Our first conversation tidbit today is really a lot more interesting than the run-of-the-mill, daily installment of political chicanery and spin by the co-opted corporate media. We prefer to study real data which suggests that yes, there really is reason for concern about the near-term future of the economy. Besides market futures being not-far from flat … Read More
House democrats are “Taking America Argentina.” A not-too-obscure (we hope) reference to the roll of Death Squads in places long ago and far away like Argentina. As Wikipedia explains them: “A death squad is an armed group that conducts extrajudicial killings or forced disappearances of persons for the purposes such as political repression, assassinations, torture, genocide, … Read More
The Jobs Report in a second. This is more important, I think…and we will have more detailed view this weekend for our Peoplenomics.com subscribers. Question is “When does a crash begin?” Our Aggregate Market view looked like this at 6:15 AM Central today: If this outcome is going to happen, our research projects the washout … Read More
1. Does Dorian Jump? That is the big questions everyone in Florida is asking. Here’s the latest projection for our cone-heads: Elaine and I have cancelled plans to go wind surfing Lake Okachobee this weekend. Gotta slow down when you get older,.. you know…we’ll leave those kind of things to the “Likes-deficient” on FB. As … Read More
President Trump is barking up the wrong tree in calling for the Fed to lower rates a full 1%. This morning, therefore, a short discussion of how and why he’s wrong and what it means on what could be a “Turnaround Tuesday” to the downside, if animal spirits of markets should turn today. In the … Read More
Before we get into it, a short story about firefighting because it sets the table for this morning’s outlooks. Back when he was still alive, I asked my dad “When you go to a fire, when do you make the call for back-up. Like calling a second response to a house fire?” His explanation was … Read More
EmpSit: Employment Situation Report A couple of hours before the open this morning, Dow Futures were down a bit more than 30 points as the global market is awaiting on US data to see how this week will wind-up. So, here’s the data and there may be a MAGA reality here we need to consider: … Read More
The late Washington-state Senator Henry M. Jackson told me – in about 1970 or 71 “Keep your eye on the Straight of Hormuz.” When it closes, the world will get involved in a Middle East war that could quickly escalate to global and nuclear. Fast forward to overnight: “Two oil tankers struck in suspected attacks … Read More
This being Friday. it’s lawn and garden day around here, so we will be posting this morning’s report in pieces. By doing this, I can get my lawn mowed (and maybe edged) before breakfast and the market open. Or not… Jobs Report Just out from the Labor Department: “The unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent … Read More
It’s a morning where not a ton of creative is required on my part. It’s just a pile of economic news releases and some of these are bound to matter. We can go through it bay agency. Bureau of Economic Analysis has a new GDP annd Corporate Profits report out. Here are the sing-along lyrics: … Read More
“Nested Bayesian Investment Analysis” is our upcoming Peoplenomics.com report for this weekend and I wanted to mention how it arose since how an “old man in the woods” can come up with new ideas may be of interest. As I have explained previously, I have designed and use something I call a light crown. It … Read More
The press release is more eloquent that me: NEW YORK, APRIL 30, 2019 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for February 2019 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. has continued … Read More
Raise your hand, quick, if you know where the most famous statue of legendary wood-cutter Paul Bunyon and his Blue Ox Babe are located. (Hmmm…no hands going up…) Well, this is one of the reasons why Ham Radio is such a cool hobby during times when the End of the World (EotW) is in sight. … Read More