Fresh Housing Data

The press release is more eloquent that me:

NEW YORK, APRIL 30, 2019 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for February 2019 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. has continued to slow.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.0% annual gain in February, down from 4.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.6%, down from 3.1% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 3.0% year-over-year gain, down from 3.5% in the previous month.
Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In February, Las Vegas led the way with a 9.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Phoenix with a 6.7% increase, and Tampa with a 5.4% increase. Only one of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending February 2019 versus the year ending January 2019.

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2% in February. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both reported 0.2% increases for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.3% month-over-month increase in February. The 10-City and the 20-City Composites both posted 0.2% month-over-month increases. In February, 14 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 17 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
“The pace of increases for home prices continues to slow,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Homes began their climb in 2012 and accelerated until late 2013 when annual increases reached double digits. Subsequently, increases slowed until now when the National Index is up 4% in the last 12 months. Sales of existing single family homes have recovered since 2010 and reached their peak one year ago in February 2018. Home sales drifted down over the last year except for a one-month pop in February 2019. Sales of new homes, housing starts, and residential investment had similar weak trajectories over the last year. Mortgage rates are down one-half to three-quarters of a percentage point since late 2018.”

The most important chart of the press release, in our view, is the national prices chart:

Someone familiar with Elliott waves might see 2007 as a top, then a wave 1 down into 2010 and then a wave 2 up.  Question is:  Is it done?

After the data, the Dow was up, S&P and techs were down.  We’d be gambling to suggest a lower closer today, but it wouldn’t be a completely irrational outlook.

5 thoughts on “Fresh Housing Data”

  1. With all the intelligence out ther I ask myself sometimes why was Anadarko Petroleum underestimated for such long time, and what motivated Bayer to buy Monsanto?

    Speaking of intelligence, there seems to be something lacking. Never mind ojur monetary system!! They are all going to the same schools that just pass grades, or so it seems.

    • The oversimplified answer for Bayer is to look at the political and business climate at the time (mid 2016). Monsanto was looking for tax savings and this played like an inversion for them. Bayer was looking at the “green revolution” and the resulting regulations and restrictions proposed in Germany. This made them ready to open the door to at least the threat to re-domiciling. Neither side expected that glyphosate was to become to Bayer what asbestos became for Halliburton.

      Regarding Anadarko, look back to the Western Gas acquisition and resultant balance sheet. By the time that cleared out, on came the oil bust where potential suitors were busy dealing with their own. Couple that with the wildfire of interest in the Permian and you find the answer to the “Why now?”

      • Thank you, makes sense what you’re saying.
        However, these were only wo examples that I’ve pointed out, but I see too many surprises that shouldn’t have been surprises at all. ;-(

      • You do know that Bayer is one of the leading researchers and develpers of Nano tech? Right? Bayer owns several large nano tech facilities and companies.

  2. George I want to pass along a health aid that has been a real godsend for me. About 3 years ago had to get hearing aids. Hearing doesn’t get better and mine seemed to be going on down even with the appliances. About 5 months ago started taking a supplement that has gradually gotten me to about 80% of prior. Now am at the point that each day is a little improvement that I can notice. I am using the formula: Advanced Hearing Formula from Advanced Bionutrional. Seems like $25 a month for getting better is an improvement over appliances that don’t get you well.

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