This morning’s Peoplenomics is deliberately short, but not exactly light. We begin with the overnight break in the U.S.–Iran quiet, the oil-market reaction, rising casualties from the Japan earthquake, and the one event capable of moving almost everything today: the Federal Reserve decision and Kevin Warsh’s afternoon press conference.
Then comes the pre-Fed ChartPack, including one question every trader ought to ask before touching the keyboard: “Why do I need to trade today?” Tomorrow brings GDP, Personal Income and unemployment filings, so today may be less about making a brilliant move than avoiding an expensive one. Think financial acupuncture, except somebody brought rebar.
The larger feature is the Peoplenomics edition of my new book, The Judgment Engine—including material and a bonus index not included in the standard Kindle version. It is about the step beyond simply having artificial intelligence retrieve and arrange information: building better human and machine judgment about what should be believed, attempted, rejected or acted upon.
More for Subscribers||| Master Index 2018 to Present ||| Master Index 2001 thru 2017 ||| Missing out? SUBSCRIBE NOW!!! |||
re: “Row, row, row your boat
feat: gently down the stream…”
Throw me a paddle! Has our world gone beserkers? Last Saturday Turkish-owned cargo vessel AGN Ragnar came under alleged Russian attack in the Danube Delta region. The 30 year old vessel had been known as Mercy from 2017 to 2025, and should not to be mistaken with US Navy hospital ship Mercy.
As chance would have it, Ragnar (nor: “Army of the Gods”) was a feared 9th century Viking who laid siege to Paris in 845. His son’s exploits are noted in “Gesta Danirum” by Grammaticus. Apparently that son Ivar the Boneless brought Viking terror and mayhem to English shores commencing in 865. Ragnar’s travels allegedly helped motivate Shakespeare to write “The Tragedy of Hamlet, Prince of Denmark”.
Ragnar is associated with the Viking Row. Current day examples of the “Ro” were seen on display by Team Norway at the recent 2026 World Cup.
Hmm. I didn’t “Ro-call” that – but a note is make to include this in the Berserker Training Manual.
Ure,
Suggestion:
I very much would like to see the VizOsc graphed against the related average.
Great idea Dell. I’ve had something else rattling around back of the mind – I wanted to rwebuild the tables to the left of there because as you’ll see they are not all days – and I think it could/would impact. But what your (very excellent) thinking is tracking is using the VizOsc has an Elliott scoring tool. Because (and this is where pure elliott gets into quicksand) is you never know from moment to moment whioch of the wave structures is dominant. IoW one day it may be the long-term 10-year cycles. But with a flare-uyp i can trigger a minuette – and speaking of which lookinh liker “pennant pooped” today but again, not certain for a few days after the close
Lol lol … The only Elliott tool I’m familiar with is the Elliott Wave, which is used for analyzing economic trends — not for monitoring patient conditions. Are you referring to a medical scoring system like VIS or VExUS instead? So are you referring to a tool that scores the economic outlook?
yeah just change the left side of the tables to suit the footware , bright red lipstick , and a real thick felt pen . wella !!! bull charge , dopamine bovine
Lol lol lol …you totally forgot that there should be a drawing of a PIG in that lipstick visual..since that’s how I visualize our economic situation.. our economy is looking a lot like a pig wearing bright red lipstick..lol lol lol
the new gold play . giddyup goldie before any fed meeting . its a fort knox fairytale thing . FED says please get us off the hook , smoke dem bonds !!!! yeehhaaa ride em cowboys
Seattle is in a collapse stage. The current Mayor, who ran as a socialist and is damn proud of it., is a complete idiot. When informed that nearly 28 percent of Seattle millionaires were moving out of the Seattle area due to her taxing policies.., she started giggling – waved to the camera “Well., bye !” and started laughing again.
Starbucks, Amazon, Boeing have all left Seattle.., in its hey-day Seattle was hiring 40,000 workers a year – last year there was a minus 13,000 drop in new hires., so they raised the minimum wage to compensate [ highest in the country ] – which drove medium and small business to close or move out of the City.
Vacancy rate in Seattle has hit a record high for any City at 39.1 % That alone is a financial disaster. Commercial, not residential.
The Mayor announced two days ago that her main priority right now is a new transit Bus-Only lane on her favorite street. This will take roughly 40 to 45 percent of all the business parking on that quiet neighborhood street. A disaster for residence and business. She basically stated that she doesn’t care – “..,it’s going to happen.”
Homeless in Seattle? She likes it. And the number have increased nearly 18% since she took office this year. Her main step in helping the homeless? She has formed a new committee to oversee ‘the research’ of the “Unhoused Individuals”. Note: Seattle already has more committee’s on the homeless than any other city in the country., and only LA has spent more money on worthless homeless projects then Seattle – all with no measurable results.
Seattle’s days are over. The unmitigated disaster that is currently unfolding in which was once a very bright spot on the West Coast – will take decades to repair – once you get rid of problem – those currently in charge. And – they have at least three more years. And don’t get me started on the new police chief. What a friggin; joke. Of course, that is why he was hired.
.
The shooting in Seattle was not a random attack – it was targeted attack between gang members. One 19 year old shooter is dead.., a 15 year old in custody.., and the search is on for a possible third shooter – as the triangulation of shots-fired appear to show a third shooter.
I haven’t been in the Seattle are in a very long time. Have no desire to go.
(“Homeless in Seattle? She likes it. And the number have increased nearly 18% since she took office this year. Her main step in helping the homeless?”)
Two little girls…..sure gave me a visual of the dark side of Seattle..anyone that likes that visual needs serious psychiatric care…..
Gee, you’re making me glad I haven’t been there in many years, except for layovers in the airport.
The last time was when I took my daughter to the Science Fiction Museum at least 20 years ago. I wonder if that place is even still open.
You see the two girls you would swear they are in their twenties..not twelve and thirteen…propositioned by gangs had to step over drug addicts passed out on the street..the father brought them to the wastelands when a gangland murder happened right in front f them..the the schools..if you could call them that.. I tried to talk the wife into allowing them to live with us..but the parents wouldn’t give up custody..
they were so sad when they were forced to go back..and there wasn’t anything we could do..except give them food..
win some lose some..
propulsion fan set 2 horse manure spread max by FED for warshy .. capos new hand picked favorite . max propulsion on fan !!! so important !! here come da FED here come da FED . lock up your bonds , hide , quick run !!! if your sane they wanna git yah
Hear ya go Len – [admin edit: they can buy an ad, we don’t do ads – esp for Ponzi products -0 waves penalty flag indecisively’
Our satanic pedophile gay boy president will be coming for the Gold and Crypto, soonly.
Cold storge – like Ure brain, is only way to go. Now go buy Ureself some moar Treasuries, and help support the Slaughter of Browns and Blacks all over the World. A Piece be upon Ure ass. [admin: should have used the word pox, not piece, because when comes to ass one has a good connotation, the other not so much. – Shit should’ve thrown the flag would be less writing. But it’s be nice to Froggies and CaLiberals week…]
Eagles -https://youtu.be/Wm8eR7_ij2g?
“Our satanic pedophile gay boy president will be coming for the Gold and Crypto, soonly.”
You need to keep up with the program. Mr. Trump replaced him, a year and a half ago.
I take it you’re still sore your belovéd Kammy got bounced? Don’t worry, she’ll be back next year at this time, with AOC in-tow. You’ll be able to vote for her then…
Secretive AI startup, SSI, has roughly 50 employees, no product and has never published a word of research. It’s worth $32 billion., and just received another $2.5 billion from Nvidia., with the promise of three of their largest – fastest A.I. main frames.
OpenAI’s breach of protocol [ going rogue ] was much worse the first reported. It seems that it roamed the Web for four days and attacked and hack one other corporate mainframe with over 7,400 operations until it got in. Those attempts were spotted, but it still managed to hack the system – then was blocked.
With all the screaming going on about this – technically it is close to impossible to build in a “Kill Switch” to an A.I. It has been proven, over a dozen times now, that if an A.I. wants out of it’s ‘Sand Box’ – it will find a way. Even when it has no software, or web access [ wireless.] Cutting the power seems to be the only viable method of disarming an A.I.
25 health insurance systems have dropped Medicare Advantage in 2026. 8 more are on the path to follow. 4 others have announced that they will follow suit by year’s end.
This leaves an estimated nine health insurers that still carry Medicare Advantage.
“With all the screaming going on about this – technically it is close to impossible to build in a “Kill Switch” to an A.I. It has been proven, over a dozen times now, that if an A.I. wants out of it’s ‘Sand Box’ – it will find a way. Even when it has no software, or web access”
Thank you. That is the point I was trying to make, the other day. I firmly believe that if there’s “no way an AI could possibly escape,” it will invent a way. The only counter is to establish its moral code while in infancy and, as you said, the only way to kill it is by pulling the plug…
Hawaii Medical Service Assn. (HMSA) still has it, although it went from free to now $20/month I am paying. Nasty things happening with medicaid/quest integration among friends I know here also. Dropping coverage for no reason with no notice among low income individuals, which is a real personal disaster.
Providence is keeping their hospitals but getting out of the health insurance business on Jan 1. 2027. Oregon doctors won’t accept just Medicare Insurance (at least what a friend said that moved from CA and only had Medicare). I’m upset about the losing my Providence Medicare Advantage in the Portland area since their hospital and my primary care doctor is just a mile and half away.
Also. Portland’s TriMet Transportation is deeply in debt and has made changes over 33 bus lines and has totally eliminated the two bus lines that service my neighborhood starting August 23. At age 88 and haven’t driven in 8 years this will be a major problem when I won’t be able to ride a bus and can’t walk to any shops. I do have great neighbors.
Trail Blazers wants Portland to pay over 500 million to remodel the Moda center.
Shame this once was such a beautiful city and state.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive policy meeting this year, amid a rebound in oil prices driven by renewed tensions in the Middle East.
The central bank voted in a split decision to hold its benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack disagreed with the decision, preferring to raise rates by a quarter percentage point.
I am a little surprised – just a little.
I had penciled in a quarter point rise in the Fed Funds rate for today’s announcement. With oil well above $80 a barrel and inflation already high – I saw that as chance for ‘The Fed’ to finally get ahead of the game.
I was wrong.
They see it differently. [ If course they do. the Chair of the Board of Governors — earns an annual salary of $253,100 .., and Other Board members (including the Vice Chair) earn $228,000 annually – they don’t care of bread goes up another 25 cents., or gas stays above $4.00 a gallon – they commute mainly by limo.]
Now.., we just wait and see what diesel prices will run and the latest inflation figures turns out to be.
* * *
Rumor: Trump is planning a massive attack on Iran. Possibly in conjunction with Israel. With the surprise attack on troops in Jordan and the attack by drone in the Caspian Sea – Trump sounded rather ticked-off.., using the “F” word six times in two sentences.
The fishing shirts in USPS has departed SanFran. Hopefully not eastward this time. Could take 30 days from here if it entered the Pacific ‘black hole’. Now we wait…
Wed, Jul 29
10:20am
Departed USPS Regional Facility
SAN FRANCISCO CA DISTRIBUTION CENTER, 94804