I like wagering. I go to casinos and play penny slots…and I usually walk out even or ahead. (That’s before counting the value of free drinks, too.)
The thing about casinos is not the odds so much as the timing. You can get into a bad trade, for example, but by deftly timing your exit when a momentary excursion from statistical probability wanders by, you can come out smelling like a rose.
So here’s the bet: If Trump looks like a real possibility at the polls and if the federal “help” doesn’t look like it will have the proper result, the Obama administration will spin up a regional war with Russia.
We will go into the mechanics of this in greater detail for our Peoplenomics.com readers this weekend, but the headlines this morning are worrisome, indeed.
For one, we just experienced the big Hack Attack that we mentioned in a previous Peoplenomics report as a logical prelude to a flash war.
Then the Russians came through the English Channel and now have a fleet headed toward the Syrian warm water port of Tartus.
Globalists are calling a major build-up”
And the other side is responding:
· Russians conduct nuclear-bomb survival drills as Cold War heats up
· “Russia reportedly tests nuclear-capable hypersonic glider warhead.”
One has to pay attention when a source like Military.com refers to what’s happening as the “Final Collapse of Obama’s Syrian Policy” – which I’ve been telling you for months was crafted by a Nasty Nest of Neocons who’ve been wagging American foreign policy Since Clinton 1 days at the State Department.
This is the same cast of clowns who brought you the Iran war based on WMD claims in faked documents, they also blew sup Libya in the process, and botched relations with Egypt in their mad “Regime Change” efforts.
In fact, thanks to the neocon’s wrong-headed policies, we see where American involvement has facilitated a 43 percent increase in the Afghan warlord’s opiate output.
EBM – Lesson at Hand
An article of faith around here is EBM – Everything is a Business Model.
If you have read that oh, so savory Report from Iron Mountain (on the Accessibility and Desirability of Peace) you would have a clearer perspective on this global chess game.
The short version would go something like this, I figure:
1.Capitalism is bloody-genius effective.
2.It leads to massive growth.
3.Then it shades into commoditization.
4.Then it automates and people become superfluous.
5.This causes massive periodic depressions.
6.Something is needed to “kill people and break things” in large enough measure to restart the system again and provide new routes to growth.
7.Alternative to War for this purpose include:
i. Massive National Healthcare – which if you’ll notice is blowing up.
b. Massive public works, blocked my a bloated national debt.
c. And alien invasion.
d. Massive pandemic diseases.
8. When all of these are more, or less, ruled out, then the only way to keep the business model going is War.
9. Recent news over the past few years have seen minor runs at Pandemics (Ebola and now Zika), Aliens (with the signals from space discoveries), National Debt is already dangerously high and as rates rise, that will pressure-point finance, and like I said about Hillarycare/Obamacare.
10. Open the envelope now and tell me what wins?
Which is why a week ago, I laid out a scenario for an Election-Day Seismic War. I don’t usually offer peeks into actual Peoplenomics articles, but the prospects for an Election-Day Seismic War continue drifting up from zero.
From the section of the report “Order of Battle” we see an outline of how things could play out:
1. Three days before the election a large cyber war breaks out. Russia goes public first accusing the U.S. of moves against it, already promised by USVP Joe Biden.
2. Two days before election Satus-6 /Kanyon autonomous torpedoes are deployed and armed on undersea fault lines.
3. Russian military seizes the Mistral class carriers from Egypt and heads for Tartus in Syria. Plans to use them in place there.
4. Election Day evening: Evening, West Coast time: Simultaneous nukes in Kamchatka/Siberia are exploded deep underground. Massive SoCal quake and Pacific Northwest earthquakes are triggered. 9.2 in the Northwest, 8.7 in southern California.
5. Hours later: An unexpected bonus: In the early morning of election day, the New Madrid fault slips causing an 8.1 earthquake in the U.S. mid-west.
6.2 AM Eastern Election Day: Cumbre Vieja is blown by the nuclear packaged delivered by Blackjack bombers in previous weeks.
7. Hours later, multiple nuclear pumping explosions add to the tsunami sweeping West.
8.Polls are just opening when the tsunami arrives. Millions are killed. Major coastal cities destroyed.
9. Although president Obama argues that the election should be set aside, the surviving red states elect Donald Trump whose experience in urban redevelopment will be severely taxed.
10. Democrats go to court and demand another election.
About here, I could tell you what a great product Peoplenomics reports are. The problem is, with thinking like this showing up, you might not sleep as well after subscribing.
The Veneer of Civilization is mighty thin. As many times as we’ve gone to war as a species, we are still no good at predicting just when the fabric of peace will rip. Or, what that tiniest of miscalculations is that throws us into the blast trenches. But yeah, we will cover more this weekend as data continues to come in.
Election Follies, Redux
“YouTube Bans ‘Clinton’s Black Son” claims a report over here.
We anticipate the film maker who did the 9-minute piece will be blocked from his FB page shortly, since politics is not about owning high moral ground anymore.
It’s about owning high media ground.
Trump Versus the GOP/Corporatists
We have long cast one-time republicans, such as House Speaker Paul Ryan as the titular head of the “Onama Wing of the GOP” for laying down on the budget, rolling over on Trade deals, and all the rest.
As I told you years ago, it’s time to relight the American Whig Party whose slogan was simply “Peace and Prosperity.” Few people are even aware the Party existed here, but you’ll find it in Wikipedia:
“In particular, the Whigs supported the supremacy of Congress over the Presidency and favored a program of modernization, banking and economic protectionism to stimulate manufacturing. It appealed to entrepreneurs and planters, but had little appeal to farmers or unskilled workers. It included many active Protestants, and voiced a moralistic opposition to the Jacksonian Indian removal policies. Party founders chose the “Whig” name to echo the American Whigs of 1776, who fought for independence. “Whig” meant opposing tyranny.[3] Historian Frank Towers has specified a deep ideological divide:
‘Democrats stood for the ‘sovereignty of the people’ as expressed in popular demonstrations, constitutional conventions, and majority rule as a general principle of governing, whereas Whigs advocated the rule of law, written and unchanging constitutions, and protections for minority interests against majority tyranny.[4]”
Amen and where do I sign up.
Political Sign from Universe
I don’t think anyone else will mention this, but Daylight Time ends just three days before the election, on Sunday November 6th.
It gives new meaning to “fall back” doesn’t it?
Yes, the National Debt is Real
A couple of readers asked me to comment on a report that showed up over here under the title “The National Debt: Why Fret Over Something That Doesn’t Exist?”
Say what? Are you kidding me?
The argument is offered that goes along the lines of “Money is made up, therefore then National Debt doesn’t really exist.”
This is the stuff of economic Luddites.
Is the National Debt real? Could it just be “renounced” and everything would be hunky-dory?
Absolutely NOT.
Anyone who thinks this way needs to read a few books.
The critical missing piece: When thinking about Debt don’t overlook it its twin brother – SAVINGS.
I watch the National Debt closely because we are on Social Security and a huge portion of National Debt is comprised of (admittedly paper-based) obligations to pay government bills including Social Security payments.
When the U.S.A. needs to borrow money to meet government payrolls, it will sell bonds. Again, denominated in those “made-up” dollars. The author misses the point that without that National Debt, there would be no federal paychecks. No Social Security, etc. because we run at a deficit…the spending over runs.
Screw the bondholder who own the national debt? World falls apart: No military, no borders (arguably we have a head start there), no CDC, no higher education funds to states, no mass transit, no federal education grants, school lunches and on and on.
When someone tells you “There is no National Debt,” ask ifx they want to screw the holders of that debt. If so, that wipes out balance sheets of savers and investors. Kiss off your pension fund. Grays go hungry with no Social Security.
Serial collapse happens when people don’t understand the problem.
Remember next time you read an extreme over-simplification like this that for every dollar of Debt there is a dollar of Savings somewhere. And don’t blame the bondholders. Blame the idiots on the on Capitol Hill who can’t manage within the national income. Just like “America, the people” run on credit, so does the US government.
To say that the National Debt is fictional is the same as arguing your home mortgage isn’t real either, since it too is paper.
Due process, foreclosure, sheriffs, and a whole system of litigation will prove you wrong. It’s a nice notion, but most delusions are. Toss it in the Free Lunch file.
People who don’t remember that in the real world there is equality between debt and savings have missed a critical point in their education.
The good news? When the government doesn’t meet its obligations to pay, you’ll know where to direct the crowd with the pitchforks.
Yes, the National Debt is real and people like me (and you through a pension or saving plan) lend our savings through bond purchases to the government. It’s not a bad thing: Governement has a 250-year history of making good on financial promises.
Why would someone write this? Maybe it’s the political season – Free Lunch is running wild right not.
Or mybe the writer wants to screw bond purchasers, and trash inter-agency debt like Social Security paper.
Repeat after me: There is NO FREE LUNCH.
Sheesh.
Back to Our Greedy Capitalist Roots
Sorry to be so long-winded this morning, but we do focus on making money around here.
Just out is the Durable Goods Report. Hot off the press release:
“ New orders for manufactured durable goods in September decreased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $227.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following two consecutive monthly increases, followed a 0.3 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.7 percent.
Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $0.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $77.5 billion.
Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up three of the last four months, increased $2.0 billion or 0.8 percent to $234.5 billion. This followed a virtually unchanged August decrease.
Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in September, down four consecutive months, decreased $3.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $1,119.3 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent August decrease.
Inventories
Inventories of manufactured durable goods in September, up three consecutive months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.1 percent to $384.0 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent August increase.”
Dow futures were up 40 and no, other than Big Money, I have no idea why the market rallied at mid session Wednesday.
Much shorter columns tomorrow, I promise.
How about for starters the Secretary of the Treasury just announces we are defaulting on all debt owned by the “For Profit” Federal Reserve Bank and let them go pound salt.
This is the same cast of clowns who brought you the Iraq war based on WMD claims in faked documents
I know you meant to say Iraq George. Iran is still in the crosshairs at some point. Anyone interested in how we got where we are can Google “PNAC” amd begin to follow all the chain of events that followed. 25 from the nasty nest signed the document and ten of them ended up in the GWB administration. The likes of Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz and Cheney. The Office of Special Plans “OSP” intentionally fed misleading intel to the easily duped Bush and followers which led to WMD. Our fear based rationale justified striking out at anyone remotely threatening America. I don’t think we are through yet, watch what NATO supreme commander Wesley Clark had to say about “Seven Countries” and connect the dots. These countries aren’t threatening us but are challenging some of our closest (influential) allies from dominating the region.
People are nuts. All my deferred compensation will be lost if we do a reset. That’s why I bought the farm. Between the farm, my pension, deferred comp and social security. I hope to survive what’s about to come upon us no matter who becomes president. The rave.
Seriously if you think about it what other choices do you have other than a reset if you start charging interest to gain back what you’ve already reprinted your Going to go down the rabbit hole if you keep printing you go down the rabbit hole as well the only option that’s left is just to start over go bankrupt on the dollar bill rewrite everything from the bottom up. Where we end up like Greece Argentina and other choice countries around the world you know the ones where they’re diving into garbage piles to find food. Women are selling their bodies for a can of soup or a sandwich
That’s why my prediction Of war in the springtime early sum.er. the new Administration doesn’t really have an accurate view of what’s actually happening with the economy with the United States it’s a trap he gets into office the first he thinks war is money we get the war machine going with Someone and it will increase industry and everything else. WhT everybody’s forgotten is that we’ve Outsource iur industry we are now assemblers and consumers so a war wouldn’t start anything the last time I read anything about industry in retooling for industry would be five years minimum. we pretty much let the greedy ones destroy our country.of course that’s only my opinion
I was pretty much neutral about the Trump/Clinton race – both ‘sides’ being filled with questionable people – until the Trump side started mocking the so-called health problems of Clinton – thus enforcing how sleazy the ‘professionals’ he hired were. This made me wonder exactly how fit in turn Trump was – then came the fubar moments about his treatment of women . . . as someone who has experienced unwanted advances at work decades ago – I complained then and was told that that was ‘just’ how the man behaved . . . I’d rather have a professional politician for president than an egotist who thinks he is a businessman.
You need to stop listening to the Lamestream media!
Have you read any of the Wikileaks emails come on man get with the program
No, DT is the person that any rational human being should be very worried about . . .
So, you’d rather vote for nuclear war?
The numerous lawsuits (Trump University, employees of Trump, customers of Trump, racial housing discrimination), childish (he’ll only question election results if he loses) and bullying behavior (he will jail Clinton) plus his offensive pride in not paying any taxes has had a DEFINITE influence on my vote decision.
Yet there are a multitude of fools who believe that he will restore millions of manufacturing jobs that mostly went to China. Tariffs will only ignite hostilities, and most likely motivate China to befriend Russia, not the U.S.
Mrs Clinton is a professional liar. This is nowhere more obvious than after listening to a Trump speech unedited and then to hear her summary of it. The focus on her health(and lack thereof) is very important as few people have the stamina to deal with the proper role of being president. She obviously does not, and the dems are counting on getting her into office just long enough that Kaine can take over. She’s an obvious criminal, and other than the AG refusing to indict, would be incarcerated already. The number and severity of her obvious and enumerated crimes should keep her jailed for life.
Considering both Clinton’s known sexual adventures, I fail to see how a few of Trump’s ancient sexual comments are relevant at all. The role of president is to administer a country and keep us wealthy, autonomous and peaceful. Any sexual dalliances are really quite inconsequential in that frame.
I bow out to you, Sir George. You are THE Doomsday Sayer of all time. I never could come up with what you posted today. If the nukes don’t microwave me, then my prepping will come in handy. And my area of NE Texas sure isn’t on their list to hit.
Which is where the meek live to inherit the…
Not sure about the old Whig Party George which was the old conservative party where you had to own property to vote or have a $1,000 dollars to your name that way the elite could run things as thy do today, the 1% where the working class received only what they thought they should receive which was barely enough to survive.!!!
I had not watched “Wag the Dog” since it was released in 1994. So we ordered it from Netflix and watched it last night. Wow. It’s about covert ways to influence press coverage during an election campaign, provoking a phony war to distract headlines regarding sexual indiscretions of a candidate. Doesn’t seem to be as much of a comedy as it seemed before. Brilliant, but depressing.
JMJ – I won’t sleep after this one George.
no doubt, it really does seem to be getting real, hopefully just a nightmare though
I am going to take my head out of from under the covers just long enough to say nothing’s going to happen so I’ll stick him back under the covers again snore snore snore oh,? Did I forget to mention that there will not be any election this year probably next year but not this year wow I hate III love it when I’m wrong I get to hide my head back under the cover my free lunch comes from planting a seed a day 1C today will feed you plus it gives you a reason to get up and out from underneath the covers got a plan that see you everyday some people have to work all day and all the night and when they come home they don’t even have enough to buy a seed to plant pretty bad huh now what did I do with that zeolite??
Hi everybody how y’all doing you’re good people from Urban survival.com ya’ll must be doing something right y’all are getting together and there’s not too many conflicts so y’all have a generality going there that where you think you know what might be and that’s good so here we go with section 2
What me worry? Things will be great, buy one of these before its gone!
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/want-to-buy-a-gold-covered-private-jet-this-catalog-is-for-you/?
Conspicous Consumption?
Unrelated topic , I was just thinking could a grid tied solar system be used as a daytime household generator during a grid down period. Obviously no power would be generated at night but I would think for a few hours during daylight one could use the power generated. Just an idle mind .
Yep – that’s the whole plan here. But it needs to be an inverter-charger with a battery bank. Then you have power at night too. Put grid tie (not interactive and no b atteries) are useless in grid down since they talk to the grid in order to power up
If you know what you’re doing, you can use a small battery bank as a stabilizer after pulling the grid tie. Then a few jumpers or selectors on the inverter/charger and you can have juice. Of course, you HAVE TO BE SURE that the grid tie is removed before you do this.
George said,”…“Money is made up, therefore then National Debt doesn’t really exist.”
This is the stuff of economic Luddites…”
While not exactly correct these guys have a point. You must look at the fundamental basis for our money supply. Our money supply system is stupid. A child can see it’s stupid. All money is created as debt so to pay off the interest you have to have more money…created with more debt. Simple arithmetic will show you that the interest portion will grow to unsustainable levels as the debt compounds. Maybe this is the reason we are suffering so. Mass interest and debt accumulation. The people in control of the FED and other central bank owners are allowed to create any amount of currency while sticking us with the debt. Nice racket if you can get it. Since money is based on debt if we pay off all the debt…we would have NO MONEY!
There’s another way of thinking about this. If all the goods and services in the economy were backed or shadowed by an equivalent amount of currency we would have a situation were there would be debt but it would be owed to no one in particular. The cash would be a direct substitute for goods and services. Benjamin Franklin wrote about the currency in Pennsylvania that worked like this but based on land. It worked very well and provided prosperity for the whole community. Of course when the Bank of England found out about it the King made them stop causing the whole community to crash into a downward spiral. Possibly being one of the reasons for the revolution.
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/publications/economic-education/ben-franklin-and-paper-money-economy.pdf
Since the debt is compounding it can’t be sustained. They’ve already got this figured out. They’re going to Special Drawing Rights SDR’s. There will be a big financial crisis and SDR’s will come in to save the day. It will of course be the same rip off but on a bigger scale. See below. They explain it all.
http://philosophyofmetrics.com/
http://redefininggod.com/
We should go to a money system that’s based on total goods and services. It could be inflationary but not necessarily any more than what we have now. All debt these days (bonds) are essentially monetized or currency anyways. You just borrow money on the value of the bonds. So doing away with bonds would not necessarily cause a cash inflation spiral as the bonds are likely monetized (cash) as it is.
A guy running for President Scott Smith has some good ideas about the debt and taxes. For revenue instead of getting most from income taxes he would get revenue from settlements. Like every time you buy something or deposit a check in the bank, etc. The value of this is it massively raises the tax base so that the amount of each transaction is minuscule. I read, “For Good and Evil: The Impact of Taxes on the Course of Civilization” by Charles Adams a book on taxes and it talked a lot about raising the tax base in order to lower the percentage taken from each transaction and to spread out where revenues came from.
Let’ look at the numbers he quotes.
Payrolls total $15 trillion.
Not much for filling a $4 trillion federal spending.
The base for what he calls payments, (transactions), is 3,600 Trillion. Big difference. So using this big difference he would only take a tax rate of just 1/8 of a percent.
He also would stop charging interest as the money is made and backed by the taxpayers. He would only give banks a service fee. (I don’t agree with this. I think a small interest paid to the Federal Gov. would be helpful providing the majority of it went to the treasury and bypassed the FED and banks.)
He’s got some great ideas on lots of issues. He’ll never get any publicity from the media with his cut out the FED ideas but they’re worth thinking about. My biggest problem is just how, even with such small percentage of tax, he would keep corporations and the 1% from gaming it so they pay none.
Another thing Smith wants to do is pay the debt off. He points out that all the debt pays interest so it gets bigger and bigger. There’s a not so evident twist to the debt. Here it is…as soon as the debt is issued it is financialized. It becomes money. It may be debt but in today’s world you can use this promise to pay to raise cash. Therefore the money supply is already inflated by the debt. Get it? Debt becomes cash through financialization.
He says,”…Coupon stripping would not be inflationary
because it would replace our existing supply of interest bearing
money with non-interest-bearing money…”
When he says coupon stripping he’s talking about the old time bonds. Here’s a picture.
http://www.coxrail.com/images/bond&coups.jpg
Each bond has coupons that when torn off at a certain date become money. He says we pay all the bonds off with non interest bearing CASH now instead of letting the debt inflate further. The bonds have become cash already so it’s not necessarily inflationary to turn them into cash.
Here’s another quote,”…Ironically, we would have inflated the money supply less if we had issued new money to pay for the deficit each year rather than selling Treasury bonds. At least ordinary money does not accrue interest…”
That being the case he says we should pay off all debt within five years.
Here’s a link to his pay off the debt page.
http://www.scottsmith2016.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Pay-Off-the-Debt.pdf
I think he’s somewhat right about turning debt into cash not being inflationary but not 100%. Some debt is parked and if they were forced to accept cash I have no doubt they would buy assets for cash causing some inflation. His point over all I believe is sound. That printing cash is less damaging to the economy than continuously expanding debt. Yes there is a limit to this. The damage is less when you have instant inflation than the delayed case of delayed debt. When you have instant feedback from printing cash you also can see the damage and correct it faster. The debt is hidden as it takes some money out of circulation while NOT extinguishing it. When debt is turned to cash it’s influence can’t be stopped as easy.
http://www.scottsmith2016.com/
So, if the Russians really have a system that can turn a battleship into a floating tin can, as reported last year in an encounter in the Black Sea I believe it was……and Obama is massing all our no longer useful planes and boats at Diego Garcia…..it would appear we could be setting up for a revisit of Pearl Harbor…….should this occur our leaders could blame whoever they want…….media is in their pocket…lets all practice shouting USA and God Bless America…it worked for 911….what a mess!
No what worked for 911 was an inside job. And the MSM that couldn’t ask an investigative question to save their own lives were ALL in with their poker chips. They (the government, MSM, neo-cons, and under the covers puppet masters like George Soros, and other elite) will NOT be able to accomplish that again. The MSM, which has such a low impression of American Citizens haven’t realized that their brain washing has worked in reverse, and our brains have completely been washed FREE of their coating of propaganda, and our eyes and ears are open once again. We have thrown off the innocent yoke of pretend knowledge blaring from their airwaves. They will NEVER reclaim our trust or our brains. It is over for them.
SOME debt obviously needs to be restructured. Anything uncollectable needs to be purged. Student and other such loans need to be structured so as to give disposable income, and the entire obamascare nonsense needs to go. It’s not just a tax, it’s also a massive impediment to getting proper medical services.
“About here, I could tell you what a great product Peoplenomics reports are. The problem is, with thinking like this showing up, you might not sleep as well after subscribing.”
Actually, if I’m still alive after all that (and I live in New Mexico, which is a mystery place to most who think we’re part of Mexico), I’ll be wondering what my little Credit Union savings account is doing since we’ll have no electricity and the Internet will be down as will the ATMs, and why did I sub to something I can’t obtain to read after nearly everything goes kaplooey? However, I expect the weather to be good, with only light, radioactive clouds overhead and hot particles to keep us warm at night.