A few ideas on “How Forecast Reliability Decays — and How to Use It to Your Advantage.”
In the world of investing, we all want to know: how far into the future can we trust our forecasts? Whether it’s market movements, volatility, or macroeconomic predictions, the ability to foresee what’s coming is a valuable tool for any investor.
But forecasting isn’t static. Dynamical systems weigh. Over time, predictive models lose reliability. The future is not equally trustworthy when beheld at all distances — and the key to managing risk lies in understanding how and when our forecast trust begins to decay.
In this exclusive premium article, we propose a groundbreaking model for quantifying forecast decay in financial markets — and explore how to use this knowledge to make smarter investment decisions.
Why This Matters to You:
Predictive Confidence Isn’t the Same Over Time: Most investors assume that market predictions decline linearly. But forecast trust decays exponentially over time — and this affects every investor. Understanding when decay sets in can help you make better, more informed decisions. We cover:
- How forecast trust decays and how to measure its “half-life” using simple, practical models.
- How to recognize when a forecast is losing credibility and how to adjust your positions accordingly.
- Insights into short-term vs. long-term forecasting, and why timing is everything.
- Strategic, actionable insights that help you stay ahead of volatility and market shocks.
Ready to Take Your Forecasting to the Next Level? Gain access to this article and more by supporting Peoplenomics for just $40/year.
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Too many biases to predict the future.
Drudge reports –
“Professor Stephen Hawking seen with women in bikinis in new Epstein files photo”
A rerun and tell about Stephen’s time travel party. ;)
https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fpkibriyoxahg1.jpeg
re: “The Race for the Double Helix”, 1987
feat: S. Holmes – ‘Come quickly, Watson!’
St. Pancras, a 14 year old orphan martyred in 304 ad, is a patron saint of children and is buried on the Via Aurelia (lat:”Golden Way”) in Rome. His name derives from Greek meaning “the one that holds everything”.
QE2 accompanied by the Duke of Edinburgh opened a refurbished St. Pancras International in November, 2007 which became a terminus for Eurostar high speed rail services to Brussels and Paris. Ten years later, the Queen, Prince Phillip, and the then duke of york appeared across the road from St. Pancras to open a newly constructed Crick Institute. It is Europe’s largest biomedical lab. Briton Crick and American Watson are credited with discovering the double helix structure of dna in 1953, and received the Nobel Peace Prize for Medicine in 1962.
Reviews of the 1987 film “The Race for the Double Helix” about the road to dna structural discovery quoted a Crick call for patience with the words “softly, softly catchee monkey”. His phrase is said to originate from “Uncle Remus: His Songs and His Sayings” by White American author Joel Chandler Harris published in 1881. The book sets in print for the first time oral Black plantation and slave dialects of the American South. I couldn’t find the phrase in Harris’s book now digitized on Archive.
I asked ChatGPT. It concluded that the first published example with those specific words appears in “The Downfall of Prempeh” by Baden-Powell (later, founder of the Scouting movement) published in 1896. The exact phrase does show up at least twice in the digitized version on Google Books. Baden-Powel’s work is a diary of his 1895-96 military expedition to force the Ashanti Kingdom into the British Protectorate of the Gold Coast now known as the nation of Ghana. The Ashanti were fond of human sacrifices in fulfilment (Ca) /fulfillment (US) of their cultural practices which neighboring tribes as well as the colonial office in London found disturbing.
The “Daily Mail” reported on Wednesday about the Prince of Wales’ current visit to the Crick Institute biomedical lab. He prepared a slice of monkey kidney for research examination under a microscope.
Nine days ago “The Telegraph” published a picture outside its paywall. The image portrays Dr. Watson, co-discover of dna helix structure, in the company of three young ladies of scientific inquiry in the New York abode of Mr. J. Epstein at the following link:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/17/epstein-photo-scientist-james-watson/
Here is a teaser at the following Youtube link from the 1993 film “The Firm” starring Tom Cruise. (As chance would have it, the movie’s most recent Wikipedia page update was completed by Ser Amantio di Nicolao.):
https://youtu.be/ecBD3dRnho8
Rosalind Franklin made most of the DNA discovery, although Watson and Crick took all the credit:
https://www.epa.gov/radtown/women-radiation-history-rosalind-franklin
Crick visiting the Epstein mansion:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/17/epstein-photo-scientist-james-watson/
Hmm… interesting…YET…Forecasts decay fastest when the “base layer” of society erodes… the issues facing the base simply b don’t exist on their tier of society..Financial models assume: that the institutions are stable , tgey follow a predictable behavior, there are consistent incentives, and a functioning social cohesion n society….
But when the base layer — the lived reality of most people — starts to crack, the models don’t just weaken; they fail catastrophically. This is why: 1929 looked prosperous right up until it wasn’t…it was an overnight shock and awe moment.. 2007 looked stable until the subprime layer collapsed and many simply didn’t know or care..
Ancient Rome looked wealthy while its social fabric was dissolving..NERO fiddling while Rome burned..
Forecasts are only as good as the assumptions beneath them.
Elites have historically missed all the warning signs…Not because they’re foolish or stupid — but because they were insulated the issues simply didn’t exist…
When you live in a tier of society where: food is always available..run to the store pick up what you need availability..when I was on vacation..we went to a nice local grocery store..the checker had a look I seen oh so many times..I mentioned she sure looks troubled..you should ask how’s your day going or you sure look like something is wrong wanna vent .. the comment made is oh its nothing.. see in those tiers housing is secure..ive seen three families forced to move into campers due to low income housing exceeds low income wages..
healthcare is accessible in the usa we have one of the most expensive and poorest healthcare systems of the planet..medications are tens of thousands percent higher than anywhere all while we give over a hundred billion for researching.. income is stable…locally when utilities went up hours were reduced so the employer could meet these increases..…Unfortunately it becomes almost impossible to feel the early tremors that the lower tiers experience first because of this.
By the time the upper tier notices, the system is already in the late?stages of stress.
This pattern repeats across civilizations throughout time:
Rome , Han China , the Mayans , the Ottoman Empire , the British Empire ,
In every case the people at the top believed everything was fine because their world was fine…
In each case the forecasting models failed because they assumed linearity of a system that appeared safe and somewhat stable..
Unfortunately societies don’t decline linearly — they decline no linearly, with tipping points and feedback loops that often simply are not observed… while think tanks assume the USA has still got time is simply because they see society and the economy from their viewpoint..
A small stressor like healthcare, rising fuel, rising taxes on the bottom tiers or simply inflated costs of essentials can suddenly cascade into:
political instability, think about it… a new candidate hits the campaign platform he stands on changing the present system all on dead horse issues that float in an endless loop.. Obama made it into office because of the broken healthcare industry only to make it worse in some ways..higher profit man margins for insurance companies and the pharmaceutical industry…
then theres an economic contraction, social unrest over this void..Marie Antoinette and her let them eat cake platform..instead if they would have understood and acted on the issues the results would have been so much different…
Then you have an institutional breakdown, This is why “everything looks normal” right up until the moment it doesn’t…. the oh shit moment in history..
The simple paradox to this is : those periods were images of highest optimism often preceded a historic collapse of the system and a civilization in change…
Right before major downturns, you often see: record profits being recorded..look at house prices or rent in San Francisco.. the canary in the coal mine..there are booming markets , confident market forecasts , elite optimism … simply Bbecause the people making predictions are looking at surface?level indicators from their perspective , not the structural health… consider our crumbling infrastructure and our failing to fix it because we are simply to busy at war to gain more for fat walley’s pocket book or ledger..
It’s like judging a building by the paint job while ignoring the foundation….
of course that’s what I see from the tier of society that I reside on..and there are tiers way below mine …
consider the city of freedom…
https://youtu.be/BusNOz13cIw?si=H_Yb3_36KsLt_xeH
A problem..but not one in the Hampton or neighborhoods north of richmond..
https://youtu.be/sqSA-SY5Hro?si=S2mse5XFDpcAQzS6
Its always amazed and baffled me….It’s fascinating on how much forecasting depends on the stability of the underlying system — and how often that part gets ignored over and over.
We’ve had thousands of years of warnings passed from campfire stories to carved stone to economic textbooks, all pointing to the same patterns happening over and over:
civilizations don’t collapse and fail because no one saw the signs , they essentially collapse because the people in charge weren’t living in the same reality as everyone else .
When the base of society is slowly eroding, the models still look fine, the profits still look strong, and the forecasts still look optimistic — but only from the vantage point of those insulated from the results of decline… Past depressions and fallen empires show the same thing the same patterns the exact same results… the greatest danger to a civilization or an economy isn’t due to a bad prediction, it’s the assumption that “it can’t happen here.” it always happens to someone else..
the same with wars.. we haven’t seen a war in over a hundred years on this continent..so the horrors of one are not something we can visualize.. in our minds we think oh if I do this I am immune.. I remember starting to walk to work..twelve and a half miles in winter..no snow boots or gloves..the only coat I had and hat was a pea coat and a stocking hat..I’d shove crumpled news papers and wore two airs of pants..
today my kids have to drive to go two blocks..the reality of what I had to do..just doesn’t exist in their world..
I’ve told it many times..if you truly want to see if you will survive any catastrophic event..simply shut off all the convenient utilities..park the car..
( when our car broke down I joked to the wife we would get a goat cart lol lol)
We keep preserving the knowledge, but we keep losing the perspective.
I don’t see it quite that way. In life it’s easy to rely on only your viewpoint if self centered. Anyone who watches, who listens, sees a sense of their fellow man. If they look listen.
Most of the market turns missed were not really hidden. After the fact it’s always a forehead slap and “how could we be so stupid?” kind of thing. Totally wild west mortgage policies drew insane price increases. The masses, upper strata and midlings all played along. Shazaam. Cascading failures with jingle mail (send keys to mtg holder) right before government instituted well meaning crazy protections which spread to owners.
Then … we got to learn a whole series of new acronyms. Some were ordinary CDS (credit default swaps) but the financial industry created a gob of liquidity inducing cross purpose products. No one wanted to be a counter party to anyone else. Imagine how that works today with 40% of the Russell being zombie corporations (have to borrow to exist).
There will be the next thing. We won’t see it. Or, we’ll see it but be swooned in the swan song. how could we be so stupid?
3rd leg of the stool (after tech / fundamental analysis) is Investor Psychology. We should all book a session. Mentals we are.
Egor of The Ice
__/)___________
But,but,but..The MERC!
Merchantile Exchange shutdown due to……
wait for it…
technical issues..bwahahahahaahahahahah
Sure thing E dog, guess Ure ready to make a deposit of that used Russian pontoon bridge I have for Sale ?
BB- “Natasha – methinks the Merc is lying.”
NB – “Yes Darlink, tis what the scumbag Regulators assigned Chicago do.”
I thought it was Natasha Nogoodnick? NN?
“What is that ROAR we here ahead? The current seems to be picking up!” (someone in the pioneer days in a boat leaving Lake Erie and heading into the Niagara River)
Yep … I totally believe the Exchange and it’s “stated” reason for shutting down and cancelling most pending Orders.
I see what your saying..and what you’re saying makes a lot of sense, and I believe the psychology piece is real — but what I can’t shake and keeps we wondering is how these patterns keep repeating even though the warnings have been passed down for thousands of years, it sure isn’t a secret..
Every single collapse in history has left behind lessons and warnings about what to avoid: they are carved into stone, written on scrolls, taught in schools, and analyzed in economic forums in every language… The knowledge survives, yet the perspective doesn’t seem to matter..
The people making decisions are usually the ones insulated from the early cracks, so the system still looks stable from where they sit kind of like winning the Oscar.. those deciding on who wins are those not watching the films. they in turn are isolated from the general viewing public….
Meanwhile the base layer of society is eroding in ways their models don’t capture, it’s just that the issues simply don’t exist.
By the time the top tier of society and political representatives feels the tremors, the damage is already baked in. in politics its sometimes referred to the DC bubble.. what they see is not conceived to be real..
I believe that’s why so many “unforeseen” downturns look obvious in hindsight.
It’s not that the signs weren’t there — Bit that it’s that the people who needed to see them weren’t living in the same reality as the people who felt them first.
In the end, it’s the old saying: you can’t judge the state of a society until you’ve walked a mile in the shoes of the people holding it up.
Home sales in California are now down 30%, gas going to $8.00 soon, and top 2 candidates for gov. are Republicans. Tipping point?
Tell me how you survive a recall petition? When, the signatures are registered voters calling for a special election, it meant the incumbent was already assumed out because a successful recall petitiion has to have a majority of the registered voter base as signatories in order to hold a special election. Is my understanding correct? Or do I need to read the Dominion manual? LOL.
Thats some Gruesome mojo LOL.
gas prices from $3 to $5, stop the fear mongering.
‘Surprise surprise surprise’ as Gomer Pyle would say to the Sargeant, you could get a surprise detention center in your backyard someday lol:
https://apnews.com/article/immigration-detention-centers-pushback-24e702da67281a672b0f77287aaa87ba
‘As public support for the agency and President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown sags, communities are objecting to mass detentions and raising concerns that the facilities could strain water supplies and other services while reducing local tax revenue. In many cases, mayors, county commissioners, governors and members of Congress learned about ICE’s ambitions only after the agency bought or leased space for detainees, leading to shock and frustration even in areas that have backed Trump.’
The Polarization Industrial Complex was designed only for the profit of GOP donors, John Doe gets nothing but a ruined town:
https://jacobin.com/2026/01/ice-migrant-detention-contractors-profits
‘The largest immigrant deportation and prison contractors in the US are expecting an epic payout this year: for every $1 that they donated to GOP campaigns in 2024, these private companies stand to reap more than $11,000 in increased annual revenue.’
Home sales in Texas and FL are down much more than 30%
https://www.newsweek.com/map-shows-slowest-housing-markets-across-us-11494271
I think 1929 was a setup.
Anyway, Trump mentioned techs building their own power plants last night.
They’re on it.
Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, xAI, Oracle and OpenAI will visit the White House March 4th
“Leaders from Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, xAI, Oracle and OpenAI will converge at the White House on March 4th for a high-level summit on artificial intelligence and energy.
The seven companies driving the global AI development will formally sign the Rate Payer Protection Pledge announced by President Trump during his State of the Union address. Under the agreement the companies will be allowed to build, bring or buy their own dedicated power supply for new data centers.”
I guess we should invest in modular mini nuclear reactor companies until the first Chernobyl or Fukushima. We need the poll widget.
Yo Snooze,
You be way late to the micro nuke market. This may be a good thing as the early high flyers have given alot back recently. Driving home my advice to “lick Ure icecream cones”…before it melts.
Transparency forces my hand to acknowledge that TBS is Looong OKLO stock. Nor a recomendation-NOT.
Without proper timelines/timeframes , most will more than likely get wrecked.
That being said, if you had “dipped Ure toes” into shoutouts, chances are you would be better off today , than last year. Key word = CHANCES.
Dont get Chanced.
Ahhh Grasshopper,
lost in the weeds again are we ? Its cool, as always there many different styles of investing/investors. Key being – Invest or Perish financially over course of a Lifetime.
This of course brings me to Crypto Financial Infrastructure., DA FUTURE.
Infrastructure plays are where they are hiding the proverbial “Biscuits” (big gains). You suspect this to be true in the back of Ure minds.
DTCC for example is receiving SEC approval for Tokenized securities in H2 2026. Thats right haters, the SEC is on board, perhaps THEY will toss you a “life raft” down the road..
dont count on it.
NYSE and NASDAQ actively planning tokenize equities.
with 24/7 trading. how about them Apples, haters?
Major institutions, Blackrock’s BUILD, Ondo, Securitize, Centrirfuge, scaling rapidly.
ETHERIUM holds 65% of all real world assets in the ecosystem.
CANTON network leads with 7,829 tokenized real world assets
* Total Tokenized Assets (excluding stable coins) $25.1 billion, up from $5 billion at start of 2025.
Represented Asset Value – $372.98 Billion (including stable coins)
Infrastructure Layers Powering Tokenization
Level 1 – Blockchains:
Etherium dominates with security, liquidity and mature DeFi.
Solana, Avelanch, Hedera Hashgraph(ID’d this last YEAR), Polymesh and Plume gaining traction.
Nifty forecast that (Hedera), Cause you gotta Be IN IT 2 WIN IT..duh-ooooooH!
CANTON Network purpose-built for institutional TradeFi with privacy features.
PERMISSIONED access on public chains (like BNB Paribas) allowing institutional participation.
Oracles/Databridges
Chainlink positioned as BLOOMBERG of Crypto and undisputed leader.
Provides price feeds, proof of reserves, compliance attestations, off-chain data.
Chainlink CCIP anables cross chain data and asset movement.
* Without reliable oracles, smart contracts cant price assets or trigger settlement.
Multi chain ecosystem emerging as the standard.
Layer zero, Chainlink CCIP, and Cosmos IBC breaking down silos.
Treasury tokenized on Etherium can become collateral on Solano DeFi.
Total Asset mobility is a (2026 Lock)
Scaling Solutions – do Ure own due diligence if interested(Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync) handle high-volume settlement.
Settlement Infrastructure
Delivery versus Payment (DvP) enables instant finality on chain.
Synchronizes asset delivery and payment in one atomic transaction.
Eliminates T+2 settlement delays from traditional brokers.
** Best accumulated during Crypto Winters, when attention is elsewhere.
TBS crypto winter investment strategy;
buy when there is BLOOD in streets (old redshield advice)
extreme fear = asymmetric opportunity.
set stink bids on exchanges to catch flash crash wicks.
accumulation period while portfolio watching is painful.
BMFF – Big Mother F- Forecast, with zero decay expo or otherwise.
NOT “if” but “when” – next decade will see massive real-world asset migration on chain.
Yerp – its just made-up numbers ponzi scheme to keep the destitute wage slaves in perpetual debt slavery…..bwaaahahahaah
[Admin: then he devolved into hate…but he’s getting better with training.]
Admin now turns on th4e BS filter
The correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the U.S. stock market has varied over time, but in general, Bitcoin has shown some correlation with major U.S. market indices, such as the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ, especially during periods of significant market stress or global uncertainty.
Here are some key points about this correlation:
Short-term correlation: Bitcoin tends to show a moderate correlation with U.S. stock market indices, especially during market corrections or periods of extreme volatility. During such times, both the stock market and Bitcoin may react similarly due to broader macroeconomic factors, such as changes in interest rates, inflation concerns, or global financial crises.
Long-term correlation: Over a longer horizon, the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional stock indices is weaker. Bitcoin is often viewed as a separate asset class, with its own drivers, such as adoption, regulation, and network upgrades. For instance, Bitcoin may not always move in sync with equities during long-term market cycles, as its behavior is often driven more by supply-demand dynamics, institutional adoption, and sentiment in the crypto space.
Decoupling during market extremes: At times of market stress, such as during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic or economic downturns, Bitcoin initially behaved similarly to the stock market (correlating with a significant sell-off). However, once the recovery began, Bitcoin often exhibited more independent behavior, as it was influenced by other factors such as institutional investment, halving events, or investor sentiment.
Recent trends: Over the past couple of years, especially with the rise of institutional investments in Bitcoin (e.g., MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Bitcoin ETFs), Bitcoin has shown a closer relationship with traditional assets. Still, it often demonstrates greater volatility than traditional equities, suggesting a growing but still limited correlation.
In summary, the correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market is not constant and can change depending on economic conditions, market sentiment, and Bitcoin-specific factors. While they may move in the same direction during periods of significant market stress, Bitcoin remains largely a distinct asset class with its own market drivers.
Market up today/ No shock – BTC scrambles to surface and with it TruBelievers – but do look up Constitutional money.
U.S. Constitution and Money
The U.S. Constitution outlines the authority and limits regarding money and currency in several key sections:
Article I, Section 8 – Powers of Congress:
Grants Congress the power “to coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures.”
This section empowers Congress to mint coins and regulate the value of money in the United States. It does not, however, specify a particular form of money, such as paper money, leaving that to be determined through later legislation.
Article I, Section 10 – Restrictions on States:
This section prohibits states from “coining Money” or “making any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts.”
This is often cited as the basis for considering gold and silver as constitutional money, as it explicitly permits the use of precious metals for payments of debts within the states.
Constitutional Money in Practice
Historically, the U.S. dollar was based on a gold standard and silver standard, meaning the value of the dollar was directly tied to a specific quantity of gold or silver. Coins made of these metals were the primary form of money, and the U.S. Treasury issued paper money that could be exchanged for gold or silver.
However, this system evolved over time, particularly after key events such as:
The Coinage Act of 1792: This established the U.S. Mint and provided for the coining of money, primarily gold and silver coins, which could be used as legal tender.
The Gold Standard: For much of U.S. history, the U.S. dollar was backed by gold (and later silver). Under the Gold Standard, people could exchange paper currency for a fixed amount of gold, which gave the dollar tangible value.
The Abandonment of the Gold Standard: In 1933, during the Great Depression, President Franklin D. Roosevelt took the U.S. off the gold standard for domestic transactions, and in 1971, President Richard Nixon officially ended the dollar’s convertibility to gold for international transactions as well. This led to the establishment of fiat money, which is money that has value by government decree but is not backed by a physical commodity like gold or silver.
Modern Context
Today, fiat money (such as the U.S. dollar) is the primary form of currency in the U.S. It is not directly tied to any physical commodity (like gold or silver), but is instead valued based on the trust and authority of the government. While the U.S. Constitution originally allowed gold and silver to be used as money, the legal tender laws now recognize all U.S. currency—paper bills and coins—issued by the U.S. Treasury as valid money for all debts, public charges, taxes, and dues.
Constitutional Money Debate
There is an ongoing debate among some groups about returning to a gold or silver standard, or at least recognizing gold and silver coins as constitutional money. These groups argue that such a move would:
Protect against inflation caused by printing excessive fiat currency.
Reestablish a tangible backing for money, ensuring it holds intrinsic value.
However, this idea faces opposition due to concerns about the practicalities of managing a gold or silver-backed economy in the modern, complex global financial system.
Summary
In essence, constitutional money refers to money that is either directly authorized or implied by a country’s constitution. In the case of the U.S., this includes money that is backed by gold and silver, as initially authorized in the Constitution, though in modern times, fiat currency is the dominant form of legal tender. The concept also fuels ongoing debates about the potential return to a commodity-backed monetary system.
GU : begging you matey, the institutional juice all went to ETH (and, if still “in” they are stuck sub-3,000 (at 2,070 as I write). BTC is like Fidelity Magellan ish ~ E
Money ought to have embedded qi testing…
*speaking of mental* the folks for whom a position is a cult get really crazy when value gets cut in half. Chain will cohabitate with currency until a blur. Yet, most of the money, in tokens, isn’t in serious chain players. It’s buffoonery shit tokens. They are measured in ten thousandths of a penny. They, most, if not all, will never actually be worth a penny.
You Sir (TBS gone fishing) should definitely get help dude.
Got Dr. Copper?
Save your pennies.
Egor of the Ice ___
hopefully you realize eventually, …….someday, that your token commentary is identical to Urealls Bitcoin criticisms.
Should have bothered to look up any of the aforementioned tokens you would have seen some in $60-70 range today.
Anger and Cleopatra always arrive first – I am so used to it by now that I get concerned when it does come. Crypto Winter – cry inside being miserable 24/7 or go out and take advantage ?
Think the clear, clean air may do a fevered cabin brain good, I think.
The Bangles – Walk Like Cleopatra -https://youtu.be/Cv6tuzHUuuk?
TBS : you seem to take it personally. This is a financial position, not a religion, right? Look, it’s not like I can’t count. There have been tremendous gainers. But, the root principle isn’t good to go IMO. I wish you well with your passion, hobby, or … this is about money, hey? Good luck.
TBS : “… the clear, clean air may do a fevered cabin brain good …”
Oh, I spend at least an hour outdoors no matter the weather. I was just out in the fresh 31F air listening to the Kraken wake from slumber. We Michiganders dress for winter. But, dream of spring.
IceGor
_/)____
Oh look, the credit analysts have caught up with the UrbanSurvival discussions on AI effects:
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/13/ai-credit-markets.html?msockid=05243315e5e964753875241ee4af6565
Swiss credit monks came out to the entrance to their cave to issue their forecasts for the unwashed flatlanders.
In order for the all the data center build-outs to happen, credit must be diverted from real capital projects (and competing Ponzi memes) to fund data center AI server-length contests. And the data centers will justify their existence by screwing white collar workers. Back to the days of the early 80’s we go, where all projects were justified by manpower reduction. And of course, even if the manpower reductions don’t really materialize, the now AI MBA replacements will paper it all over, just like the flesh and blood MBA’s did in the 80’s, and ship any remaining wetware jobs offshore. And all of this will be rolling downhill out of your personal pocketbook. Meanwhile, good old Elon will start building orbital home nodes for the AI’s (ala Bill Gibson’s Neuromancer), so the peasants (meaning Ure readership) will not be able to contribute pitchforks and torches to the discussion.
I expect the token freaks to take it in the end as well. Buy and hold token hoarders better start hoarding the lubricants as well for the long dry one down the AI bottomless slide. Got KY, BCN?
For all the money they are putting into Data Centers … and their needed Power Plants they could actually rebuild and build out much of the ACTUAL MANUFACTURING that we have exported to China!!
Does Wall Street want that? NO!
Why? They can’t make as much money with basic manufacturing as they can with the high tech world since the Earnings would take longer to show up and the PEs would be one half, or less (MUCH less) of that they can get via the high tech world.
For all the talk and hand wringing ACTUALLY BUILDING NEW MANUFACTURING PLANTS in the US is NOT on the list of things to do, by either Wall Street, which has NO long term vision – 5 years is the most that they are willing to invest in – or the US Government.
Alas … China’s manufacturing domination is NOT decreasing, it is actually INCREASING … and soon as China moves into the commercial aircraft manufacturing world (they have already started, their big hold back at the moment is with jet engine technology) we will lose our last big export manufacturing industry (soon = 15 to 20 years in the heavy manufacturing arena, NOT Wall Street’s “soon” which is 3 years max)
“I expect the token freaks to take it in the end as well.”
Hmmmm
So you ignore historical price actions, ignore new technology, and are refusing to even look an at the new fangled internal combustion engine. A buggywhipper like Luddy-G. Must be quite the jungle inside Ure head area.
I couldnt give a flying fuck . Please note I have already been ringing the Token register.
My job was to inform of superior technology in Finance. I did that, see all posts ending in Buybuybuybuybuybuy…..
Now I inform of future agin, but this time spelling out the INFRASTRUCTURE it is all being BUILT On. It is an ON-GOING concern, as Firms learn the technology and how it works Best. I have been providing the Best in class infrastructure players as they become “most used” platforms. Its is growing and changing constantly.
I have a PROVEN track record – and aint NO ONE can come close to touching performance.
I am doing it again, which I know IS A GOOD DEED..VIRTUEOUS even.
I do realieze most readers severely lack VIRTUE, as evidenced by Negative commentary/attacks on the provided and in many ways “inside” information.
So yeah- Piss OFF Losers, U best get busy counting Ure losses from holding USD/UST and getting ready to pay Ure israHELL TAXes in April.
* KY is inferior lub, you need to up Ure game a lil.
You miss an iumportant fact Nvdia your core of blessed ai is worth more than all crypto combined – all of them – and hasn’t paid a dividend and all shareholders get is stock price appreciate – which – in a greed riddled house – is what happens brother
Did an update on the Nvidia drivers this morning. Good reminder.
really think the TBS would not be in on NVDA from the git go ? Think over 4000% gains – nasty LT cap gain.
the maker of the fastest badass video gaming chips on the market? Ya know the ones..that the Miners quickly adopted to power their mining rigs ?
NVDA stock has been a CONERNERSTONE position in all family accounts for years. In fact part of yesterday was spent scooping up more for my own self directed IRA account=not advice!
Again- I am simply providing critical and colorful Information that pertains souly to the build out of the Architecture NEEDED to bring all the promises of Crypto to fruition.
Tis pure narcissistic behavior to beat,slander, and attack a GIFT GIVER.
Consider U narcissistic haterz to be TRES FUCKED UP in da Head, hence calling me names/”crazy”. Iean if you all didnt get multiple clotshots, must have received deadly doses from SHEDDING of the mrna posion, thereby turning U into genetically defected disciples of the wef & yuval noah harrai. How else explain weakened Intellects ?
– “Crazy” just locked down a beautiful property On the ICW on Oak Island , NC. Yesterday.
*Special thanks & shoutout the sharp eyed Canuck who recommended looking at/consider Oak Island, NC.
Turned out 2 of my best friends growing up, both Vets with one being 20 yr Ranger, 5 yr USAID, 5 more yrs back in Active at AP Hill (Spec ForcesTrng Base) to teach the newbs – huge incentives to return, are both living in Oak Island -mainland NC. Turns out Oak Island is a hidden gem, south facing so you get both Sunrise and Sunsets. 1/3 Permanent, 1/3 Vacation Rentals, 1/3 part timers.
Have now set up housing so as to be able to avoid having to pay State Income Tax, plus enabling Wife to be close to Sun, DiL and soon to arrive new lil crumb snatcher.
TBS -” I may be crazy, but I aint Stupid!”
2 much for me all this . just rubbish and yada yada everywhere . its a joke . good luck with it . nothing nothing stops battle hardened bears
” Still, we remain fascinated – as always – with how the present period is locking into replay mode with the Great Depression peak. We have a Lindbergh type kidnapping, a Smoot-Hawley echo with Trump on Tariffs, the whole Prohibition thing and gangland killings with global cartels, and then an emergent drought.
The question isn’t IF we have hard times bearing down on us.
We think it’s more like “How much prep time remains for us?” ”
Panic creates opportunity. When the enemy panics on the battlefield the opposing force has the winning opportunity. When the markets panic it creates buying and selling opportunities., on a grande multi-billion dollar battle field., with no POW’s allowed. Blood-letting., just in a different form. Entire sectors of the economy can be wiped out in the matter of days without a single shot being fired., yet the aftermath, the devastation is often overwhelming., especially on an already fragile economy. , and that devastation, that overwhelming blow is always felt first and the hardest on the working class of people in that economy., for they are the ones that have built and labored to support, at a constant sacrifice, the very foundation that governments and institutions have worked so hard to destroy. Some deliberately., they just want to “see the world burn”., but the vast majority are out of ignorance, social isolation and callous greed.
With our hosts assessment of the socio-psychology of the roaring twenty running head long into disaster and our current society-models seemingly doing the exact same thing – in our own [ ignorant ] ways.., and if I may add – my own gut level feeling – I agree most strongly with his final thought: “How much prep-time remains for us?”
[ ‘Us’ being those here that can see the fuse burning and are trying to prepare for the ‘inevitable’ economic bitch-slap that will be heard around the world. ]
There seems to be only one major piece of the correlation of ‘then’ and ‘now’ missing.
What is the equivalent to the digital asset, tokenization, bitcoin craze today, to anything in the roaring twenties?
Ponxi
There would be a temptation to equate today’s AI with the depression era radio and fledgling TV companies (remember RCA?), but other than newness, I think the comparison ends. I’m thinking AI corresponds more closely to the rise of totalatarian states in that era; we just haven’t seen that last shoe drop yet. It’s not that I fear any particular of the electronic bogey men, it’s that their composite compulsion to monopolize financial and production resources will bury all of us. Think a Nakita that never sleeps, has no fear, never backs down. and is more self-centered than any infant. If you are in debt, you are it’s competitor. If you are not employed serving its needs, then you serve no purpose.
dLynn : limiting to the ’20s not. But, the list is long where for some reason humans assigned value, often running the bulls right off the cliff. Tulips, Pet Rocks, Baseball Cards, Beanie Babies. Flowers, rocks, cardboard cigarette pack stiffeners and trashy plush dolls caught a bid. My son has Pokemon Cards. I keep telling him to sell them. Flings run their course. Every time. _E_
dLynn …
The Florida Land Bubble was HUGE in the 1920’s, usually self financed by the sellers so banks were only tangentially involved … even as the farm sector land values totally collapsed due to both mechanization and crop prices being cut by 1/2 to 3/4 from the amounts farmers in the US received during WW1 (when we were feeding much of the British World as well as France) (my grandfather lost 5000 acres of productive farm land in that collapse, NOT ranch land but actual fertile crop growing farm land).
In addition the automobile and tractors were taking the US by storm, as well as that new fangled invention called “Radio” … and the parts of the economy involved with that new technology and their related stock market values were going gang busters.
(My dad told me a number of times Powell Crosley wanted my granddad to be his 50/50 partner in exchange for the financing he needed, but granddad was losing so much money on his farm adventures that he was more than a bit cash short, why 5000 acres went to the bank, so in reality he probably couldn’t finance Powell Crosley though my dad tried to convince him to. Alas the family while not left destitute didn’t reach the ranks of the “Super Rich” of the later part of that era!! LOL – Damn, I could have palled around with the Rockefellers etc. growing up except except except LOL)
Point is Speculative Fever ran amuck in the 1920’s .. and everybody BELIEVED! Only the lead up to the 2000 collapse probably matches it.
Today is an echo of the late 1990’s but not nearly as strong on the speculative side though today we are much more debt burdened … ala think of the farmers going into the 1920’s when a huge percentage of farmers went bankrupt as the 1920’s crop pricing collapse ground on and on and on with not even a twinkling of a recovery even as ICE vehicles and radio were on a tear.
future casting,,,
short story,, long.
as cycles repeat,
but not quite the same
Eye of the Universe – Mandelbrot Fractal Zoom
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCpLWbHVNhk
last evening I heard the steam whistle of a old locomotive of Union Pacific,
an annual event in this area, being the old steamer to/through town
UP is headquarted in Omaha,, read of a sink hole opening up near the Aksarben area in Omaha
https://x.com/BGatesIsaPyscho/status/2026609633423450514?s=20
Aksarben is Nebraska spelled backwards, satanic symbolism
this morning I read about former Gov Bob Kerry resigning from a board, because of being mentioned in Epstein files
https://www.ketv.com/article/nebraska-bob-kerrey-resigns-board-epstein-files/70484606
Aksarben was a horse race track,
https://www.aksarbenvillage.com/map I wonder if tunnels were involved and do not forget about Boys Town and Offutt airforce base
and the book,,
The Franklin Coverup
Wow
met this cat back in the day, LTC Shauflebergers funeral – pretrainee assigned Driver duty..F-ing passengers were guys like Marchinko – Demo Dickie, and assorted other legendary SEALs. Some of the most thrilling interactions I ever had was with these guys. Record holder for Hand Kills, and record holder for overall Kills, team stats.
One was hand 2 hand combat instructor/3rd Phase, The other, “Saigon Charlie” was my OG boss as a pre-trainee, got there early.
He in turn transferred my assignment to only current master blaster SEAL in the teams, MasterChief was in charge of entire Marine Mammal Program, which is where I was “stashed” for awhile..feeding Dolphins & Sea Lions like a seaworld bitch.
Anywho Bob is a LEGEND in the teams, Medal Of Honor – Vietnam, and a real live Hero, and absolutely one of the last people on the planet to harm a Child .
And it for insights like this that (thank you for your service) you are not in the epenalty box.
you just all remember nobody rings a bell
BS – you have bellringer written all over Ure face.
They rang the bell this AM @ 9:00 AM sharp..and SPY is now down 1 % or so.
I think Ure Ears might be flapping, cause I clearly heard the bell on CNBC this AM.
Elephant in a Tree – https://youtu.be/TXqd5d-zHMQ?si=X7cJ0165M_VqclbZ
crypto pump day . wake up to yourselves
All I know right now is it’s gonna be lightning, thunder and rain for half a day, rain that has flooded inland to scary levels. Here, we plan on checking all the hatches for seal, be ready for the downpour, and be sure there is a good book handy. Just read Divergent by Veronica Roth, from around 2011. I think she was 24 at the time. Also was made into a pretty good film in 2014. It’s a very perceptive treatise on the division of society (lots of parallels to today) and how evil is always there to screw up anything. It was an absorbing story and even got the Missus sucked in, which is unusual, since her reading tends towards Anastasia and the like.
The film kept us up past bedtime.
Stiks
Sounds like a good excuse to do a cockpit shower (then recycle gray water to clean scuppers). A good book. Nice. Enjoy the boat wash regardless. _E_
Speaking of predictions – who has Turkey invades Iran?
Turkey evaluating potential measures in event of Iran-US conflict, source says
“Turkey is actively preparing contingency plans that include the possibility of invading parts of Iranian territory if a power vacuum emerges in Tehran. The primary objective of such a move would be to prevent large numbers of refugees from crossing into Turkey, according to sources familiar with the matter. “
It’s a vicious, violent world out there, folks., and it can happen anywhere, at any time. Please. Learn to defend yourself. Physically and mentally prepared. No one is coming to save you. No court order is going to stop a bad guy, and no piece of paper is going to deflect a bullet., or a knife. No law ever written has stopped a crime. In the barrio, or an upscale neighborhood – it’s all on you and no one else.
thanks for the reminder. have been planning to go punch holes in targets. the WX is right tomorrow (55F). my hands get so cold things like this are difficult (I will not discharge a round with gloves). stay frosty _E_
the trigger finger is exposable, but pricey $60
https://connecticutshotgun.co/cold-weather-hunting-shooting-gloves/
Elaine and I use wscissors – but what do a couple of hicks (or hick and hickedtte) know?
Better to be judged by 12 instead of carried by 6.
Yo George,
I wish I could think and operate in more mathematical terms. Did not progress past algebra and trig, never made it to calculus. Left that to the North Avenue Trade School. However, your treatise sounds to me to be very
analagous to the Black-Scholles Equations for valuing options bur more broadly applied. Very interesting.
And a belated Happy Birthday!
My High School BFF wished me a welcome into the last quarter. But wth Life Extension Hacks, Who Knows?
great point – see around the ranch this morning when published
Bill, check out my post here:
https://urbansurvival.com/market-informatics-thursday-limits-of-calculus/#comment-214954
You made it to calculus before you were two years old.
I had so much trouble with it, until I realized:
Get a basketball and take a set-shot. Your brain does a computation which involves the amount of force you exert with your frontal deltoid, bicep, wrist, each knuckle and each finger, based on the input you get from your eyes, the estimate of the weight of the ball, and buffered by previous experience. from taking set-shots.
This is two conventional chalkboards full of differential and (mostly) integral calculus equations. Written out, it is impressive as hell, and daunting, beyond belief. When, however, you stop to realize your mind did all these equations in the space of (no more than) 3/100 of a second, without a blackboard, your realization becomes absolutely mind-boggling.
“Integral calculus” is the mathematical equivalent of the word “estimate.” The more information or fewer variables you have, the closer your estimate becomes to “exact.”
It took me years to come to that simple realization. Once I did, “calculus” lost its mystique and I lost my fear of it, and just let it happen…
UPDATE
5,100 Iranians in Silicon Valley signed a letter demanding:
Immediate US support for the Iranian people.
An end to the Islamic Republic.
A transition of power to Reza Pahlavi.
https://x.com/kooshiar/status/2026751960825667585?s=20
116 C-17s (and now, a wing of C-5Ms)
Id like to apologise to reader Tagen. i was an asshole toward you. it was wrong to treat you that way. *bows.
i am rediculous at times. my girlfriend can confirm that. lol
the reason why i entertain the outlandish is because there is many examples of the outlandish being the truth.
if you said in 1995, our politicians and movie stars etc etc are eating babies and satanic pedofiles.
or Bill gates the founder of the new computer software windows 95 in the future will team with a known child trafficer named Jeffery Epstine and plan a world wide pandemic in the year 2020. then sell a harmful vaccine to the massesa
it would be outlandish! preposterous! rediculous!
but we know that as fact now.
to quite George Ure back in i think it was 2007 ish who said to the effect
“I may be crazy but that doesnt make me inaccurate.”
and George has said some pretty outlandish! preposterous! rediculous! things we have found out to be True later.
so i entertain the outlandish! preposterous! rediculous! because we may find out, its the truth!
but i was an asshole in my reply and i didnt need to be.
i am currently too busy to be on the net much. life is good. all is welll.
*****I will note: right after “The Time is at Hand” verse 3, from the Book Revelations to John. popped in my brain, i was watching some A.I. video thing made about the Epstine Files. a short movie version. at the end of it,
Epstine looks at his wrist watch, and all the power goes out accross the US, a billboard shows a cyber attack on the US. it shows BB pulling the plug on the power. israel.
and i thought The Time is at Hand.
i stood back, walked in the living room and sat down. turned on the TV and an adevertisment of Trump Selling Wrist watches came on. the time on those fancy watches is 10:10
and i heard it again. The Time is at Hand.
10/10/2026 Big Cyber attack on the US, The US goes black out. like the blocks that ommit the names on the epstine files. Big nation wide power outage. israel is responcible for it. The Time is At Hand.
if that seems outlandish! preposterous! rediculous! ????
no more most of the shit you are learning is Truth today.
i have to get to work.
I Win with God within.
“the time on those fancy watches is 10:10”
The tradition of setting analog watches to 10:10 originated because of an advertising gimmick. Watches back in the day had their brand name at the top. Setting the hands to 10:10 framed the name brand, calling attention to it. When some watches came out with the brand name on the bottom, the hands on those watches were set to 8:20 for the same reason. Commercial photographers have used that old gimmick forever, even carrying over to the digital age where there are no hands to frame the brand name.