dreamer) then looks around.  It’s early, so not all the fresh bread is out, but he does see a couple of loaves of a pale white bread that looks fresh…and (some weirdness now) – boxes and boxes of Velveeta or other cheese.  Apparently this half – flight down bakery/shop is famous for bread and cheese.

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    Ure Basic Economics: The “Gold Product”

    Long – but useful ramble here:  One of the hangovers from being #2 at a regional jet air carrier in the Caribbean is a fine sense of Standard Accounting Ratios.

    When an airline figures it needs a 73% passenger load factor to break-even, it’s not blowing smoke…it’s an accounting calculation.  It’s something folks in airline admin, like me, model and tweak and press and connive in order to get all the costs as low as possible and thus, have the best chance of making money.

    It’s the art of the ratio.  If you have 100-seats, then if 73 of them don’t have fare-paying butts in then, the airline will lose money on that flight. On the other hand, if there are 100 people in 100 seats, the odds of making money goes up…but again, there are other ratios that need to be considered.

    Take your car..

    Say you have a $500 payment on it.

    Say you drive 100 miles a month.  That would mean you are paying $5 per mile just to drive the car…and some places cabs can be that cheap….and public transportation sure as hell is. 

    You get ahead (or behind) in life working these things out.  And then living “by the numbers.”

    When you drive 1,0000 miles a month, then your car cost per mile drops to 50-cents…and so forth.  That’s the magic of utilization – which is the amount of use out of something you get for the fixed part of ownership.

    Then, there’s the whole matter of variable costs. 

    Some of the things in your car depend on how much you drive it.  A fine example is gasoline.  If you get x miles per gallon and drive y miles, you can figure out one of your variable costs.

    People don’t put as much attention to the fixed cost side of things…they seem to worry more about the variable costs.

    “What in the world could this have to do with the cost of Gold?”

    Let me explain:  Keeping a little bit of what meager income we make is a matter of looking at ratios and understanding dynamics of money.

    I’m sure this morning, you’ll find lots of finance sites likely to focus on the pop in gold the past couple of days and proclaim that a huge breakout is here.  Not that they would be wrong, but let me introduce you to the dollar/gold ratio.  Because being right, but for the wrong reason can lead to disastrous decision-making.

    The basic idea is this:  If a dollar is worth a Euro, then it ought to take about 1,066  of them to buy an ounce of gold. 

    Referring to the chart at the top of this page,  please note that gold, indeed is up again this morning – or at least it was at press time.

    But at the same time, the “value of the dollar” is dropping.  It was down to 0.875 Euro this morning,

    So here is the magic of ratios: 

    Price of gold (say $1,218.70) times the dollar to Euro exchange rate (.875) equals a fully priced ounce of gold at about €1,066.3625.

    And what would the price of gold pencil to if the dollar rose to 0.94 Euro?  Simple:  $1,134.

    The gold/Euro ratio is not fixed, and sure, it will drift over time.  But when you’re playing in a multi-currency world, pah-leese don’t tell me a huge bull market is gold is happening – yet.  The huge bull markets are when major changes in the underlying ratios take place, not when currency has cut loose its moorings temporarily, as it has recently.

    My point (and this is why thinking in ratios is so damn important) is to look for the underlying ratio when you are trying to understand anything financial.

    Yes, you can make money on gold options and yes, the price of gold is going up…but a study of RATIOS reveals that the driver isn’t everyone waking up and running out and buying six Krugerrands before breakfast.  This is a currency swing.

    I will repeat what I was screaming at you a month, or so, back when I told you to watch the Fed which is printing up M1 and M2 like CRAZY to keep the economy pretending to recover:  The forex market is starting to devalue the dollar a bit…and as they do (like printing M1 at a 10.6% annualized rate won’t have an impact?_) the dollar may fall more relative to the Euro.

    That will press gold us, begin some internal inflation in the US and offset the big bad ugly word that no one in Washington can cope with: deflation.

    Why do you think I was headlining all that stuff about the Fed H.6 currency stocks report a while back?  Do I have to draw you pictures?

    Where could it all go?  Well, say the US continues to devalue relative to the Euro.  Say we get down to 0.78.  Where might gold go – strictly on a currency move – in this instance?   Are least to $1,366 or thereabouts.

    Of course, were this to happen, the underlying ratio would change.  There’s a pile-on effect that is not insignificant. 

    In fact, when you study ratios long enough, a particular neuron in your brain will short out and you will see that the ratios aren’t nailed to the floor and appear as a nonlinear curve over time.  And when the curve gets to a certain spot, the related (nonlinear) pile-on of lemmings begins and prices go off the charts to the stratosphere and becomes self-reinforcing.

    Yes, and we can get rich in these instances.

    The bottom line is what?

    I’m skeptical of this being a major bull market in gold just yet.  We need to see gold up into the $1,300+ range and wait for some pile-on effect to appear to become a real ratio-pusher.

    But the ratio (which is kind of rocking chair curve) will be covered in more detail in an upcoming Peoplenomics® report.  But the key thing is to keep an eye on the general business outlook and currencies.

    If people really were buying Krugerrands and Maples for breakfast, the currency shift could be discounted away.  But that’s not what’s going on here on this planet.  At least not yet.

    While the move over $1,200 is constructive, hold to decaf while we see how bad deflation really is, and how much of the Fed money printing really chases goods and services.  The truth will be revealed in the ^TNX 10-year note rates and the 90-day Euro futures.

    If the ^TNX doesn’t drop down next week after options expiration tomorrow, I will be surprised.

    This is, don’t forget  (index) options expiration day and traders love to drive markets up to scalp a few bucks.  Trading may be fine for some, but it’s too much work for old men  like me.

    Stocks should put on 100-points, or more today.  But it’s not because we recovered from our economic woes overnight.  It’s because with the currency shift, it now takes a few more (watered down value) dollars to buy the same intrinsic value represented by the underlying companies.

    I’ve found reducing financial thinking as much as possible to ratios has helped me make average to slightly better financial decisions.  You might consider giving it a try.  A few minutes with a calculator can change your relationships dramatically.  Especially the one with your bank.

    Longwave economics is not about hit-and-run trading.  It’s about these larger ratios over time that anyone can teach themselves to observe and invest by.

    More Dot-Connecting

    Madison Avenue Mike, when he’s not being a demigod of NYC fashion, is one of the more cogent news tipsters around here.

    His “picks” this morning include the report that the Fed really has secret bailout plans and capabilities that dwarf those powers of mortal finance….

    And he spied parent banking firms are likely to plead guilty in some FX-schemes.  Of course, the caught-red-handed bankster class ain’t commenting – but you’ve been around our coffee-klatch news operation here long enough to know what “No comments” means, right?

    Blah, Black, Blah…Producer Prices

    Here, read this press release:

    The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.4 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.2 percent in March and decreased 0.5 percent in February. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand declined 1.3 percent for the 12 months ended in April. (See table A.) In April, more than 70 percent of the decrease in final demand prices can be attributed to a 0.7- percent decline in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services edged down 0.1 percent. Within intermediate demand, prices for processed goods fell 1.1 percent, the index for unprocessed goods moved up 0.9 percent, and prices for services advanced 0.5 percent. (See tables B and C.) Final Demand Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods moved down 0.7 percent in April following a 0.3-percent rise in March. Leading the broad-based decline, prices for final demand energy fell 2.9 percent.

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