Challenger Job Cuts looked really good today:
“Job Cuts Fall in September; Hiring Plans Up 3% Over 2025 On Weak Early Seasonal Hiring.
“SEPTEMBER LAYOFF PLANS FALL TO 43,281; TYPICAL SURGE IN SEASONAL HIRING PLANS ABSENT, BUT HIRING REMAINS ABOVE 2025
U.S.-based employers announced 43,281 job cuts in September, down 18% from the 52,881 announced in August. It is down 20% from the 54,064 layoff plans announced in the same month last year and is the lowest total for the month since 2022, when 29,989 job cuts were recorded, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.”
Stock market futures looked green. Brent was still just over $100 a barrel at press time.
BTW: Most people don’t remember a barrel of crude is based on 42 gallons, not the American 55-gallon containers. History matters! Listen up! 42 gallons harks back to the Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1800s.
The size was already sitting in the cooper’s yard back then. A tierce was an old English wine measure, one-third of a pipe, fixed at 42 gallons, and Pennsylvania tight-coopers had been building that cask since around 1700 for wine, whale oil, and fish. Filled with crude it weighed a bit over 300 pounds, about the limit of what one man could roll. Twenty of them fit a river barge or a flatcar. Bigger casks were unmanageable. Smaller ones did not pay.
Edwin Drake’s well at Titusville came in during 1859, and for the next few years oil moved in whatever cask was handy. Early field tallies were often kept in 40-gallon barrels. A federal commission looking at an oil tax in February 1866 still counted that way. Buyers with ordinary barrels were losing out to sellers who showed up with oversized ones.
On August 31, 1866, producers along Oil Creek issued a circular. They would stop selling crude by the barrel or the package and sell by the gallon only. On every 40 gallons gauged, the buyer got an allowance of two gallons. That allowance is the whole origin of the unit: 40 plus 2, frozen in place. The extra two covered seepage and evaporation from wooden staves on the barge ride down the Allegheny, and it also sweetened the change in measure so buyers would accept it. The Petroleum Producers Association adopted 42 gallons in 1872. The U.S. Geological Survey and the Bureau of Mines followed in 1882. The standard is measured at 60°F.
Almost nobody moves oil in a 42-gallon barrel anymore. Pipelines, tankers, and the 55-gallon steel drum did that job in. The drum is a shipping container, standardized much later, and it is not the pricing unit. When Brent is quoted at $100 a barrel, the arithmetic is still the 1866 tierce: 42 gallons, or about $2.38 a gallon for the crude itself, before the refinery, the tax, or the crack spread. (Hold the entendres, please…)
No, that’s not “news” per se. But it’s the useful stuff people don’t know. See that switch?
News Compressor: “ON”
A word about our (Peoplenomics side) “Over the Horizon Software” (OTH) project.
This morning’s data run uncovered a potentially important OTH transition. For weeks, the central question has been whether the Gulf event would settle before its economic consequences became self-propagating.
Now we have: Gulf physical flows improving -> oil no longer exploding upward -> but sovereign yields hitting multi-decade extremes -> while Russia and China independently restrict refined-fuel exports -> and unrelated geopolitical stress is appearing from Ukraine to Ethiopia to the western Pacific.
That does not prove the newer December data ridge we have been tracking. But it supplies exactly the mechanism we have been looking for. Which is? An initiating shock handing momentum to several downstream systems which no longer require the initiating shock to worsen.
Put differently: The event clock may be slowing while the consequence clocks are multiplying.
That is today’s BlinkLab tell.
“Headline Me”
(Will some hand reader Egor a fire extinguisher? I think his hair may combust from this one…)
BONDS — The financial consequence clock is becoming today’s lead story. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have reached their highest since 2002, British 30-year gilts crossed 6% for the first time since 1998, and borrowing costs are rising across major developed markets even as technology shares get some support from AI earnings.
2. RUSSIA / UKRAINE — The overnight strike cycle continued rather than cooling. A Russian drone smashed into a Kyiv school while children sheltered below, and another strike damaged infrastructure in Odesa; Ukraine says the newer jet-powered drones are proving harder to intercept.
3. CHINA / FUEL — Beijing has introduced a new downstream energy constraint. Chinese refiners have suspended October fuel-product exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau pending further government direction, with at least one company cancelling cargoes; combined with Russia’s extended diesel-export ban, this puts refined products back on the OTH board independently of crude. Remember our “self-referencing collapse” discussions?
4. ETHIOPIA — The renewed northern war may be propagating toward the capital. OK, another vacation spot off the board.
Inside Pages
The Philippines deployed its largest coast-guard vessel plus an aircraft to challenge a Chinese research ship operating near Batanes, close to Taiwan; Manila says the operation forced the vessel to stop loitering. Escalating operationally.
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung used Armed Forces Day to call for renewed dialogue with Pyongyang — like they’ll bite? South Korean exports surged 83.5% year over year to a record $120.9 billion in September, driven heavily by semiconductor demand. So is this an AI story or a military note?
Euro-zone manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace in more than three years during September according to PMI data. No, the reports don’t back out Ukraine spending separately but inquiring minds. Meanwhile, Russian military spending is budgeted to increase another 27% in 2027 to roughly $202 billion, according to budget documents reviewed by Reuters. War is good for economies worldwide. What would we ever do without it?
Turkey’s manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9. (Decorum demands I skip the November no recovery for turkey lookahead.)
Indian equities are headed toward their longest weekly losing streak in roughly 25 years as foreign investors continue withdrawing money. India remains one of the cleaner places to watch imported-energy stress propagate into financial assets.
U.S. investors are beginning to question whether this year’s exceptional corporate-profit growth can continue, even though profits have been an important support underneath equity valuations. Remember, accounting profits aren’t spendable money to investors.
The EU aviation regulator advised airlines to avoid Saudi airspace following recent Houthi attacks. Yesterday’s news: A flydubai flight bound for Tel Aviv reached Israel after passengers and crew intervened when the co-pilot allegedly stabbed the pilot and attempted to crash the aircraft, according to Israeli authorities. The episode initially reported as a diversion is now being treated as a deliberate onboard attack.
Press Release Circuit
After 8:30 AM (Eastern) hits. check:
Here for the weekly UI Filings Update and…
Here for the updated Drought maps.
Here for latest long-range Climate Prediction Maps.
Hank Soup
The principal near-term U.S. physical hazard remains Polo-derived tropical moisture interacting with a slow-moving weather system across Texas and the southern Plains. Flood watches cover portions of Texas into Friday, with the Houston threat shifting toward late Thursday and Friday.
At the Ranch: Retirement Landmark
Tomorrow’s report will be super short. The Federal job numbers, market reaction, and the BlinkLab News Compressor. As I told you back in July, as of October 1 the Friday UrbanSurvival columns would truncate, and I’d be able to get a full three-day weekend every week.
November 1st, the Tuesday Urban columns will also be simmered and reduced.
The whole idea is to get everyone who gives a rip over onto Peoplenomics.com which is where the deeper thinking lives. Subscriptions are STILL just $40/year as they have been since Y2K. We will see about 2027 inflation but we always take care of existing subscribers with reduced rates and so forth.
Another PN Book Hits Amazon Kindle
From the “book blurb”:
We are bolting a thinking machine onto an old primate, inside institutions built for yesterday, while the financial system is already leaning forward.
Test-Fitting Apes is not a prediction with a delivery date. It is a shop manual for the collision: seven futures, one animal, and the household that has to live inside whatever mix actually arrives.
Artificial intelligence is being sold as a productivity tool. History says productivity is only the first act. The automobile did more than shorten a trip. Radio did more than remove the wire. The Internet did more than share files. Each time, the advertised job was real—and civilization then discovered what else the new capability made cheap, fast, or scalable.
George A. Ure treats AI the same way he treats a new saw in the shop: useful, dangerous in the wrong hands, and never as simple as the brochure. The ape in these pages is us—capable of symphonies and orbital mechanics, also capable of monetizing four uses of a tool, weaponizing two, and holding a conference about the mess.
Seven test-fits follow. Amplification. Partnership. Uneven abundance. Winter. Capture. A deflationary misfit between cheap cognition and nominal debt. A last bad fit when speed outruns judgment. Real history will borrow from several at once. The point is not to pick a winner. The point is to see the mechanisms while they are still visible: ownership versus rental, output versus claims, assistance versus dependency, speed versus the pause that keeps a civilization from optimizing itself into a corner.
Then the book comes home. Wallets. Time. Slack. The Dawson kitchen. The Monday-morning jig you can run on an employer’s new “meeting assistant” before the contract is signed.
The machine will change the fit. Underneath it remains the same inventive, tribal, astonishing creature who carried fire before he understood chemistry. Now he has built a tool that can help him think.
That may be the greatest opportunity in human history. It may also be the most revealing mirror we have ever made.
Welcome to the fitting room.
Also in Ure’s nonfiction AI series: The Judgment Engine, Co-Telligence, Theomachines, and Mind Amplifiers. His most recent novel is the two-part anti-aging thriller D546: The Ancient Children (Books 1 and 2).”
The most recent novel to “go public” after Peoplenomics readers got it free is “The Good War” which is available for preordering now:
“This is the single most compelling science fiction I’ve read in several decades. Get it published, please, George.”
They told you some wars are necessary. They never told you who writes the necessity.
In George Ure’s latest novel, The Good War, a handful of people who were never supposed to compare notes begin to see the same thing: the conflict on the screens is only part of the larger operation. Behind the flags, speeches, casualty counts, and solemn music, someone is managing a reset—and selling it as a moral duty.
Peace would ruin the people who run the machinery. So, scarcity becomes a weapon, information becomes a script, and even nuclear use can be made to sound reasonable. Somewhere beyond the public chain of command, the books are being kept on which nations, which stories, and which people will survive into the next cycle.
You get the idea. (And a nod to Andy…)
Missed emails: several readers have asked about Chris Tyreman – getting email to work between us isn’t – yet. (Pet theory is darkness is at work…). Will keep you posted.
Now, go read our Comments section because there is some real gold in there…
Write when you get off work,
George@Ure.net
**Thought for the Day**
(posted on the wall next to my desk)
**Nature is only pretty from a safe distance, because everything in it wants to eat you**
Or turn me into ‘Hank Soup’!!
Isn’t that what they did to Captain Cook? “Cook Soup” on the menu one night, probably on YOUR island too!!
Long pork… a dark history of Seattle…the more modern one is women sex trafficked..and suggestions or conspiracies that suggest that once their profitability in the sex trade drops.. they are used in harvesting organs and dumped out at sea…
I once read an investigation report on the PNW and NE usa.. about A satanic pedo ring..once a claim came out a few years ago and who was supposedly involved in the fake news stories then all of it vanished like a fart in the night..even the media coverage..
this is what the girls parents were trying to get the kids away from..unfortunately they failed and had to go back to the ghettos of seattle..
my niece and her kids lived in an affluent area of seattle..they moved due to the increased crime and violence….
Yep, that happened on the Big Island…
https://www.gettyimages.com/photos/captain-cook-monument
Well? What do you kids want?
I want a double order of ham and eggs, and I want a piece of pie, and I want a cup of coffee.
You must be hungry.
Boy, and how, I could eat a rubber boot!
Got any money?
Nope.
Well how do you expect to eat?
We don’t expect it, we just want it!
Come on you kids, scram, get out of here.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=G9h_q8bi0xo&list=PLs7ogDrD92aEloH4BMAzwFq-N2JZZcHP-&index=54&pp=iAQB
“George A. Ure treats AI the same way he treats a new saw in the shop: useful, dangerous in the wrong hands, and never as simple as the brochure. The ape in these pages is us—capable of symphonies and orbital mechanics, also capable of monetizing four uses of a tool, weaponizing two, and holding a conference about the mess.”
When I was asked whether nuclear energy is good or bad, I always answered “yes.” When asked about AI, my answer is the same.
It all depends on the intent of the user. Is it being used for unselfish reasons to help others or for selfish reasons of power to bring harm to others?
At the end of life, we won’t be judged by what was in our brain but what was in our heart.
Ditto for things like Flock cameras.
Misuse of the data is the option that has people stirred up. Cameras don’t tract people, people do. Just like guns don’t kill people, people do.
No JJ, AI tracks the peeps and drives the cameras. Been that way for…. Wait for it……. Over a decade and a half.
https://www.caci.com/MOTE
Not advice, don’t do bad things on camera lol.
I am not sure who qualifies to ‘judge’ me.., but it won’t be for what I have thought.., or what was in my heart.., but what I have done.
It is what you do that matters.
(“When I was asked whether nuclear energy is good or bad, I always answered “yes.” When asked about AI, my answer is the same.
It all depends on the intent of the user.”)
so true… I myself am not a fan of nuclear energy…it’s interesting…but.. it’s difficult to dispose of the waste.. we really don’t know that much..more today than yesterday..if there’s an accident or it’s used for evil .it takes out vast territory and causes a tremendous amount of destruction and death…we are gaining information daily..but not enough to say it’s safe energy…
like when I scooped hot dirt from a spill where they simply didn’t tell us what we were scooping..or the Bikini islands where they tried to convince them it was good for them..like getting a sun tan…
Who knows, maybe yes, maybe no.We will find out soon.
https://usawatchdog.com/everything-coming-to-a-head-because-of-black-star-weston-warren/
re: “Cuts Look Good”
feat: “Retirement Landmark”
A black-suited Mr. Stella McCartney with white running shoes and green socks found himself at the Paris Fashion Show sandwiched between immaculately attired Hollywood goddess JLO and a down to earth British actress who portrays Philomena Cunk. The latter, Diane Morgan in real life, is also apparently embarking on a second season of filming with the BBC for her “Ann Droid” series. Ann Droid, a re-purposed Z58/100 Elder Care Robot, guides her retired human charge through the challenges of life in 2029. Ann’s dealer, the R3botics Company, also appears to have other Android models available for plot enhancement in episodes.
Separately Canadian superstar Celine Dion kicked off the Fashion Week extravaganza at the Eiffel Tower with a selection from her “A New Day Has Come” album – “I’m Alive”. An original music video made for the 2002 single featured a child-operated cgi drone performing acrobatic manouvers around Central Park, New York.
re: “Airplane”, 1980
The story surrounding yesterday’s hijacked plane landing in Tabuk (ar: military camp/resting place) is taking flight. Allegedly after the plumber regained a semblance of flight control, he received assistance from a dentist, an insurance industry person, and…a banker.
Trump Tour 2026 will be making stops in Ohio. Hopefully he gives us an update on the cats. Trump dangling stings in front of safe, uneaten Calicos like $5,000 checks in front of constituents will garner Red votes.
“Flood watches”
Al Gore did say this would happen.
Rush Limbaugh and his cohort said something about inabilities to predict future weather 25 years out.
GU : “… shock handing momentum to several downstream systems which no longer require the initiating shock to worsen …”
5.3 is a crushing nummer. Everyone knows it. We are wobbling at 2006 rates. Enough. Uncle. Aunty. Make it stop. We are at the they can’t stage.
Nope. Enormous gamble underway. Remain near foxhole rim and keep yur helmet handy. Or, go cash in a week on an oceanic cat? Hmm …
A: go sailing,
Egor ~~ ___|_ ~
I do like the Lagoon 44 – except for the bridge – really exposed to all the weather.
Egor – he’s a poker guy – bridge makes n o sense to him!
I like to play Bridge. Used to play a lot. Do not have Masters Points, though. My Great-Grandfather taught me Poker when I was six.
I always feel better when I get to the other side of the Zilwaulkee Bridge … the BIG BRIDGE in Michigan that almost fell down as they were building it do to an engineering mistake (should have actually, the engineering mistake was that bad). Still don’t trust it even though I have now crossed over it many times and they NOW claim it is “safe”. (carries I-75 north of Detroit over the Saginaw River coming in from Lake Huron to the Dow Chemical complex so it has to be high enough for ocean freighters to pass underneath). Can’t say I ever go wet though when I went over it though … ;-0
Fair seas always take priority in any long term planning. Who says electricity and water don’t mix? lol.
https://www.yachtworld.com/boats-for-sale/type-power/class-power-catamaran/fuel-electric/
George and readers –
Here is a link to the youtube channel of Andrew Leyden (goes by the name Penguinsix) who is a freelance photographer in D.C. that you might find interesting. He has access to the White House and Capitol Hill plus he bikes around the city to cover various stories.
https://www.youtube.com/@Penguinsix
Had a few drops of rain; keeping fingers crossed for the big rain the weather people keep promising is coming.
Four out of twelve for going sailing… seems the message is making sense.
We’re ready.
Stiks
I am so jealous…..of all my siblings..I am the only one that didn’t make it to Mr. Rogers neighborhood.. my globe trotting little sister showed up today…she was talking about having a meal and visit with…
Emeril….I had to ask..did you get to cook with him…no all he made was some fish.. heck sis I don’t care if he made peanut butter sandwiches
Filched from farcebook:
The Dirty Hands Report – Oilfield
DIESEL IS UP $2.63 A GALLON IN A YEAR. ONLY 84 CENTS OF THAT IS THE OIL. HERE IS WHERE THE REST WENT
The most liked comment on last Thursday’s diesel post was about the refining margin. So we took a gallon apart with EIA’s numbers.
Short version…most of it is the refining spread, not the oil. Of the 2.63 a gallon diesel went up, 84 cents is the oil and 1.68 is the spread. The last 11 cents is everything after the refinery.
THE BOARD
• Diesel, EIA weekly survey…6.382 for 9/28, up from 3.754 a year earlier
• Diesel, AAA national today…6.389, off the 6.528 record set 9/22
• Brent…102.31, up 4.4% Thursday on the December contract
• WTI…92.87, November contract, Thursday settle
THE GALLON, TAKEN APART
EIA prices on the last Monday of September, 2025 against 2026:
• Crude…WTI spot at Cushing went from 64.27 to 99.37 a barrel. Divide by 42 gallons and that’s 84 cents more per gallon
• Wholesale diesel…New York Harbor went from 2.392 to 4.910, up 2.52
• Refining spread…wholesale minus crude went from 86 cents to 2.54, up 1.68
• Everything after the refinery, the truck, the terminal, the station and the tax…up 11 cents
That’s our math off EIA’s spot prices and pump survey, not an official EIA breakdown. Gulf Coast wholesale and other September dates tell the same story, and EIA’s own monthly breakdown, through May, has refining as the biggest jump too.
We used WTI because what US refiners actually pay for crude runs within a few dollars of it, per EIA. Spot WTI ran about 7 dollars over the futures price Monday and Tuesday, which is why it reads higher than the board.
WHAT THE SPREAD IS
It’s a gross number. Wholesale diesel minus crude, before the plant pays for labor, power, turnarounds or anything else.
RBN Energy figures about 15 dollars a barrel of it, roughly 36 cents a gallon, goes to federal renewable fuel compliance. The NYMEX diesel crack hit a record 113.48 a barrel on 9/16, per RBN.
WHY IT’S THIS WIDE
Diesel trades at a world price, and right now there isn’t enough to go around.
• Chinese refiners suspended October fuel exports, Reuters reported Thursday
• Russia extended its diesel export ban for producers through Oct 31. Resellers stay barred through January
• Middle East crude is back near prewar flows, per CNBC. Fuel shipments from the region are still constrained
• US refineries went from 96.8% of capacity to 92.5% in the 2 weeks to 9/25, heading into fall maintenance season, per EIA
So a shortage overseas lands on the pump in Williston and Midland.
WHAT WASHINGTON CAN TOUCH
• Taxes…24.4 cents federal plus about 35.5 cents average state, per the Farm Bureau. A federal holiday is worth 24.4 cents at most, and Penn Wharton figures about 15 cents of that would reach the pump
• Export limits…these go after the spread. Some in Congress want diesel exports paused. The Energy Secretary and refiner groups say tanks would fill and plants would cut runs. S&P Global figured a full ban could cut US refinery runs by nearly 1.9 million barrels a day
• Neither a tax holiday nor an export limit goes after the crude price. Thursday it moved on the war. Brent jumped 4.4% after a Wall Street Journal report that a 3rd US carrier group is headed to the Middle East
• As of Thursday night nothing was signed. Reuters reported Thursday the US told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a US export ban. EU officials meet Friday
WHAT IT MEANS ON LOCATION
Every hotshot, crude hauler and diesel frac fleet pays the diesel price, and most of what got added this year sits in the spread, not the barrel.
A service company answering the Dallas Fed survey this week wrote “Diesel prices continue to erode margins.”
An operator wrote “I don’t quite understand why the price is high at the pump. The U.S. has plenty of supply.”
The gallon above is the answer.
WHERE IT GOES FROM HERE
EIA forecast in September that diesel stocks stay below their 2021-2025 low through the end of 2026 and most of 2027.
Dates to watch…Europe’s stock decision, China’s next export call, Russia’s producer ban running out Oct 31, OPEC+ on Sunday.
WHO’S HIRING
Outfits are hiring in North Dakota, Wyoming and Texas, including seats that need no CDL.
I have farcebook so I can snoop on my family. That said, I’m thinking about adding a few interesting pages, like this one…