I like wagering. I go to casinos and play penny slots…and I usually walk out even or ahead. (That’s before counting the value of free drinks, too.)

The thing about casinos is not the odds so much as the timing. You can get into a bad trade, for example, but by deftly timing your exit when a momentary excursion from statistical probability wanders by, you can come out smelling like a rose.

So here’s the bet: If Trump looks like a real possibility at the polls and if the federal “help” doesn’t look like it will have the proper result, the Obama administration will spin up a regional war with Russia.

We will go into the mechanics of this in greater detail for our Peoplenomics.com readers this weekend, but the headlines this morning are worrisome, indeed.

For one, we just experienced the big Hack Attack that we mentioned in a previous Peoplenomics report as a logical prelude to a flash war.

Then the Russians came through the English Channel and now have a fleet headed toward the Syrian warm water port of Tartus.

Globalists are calling a major build-up”

· “Britain sends hundreds of soldiers and tanks to Russian border in biggest military deployment since Cold War.”

And the other side is responding:

· Russians conduct nuclear-bomb survival drills as Cold War heats up

· “Russia reportedly tests nuclear-capable hypersonic glider warhead.”

One has to pay attention when a source like Military.com refers to what’s happening as the “Final Collapse of Obama’s Syrian Policy” – which I’ve been telling you for months was crafted by a Nasty Nest of Neocons who’ve been wagging American foreign policy Since Clinton 1 days at the State Department.

This is the same cast of clowns who brought you the Iran war based on WMD claims in faked documents, they also blew sup Libya in the process, and botched relations with Egypt in their mad “Regime Change” efforts.

In fact, thanks to the neocon’s wrong-headed policies, we see where American involvement has facilitated a 43 percent increase in the Afghan warlord’s opiate output.

EBM – Lesson at Hand

An article of faith around here is EBM – Everything is a Business Model.

If you have read that oh, so savory Report from Iron Mountain (on the Accessibility and Desirability of Peace) you would have a clearer perspective on this global chess game.

The short version would go something like this, I figure:

1.Capitalism is bloody-genius effective.

2.It leads to massive growth.

3.Then it shades into commoditization.

4.Then it automates and people become superfluous.

5.This causes massive periodic depressions.

6.Something is needed to “kill people and break things” in large enough measure to restart the system again and provide new routes to growth.

7.Alternative to War for this purpose include:

i. Massive National Healthcare – which if you’ll notice is blowing up.

b. Massive public works, blocked my a bloated national debt.

c. And alien invasion.

d. Massive pandemic diseases.

8. When all of these are more, or less, ruled out, then the only way to keep the business model going is War.

9. Recent news over the past few years have seen minor runs at Pandemics (Ebola and now Zika), Aliens (with the signals from space discoveries), National Debt is already dangerously high and as rates rise, that will pressure-point finance, and like I said about Hillarycare/Obamacare.

10. Open the envelope now and tell me what wins?

Which is why a week ago, I laid out a scenario for an Election-Day Seismic War. I don’t usually offer peeks into actual Peoplenomics articles, but the prospects for an Election-Day Seismic War continue drifting up from zero.

From the section of the report “Order of Battle” we see an outline of how things could play out:

1. Three days before the election a large cyber war breaks out. Russia goes public first accusing the U.S. of moves against it, already promised by USVP Joe Biden.

2. Two days before election Satus-6 /Kanyon autonomous torpedoes are deployed and armed on undersea fault lines.

3. Russian military seizes the Mistral class carriers from Egypt and heads for Tartus in Syria. Plans to use them in place there.

4. Election Day evening: Evening, West Coast time: Simultaneous nukes in Kamchatka/Siberia are exploded deep underground. Massive SoCal quake and Pacific Northwest earthquakes are triggered. 9.2 in the Northwest, 8.7 in southern California.

5. Hours later: An unexpected bonus: In the early morning of election day, the New Madrid fault slips causing an 8.1 earthquake in the U.S. mid-west.

6.2 AM Eastern Election Day: Cumbre Vieja is blown by the nuclear packaged delivered by Blackjack bombers in previous weeks.

7. Hours later, multiple nuclear pumping explosions add to the tsunami sweeping West.

8.Polls are just opening when the tsunami arrives. Millions are killed. Major coastal cities destroyed.

9. Although president Obama argues that the election should be set aside, the surviving red states elect Donald Trump whose experience in urban redevelopment will be severely taxed.

10. Democrats go to court and demand another election.

About here, I could tell you what a great product Peoplenomics reports are. The problem is, with thinking like this showing up, you might not sleep as well after subscribing.

The Veneer of Civilization is mighty thin. As many times as we’ve gone to war as a species, we are still no good at predicting just when the fabric of peace will rip. Or, what that tiniest of miscalculations is that throws us into the blast trenches. But yeah, we will cover more this weekend as data continues to come in.

Election Follies, Redux

YouTube Bans ‘Clinton’s Black Son” claims a report over here.

We anticipate the film maker who did the 9-minute piece will be blocked from his FB page shortly, since politics is not about owning high moral ground anymore.

It’s about owning high media ground.

Trump Versus the GOP/Corporatists

We have long cast one-time republicans, such as House Speaker Paul Ryan as the titular head of the “Onama Wing of the GOP” for laying down on the budget, rolling over on Trade deals, and all the rest.

Apparently, Donald Trump must feel the same way since he is refusing to refill the crooked coffers of the corporate-influenced GOP.

As I told you years ago, it’s time to relight the American Whig Party whose slogan was simply “Peace and Prosperity.” Few people are even aware the Party existed here, but you’ll find it in Wikipedia:

“In particular, the Whigs supported the supremacy of Congress over the Presidency and favored a program of modernization, banking and economic protectionism to stimulate manufacturing. It appealed to entrepreneurs and planters, but had little appeal to farmers or unskilled workers. It included many active Protestants, and voiced a moralistic opposition to the Jacksonian Indian removal policies. Party founders chose the “Whig” name to echo the American Whigs of 1776, who fought for independence. “Whig” meant opposing tyranny.[3] Historian Frank Towers has specified a deep ideological divide:

‘Democrats stood for the ‘sovereignty of the people’ as expressed in popular demonstrations, constitutional conventions, and majority rule as a general principle of governing, whereas Whigs advocated the rule of law, written and unchanging constitutions, and protections for minority interests against majority tyranny.[4]”

Amen and where do I sign up.

Political Sign from Universe

I don’t think anyone else will mention this, but Daylight Time ends just three days before the election, on Sunday November 6th.

It gives new meaning to “fall back” doesn’t it?

Yes, the National Debt is Real

A couple of readers asked me to comment on a report that showed up over here under the title “The National Debt: Why Fret Over Something That Doesn’t Exist?

Say what? Are you kidding me?

The argument is offered that goes along the lines of “Money is made up, therefore then National Debt doesn’t really exist.”

This is the stuff of economic Luddites.

Is the National Debt real? Could it just be “renounced” and everything would be hunky-dory?

Absolutely NOT.

Anyone who thinks this way needs to read a few books.

The critical missing piece: When thinking about Debt don’t overlook it its twin brother – SAVINGS.

I watch the National Debt closely because we are on Social Security and a huge portion of National Debt is comprised of (admittedly paper-based) obligations to pay government bills including Social Security payments.

When the U.S.A. needs to borrow money to meet government payrolls, it will sell bonds. Again, denominated in those “made-up” dollars. The author misses the point that without that National Debt, there would be no federal paychecks. No Social Security, etc. because we run at a deficit…the spending over runs.

Screw the bondholder who own the national debt? World falls apart: No military, no borders (arguably we have a head start there), no CDC, no higher education funds to states, no mass transit, no federal education grants, school lunches and on and on.

When someone tells you “There is no National Debt,” ask ifx they want to screw the holders of that debt. If so, that wipes out balance sheets of savers and investors. Kiss off your pension fund. Grays go hungry with no Social Security.

Serial collapse happens when people don’t understand the problem.

Remember next time you read an extreme over-simplification like this that for every dollar of Debt there is a dollar of Savings somewhere. And don’t blame the bondholders. Blame the idiots on the on Capitol Hill who can’t manage within the national income. Just like “America, the people” run on credit, so does the US government.

To say that the National Debt is fictional is the same as arguing your home mortgage isn’t real either, since it too is paper.

Due process, foreclosure, sheriffs, and a whole system of litigation will prove you wrong. It’s a nice notion, but most delusions are. Toss it in the Free Lunch file.

People who don’t remember that in the real world there is equality between debt and savings have missed a critical point in their education.

The good news? When the government doesn’t meet its obligations to pay, you’ll know where to direct the crowd with the pitchforks.

Yes, the National Debt is real and people like me (and you through a pension or saving plan) lend our savings through bond purchases to the government. It’s not a bad thing: Governement has a 250-year history of making good on financial promises.

Why would someone write this? Maybe it’s the political season – Free Lunch is running wild right not.

Or mybe the writer wants to screw bond purchasers, and trash inter-agency debt like Social Security paper.

Repeat after me: There is NO FREE LUNCH.

Sheesh.

Back to Our Greedy Capitalist Roots

Sorry to be so long-winded this morning, but we do focus on making money around here.

Just out is the Durable Goods Report. Hot off the press release:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in September decreased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $227.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following two consecutive monthly increases, followed a 0.3 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.7 percent.

Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $0.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $77.5 billion.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up three of the last four months, increased $2.0 billion or 0.8 percent to $234.5 billion. This followed a virtually unchanged August decrease.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in September, down four consecutive months, decreased $3.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $1,119.3 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent August decrease.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in September, up three consecutive months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.1 percent to $384.0 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent August increase.”

Dow futures were up 40 and no, other than Big Money, I have no idea why the market rallied at mid session Wednesday.

Much shorter columns tomorrow, I promise.

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